BULLISH ON DXY THIS WEEKToday's analysis of the DXY (Dollar Index) suggests that we may see continued upward movement, as we are currently in a discount zone with a fair value gap above these levels.
DXY trade ideas
Dollar 4hr Analysis1 Day Time frame
Dollar has been bearish for a couple of days how, ever after reaching a major support zone last week, Dollar bounced back from the support and its currently on a minor uptrend
Dollar: 4hr Time frame
When i spotted the double bottom last week, i knew there is a high probability for dollar to rise from this support.
This week, i expect dollar to continue to rise up to the 102.500 key area.Before we may possibly see the bearish continuation or breakout to the upside.
Fundamentally, US FED may likely cut interest rate this month, which will push the price of dollar down
Daily Technical Analysis of Gold,Currencies,and Indices2/9/2024Daily Technical Analysis of Gold, Currencies, and Indices - 09/02/2024
Introduction
Hello, I am Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, a financial market expert. Today, I am presenting my detailed outlook on the major currency pairs, commodities, and financial indices for Monday, September 2, 2024.
This week, several significant economic data releases are expected to have a substantial impact on financial markets. These include the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, the Job Openings Report, the Non-Farm Private Sector Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, the Services and Non-Manufacturing PMIs, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Report, Average Hourly Earnings, the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), and the Unemployment Rate. Analyzing these data points will help determine the inflation path and make informed decisions regarding future monetary policy.
Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
This week, several important economic data points have been released in the United States, impacting the performance of the U.S. dollar and gold. Although the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure came in below expectations in July, the U.S. Dollar Index saw an increase, exerting some pressure on gold. This immediate reaction might provide an opportunity for price correction, as the U.S. Dollar Index continues to trade within a major descending channel. Unless the index can break above the 102 level, any rise will be considered a correction. So far, staying below the 103.2 level indicates further correction, with possible declines to 100.3 and 99, based on upcoming economic data.
Analysis of EUR/USD
We observe that the EUR/USD pair is currently correcting and approaching significant support at the 1.1000 level. A break below this level could push the pair back into a downtrend toward 1.0851 and 1.0700 levels. The bearish scenario will only be negated if the pair manages to hold and rebound above 1.1000, which could lead to a rise toward 1.1200 in the near term.
Analysis of GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair is nearing critical support levels at 1.3100. A break below this support could lead to a sharp downward move targeting 1.2970 and 1.2850 levels. To maintain the upward trend, the pair must stay above the 1.3100 level.
Analysis of USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair is attempting to form a minor upward trend. If prices manage to break above 106 or 105 yen per dollar, we might see a rise towards the 149 and 153 yen levels. The bullish scenario will be invalidated if prices drop below 145 yen.
Analysis of USD/CHF
The USD/CHF pair remains under selling pressure. If prices stay below the 0.85100 level, the pair could decline further towards 0.83700. A break above 0.85100 could lead to an increase towards 0.84200.
Analysis of AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair is attempting to enter a downward correction, but as long as prices trade above the 0.6700 level, the bullish scenario remains intact. A break below 0.6700 could push prices back to the 0.6500 level.
Analysis of NZD/USD
The NZD/USD pair maintains its upward stance as long as prices remain above 0.6250. The main scenario is a continued rise towards 0.6345 and 0.6450 in the near term.
Analysis of USD/CAD
The USD/CAD pair is trading under pressure, and as long as prices remain below the 1.3600 level, a continued decline towards 1.3450 and 1.3300 levels is expected in the near term.
Analysis of GBP/JPY
The GBP/JPY pair is under pressure, with prices staying below 196 yen potentially pushing the pair towards 184 yen. Exceeding the 196 yen level is necessary to alleviate selling pressures.
Analysis of EUR/JPY
The EUR/JPY pair is trying to break free from selling pressures. If it manages to surpass the 164 yen level, we could see increases towards 170 and 174 yen. However, as long as it stays below 164 yen, a decline remains possible.
