Dollar Milkshake Theory: Will the US Dollar Suck the World Dry?Imagine a colossal milkshake party where every country brings its own flavor—sweet euros, tangy yen, spicy rupees—blended into a global liquidity shake. Now picture the United States, armed with a giant straw, slurping up every last drop while the rest of the world watches in dismay. 🍓🍫🍦 This vivid analogy isn’t just a quirky dessert dream—it’s the heart of Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake Theory, a provocative economic idea that’s been shaking up financial circles since 2018. But is the US dollar really about to dominate the global economy, or will it choke on its own straw? Let’s dive into this creamy concoction of macroeconomics, recent trends, and global stakes—complete with a cherry of skepticism on top! 🍒
🥛 What’s the Dollar Milkshake Theory, Anyway?
Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, isn’t just a wealth manager—he’s a financial storyteller who’s been stirring the pot with his Dollar Milkshake Theory. Picture this: the global economy is a giant milkshake, with frothy assets (stocks, bonds, commodities) floating on top, and the milk, cream, and sugar representing the cash flows between markets. The straw? That’s the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, sucking up liquidity when it tightens, leaving other economies parched.
Johnson’s core idea is simple yet bold: during global economic turmoil, the US dollar—thanks to its status as the world’s reserve currency—becomes a safe haven. Investors worldwide flock to it, driving its value skyward while other currencies wither. 🌎💰 Since 2008, global central banks have pumped roughly $30 trillion in liquidity into the system through quantitative easing (QE), creating a massive “milkshake” of money. But when the Fed raises rates, as it has in recent years, the US siphons that liquidity, leaving other nations scrambling to pay dollar-denominated debts.
Here’s the kicker: this isn’t a one-time sip. Johnson predicts a feedback loop where the dollar’s strength forces other countries to print more of their own currencies to buy dollars, further weakening their economies and reinforcing the dollar’s dominance. It’s a vicious cycle—a “milkshake” that could leave the global economy in a sticky mess. 🌀
📈 The Recipe for Dollar Dominance: Why the US Holds the Straw
Why does the US get to drink everyone else’s milkshake? It’s all about structural advantages baked into the global financial system:
Reserve Currency Status 💵: The US dollar has been the world’s reserve currency since the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement. As of 2022, it accounted for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, dwarfing the euro’s 20% share . From oil to copper, most global trade is priced in dollars, creating constant demand.
Deep Capital Markets 🏦: The US has the deepest and most liquid bond markets, especially for Treasuries, making it the go-to place for investors seeking safety during crises.
Higher Interest Rates 📊: When the Fed raises rates, as it did aggressively in 2022-2023 to combat inflation, the dollar becomes more attractive compared to currencies like the euro or yen, where central banks like the ECB and BOJ have been slower to tighten .
Global Dependence on Dollars 🌐: Over 60% of international reserves are in dollars, and many countries and corporations hold dollar-denominated debt. When the dollar strengthens, their debt burden skyrockets, forcing them to buy more dollars to service it .
Johnson argues this isn’t just a cyclical trend—it’s a structural feature of the modern financial system. As he put it on Real Vision in 2018, “The dollar’s dominance is structural, not cyclical”. The US doesn’t just sip the milkshake—it guzzles it, leaving others to scrape the bottom of the glass. 🥤
📅 2025 Reality Check: Is the Milkshake Theory Playing Out?
Fast forward to April 2025, and the global economy is a blender of chaos: trade tensions, high debt levels, and monetary policy shifts are whipping up a storm. Does Johnson’s theory hold water—or rather, milk? Let’s look at the evidence. 🕵️♂️
🟢 The Bull Case: The Dollar’s Straw Is Sucking Hard
DXY Strength in 2024-2025: The US dollar index (DXY) surged 7% in 2024, hitting a two-year high of 108.07 in November 2024, driven by US economic growth, tariffs, and global uncertainty . Despite a recent 8% drop over the last two months (from ~106.8 in mid-February 2025 to 98.423 as of April 22, 2025), the DXY remains near historic highs, aligning with Johnson’s prediction of dollar strength during stress.
Historical Precedents: During the 2020 COVID crisis, the DXY jumped as the Fed provided $450 billion in swap lines to ease dollar shortages globally, reinforcing the dollar’s safe-haven role. In 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the DXY to a 20-year high of 114, as capital fled to the US amid Europe’s energy crisis.
