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U.S. Dollar Currency Index

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Breakout on the DXY - Is the DXY going higher?What is the DXY? The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) measures the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies. A rising DXY indicates a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This can have significant effects on cryptocurrencies, particularly in the short- and medium-term. Here are some of the key impacts: What does an increase in the DXY mean for crypto? Negative Impact on Crypto Prices: As the dollar strengthens (rising DXY), the relative value of other assets, including cryptocurrencies, can decline. Many cryptocurrencies are priced in U.S. dollars, so when the dollar strengthens, the same amount of dollars may buy fewer crypto assets, leading to price declines for cryptocurrencies. Safe-Haven Movement: When investors flock to the U.S. dollar due to its rising strength, they may move capital out of riskier assets like crypto and into the dollar or U.S. Treasury bonds, which are seen as safer. This can cause a decrease in demand for cryptocurrencies. What can we conclude from the 4-hour DXY chart? The DXY experienced a rapid decrease this month, resulting in a drop from 108 to 103. However, after this sharp decline, the price has shown some bullish signs. First: The price action kept making lower lows while the RSI made higher lows, resulting in a bullish divergence. Second: The price action formed a specific pattern commonly found at the end of a downtrend. This pattern shows that the price is making small lower lows and lower highs, suggesting market exhaustion and a possible upside move toward the resistance zone. The resistance zone aligns with the golden pocket Fibonacci level, indicating it could be a strong rejection level. It is highly probable that the DXY could make an upside move to the resistance zone and golden pocket after breaking this bullish chart pattern. What do we see on the daily timeframe? The price dropped rapidly from 108 to the support zone at 103. After consolidating at this level, the price made a slightly lower low, while the RSI made a higher low. This indicates a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe. Before this drop, the DXY formed a typical bearish chart pattern known as Head and Shoulders (H&S). The neckline of the pattern coincides with the resistance zone on the 4-hour timeframe and the golden pocket. This suggests that it may be a difficult level to break. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment! Lets chat in the comment section. See you there :)
TVC:DXYLong
by Youriverse
14
DXY: Starting a new Channel Up rally into Summer.The U.S. Dollar Index is near the oversold zone on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.232, MACD = -1.040, ADX = 33.922) having reached the bottom of the 9 month Channel Up. The 1D RSI was oversold last week but is seen rebounding. This is exactly the kind of formation we had on the previous bottom of the Channel Up as well as the December 28th 2023 low.. The selling sequences that led to those lose have been almost the same as today's (-6.32% and -5.74%). The last Channel Up bullish wave reached exactly the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Consequently we can go long here with an acceptable risk, targeting the top of the Channel Up (TP = 113.000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXYLong
by InvestingScope
Weekly CLS I KL FVG , Model 1 , LQ taken Hey Traders!! Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions! 🧩 What is CLS? CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion. ✅By understanding how CLS operates—its specific modes and timings—you gain a powerful edge with more precise entries and well-defined targets. 🛡️Follow me and take a closer look at Models 1 and 2. These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions. 📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow. Wishing you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader! “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” David Perk ⚔
TVC:DXYLong
by David_Perk
9
Further Underperformance for the US Dollar Index? Down nearly 4.0% this month, the US Dollar Index demonstrates scope to navigate deeper waters on the monthly chart towards the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at 101.72. A similar vibe is evident on the daily chart. Following a test of support-turned-resistance at 103.94, a possible bearish scenario could unfold if price breaches the lower edge of the current descending triangle pattern (103.22/104.09). If a breakout lower materialises, follow-through downside could see support at 101.92 make an entrance (set just north of the 50-month SMA).