Analysis of EUR/GBP
The EUR/GBP pair remains under selling pressure below the 0.84500 level, supporting a bearish scenario towards 0.83750 and 0.83 in the near term.
Analysis of USD/TRY
The USD/TRY pair faces selling pressures. A break below the 34 lira level could lead to deeper corrections towards 33.5 and 33 lira, while staying above 34 lira may provide an opportunity for a rise.
Analysis of Bitcoin vs. USD
Bitcoin remains under downward pressure, with prices staying below the psychological level of 60,000 USD, potentially targeting levels of 52,000 and 44,000 USD in the medium term.
Analysis of Ethereum vs. USD
Ethereum is trading under clear selling pressures, and as long as the price remains below 2,800 USD, further declines towards 2,200 and 1,600 USD may be observed.
Analysis of Ripple vs. USD
Ripple is attempting to relinquish its gains, with a break below the 0.55 USD level potentially driving it into a bearish wave towards 0.48 and 0.40 USD in the medium term.
Analysis of Gold
Gold is retreating following the release of the inflation index that came in below expectations. However, as long as prices remain above 2,460 USD per ounce, this is considered a natural correction. A breakout above 2,520 USD could lead to new highs towards 2,560, 2,600, and 2,700 USD.
Analysis of Crude Oil
Crude oil is declining, approaching a significant support area at 73 USD per barrel. Breaking this level could push prices towards 70 and 67 USD.
Analysis of Silver
Silver is nearing a crucial support level at 29 USD. Breaking this level could lead to a decline towards 27.5 and 26 USD.
Analysis of Natural Gas
Natural gas is trying to regain positive momentum, but staying below 2.20 USD may lead to a decline towards 1.80 USD.
Analysis of Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow Jones Index is maintaining its gains above the 41,000 point level, supporting a bullish scenario towards 42,500 and 44,000 points.
Analysis of S&P 500
The S&P 500 Index is attempting to resume its upward trend. Surpassing the 5,700 point level could push the index towards 5,900 and 6,100 points.
Analysis of Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq Index maintains its bullish scenario towards 21,500 USD, with prices remaining above 19,250 USD.
Analysis of Russell 2000
The Russell 2000 Index is attempting to resume its upward trend. Exceeding the 2,225 point level could push the index towards 2,320 and 2,440 points.
Analysis of FTSE 100
The FTSE Index is attempting to surpass the 8,400 point level, potentially pushing it towards 8,600 and 8,800 points in the near term.
Analysis of DAX 30
The DAX Index is maintaining its gains, with a possibility of targeting higher levels if it surpasses the main resistance level.
Analysis of CAC 40
The CAC Index maintains its upward trend, with expectations to target levels of 7,900 and 8,200 points in the near term.
Analysis of Nikkei 225
The Nikkei Index is trading within an upward scenario, with expectations to target levels of 40,000, 42,450, and 45,000 points in the medium term, provided it remains above the 37,000 point level.
Conclusion
This concludes the daily technical analysis session. Thank you for watching, and I wish you a successful trading day. Stay safe.
This analysis was prepared by Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is advisable to stay updated with economic developments to make well-informed decisions.
1 Sep 2024 Market overview for the week on US DOLLAR INDEXBased on price action, DXY looks quite interesting. Thank you for watching and supporting us.
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Drop pairs in the comment section for next overview.
Potential Bullish Outlook for DXYFundametnal Analysis:
The TVC:DXY is expected to stay strong due to high interest rates and solid economic growth, with GDP at 3% and inflation at 2.9%. The labor market remains stable, and consumer confidence is robust, despite a negative trade balance. The Fed's potential rate cuts, if coupled with positive NFP and ADP reports, could sentimentally boost the USD further. Overall, the DXY is likely to maintain its strength, driven by favorable economic conditions and strategic monetary policy adjustments.