Global Liquidity Squeeze: High-debt economies like Japan (debt-to-GDP at 255%) and the Eurozone (Italy at 139%, France at 112%) are under pressure. Capital flight to the US, especially if their growth falters, supports the milkshake effect.
Safe-Haven Demand: Posts on X reflect sentiment that the dollar’s strength is tied to its stability in an unstable world, with some users noting its “dug-in” status as global liquidity flows to the US .
🔴 The Bear Case: Is the Straw Starting to Bend?
Recent DXY Drop: The 8% decline in the DXY over the last two months (mid-February to April 2025) signals vulnerability. Trade war fears, threats to Fed independence, and a weakening US trade balance are weighing on the dollar. Some X users predict a further drop to 96-97, or even 87, if support levels break.
Fed Policy Shifts: The Fed began cutting rates in September 2024, which typically weakens the dollar by reducing its yield advantage. This move, aimed at balancing inflation and growth, could undermine the milkshake effect if it continues.
Dedollarization Efforts: BRICS nations are pushing to reduce dollar reliance, with China and India holding significant non-dollar reserves ($3,682 billion and $662 billion, respectively, as of April 2025). A shift toward commodity-based currencies could challenge the dollar long-term.
US Debt Concerns: The US’s soaring debt levels (over 120% of GDP in 2024) and inflation above the Fed’s 2% target raise questions about the dollar’s sustainability. If confidence in US fiscal health wanes, the milkshake could spill.
🌪️ What Happens If the Milkshake Theory Plays Out?
If Johnson is right, the global economy could face a bitter aftertaste. Here’s what a super-strong dollar might mean:
Currency Crises Abroad 💥: Countries with dollar-denominated debt—like many emerging markets—would struggle as their debt burdens soar. A stronger dollar means they need more of their own currency to buy dollars, potentially triggering defaults.
Commodity Price Slumps 📉: A rising dollar often leads to lower commodity prices (priced in dollars), hurting exporters like Brazil or Australia. This could stifle growth in developing economies.
US Export Woes 🚢: An overly strong dollar makes US goods pricier abroad, hurting American exporters. US companies could lose competitiveness, impacting economic growth.
Safe-Haven Asset Boom 🪙: Investors might flock to alternatives like gold or Bitcoin to hedge against currency devaluation. Gold recently hit $3,400 amid the DXY’s slide, and Bitcoin has seen gains as a “risk-on” asset.
Geopolitical Shifts 🌍: A dominant dollar could lead more countries to peg their currencies to the USD for stability, as 65 nations already do (e.g., Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia). But it might also accelerate dedollarization efforts, with BRICS nations seeking alternatives.
🤔 Skeptics Stir the Pot : Is the Milkshake Theory Too Sweet to Be True?
Not everyone’s sipping Johnson’s milkshake. Critics argue it’s more of a financial fairy tale than a robust theory:
Oversimplification 📊: The global economy is far more complex than a milkshake analogy. The theory focuses heavily on Fed policy but downplays other central banks’ actions, geopolitical tensions, and the rise of digital currencies.
Lack of Timeframes ⏳: Johnson’s predictions lack clear timelines, making them hard to test. As some X users have pointed out, being “too early” in financial markets is as good as being wrong.
Counter-Theories 🌐: Economist Zoltan Pozsar’s Bretton Woods III Theory suggests a shift toward commodity-based currencies in the East, potentially weakening the dollar. Post-Russia-Ukraine war, nations are diversifying away from the USD, favoring hard assets like gold.
US Vulnerabilities 🇺🇸 : The US’s own fiscal health—high debt, persistent inflation, and trade deficits—could undermine the dollar. Recent tariffs and supply chain shifts (e.g., moving away from China) may raise production costs, fueling inflation and slowing growth.
💡 What’s Next for the Dollar Milkshake in 2025 and Beyond?
As of April 22, 2025, the DXY’s recent 8% drop is a speed bump, not a derailment, for the Milkshake Theory. The long-term chart you provided projects the DXY climbing to 120-130 by the late 2020s, suggesting this dip might be a correction within a broader uptrend. But the road ahead is frothy with uncertainty:
Watch the Fed 🏛️: If the Fed continues rate cuts, the dollar’s yield advantage could shrink, slowing the milkshake effect. Conversely, renewed tightening could reignite dollar strength.
