OJ1! trade ideas
Sugar and FCOJ Take the Bullish BatonThe soft commodities sector of the commodity market can be highly volatile. Historically, sugar, coffee, cotton, cocoa, and frozen concentrated orange juice futures that trade on the Intercontinental Exchange have doubled, tripled, and halved in value over short periods. While clothing and other consumer goods depend on the cotton market, the other sector members are foods.
The soft commodity sector rose in 2021, and Q1 2022
Coffee and cotton rose to multi-year highs in 2022
FCOJ takes off on the upside in April and makes a new multi-year high
Sugar could be next for three reasons
Trading softs from the long side- Buy those dips
Brazil is the world’s leading producer and exporter of three of the soft commodities; sugar, coffee, and oranges. Sugar comes from two sources, sugar beets and sugarcane. Brazil’s tropical climate makes it the leading sugarcane producer. Arabica coffee beans are popular in the US and other areas, while Robusta beans produce espresso coffees. Brazil leads the world in Arabica production. While many people associate orange production with Florida and California, Brazil is the world’s top orange producer. Cocoa, the primary ingredient in chocolate confectionery products, comes mainly from West Africa, as the Ivory Coast and Ghana produce over 60% of the world’s annual supplies.
Soft commodities are agricultural products, so the weather in growing areas typically determines the prices each year. Since the 2020 pandemic, the price action has been anything but ordinary.
The two latest soft commodities to lead the sector on the upside have been sugar and FCOJ futures.
The soft commodity sector rose in 2021, and Q1 2022
In 2021, the composite of the five soft commodities that trade in the futures markets on the Intercontinental Exchange rose 31.57%. In Q1 2022, the softs added to gains, rising 6.58%, with all five members posting gains.
Cotton futures led the softs higher with a 20.51% gain. Cocoa futures moved 5.16% to the upside, with FCOJ posting a 3.86% gain. Sugar rallied 3.23%, and Arabica coffee futures eked out a 0.13% gain.
Meanwhile, coffee and cotton rose to new multi-year highs during the first three months of 2022.
Coffee and cotton rose to multi-year highs in 2022
In June 2020, coffee futures made a higher low under the $1 per pound level before taking off on the upside.
The weekly chart shows the bullish trend of higher lows and higher highs that took coffee futures to $2.6045 per pound in early February 2022. Coffee futures rose to the highest price since 2011.
Cotton futures also rose to the highest level since 2011, peaking at the $1.4614 per pound level in April 2022.
Coffee futures were over the $2.20 level, with cotton above $1.40 on April 14.
FCOJ takes off on the upside in April and makes a new multi-year high
Frozen concentrated orange juice futures are the least liquid of the five soft commodities, based on daily volume and open interest metrics. While the FCOJ futures arena rose to a new multi-year high in Q1 2022, the bullish price action continued in April with higher highs.
The chart shows that nearby FCOJ futures rose to $1.8660 per pound last week, the highest level since March 2017. The all-time high in the orange juice market came in 2016 at $2.35 per pound.
Brazil is the leading producer and exporter of oranges and Arabica coffee beans. The South American country also is the leader in free-market sugarcane production and exports.
Sugar could be next for three reasons
Sugar futures rose to 20.69 cents per pound in November 2021, the highest price since February 2017.
The weekly chart shows that sugar futures were above the 20 cents per pound level last week. Sugar is approaching the first technical resistance level at the November 2021 20.69 cents high. Above there, the next target is at the October 2016 23.90 high, which is a technical gateway to the 2011 36.08 cents per pound peak.
Three factors support sugar prices in April 2022:
Rising inflation is lifting all commodity prices, and the trend is always your best friend in markets across all asset classes.
Rising crude oil and natural gas prices support sugar. Crude oil is over the $100 per barrel level, and natural gas stopped just short of $7 per MMBtu last week. Multi-year highs in the energy market support sugar as it is the primary input in Brazilian ethanol production. As more sugarcane goes into ethanol production, less is available for exports.
Sugarcane production costs are increasing as they are labor-intensive. The rising Brazilian real makes sugar more expensive to produce.
The chart illustrates the technical breakout to the upside in the Brazilian currency against the US dollar. A higher real increases the cost of production, putting upside pressure on sugar’s price.
Trading softs from the long side- Buy those dips
Stocks and bonds have been shaky in 2022, and cryptocurrencies have not yet of the slump that took prices lower since the November 2021 highs. Commodities have been the place to be for investors and traders over the first four months of 2022. The latest inflation report will likely keep the bullish party in raw material markets going.
I remain bullish on soft commodities as they are highly volatile and can offer explosive returns. Sugar is my top choice as of April 15, as the sweet commodity loosed poised to eclipse the 2021 high on its way to higher ground. Meanwhile, I favor all soft commodities in the current environment. The optimal approach to the sector has been buying on price weakness, and I expect that to continue. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and corrections can be the best route to optimizing returns over the coming weeks and months.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Orange Juice heading towards a clear resistance OJ is moving in a channel up movement and unstoppable in the past few weeks.
It looks like it's moving to the resistance at the level 169, 170 level which is both historical horizontal resistance and channel upper boundary.
Channel boundaries have worked reliably in the past to dictate the movement, and I am hoping it will be the case at 170. In the long run, I still think OJ is moving to the 220 region which is the ultimate test and massive historic resistance.
MsgFW : 📧 #LDR 🧃On The Loose🔑🔐👼🏻Please ?🍊
Lana Del Rey
Florida Kilo's
White lines, pretty baby, tattoos
Don't know what they mean
They're special, just for you
White lines, baking powder on the stove
Cooking up a dream, turning diamonds into snow
I feel you, pretty baby, feel me
Turn it up hot, loving you is free
I like it down, like it down way low
But you already know that
You already know
(Fuck!)
Come on down to Florida
I got something for ya
We could see the kilos or the Keys, baby, oh yeah
Guns in the summertime
Chic-a-Cherry Cola lime
Prison isn't nothing to me if you'll be by my side
Yayo, yayo, yayo
And all the dope fiends
Yayo, yayo, yayo
(Fuck!)
Sun in my mouth and gold hoops
You like your little baby like you like your drinks--cool
White lines, pretty daddy, go skiing
You snort it like a champ, like the winter we're not in
(Fuck!)
Come on down to Florida
I got something for ya
We could see the kilos or the Keys, baby, oh yeah
Guns in the summertime
Chic-a-Cherry Cola lime
Prison isn't nothing to me if you'll be by my side
Yayo, yayo, yayo
And all the dope fiends
Yayo, yayo, yayo
We could get high in Miami
Ooh, ooh
Dance the night away
People never die in Miami
Ooh, ooh
That's what they all say (Yay)
(You believe me, don't you baby?)
Come on down to Florida
I got something for ya
We could see the kilos or the Keys, baby, oh yeah
Guns in the summertime
Chic-a-Cherry Cola lime
Prison don't mean nothing to me if you'll be by my
Yayo, yayo, yayo
All the Floridians like
Yayo, yayo, yayo
All the Colombians like
Yayo, yayo, yayo
And all my girlfriends
Yayo, yayo, yayo
That's how we do it, like
Mm-mm, pretty baby
White lines, pretty baby
Gold teeth, pretty baby
Yeah, yeah, yeah
Dance the night away
🍊
Oranges and the Next Inflation CycleOJ1 Oranges have been building a higher low since spring of 2019 and completed the higher low in the Feb. 2020 crash.
With broad commodities CRB having formed a long-term cycle low in the 1Q2020 and the global economy already heating up and many commodities already breaking out of their multi-year downtrends (Uranium, industrial metals, agriculture), it has become increasingly clear that we are in the next re-flation (growth and inflation) cycle.
a higher low for oranges over a trend duration, at a time when most commodities hit all-time cycle lows, is a more structurally healthy bullish set up than most other commodities.
Gold and silver tend to be the popular way to express a bullish view on inflation, but during times when bond yields are rising with inflation, consumer and industrial commodities tend to outperform the precious metals.
View on Orange Juice (8/12)Bearish Bias.
Waiting for price to retrace before looking for a short trade.
Sl behind swing high.
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation.
I am not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activity
View on Orange Juice (24/10)Approaching towards the end of the fall with about few more weeks to go.
Looking bullish in the underlying product.
possible area price might head towards - 127
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation.
I am not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activity
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Further reading:
- Chart Every US Listed Futures Contract From ICE
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OJ THE SAFE HAVEN..
PROs:
Seasonally a good month for OJ
Broke through critical resistance at 122.05
Smart money hedgers are net long
Making higher lows on the weekly time frame, from the 6th March
Bearish sentiment amongst small speculators
OJ is in high demand due to COVID
Risk outlook is considered medium at this stage
CONs:
Demand is in a long term decline
Global oversupply of OJ
Negative divergence in play (2)
Highly volatile over the past 3 months (and in general)
Trading below strong overhead supply
Report:
The strong breakout above trendline resistance on the 20th of March 2020 at (1) was your first clue prices would probably head higher after ranging over the past 13 months. However, within a week OJ fell back to retest what is now dual support at (1), which was respected and has since bounced hard creating higher lows on the weekly time frame. The overall strength of this market is questionable as illustrated at (2).
Bottomcatcher’s Opinion: For short term traders a long position could be taken at the 124.00 handle with a stop loss in place at 121.35, and a target set at the 130.00 handle just below strong resistance at (3) and 50% fib level (taken from the highs of July 2018 and the lows of May 2019). For those in it for the long haul, a convincing break above resistance at (3) would be their buy signal with 145s as a first target, and 152s in extension as a second target to watch out for.
OJ Long - Our breakfast favourite a lot of OJ is going to be consumed whilst we stay at home with this COVID situation.
Demand is going up so price is going up
I might be a bit late to this party but let's see, COVID19 situation in USA is just starting and we know Americans like their OJ . #MakeAmericaGreatAgain
Is It Too Late To Buy Orange Juice ?The FCOJ-A futures contract is the world benchmark contract for the global frozen concentrated orange juice market.
Is it too late to buy Orange Juice ? I'll wait for the correction.
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