TVC:DXYShort
by FPMarkets
DXY March 20 Analysis DXY March 20 Analysis Price parent bias is bear Price is Discount M/W/D Previous session DISCOUNT and DISCOUNT on the daily range new 8:30 March 19 delivery Price was in a discount after consolidation rallied in London to session 50 as I suspected and rallied to the daily range 50. Retraced with a small consolidation coming into NY. 7 macro judus swing small consolidation to reverse and rally to buy stops target and FVG. FOMC price retraced a discount on the .79 DR and consolidated. Stop hunt raid? Note how prices swing was from .79 to .79 on the daily range. March 20 delivery Its likely after the raid on buy stops and that Price is now rebalancing a HTF FVG that we could see price continue to seek lower prices. It could show signs of wanting to come to the 50 previous session range so be open to what the chart prints. My Model Factors Price will have to do the following for me to trade *session liquidity taken *macro time only *first presented FVG *4 candle pattern *hour analysis down to 1 min every 15 minutes *every hour mark out what price has done Stay open to build narrative once Asia opens. Stay open to reading price delivery
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
USD Gains Ground as Markets Await the FOMC and New ProjectionsThe U.S. dollar is regaining ground ahead of the much-anticipated second monetary policy decision of the year by the Federal Reserve, after having been under pressure during the first half of the week. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a 0.4% gain, positioning itself as the strongest currency among major Forex market pairs on this key trading day. Alongside the greenback’s strength, U.S. equity markets are also trading in positive territory, reflecting relative optimism ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. The federal funds rate, currently within a 4.25% to 4.50% range, is widely expected to remain unchanged, with interest rate futures assigning a 99% probability to this outcome. However, while the rate decision is largely priced in, market attention will shift toward the Fed’s new economic projections, and most importantly, to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. I personally anticipate significant adjustments in the Fed’s estimates, which could trigger notable market reactions. Specifically, I expect the Federal Reserve to lower its 2025 economic growth projections from the 2.1% forecasted last December, in response to a more challenging economic environment, where we have seen a weaker U.S. consumer and the impact of recent tariff measures introduced by the Trump administration. Additionally, inflation projections will be a key focus, especially as we have seen a derailment of long-term inflation expectations, a crucial factor in the inflation debate, which have now reached their highest level since 1993. The so-called "dot plot" will likely indicate two rate cuts projected for this year, reflecting a slightly less dovish stance compared to the three cuts currently priced in by financial markets. This discrepancy could drive volatility in both the dollar and equities if market sentiment shifts to accommodate this less accommodative outlook. The post-decision press conference will be, in my view, the most critical moment of the day. Jerome Powell will face tough questions regarding the Fed’s stance on the growing risk of an economic recession, exacerbated by uncertainty over the effectiveness of the White House’s new trade and fiscal policies. It will be crucial to hear how Powell balances an inflation-focused narrative with the surge in inflation expectations, a key factor for future monetary policy decisions. Powell is likely to adopt a cautious approach, avoiding any firm commitments on the future direction of monetary policy, aiming to retain maximum flexibility in an uncertain economic environment. Finally, it wouldn’t be surprising if the term "stagflation" takes center stage in journalists’ questions, given the current backdrop of persistent inflationary pressures combined with increasing signs of economic slowdown. In summary, while interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, the Fed’s statements and projections will be critical in shaping the future direction of financial markets and the Federal Reserve’s monetary stance in this challenging economic environment.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
At 1:00 AM tomorrow, GMT +7, what will the FED say?At 1:00 AM tomorrow, GMT +7, what will the FED say? If the FED announces that they will keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the 103.5 level as a bottom, DXY will likely increase again in the next few days. However, if the FED decides to raise interest rates, XAU will plunge, and BTC will rise back to the $100,000 mark. But... regardless, after DXY's upcoming rise following the D1 cycle, there will be another drop. It's uncertain how fast DXY will move, but if it moves quickly, DXY could decline by early April, with XAU rising, and BTC likely dropping to the 66k-72k range.
TVC:DXYLong
by rainbow_sniper
3
