Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #17 (short read)Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #17
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What is a custodian? -
A custodian is a financial institution that holds customers' assets or securities for safekeeping to prevent them from being stolen or lost. The custodian may hold equities, bonds, derivatives, or other assets in electronic or physical form on behalf of its customers. Custodians could offer related financial services such as account management and reporting, transaction settlement, and compliance related to anti-money laundering and tax regulations.
What is an exchange? -
An exchange is a venue where buyers and sellers trade equities, bonds, derivatives, and other tradable assets. Exchanges are often regulated by financial regulators and provide liquidity, which give market participants the ability to buy and sell assets at a fair market value.
What is a financial regulator? -
Governments have various agencies in place given the responsibility to regulate and oversee financial markets and companies participating in the financial system. These agencies each have a specific range of duties and responsibilities that enable them to act independently of each other while they work to accomplish similar objectives. For example, in the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has oversight of the securities industry (stocks and shares), whereas the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates and oversees derivative markets (futures, swaps, and options).
RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CORPORATES AND INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS -
Common application of financial market instruments for managing risk and opportunities.
Position and Risk Management
Risk management is the responsibility of market participants designed to limit risk exposures that specifically applies to the participants financial profile in the market.
The financial profile of a participant may include their role in the financial market or the amount of capital under their responsibility to be managed in the market, and therefore the risk variables that each would need to identify may be unique.
For both corporate and individual investors, the market to trade would be a key variable to clearly state and support with reasons for trading or investing. Reasons for selecting one market over another could include price volatility, liquidity, daily volume traded, size of the minimum price increment, and value of the minimum price increment. Comparing these variables between markets will help decide the suitability and/or risk of each.
For example, if Mini-Brent Crude Oil futures (BM) moves around $2.00 per day (or 2 points) and a point is worth $100, a trader might experience a $200 fluctuation in their account balance for one day. Another example is the U.S Dollar / Singapore Dollar (USDSGD), which could move 70 pips or more per day and trading a standard lot size with each pip worth $10, a $700 fluctuation could be expected for one day.
Market participants may also manage their risk through the size of their positions. The larger their position size, the greater is their exposure and the smaller their position size their exposure is lower. Investors should determine the risk that would result from various position sizes and select the size that ensures that their risk limit is not exceeded. Finally, setting stops with a specified loss amount provides protection if the market does not move in the desired direction. It helps to prevent creating a loss scenario which is larger than an account can handle.
TRADDICTIV · Research Team
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Disclaimer:
We do not provide investment advice, nor provide any personalized investment recommendations and/or advice in making a decision to trade. Before you start trading, please make sure you have considered your entire financial situation, including financial commitments and you understand that trading is highly speculative and that you could sustain significant losses.
DX1! trade ideas
Elliott Wave View: Dollar Index (DXY) Has Resumed HigherShort term Elliott Wave view suggests correction from 9.28.2022 high ended at 109.53 as wave (4). Internal subdivision of wave (4) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 9.28.2022 high, wave W ended at 110.055 and wave X ended at 113.942. Index then resumes lower in wave Y to 109.53 and this completed wave (4) in higher degree. Dollar Index has turned higher in wave (5) but it still needs to break above previous peak on 9.28.2022 at 114.78 to rule out a double correction.
Up from wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 111.78 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 110.42. Index then resumes higher again and wave ((iii)) should end soon after a few more highs. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from 11.3.2022 low before the rally resumes in wave ((v)). After wave ((v)) ends, the Index should complete wave 1 of (5). It should then pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from 10.27.2022 low in larger degree 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes again. Near term, as far as pivot at 109.53 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside. Potential target for wave (5) higher is 123.6 inverse retracement of wave (4) at 114.78.
20 REASON FOR SHORT DOLLER INDEX1 Structure analysis time frame DAILY
2 target time frame :DAILY
3 Current Move : IMPULSE
4 Entry Time Frame : H4
4.1 Entry TF Structure: BEARISH
4.2 entry move : RETRACEMENT
5 Suppot resistence base : H1 ORDER BLOCK BLOCK
6 FIB: DISCOUNTES AREA
7 candle Pattern: MOMENTUM ENGULFING
8 Chart Pattern: RISING WEDGE BREAKOUT
9 Volume : DRIED
10 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: SIDEWAYS
11 Volatility measure bollinger bands: POSSIABLE DIVERGENCE MOVE
12 strength ADX: BEARISH
13 Sentiment ROC: STRONG BUT ITS A DAILY CORRECTION
14 final comment : GOING DOWN FOR A FINAL TARGET
15 : decision SELL
16 Entry: 110.540
17 Stop losel: 111.090
18 Take profit: 108.260
19 Risk to reward Ratio: 1:4
Excepted Duration : 4 DAYS
Dollar Index managed to stay within consolidationThe bearish movement of the United States Dollar Index was extended last week and was poised for a reversal. Supported by the 110.0 level key support region, the Dollar retraced some of its loss but was unable to push higher from the minor resistance at 110.885 region. If price managed to push pass 110.885, we are likely to see the Dollar push towards 111.665 region while if price breakout of the 110.0 support region, we could have a potential reversal (bearish confirmation) of the Dollar.