Technical Analysis:
The TVC:DXY is currently testing strong support around 100.691, with the potential for a rebound targeting resistance levels at 104.100 and 105.856 if the support holds. However, a breakdown below 100.691 could signal further bearish momentum, leading to a deeper correction. Alternatively, the index may remain range-bound between 100.691 and 104.100, indicating a period of consolidation until a decisive breakout or breakdown occurs.
overral view:
DXY BIAS I'M KIND OF LOOKING FOR BULLISH PRICES-4HR retracement to that Bullish breaker.
-15mins MSS for entry
-IDC if its London session or New York AM session
LETS SEE IF WE WILL GET WHAT I"M LOOKING FOR!!!!!
DXY, what is next bro?DXY analysis 1/09/24💵
Few things about it:
DXY is oversold and it has 4h and daily FVG higher +
It just tested the bottom of the global range (almost 2 years in consolidation), and most likely it will bounce till dFVG,
On 15m and 1h time frame, DXY has an uptrend (MS( ChoCH) and BoS) until the uptrend on 1h is not broken I will not consider reversal on DXY
DXY and EUR always fill their gaps on high time frames, before they move further and the next move on DXY will be final, so most likely it will keep going higher till 0.5 zone ( equilibrium) of this global range ~103.2-103.4 area
Considering all of this I will expect EUR and all pairs that trade against USD will be bearish unless the uptrend on 1h is broken with DOUBLE shifts only then i will consider DXY's reversal
USD Last week,light news, USD bounce during mid of last weekHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
As mentioned last week to be cautious on shorting USD , it came to play during midweek that there was a bounce. Nice.
This week might see continued retracement to $102.25 area and let's see if there's more hint from this coming week's NFP for USD direction. A couple of high impact news for USD this week. Trade with care!
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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September US Dollar BullishnessAll stars aligned for dollar bullishness throughout September: -
- Relative strength against US treasury bonds, gold, and the euro index = undervalued
- Fund managers' net positioning is becoming increasingly bullish
- Retail traders' net positioning is extremely bearish, which is a strong contrarian indicator
- 10-year September seasonality = bullish
- Price is breaking out of a high quality demand zone
Have been long for approx. 1 week thus far and will maintain my position and look to trail stops as we gradually break through supply zones
DXY - Waiting for pullback to go longDXY long idea: Waiting for a pullback then going long to 102.5 area.
King' s ($DXY) return?In #dollarindex chart, #dxy intends to reclaim the support zone that was already broken. If TVC:DXY succesfully reclaims the zone, then i expect this bullish diamond pattern to play out greatly!. If plays out, all markets - #nasdaq #stocks #crypto will have blood bath in mid term. Not financial advice.
Trend line breakout and Round bottom patternIt has broken out the down trend line and we can see the reversal round bottom pattern.
After breaking the the down trendline and resistanceAfter breaking the the down trendline and resistance ( 101.6) , its appears bullish
DXY SETUP COMPLETEPrice pushed to the upside whereby it violated the FVG and used it as support to push to relative EQHs.
#dxy wave c #elliottwave long 26Jul24 #bmgih #btcusd #goldThis count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice.
DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 101.502.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 100.706 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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$DXY | SilverEdge Insights |Technical Confluences:
Price action is in Oversold conditions in the Daily and Weekly Timeframe. Likely to see some consolidation of positioning here.
Price action broke out of an Upward Sloping Parallel Channel and cleared itself out of the that Interest Zone too. Likely will see a test to re-enter that Channel due to Oversold conditions.
Elliot wave count shows it is trying to compete Wave C (expected target would be to 71% Fibo Extension levels - possible to test the 100% Fibo level)
A new Downward Sloping Parallel Channel is in play now and Price action needs to see it break the mid of the Channel to see a substantial move downwards
Fundamental Confluences:
With the expected cuts, market started unwinding their long USD positions and it is reflected in the TVC:DXY
The extent of Wave C will really depend on how quick and reactive is the FED in cutting rates (the higher chances of 50bps cuts; the likelier we will see USD get sold.