Global Crises ⚡: Ongoing trade wars, like US-China tensions, or new geopolitical shocks could drive more capital to the US, reinforcing the theory.
Dedollarization Risks 🌏: If BRICS nations succeed in reducing dollar reliance, the US straw might not suck as hard in the future.
🥛 Sip or Spill: Should You Buy Into the Milkshake Theory?
Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake Theory is a compelling narrative that captures the US dollar’s unique power in a turbulent world. The evidence—DXY strength, historical crises, and global dollar demand—suggests there’s cream in this shake. But the theory isn’t without cracks: the US’s own vulnerabilities, dedollarization efforts, and the recent DXY dip remind us that even the mightiest straw can bend. 🥤
For investors, this means staying nimble. A stronger dollar could hurt emerging markets and commodities, but it might boost safe-haven assets like gold or Bitcoin. Keep an eye on Fed policy, global growth, and geopolitical shifts—they’ll determine whether the US keeps sipping or the milkshake spills. 🌍💸 What do you think—will the dollar dominate, or is the party over? Let’s hear your thoughts! 🗣️
DXY trade ideas
Dollar index (DXY) Analysis DXY Analysis – General Outlook
This week’s analysis is more of a general overview, and it closely aligns with my view on EUR/USD. While I don’t trade DXY directly, I use it heavily as a confluence tool, so marking out its likely direction is key for aligning trades across other USD-related pairs.
At the moment, I’m favouring Scenario A, where I expect DXY to move a bit lower, accumulate, and then react from the 2-day demand zone. If that happens, we could see a bullish move on DXY, which would naturally result in bearish pressure for other pairs like EU and GU.
However, if price decides to retrace upwards first, there’s a clean supply zone that still needs to be mitigated. If that zone holds, DXY could continue its bearish structure for longer—meaning more bullish momentum across other major pairs.
DXY Weekly Analysis – Critical Support Zone at 98.4
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently testing a major support zone around 98.4 on the weekly timeframe. This level aligns with the bottom of a long-term ascending channel, and it also coincides with a horizontal support zone that has held multiple times in the past.
If this area holds, we could see a strong bullish rebound towards the 105 area — or even higher. However, a clear break below this support may open the door for a deeper decline toward the 89–90 range, which marks the next significant support zone.
Overall, DXY is sitting at a crucial decision point, and the market’s reaction in the coming weeks will be key for medium to long-term direction.
Dollar under pressure, is the bear trend gonna end soon?President Trump's aggressive tariff implementations, particularly on electronics and critical imports, have introduced volatility into U.S. markets. These measures have led to decreased investor confidence and capital outflows from U.S. assets, contributing to the dollar's weakness.
There's growing concern among global investors about the reliability of U.S. economic policies. A Bank of America survey indicated record pessimism towards U.S. assets, with over 60% of fund managers anticipating further depreciation of the dollar.
The Trump administration's economic approach, informally dubbed the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," aims to deliberately weaken the dollar to boost U.S. exports and reduce trade deficits. While this strategy seeks to make American goods more competitive, it risks destabilizing global financial markets and undermining the dollar's reserve currency status.
Differences in monetary policies between the U.S. and other major economies have widened. While the Federal Reserve has been cautious with rate cuts, other central banks, like the European Central Bank, have been more aggressive, making their currencies more attractive to investors.
In all these Chaos can dollar bounce back?
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 99.23—down about 1.5% over the past week and roughly 4% lower so far in April, its worst monthly performance since mid‑2022
That 99.0–99.5 zone lines up with both the April swing lows and the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart—classic territory where “oversold” signals often lead to a rebound.
The 14‑day RSI is hovering near 30, the canonical “oversold” threshold where prior rallies have begun
Markets now price in three rate cuts by year‑end, a sharp turn from December’s hawkish Fed rhetoric. If the Fed leans dovish in the May minutes, yield differentials could narrow—supporting a dollar bounce
Heightened trade‑war uncertainty (tariffs on critical minerals, spiking gold) often drives investors back into dollars as a haven—another buffer at current lows.
Technically the chart is still bullish on daily and certainly near the support zone, both scenario are in play for now, if it continues to drop sharply towards 96 then it may totally reverse back to 107.
Considering Dollar bottom is near we can plan a swing trade with a huge potential, with awesome risk and reward.
Good luck trade safe.