Trump 1.0 vs Trump 2.0 - Are we about to see a repeat? Trump 1.0: A Rollercoaster Ride for the DXY Trump took office on January 20, 2017, with the DXY starting at 102.14 (January 3, 2017). It quickly peaked at 103.00 by early March 2017 fueled by market optimism over pro growth policies...think tax cuts, deregulation and infrastructure spending which hinted at higher inflation and Fed rate hikes. The Federal Reserve delivered, hiking rates three times in 2017 to 1.25%–1.5% by December, pulling in foreign capital and boosting the dollar. Global uncertainty, like Brexit drama and a slowing Chinese economy made the U.S a safe haven adding to the dollar’s early strength. Meanwhile, the Euro was weaker, with Euro at 1.06 in January 2017. By mid 2017, the DXY started sliding, hitting a low of 89.94 by March 2018, as marked by the chart’s red box. Trump’s trade war threats, especially against China, spooked markets, driving investors to safer currencies like the euro and yen (almost like what we are seeing today) His vocal dislike for a strong dollar, claiming it hurt U.S exporters didn’t help, creating bearish sentiment for the dollar. The Eurozone, on the other hand was thriving with 2.6% GDP growth in 2017 (vs. U.S. 2.3%) and the ECB’s October 2017 tapering signal (QE cut from €60B to €30B monthly) pushed EUR/USD to 1.20 by February 2018. The Fed’s hints at pausing rate hikes by late 2017, amid mixed economic signals, further eroded the dollar’s yield advantage aligning with what we see in the chart. The DXY staged a comeback from late 2018, climbing to 99.00 by late 2019 and hitting 102.94 in March 2020 before COVID hit. The Fed’s four rate hikes in 2018, peaking at 2.25%–2.5% by December, widened yield gaps with the Eurozone (ECB deposit rate at -0.40%, then -0.50% by September 2019) U.S GDP growth of 2.9% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019, boosted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) slashing corporate taxes from 35% to 21%, outpaced the Eurozone’s 1.2% in 2019, hit by trade tensions and Brexit. The U.S -China trade war, with tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods in September 2018, drove safe haven flows to the dollar while the ECB’s loose policy (QE restart in late 2019) weakened the euro, dropping EUR/USD to 1.12 by late 2018. COVID-19 caused a brief spike to 102.94 in March 2020, followed by a drop to 99.85 by April as the Fed slashed rates to near zero, later stabilizing around 99–100 by year end 2020, as noted by the chart’s "Dollar started to stabilize post covid." Trump 2.0: What’s Happening Now and What’s Next Fast forward to Trump 2.0, starting January 20, 2025. I marked this with "Trump2.0" annotation with the index peaking at 109.00, reflecting market hype over pro growth policies like tax cuts (e.g., 15% corporate rate, no taxes on tips) and tariffs (25% on Canada/Mexico, 10% on China, effective March 4, 2025) Markets expected these to spark inflation pushing the Feds to hike rates, driving the dollar up. By March 10, 2025, the DXY softened to 103.997 down 0.092%, mirroring Trump 1.0’s pattern of initial strength followed by weakness due to trade uncertainty. The Euro has shown resilience, with EUR/USD climbing to 1.0875 this month, supported by the ECB’s rate cut to 2.50% (effective March 12, 2025) and a hawkish stance despite a weak 0.9% growth forecast for 2025 and also the most recent EU talks of increasing military and security spending. The similarities are striking: Trump 2.0’s DXY spike to just over 109.00 and rapid drop to 103.997 echo the 2017–2018 volatility, driven by trade wars and economic divergence. The Euro’s early strength parallels 2017, but the Eurozone’s sluggish growth and potential Fed rate hikes could weaken it, as in 2018–2020. Trump’s isolationist moves...like demanding NATO members hit 5% GDP on defense (vs. U.S. at 3.38%), pausing $66.5B in Ukraine aid and prioritizing talks with Putin have the EU and American allies rethinking its relationship the the Unites States which has given the Euro some strength...also for the dollar are possible long term risks, trade wars might weaken the dollar and allies’ distrust (e.g., EU’s Kaja Kallas on February 27, 2025) could push them to diversify away from the dollar, boosting alternatives like the yuan. Trading Levels and Ideas Support/Resistance: Watch support at 103; a break below 102 could target 99. Resistance at 109—breaking 110 signals bullish momentum. Trade Setup: Consider EUR/USD longs on dips near 1.06–1.07, targeting 1.10, but be ready for dollar rallies if geopolitical tensions (e.g., Ukraine, NATO drama) could drive safe haven flows. Hedge with DXY longs above 105, eyeing 109–110. Risks: Trade wars could tank the dollar long term, tariffs might spike inflation, forcing Fed hikes. Opportunities: Tax cuts could boost U.S growth, supporting the dollar short term, while safe haven flows offer upside during uncertainty. To conclude this Long Post The DXY’s Trump 1.0 playbook of strength, dip, recovery...seems to be replaying in Trump 2.0 as of today but isolationist risks add a twist as well as possible recession fears which I didn't mention yet, that for another time. Stay nimble, watch Fed signals and keep an eye on global tensions for safe haven cues. As always stay blessed, stay humble and a massive cheers to you all!
TVC:DXY
by RobertTMFX
6
DXY March 18 Analysis DXY March 18 Analysis Price parent bias is bear Price is Discount M/W/D Previous session discount and discount on the daily range March 17 delivery Price delivering in a discount, taking minor buy stops hitting the .618 before turning around passing through the 50 to seek lower prices taking sell stops/FVG. March 18 delivery I suspect that Price will seek the 50 level 103.556 and watch for reaction if price will head to rebalance the noted FVG. Note Price broke structure and bounced off the .70 My Model Factors Price will have to do the following for me to trade *session liquidity taken *macro time only *first presented FVG *4 candle pattern *hour analysis down to 1 min every 15 minutes *every hour mark out what price has done Stay open to build narrative once Asia opens. Stay open to reading price deliver
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena