DXY will probably break hearts#dxy TVC:DXY the dollar index chart looks bullish and further movement will likely damage markets. Not financial advice.
DXY trade ideas
DXY IndexDXY INDEX
Breakout the Extreme Point of Interest ( POI ) and completed the retracement at Demand Zone. Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame , made a Fake Breakout need a Proper Breakout to Enter
DXY: Move Down Expected! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 103.586
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Nov 3rd—> Nov 8th)Looking Ahead:
Next week promises to be pivotal with several major events on the docket:
- **U.S. Presidential Election:** A crucial event that could reshape fiscal and economic policies.
- **Fed Policy Decision & Powell Press Conference:** The market will closely watch for signals about future rate paths.
- **U.S. Jobless Claims:** Key data to gauge the health of the labor market.
As we move forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. **Timing is key in trading. Check our www.notion.so for time stamps on these important events and stay ready for what’s ahead.** Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
Market Forecast (Updated 11/03/2024)
**SPX** - Most of the Mag 7 stocks reported really good numbers but issued weak guidance. With FOMC and Election decision this week, We should see a lot of volatility.
Next resistance: 5,824 and 5,893
Next support: 5,705, followed by 5,600
Weekly Sentiment: Mixed
a possibility that the dollar might go up to the 105 price levela possibility that the dollar might go up to the 105 price level because there might be a significant pullback. especially since the US elections has shown a very volatile effect on the USD and several other currencies in the past week. this might be a good opportunity to take out your spoil from the market or lose too. anyways, be careful.
i intend to take trades only if there's a very straightforward setup. that said, if there is no liquidity raid, i won't be taking any trade. i'm not eager to lose or make money.
THIS WEEK DXY TRADE SETUPINDEX : DXY
✔ Classic BULLISH formation
DXY is holding continuous UP Trend so after market retracement I can take BUY entry . If your analysis matches it take a trade otherwise skip the trade.
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The Weekend: Prepping to Trade & Travel w/AIRAIn preparation for a trip to show my daughter more of Thailand, I've switched to a fully mobile setup. I’m running everything with just two laptops and a monitor for each, getting my mind ready for this new workflow. I’m excited for this change because our usual work routine felt like it was limiting her experiences at such a crucial time in her life. This upcoming week is a big one, but nothing is more important than her growth and development. So, I hope you enjoy this test video. Rest assured, What's Flowing videos will keep flowing, and my algorithms will stay busy spread trading across various markets.
Near-term Bullish DXY Bias
Monthly chart for DXY hints a possible distribution zone formation.
As there is a bullish candlestick pattern formed at last month, bullish bias seems to be the higher possible trend for now.
Weekly Bullish trend channel formation suggest higher upside is likely, however, last bar doji candlestick pattern suggest indecision.
Near-term support and resistance at 100.25 and 106.50.
Last Friday bullish bar closes back near Monday's opening reinforced near term bullish bias.
Looking forward, next week 5 Nov being US presidential elections day will add volatility to the market.
So, price may likely to go the next higher order block area.
USDX: Trend in 4H time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
BEST,
MT
After break of channal Dollar index is consolidatingAfter break of channal Dollar index is consolidating. It may retest support before forming any trend
Uptrend It is expected that after the pullback to the support range, the upward trend will continue. Otherwise, by crossing the support range, the downward trend will be likely
Bearish DXY Continuation Trade IdeaDXY is showing signs of continued bearish momentum, likely to extend further as selling pressure builds.
Following recent economic data, sentiment remains weak for the dollar, pushing it toward key support levels.
DXY: Market Is Looking Up! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 104.321
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
DXY Bearish Trade IdeaExpecting DXY to open with a gap down, looking for an initial fill back up before a potential continuation lower. This setup aims to capture the downside momentum post-fill, as bearish sentiment remains in play. Stops are placed above recent highs to manage risk, with targets aligned to key support levels.
Bullish DXY Trade IdeaDXY is showing signs of bullish momentum on the 1-hour chart, looking to make a move toward the recent swing high. Positive U.S. economic data and ongoing dollar strength could continue driving price up. Stops are set below recent support to manage risk, with an eye on resistance at the 1-hour swing high as a target.
How does the dollar's strength endure amidst domestic turmoil?
A Resilient Currency
Despite a tumultuous political climate and growing social divisions, the U.S. dollar has shown remarkable strength, particularly in recent months. As measured by Bloomberg's Dollar Spot Index, the greenback has surged approximately 3.1% in October alone. This resilience is surprising, given the erosion of trust in American institutions and the increasing polarization of the country.
Why is the Dollar So Strong?
Several factors contribute to the dollar's enduring strength:
1. Safe-Haven Status: The U.S. dollar has long been considered a safe-haven asset. In times of economic uncertainty or geopolitical turmoil, investors often flock to the dollar as a reliable store of value. The current global landscape, marked by geopolitical tensions and economic volatility, has solidified the dollar's status as a safe haven.