DXY Is Bullish! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 15m
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 99.109.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 99.404 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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DOLLAR INDEXThe Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance in April 2025 is characterized by a cautious, data-dependent approach amid mixed economic signals and heightened uncertainty, particularly due to the impact of tariffs and trade tensions.
Key Points on the Fed’s Monetary Policy This Month
Interest Rates: The Fed has maintained the federal funds target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, holding steady without changes in April. The Committee is carefully assessing incoming data before considering any adjustments to rates.
Balance Sheet Reduction: Starting in April, the Fed slowed the pace of its balance sheet runoff by reducing the monthly cap on Treasury securities redemptions from $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining the cap on agency debt and mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion. This move smooths the transition from abundant reserves but does not signal a change in the overall policy stance.
Economic Outlook and Risks:
The economy continues to expand modestly with a solid labor market, but inflation remains somewhat elevated above the 2% target.
The Fed acknowledges increased uncertainty due to tariffs, which may simultaneously slow growth and push inflation higher, creating a challenging policy environment. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the potential conflict between the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in this context.
The Fed is prepared to adjust policy as appropriate, depending on how economic data evolve, but currently prefers to "stand pat" and await clearer signals on the economy’s response to tariffs and other factors.
Inflation and Employment: Inflation is gradually declining but remains above target. The labor market is solid but expected to soften somewhat due to slower growth and tariff effects, with unemployment forecasted to rise modestly over the next year.
Forward Guidance: The Fed’s communication emphasizes patience and data dependency, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for May 6-7, where further policy decisions will be evaluated based on new economic information.
Summary
Aspect Current Fed Stance (April 2025)
Federal Funds Rate Held steady at 4.25%–4.50%
Balance Sheet Reduction Slowed Treasury runoff to $5B/month
Inflation Elevated but gradually declining
Labor Market Solid but expected to soften
Tariff Impact Significant uncertainty; potential stagflation risk
Policy Outlook Patient, data-dependent; no immediate rate changes
Next FOMC Meeting May 6-7, 2025
In essence, the Fed is maintaining a modestly restrictive monetary policy stance this month, balancing between controlling inflation and supporting employment amid trade-related uncertainties. It is closely monitoring economic data before making further moves, signaling readiness to adjust policy if risks to growth or inflation intensify.
DXY BEARISH BIAS|SHORT|
✅DXY is trading in a downtrend
And the index is making a local
Bullish correction so after the
Resistance is hit around 100.500
We will be expecting a local
Bearish correction
SHORT🔥
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Dollar has next 4 years (Be greedy when others are fearful)The world is changing fast, and the next four years may be strong for the U.S. dollar . This is not random— it's part of a cycle . Greed-fear cycle
Right now, humanity is entering a time where AI will take over most service-based jobs . Lawyers, designers, consultants—even coders—are slowly being replaced by machines. The entire service economy is becoming automated.
When that happens, only countries with real manufacturing will survive.
That’s why what President Trump said earlier about “bringing back manufacturing” makes full sense now.
When services become automated, tangible assets rise.
And the dollar may lead this shift.
DXY: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 98.127 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 98.393.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DXY Trading Opportunity: Bullish Setup & Precise SignalsOn Thursday, the DXY declined, trading below 99.50 with a drop of over 0.50%, mainly influenced by the latest remarks of U.S. President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin regarding global tariff negotiations. Meanwhile, the U.S. durable goods orders data showed a divided picture, reigniting market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
On the hourly chart, the DXY exhibits obvious technical pressure characteristics. The price has gradually retreated from the previous high near the 100 level and is currently consolidating around 99.30. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF line and the DEA line are in a deadlock above the zero axis, indicating a weakening of short-term momentum. The RSI indicator stands at 43.2687, in the neutral zone; 99.1000 has become an important support level in the near term.
From a daily chart perspective, the DXY shows an obvious downward trend. Since February 2025, the price has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, and has recently broken below the psychological threshold of 100.00. The MACD indicator shows that the bearish momentum is dominant, with DIFF at -1.3961 and DEA at -1.3223 both operating below the zero axis. The RSI indicator is at 35.1769, on the verge of the oversold area, suggesting a possible technical rebound. 97.9229 is the recent low and constitutes an important support level. If this level is broken, the DXY may accelerate its downward movement.