Building into next week, we are likely to see some traders cover their short USD positions as they size down before NFP data.
However, if there is any gyration on the geopolitical front or US elections, it is possible to see the TVC:DXY reverse back to the top of the Downward Sloping Parallel Channel and top out at the Interest Zone area again
Why the USD is about to rally... See chart below please.
I would not necessarily listen to certain You-Tubers who write-off important momentum indicators like Stochastics & RSI.
My observations of both is that they are wonderful at telling me what is overbought & oversold. When a commodity, currency or stock is in either of these phases, massive & fast swings in price can occur as price comes out of the overbought (shorting) and oversold (buying) conditions.
The timeframe of the Stochastic and RSI which I've noticed has the most power and punch with respect to the above is the Weekly but sometimes the Weekly & Daily & 4HR RSI/Stochastics cross-up (x-up on 30/20 respectively) on their zones (buy) or cross-down (x-down 70/80 respectively) on their zones (short-sell). You really need to see the indicators tick-up (buy) or tick-down (sell) firmly through their respective zones (RSI 30/70) STOCH 20/80).
The following chart is the Weekly for the USDX. The RSI looks to be really getting under price & packing a big momentum-punch upwards soon. Plus the Stochastics Weekly is looking to cross up on its 20 zone at the same time. When they cross-up and if the Daily simultaneously crosses up it will provide a lot of upward price movement in USD and its index USDX.
I have been saying for about a week now that a rally is coming for the USD. This chart is the confirmation.
DXY - Looking to Big PictureWhen we look back, when Trump first came, Dxy showed a 5.5% increase, Dxy goes to 103.5. And Trump Dxy is too expensive, the dollar is too expensive, it should fall, the statements started. Then Dxy's 14% decrease went to 88.5. Now Dxy is around 102.
I bought it directly as a fractal from August 15, 2016. If Dxy comes to around 104 until the election, the rapid increase with Trump's arrival corresponds to 110s. It has been an expected area for a long time and when Trump Dxy is at 110s, similarly, if the decrease starts with him saying the dollar is too expensive, it goes to 94s, fractal.
Here, my hopes begin and I say that it is still expensive at those levels, we will go down to 86s. This means a 4-year never-ending mega bull.
I applied the same fractal to the euro, and the much-anticipated 1.02s are here again. If I can get a fund, I will look for swing shorts at 1.12s. The fractal and events looked pretty good to me. It also fit the channel nicely.
FX:EURUSD
Analysis of the Dollar Index by the Mallicast team.The US Dollar Index (DXY) has recently managed to break its previous high, indicating a relative strengthening of the dollar against other major currencies. This upward move could be attributed to various factors, such as strong economic data, expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, or volatility in global markets. However, following this increase, the Dollar Index is expected to enter a range-bound phase in early next month, oscillating within a specific price range. This consolidation period may occur due to profit-taking by traders, a lack of new strong catalysts, or uncertainty regarding the future direction of monetary and economic policies. Therefore, traders and analysts should closely monitor upcoming economic and political developments to make informed decisions for their positions in the market.
Analysis of the Dollar Index by the Mallicast team.The US Dollar Index (DXY) has recently managed to break its previous high, indicating a relative strengthening of the dollar against other major currencies. This upward move could be attributed to various factors, such as strong economic data, expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, or volatility in global markets. However, following this increase, the Dollar Index is expected to enter a range-bound phase in early next month, oscillating within a specific price range. This consolidation period may occur due to profit-taking by traders, a lack of new strong catalysts, or uncertainty regarding the future direction of monetary and economic policies. Therefore, traders and analysts should closely monitor upcoming economic and political developments to make informed decisions for their positions in the market.
the trend is changingThe euro was doing great but now we can see that the trend is changing and the dollar is moving higher. So we can expect that the euro is moving down and is going to make lower lows
Correction It is expected that the current upward trend will end in the current resistance range and we will see the beginning of the downward trend