US DOLLAR INDEXHELLO EVEYONE
My analyse is that dxy must go up for a hidden divergence in 4h timeframe
Today we have a important news such as unemploymet claims which i expect
Less than 214
Because the trend is switching the DXY wont record a new high
Iam human and i have mistakes . if my analyse got wrong(low possibility)
the DXY will falls and Gold goes up to the sky
DXY General Analisysthe markets are still all inversely related to DXY, so it's useful to see how it performs, whether or not it holds 110
on September 28, October 13 and October 21 there were huge dollar sales, higher at the time of the covid
highlighting positivity on speculative markets, which could continue if the DXY does not hold 110
although in my opinion, we are still in an uptrend dollar, a correction up to 105 and 100 is not impossible, we are still against the trend and we must be careful to buy speculative markets, the major trend remains bearish on nasdaq, s&p, DJ and crypto
and therefore bullish on the dollar
but for a few weeks / months it could be profitable to go against the dollar
DXY EXTREME BEARISH DIVERGENCE > ABOUT TO COME STRAIGHT DOWN!DXY Has been on a tear but I think thats about to end and I think it will end very quickly. There is multiple very strong bearish divergences on the weekly, across multiple indicators showing that a major move down is coming. I think we have reached the top for the DXY for a while and its about to tank. Dont know whats around the corner as far as news but something big is about to come out thats going to kill the DXY. This is not trading or financial advice this is just my opinion. If you apprecaite my work please consider giving this chart a boost and follow me for more updates. Thank you and good luck my friends.
Developing A Dollar Bearish Strategy Using The Scientific MethodShould I Short USD? Yes or No?
If yes, then how? If no, then why?
The question is simple, but the answer may be complicated.
Therefore, we will dive into the macroeconomics of the American economy, with consideration given the most significant factors influencing the value of USD.
> OBSERVATIONS
1) Since March 2020, USD appears to have lost approximately 13% of it's market value.
2) Since March 2020, USD supply increased by $9.1 Trillion (COVID stimulus).
datalab.usaspending.gov
3) Congress was recently asked to approve an additional $1.9 Trillion (COVID stimulus).
context-cdn.washingtonpost.com
> RESEARCH
Part A: Three major external factors contribute to the value of USD...
www.investopedia.com
1) Supply and demand:
Exporting American products and services creates demand for USD, because foreign investors must exchange their currency for USD, in order to complete the transaction.
Note: decreased exports = decreased demand = decreased USD value
Note: decreased stock/bond issuance = decreased demand = decreased USD value
2) Sentiment and market psychology:
Rising unemployment weakens the economy, reduces income, and slows consumption. If the US economy appears weak, foreign investors may sell-off their US securities, in favor of exchanging back to their national currency.
Note: decreased employment = decreased consumption = decreased USD value
Note: negative sentiment = decreased foreign investment = decreased USD value
3) Technicals:
The release of government statistics (payroll data, GDP data, etc.) may help quantify whether the economy is strong or weak. Historical patterns generated by cyclical support/resistance levels and technical indicators also contribute to the movement of USD.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total value of all the finished goods and services produced (in this case, within American borders)
www.investopedia.com
Note: decreased employment = decreased GDP = decreased USD value
Part B: Four major internal tools (utilized by the Fed) contribute to the value of USD...
www.federalreserve.gov
1) Discount rate:
The interest rate reserve banks charge commercial banks for short-term loans.
2) Reserve requirements:
The portions of deposits that banks must hold in cash in vaults or on deposit.
3) Open market operations:
The buying and selling of U.S. government securities (T-bills, bonds, and notes).
4) Interest on Reserves:
The interest paid on excess reserves held at reserve banks.
> HYPOTHESIS
Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is increasing money supply.
Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is maintaining interest rates near zero.
Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is maintaining reserve requirements at zero.
Shorting USD will be profitable because the Fed is repurchasing government bonds on the open market.
> EXPERIMENT
Part A: Build a diversified dollar bearish portfolio.
Include dollar bearish securities and commodities (FXC, FXE, UDN, GLD, IAU, DBC, DBP)
Include International stock and emerging markets ETFs (open to all suggestions for this)
Include foreign currencies (GBP, CAD, AUD, CNY, CHF, KRW, JPY, EUR)
Include crypto currencies (BTC, ETH, LTC, and especially the DeFi sector)
> RESULTS
Pending... follow me for a monthly update to see if I get rekt, much love!
$dxy123.250 FULL retrace soon to be complete on 200 day from Volcker Days.
Look at the Fibonacci BLACKHOLE gap.
I see a potential Gap up on DXY and a MAJOR GAP DOWN on $SPX next 21 to 25 days.
Market is finished. Negative Yields will need to go more negative to pay for the reverse repo of staggering Debt.
Hold on tight...
I see negative Yield on 2s and 10s at -4.50 to -6.60 Percent
You've see NOTHING yet! I assure you!
Here is the deal with the USD...UP... within the next three weeks.
First, it has completed the Cup & Handle pattern, a very reliable pattern. Now on the breakout and the projection is mapped (dotted aroow line).
Second, technical indicators of the MACD are bullish, and continue to support an uptrend. There is no bearish divergence observed.
Third, the other set of technical indicators for money flow, and volume are also supporting the continued upside, with no indication of bearish divergence.
Finally, the weekly TD Sequential Sell Setup just completed (green box with black background), with a small kink... that the 8th and 9th candle highs are not higher than the 7th candle high. According to TD Sequential rules, we can expect that at some point in the next three candles (or so), the 7th candle high would be taken out and exceeded in an attempt to Perfect the TD Sequential Sell Setup.
So... expect the USD to end up in the range around the white ellipse.
Perhaps then we might see some real signs of the USD abating its bull run?
Note that with a massive bull run on the USD, markets are being affected badly, and money flow is unusually into the USD (exiting most other markets). Furthermore, the longer this stretches, the worse the unwinding becomes with commodities when the USD retraces. It is like an overstretched rubber band, and its dicey before we know who would release it first... the tension followed by the release of that tension. Oof...