DXY
buy@99.100 - 99.200
tp:99.800 - 100.300
Investment itself is not risky; it is only when investment is out of control that risks occur. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
DXY Long to 100 off bullish news from Trump
1. Current Data and research
Macro Regime
Business cycle
- moving into recession territory. S&P is down from 6125 to 4842 at its lowest. That's a 21% drop - this crosses the 20% drop threshold.
Inflation
- Headline 2.4%. Slightly above 2% target. Core PCE is at 0.4%. This is higher than expected.
Monetary Policy
- Still at high interest rate levels of 4.5%. There's more room for cuts than hike in general. However, Tariffs is a spanner in this logic as it introduces inflation that needs to be controlled, and limits the cuts.
Growth
- Consumer sentiments - 50.8. This is a drop from 57. Not a good sign for confidence in the US markets
Central Bank Outlook
- Forward Guidance & Policy Path - "Wait and see" approach to see the full effects of the tariffs and will tackle. Unlikely to cut rates quickly due to inflation risks from tariffs.
Flow & Positioning Factors
- LDN and NY opens
List of upcoming data
German PMI - today
US PMI - today
Expectations
German PMI - 47.5/50.3 - Unsure, but doubt there will be a huge surprise to the upside
US PMI - 49.3/52.9 - Expect a downtrend here and close to the 49.3. It will invalidate longer-term trades if there's a huge surprise to the downside
US Unemployment claims -NA -Expecting higher
Bullish arguments
- More pumping by Trump to prop the market up while the fundamentals are still likely to bad as tariffs are still there
Bear arguments
- The tariff is still the biggest elephant in the room and nothing has changed there. If anything, China has taken steps to prepare for a worse response in the future if US does not reach a negotiation.
2. Trade Thesis
Directional Thesis
I am expecting DXY to go back up to 100 due to a temporary strength in the USD from the good news for Fed Powell and Trump backing down in tariffs.
Supporting Logic
- Structural
-- The DXY was holding 100 level before the Powell news.
-- If the current news stays status quo, I expect prices to rise back up to that fundamental level after a brief pullback from 99.4 to 99.2
-Tactical
A significant lower-high pivot point set on H1 chart. I need prices to remain above that 99 level. If it drops below, then the tactical levels do not work.
- Flows
Look for entry at either LDN or NY session open
Expected Path
- Pull back to 99.0 and now slow ascend back to 100
- There's a resistance level at 99.6. That would be TP1, and 100 would be TP2
Invalidation Logic
- Fundamental Invalidation
-- Trump tweets another fire Fed
-- China escalates the trade war
-- US PMI has a huge downside surprise (unlikely)
- Price-Based Invalidation
-- Price breaking below 99
Asymmetric Setup
If I enter at 99.1X, this is a potential 1:4R trade with high confidence
Trade Setup
Entry level
- 99.1 to 99.2
Scale-in plan (if any)
- I can enter full size here
Position sizing
- 1% of account
TP zones
- TP1 - 99.6
- TP2 - 100
- TP3 - 101 (significant psychological level)
Time stop
Kill trade if
a) Prices drop below 99
b) Prices do not bounce to the upside within 2 hours of LDN and NY open
Price Action + Fundamentals Point to Dollar StrengthThe current market environment presents compelling evidence for a bullish move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). While some patience is required, the setup is increasingly favorable for the dollar to appreciate in the coming weeks and months.
Key Factors Supporting a Bullish Move:
Monthly Close Above 100.160:
A critical technical level to monitor is the monthly close above 100.160. If achieved, it would signal a strong bullish breakout, setting the stage for a continuation higher. Given current price action and market dynamics, this scenario looks highly probable. However, if the price fails to close above 100.160 and instead breaks below it, we could potentially start looking for short opportunities.
Bond Market Strength (30Y, 10Y, 5Y):
This past week, we witnessed notable strength across the US bond market. Yields declined as prices rose, typically a positive signal for the dollar as it reflects capital inflows into US assets.
COT Report Insights:
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a critical shift: commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are beginning to accumulate long positions in the dollar. This change in positioning historically precedes significant bullish moves.
Seasonal Patterns:
Seasonality also favors the dollar during this period. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen in the mid-year months, aligning perfectly with the current technical and fundamental landscape.
Targets:
Initial Target: 106.120
Given the accumulation signs and supportive macro backdrop, a move towards 106.120 seems very realistic.