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U.S. Dollar Index Futures

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DX1! trade ideas

DXY General Analisysthe markets are still all inversely related to DXY, so it's useful to see how it performs, whether or not it holds 110 on September 28, October 13 and October 21 there were huge dollar sales, higher at the time of the covid highlighting positivity on speculative markets, which could continue if the DXY does not hold 110 although in my opinion, we are still in an uptrend dollar, a correction up to 105 and 100 is not impossible, we are still against the trend and we must be careful to buy speculative markets, the major trend remains bearish on nasdaq, s&p, DJ and crypto and therefore bullish on the dollar but for a few weeks / months it could be profitable to go against the dollar
ICEUS:DX1!
by dan68608
DXY EXTREME BEARISH DIVERGENCE > ABOUT TO COME STRAIGHT DOWN!DXY Has been on a tear but I think thats about to end and I think it will end very quickly. There is multiple very strong bearish divergences on the weekly, across multiple indicators showing that a major move down is coming. I think we have reached the top for the DXY for a while and its about to tank. Dont know whats around the corner as far as news but something big is about to come out thats going to kill the DXY. This is not trading or financial advice this is just my opinion. If you apprecaite my work please consider giving this chart a boost and follow me for more updates. Thank you and good luck my friends.
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by Bitgolder
2
Developing A Dollar Bearish Strategy Using The Scientific MethodShould I Short USD? Yes or No? If yes, then how? If no, then why? The question is simple, but the answer may be complicated. Therefore, we will dive into the macroeconomics of the American economy, with consideration given the most significant factors influencing the value of USD. > OBSERVATIONS 1) Since March 2020, USD appears to have lost approximately 13% of it's market value. 2) Since March 2020, USD supply increased by $9.1 Trillion (COVID stimulus). datalab.usaspending.gov 3) Congress was recently asked to approve an additional $1.9 Trillion (COVID stimulus). context-cdn.washingtonpost.com > RESEARCH Part A: Three major external factors contribute to the value of USD... www.investopedia.com 1) Supply and demand: Exporting American products and services creates demand for USD, because foreign investors must exchange their currency for USD, in order to complete the transaction. Note: decreased exports = decreased demand = decreased USD value Note: decreased stock/bond issuance = decreased demand = decreased USD value 2) Sentiment and market psychology: Rising unemployment weakens the economy, reduces income, and slows consumption. If the US economy appears weak, foreign investors may sell-off their US securities, in favor of exchanging back to their national currency. Note: decreased employment = decreased consumption = decreased USD value Note: negative sentiment = decreased foreign investment = decreased USD value 3) Technicals: The release of government statistics (payroll data, GDP data, etc.) may help quantify whether the economy is strong or weak. Historical patterns generated by cyclical support/resistance levels and technical indicators also contribute to the movement of USD. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total value of all the finished goods and services produced (in this case, within American borders) www.investopedia.com Note: decreased employment = decreased GDP = decreased USD value Part B: Four major internal tools (utilized by the Fed) contribute to the value of USD... www.federalreserve.gov 1) Discount rate: The interest rate reserve banks charge commercial banks for short-term loans. 2) Reserve requirements: The portions of deposits that banks must hold in cash in vaults or on deposit. 3) Open market operations: The buying and selling of U.S. government securities (T-bills, bonds, and notes). 4) Interest on Reserves: The interest paid on excess reserves held at reserve banks. > HYPOTHESIS Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is increasing money supply. Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is maintaining interest rates near zero. Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is maintaining reserve requirements at zero. Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is repurchasing government bonds on the open market. > EXPERIMENT Part A: Build a diversified dollar bearish portfolio. Include dollar bearish securities and commodities (FXC, FXE, UDN, GLD, IAU, DBC, DBP) Include International stock and emerging markets ETFs (open to all suggestions for this) Include foreign currencies (GBP, CAD, AUD, CNY, CHF, KRW, JPY, EUR) Include crypto currencies (BTC, ETH, LTC, and especially the DeFi sector) > RESULTS Pending... follow me for a monthly update to see if I get rekt, much love!
Editors' picks
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn13791118
40
Here is the deal with the USD...UP... within the next three weeks. First, it has completed the Cup & Handle pattern, a very reliable pattern. Now on the breakout and the projection is mapped (dotted aroow line). Second, technical indicators of the MACD are bullish, and continue to support an uptrend. There is no bearish divergence observed. Third, the other set of technical indicators for money flow, and volume are also supporting the continued upside, with no indication of bearish divergence. Finally, the weekly TD Sequential Sell Setup just completed (green box with black background), with a small kink... that the 8th and 9th candle highs are not higher than the 7th candle high. According to TD Sequential rules, we can expect that at some point in the next three candles (or so), the 7th candle high would be taken out and exceeded in an attempt to Perfect the TD Sequential Sell Setup. So... expect the USD to end up in the range around the white ellipse. Perhaps then we might see some real signs of the USD abating its bull run? Note that with a massive bull run on the USD, markets are being affected badly, and money flow is unusually into the USD (exiting most other markets). Furthermore, the longer this stretches, the worse the unwinding becomes with commodities when the USD retraces. It is like an overstretched rubber band, and its dicey before we know who would release it first... the tension followed by the release of that tension. Oof...
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by Auguraltrader
DXY: decreasing volumesin the last 4 pushes, as is normal in an uptrend, the prices in the rising phases have been supported by upward volumes, the last push denotes a first buy / sell technical change, and the current upward push shows downward volumes , the first sign of weakness of the dollar, if volumes do not rise today and tomorrow we could see resistance on the last high. this means that all speculative markets could see a new upward push (including gold) obviously relative bullish push (of a few days) .. the major trend remains short, they are the first phases of accumulation
ICEUS:DX1!
by dan68608
USDX Futures Contract AnalysisThis is the U.S Dollar Futures contract expiring in December. I usually use this in Forex but lately the crypto market has been moving like the Forex market so i might as well drop it in here so you can use this information to analyse for the 4th Quarter of the year. Below the chart, there are 2 panes (the 1st pane indicates the Commitment of Traders report and the second pane indicates the institutional Open interest) For the 1st pane, focus on the red line which indicates the Commercial Banks. We can see that the red line is increasing which indicates that Commercial Banks (The big players in the market) are increasing their Net Long positions on the Dollar. For the 2nd Pane, the purple line indicates the Open interest within the market. We can see that the previous 2 weeks, the Open interest dropped drastically. What does this mean to a Smart Money Trader? The commercial banks are doing something called Short Covering (simply said, they are using this opportunity to close their short positions by opening Long positions). Now that I have explained what the 2 panes are implying... Look at the chart of the Weekly USDX futures contract, price has reached the Bullish Orderblock. What do you think will happen next 😏 ? www.barchart.com
ICEUS:DXZ2022Long
by Evaliste
2