DX1! trade ideas
Where The USD is Heading & The Truth About China's Trade War!I know this may be a shock, but this long-term chart of the dollar suggests that the greenback may be setting up for massive gains in value, over the next 15 years or so. This chart is full of bullish formations. Let's start with the largest of the formations, which is the descending wedge (in black.) You can see that since these futures contracts went live in 1985, the dollar has been forming this massive descending wedge. That's nearly 35 years spent forming this pattern — amazing. In case you didn't know, descending wedges are bullish chart patterns, and the descending wedge here is enormous.
The next largest pattern is a massive cup and handle pattern (in blue.) So far, it is a textbook cup and handle pattern. You can see that price is inside of the handle right now, and could remain there for another year or two. What's even more interesting, is that the handle and the top of the falling wedge are converging in the same area. So, if price breaks out above the falling wedge, that will be a very bullish indication that the cup and handle could be setting up for a breakout as well. Now, if we look across the exact top of the cup and handle, we can see that it corresponds to a lateral resistance level at 104 (red dashes.) As you can see, that level has acted as major support and resistance in the past. So, assuming these bullish patterns break to the upside, we can expect powerful surges higher in response, since these levels have stood as resistance for so long.
The next pattern is the rising channel/wedge. I would say that this pattern is more of a channel than a wedge, but it is slightly closing toward the end. Regardless, it's rising to the upside, suggesting that price will continue to rise as it remains inside of that formation.
Assuming a breakout occurs from these patterns in the future, we can expect the USD to soar 40% or more in value. Obviously, that is contingent on a breakout, and the breakout hasn't occurred yet. A strong US dollar is good for US consumer purchasing power, but it isn't good for US companies who export products, or companies who conduct business overseas. So, it could have an overall positive effect, enticing companies to remain stateside.
However, some companies wouldn't have that option, if their business relies on foreign markets. This is why our response to China's trade war is critical. If the USD rises in the future, as this chart projects, we will need a stronger advantage in global trade, so that the US consumer can benefit while US companies are protected with trade renegotiations. Don't let the media lie to you, and tell you that America shouldn't be engaging China with tariffs. This isn't "Trump's Trade War," as the left would like you to believe. This is China's Trade War, which they started decades ago when Bill Clinton opened the doors. The only problem, is that no president has had the courage to respond, until President Trump took office. When America is under attack, we have an OBLIGATION to respond. The American economy has been under attack by China for decades. They've stolen our intellectual property to the tune of over $100 billion per year. They reverse engineer our products and sell billions in knock-offs in the global marketplace. They've polluted China and the world around them, by carelessly allowing companies to operate there without any regulatory costs or responsibilities, which enables companies to dump their waste products at random to save billions in regulatory costs that they would have otherwise paid in America. China artificially suppresses the value of its currency, so that it can take advantage of the US in trade expenses. Make no mistake about it, they've been executing a calculated attack on our nation for decades. When you go to the store, most products that you see are Made in China, and most of those products are made with toxic chemicals or otherwise do not meet US product quality standards. Yet, their products flood American markets, and every former president hasn't lifted a finger to stop it. Now that we actually have a president who understands the importance of this issue, and how dangerous it is for the future of America's national security, we have outrage from the leftists who wrongfully criticize Trump's response. I guess they would rather turn a blind eye, while the enemy quietly destroys us from the inside out. I am outraged and disgusted with Americans who don't have the courage to fight, when our country is under attack!
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
history doesnt repeat, only rhymes (potential scenario to come)this diamond pattern most assume would be a top, but in some circumstances, it can be a continuation. based on past instances of deflation my best guess would say this is a continuation. during periods of deflation currency/buying power increases due to falling prices and the incentive to hold for further falling prices. with global currencies weakening in response to lowering bond yields and a potential wait and see fed the dollar may get a nice kicker to unimagined heights. i firmly stand with the deflationary scenario similar to the 1980's pre-plaza accord. basically the japanese and US were competiting very similarly to the US and China today. the dollar got out of control until the plaza accord when global finance ministers/central bankers all met up and agreed upon a dollar devaluation (global reset). this is the scenario i'd look for and similarly to then i would look to Chinese stocks/back then thats when the Japanese bubble went crazy insane.