2. Interest Rate Differentials: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy plays a crucial role in influencing the dollar's value. By raising interest rates, the Fed makes it more attractive for investors to hold dollar-denominated assets. As a result, the demand for the dollar increases, leading to appreciation.
3. Global Economic Disparity: The U.S. economy, while facing its own challenges, remains relatively strong compared to many other major economies. This economic disparity can lead to capital inflows into the U.S., further boosting the dollar's value.
4. Global Currency Reserve: The U.S. dollar is widely used as a global reserve currency. Central banks around the world hold significant amounts of U.S. dollars, which helps to maintain demand for the currency.
The Disconnect Between Currency and Country
The dollar's strength can be seen as a paradox, given the growing political polarization and social unrest in the U.S. However, it is important to distinguish between the country's political and social climate and its economic fundamentals. While the former may impact investor sentiment in the long run, the latter has a more immediate impact on the currency.
As long as the U.S. economy remains relatively stable and the Federal Reserve continues to pursue sound monetary policies, the dollar is likely to maintain its strength. However, it is essential to monitor geopolitical risks, global economic conditions, and domestic political developments that could potentially impact the dollar's value.
A Word of Caution
While the dollar's current strength is impressive, it is important to remember that market conditions can change rapidly. A sudden shift in investor sentiment, a change in Federal Reserve policy, or a significant geopolitical event could lead to a decline in the dollar's value.
It is crucial for investors to stay informed about global economic and political developments and to diversify their portfolios to mitigate risk. By understanding the factors that influence the dollar's value and making informed investment decisions, individuals can navigate the complex and ever-changing global financial landscape.
DXY: Local Correction Ahead! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 104.323
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
DXY plan 📈 **USD Index Technical Outlook** 📈
The U.S. Dollar Index is approaching a critical resistance level, which previously triggered a substantial bearish response. However, recent price action reveals an inability to push lower, signaling a potential shift in momentum towards the upside.
- Key Level to Watch : 104.500 – A decisive break above this resistance could pave the way for further bullish movement, suggesting renewed strength in the dollar.
- Market Sentiment**: Failure to establish lower lows underscores increasing bullish interest, enhancing the probability of an impending breakout.
A Bullish Turn: Investors Embrace the DollarA Shift in Sentiment
In a surprising turn of events, hedge funds, asset managers, and other speculators have shifted their stance on the US dollar, moving into bullish positions in the week ending October 22nd. This significant shift, totaling approximately $9.2 billion in long dollar bets, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) compiled by Bloomberg, marks a dramatic departure from the previous week's net short position.
A $10.6 Billion Swing
This abrupt change in sentiment represents a substantial $10.6 billion swing from the previous week, when traders were actively betting against the greenback. The reasons behind this bullish pivot are multifaceted, primarily driven by a confluence of factors, including stronger-than-expected US economic data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets as the US election approaches.
A Recalibration of Fed Expectations
A series of positive economic reports released throughout October has forced a recalibration of previously dovish Federal Reserve expectations. The robust economic indicators have raised the possibility of a more hawkish monetary policy stance from the Fed, which could potentially lead to higher interest rates. Historically, a stronger US dollar has been correlated with higher interest rates, making the greenback an attractive investment for global investors.
Election-Year Uncertainty
As the US presidential election draws near, geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility tend to increase. In such times, investors often seek refuge in safe-haven assets like the US dollar. The dollar's perceived status as a reliable store of value, combined with the potential for increased market volatility, has likely contributed to the recent surge in demand for the currency.
Implications for the Global Economy
The shift towards a bullish dollar position has significant implications for the global economy. A stronger dollar can negatively impact emerging market economies that rely heavily on dollar-denominated debt. Additionally, it can make US exports more expensive, potentially hindering economic growth. However, for countries with strong economic fundamentals and current account surpluses, a stronger dollar can be beneficial.
A Cautious Outlook
While the recent bullish trend in the dollar is notable, it is essential to maintain a cautious outlook. The global economic landscape remains uncertain, and a variety of factors, including geopolitical events, trade tensions, and central bank policies, could influence the dollar's trajectory. As such, it is crucial for investors to carefully consider the risks and rewards associated with dollar-based investments.
In conclusion, the recent shift towards a bullish dollar position reflects a significant change in market sentiment. A combination of stronger-than-expected US economic data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets has driven investors to embrace the greenback. While the implications of this trend for the global economy are far-reaching, it is essential to remain vigilant and adapt to evolving market conditions.
Bearish DXY IntradayThe DXY is showing signs of potential downside pressure on the intraday charts, with recent economic data dampening bullish momentum. The index appears to be overextended after a strong run-up, and a pullback could occur as the market reassesses the U.S. dollar’s strength. I’m looking for a move down to retest support levels below, anticipating continued selling pressure as the index corrects intraday.
DXY Is Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 104.214.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 104.676 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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