so
1) let the deflation narrative/dollar run high
2) global reset via finance ministers/CB's devaluing the dollar
3) buy chinese stocks and let the bubble (hyperinflation in china) go beyond what's sustainable
is the fomc about to make a drastic liquidity mistakeall relates to interest differentials and the cross currents of the need to print before the clock runs out. as we've seen china is loosing control of the currency. when their currency weakens their peg partners strengthen... that being said when you weaken your currency you import inflation, however you export deflation. if we dont make drastic moves to weaken in a material matter we may see the dollar make a major run due to its scarcity. this end game is likely to result in a break up in the sino-american debt loop. lets just hope our ppl make material measures to lean dovish/expand the money supply
king dollar going turbo.. china about to devalue again?turbo-tastic.. some traditional pairs may decouple. precious metals in particular will follow face value of bond rates rather the path of the dollar
USD 100 INDEX W1BUTTEFLY FORM ON USD100 INDEX (USDX) W1 CHART .. ENTRY... 98... SL...98.50... TP... 95.34
the fed needs to print.fed funds vs ioer vs 10 year. year theyre gonna have to print not because they want to because they have to longer term to regain control over the dollar...
futures 2020I have been pretty dead on with the futures chart. Have made a bundle of cash with #capitulation . Cant wait to see what end of July brings.
FYI- todays #puts were a huge seller and #calls leveled out at 12 % only
dx1usd is in consolidation mode and looks to pop for the month of July. Get ready with $aapl $tsla and $fang calls. Watch your stops.. We should hit $spx to 3k by July 12. Maybe Independence day gift.
hooorah!
Breakout on the DX1!Last post: April 14th 2019. See chart.
Review: Price was bullish but trading in consolidation.
Update: Price has now broken out of consolidation suggesting a bull trend continuation.
Conclusion: We do not trade this but look at this a guide to trading the USD pairs. If price continues towards 100, then we will look to place trades on the best looking USD pairs.
Sublime Trading
DXY seasonality forecastImplying flat- down future movement.
Candlesticks are shooting up. Short term bullish
Dollar Index Bullish but in ConsolidationLast post: June 16th 2018. See chart .
Review: Price was faced with the weekly 200SMA acting as resistance at circa 95.
Update: Price is trading above the weekly moving average but has remained in consolidation.
Conclusion: Waiting for a breakout above the March 2019 high.
Sublime Trading
Il dollar index pare non averne piùQuesto canale è composto da una parte superiore e una inferiore, formatasi dal 2019 in poi, divise dalla linea tratteggia..
Il prezzo si trova ora sullo spike di agosto 2018, che coincide anche con la linea tratteggiata, e pare aver già reagito
a questa struttura.. lo si vede meglio sul grafico daily, dove nella candela di oggi (7 marzo) il prezzo è stato respinto seppur in modo debole..
La mia opinione personale è che il prezzo riesca a tornare nella parte superiore del canale, anzi mi aspetto qualche settimana short.
USDX will dropThe dollar almost complete the buy model and now probabbly will reach 96.6, 96.8, or 97 then it will drop breaking all lows and it will make a lowEr low around 94.5.
DXY GOING HIGHERUS DOLLAR GOING HIGHER - BOTH USD AND GOLD FORMED H & S REVERSAL PATTERNS - COULD BE CORRELATED - SHORT FIAT LONG-TERM BUT SHORT-TERM DOLLAR APPEARS STRONG
DOLAR INDEX POSSIBLE DOWNTREND1- BUY CLIMAX "BCLX":The buying pressure culminates, where purchases are being absorbed.
2- AUTOMATIC RALLY "AR":Where the buying pressure has been exhausted a surge of sales can make the price fall, this fall in price helps us define the trading range "TR".
3- SECONDARY TEST "ST":Price revisits the "BCLX" Area .The volume and the price distribution should be significantly reduced as the market approaches the resistance in the "BCLX" Area.
4- UPTHRUST "UT": It is a test to the resistance, this type of test it is usually accompanied by volume and tend to breaks the resistance, and after this,
the price returns to the trading range, this is an indication that the volume that appeared is sales and not buys.
5- After an upthrust we should see a move down and we will have a test to the "UT" (a valid test is usually accompanied by small candles and small volume and usually goes to 50% of the down movement).
6- SIGN OF WEAKNESS "SOW": Sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume.
7. LAST POINT OF SUPPLY "LPSY": This point appears after a "SOW". It is the last attempt of the price to raise, although it can do it twice. It's a good point to look for sales.
