CAC40: On a verge of cross roads.
Rebounds 38.2% (May-July fall)
Daily oscillator appears bullish (inverse H&S pattern)
Weekly resistance seems between 5230- 5285
Propels above 5285, will extend the rally further to 61.8% @5320 and 80.0% @5385.
Support finds at 5160, 5100-5080
Sell below 5080 targets at 5000 and 4970.
F40 trade ideas
Short CAC 40 and other indices (long term)I can't believe that the invalidated Gartley pattern actually gave very important and extremely accurate Fibonacci levels on the CAC40. I traced the lines last year, and check out the 261,80%, 361,80% and 423,60% levels ... ! Everything above the 423,60% Fibonacci level from the Macron trade was very probably a fake out (bull trap). It would actually be interesting to see a variation of the Island Reversal here.
I would not be surprised to see the CAC hit again the 423,60% then the 161,80% lines ...
CAC Weekly planning to sellCAC Weekly bearish shark + alternate bat + possibly Bollinger Band reversal pattern
This all coincides within a monthly pin bar on the monthly at a very long term S/R level (+15yrs)
Looking for reasons to sell and watching for a indecision or bearish candle on the weekly to short
CAC40: It did the total opposite of what I was expecting in 2016Invalidation are as strong if not stronger than validation sometimes.
The interesting thing is that the CAC40 reached the top of the channel (or pitchfork) that I drew last summer. Let's see how it goes, when the DAX and the Dow Jones are making new All Time High.
CAC40 : long TP @ 6200Here is my updated view of the CAC in 4H timeframe.
We are currently on a huge support since it matches with the top of 2015.
If it holds and go beyond the wave 1 (@ 5442), we would go straight to 5750 which is a huge resistance and should then expect a deep retracement.
5950 is also in sight but it is not clear for the moment of the importance of it. Maybe a peak to chase the stops ? Will see when we get there...
In anycase the final target is set at 6200 which corresponds with the end of multiple cycles, including the largest one begun in 2012.
Please Mind the CACOn the 24th April the CAC 40 made a huge gap up, from 5050 to 5260. An incredible 4%. In fact it is the largest gap we can see historically as far back as 2008.
Gaps, as trades know, 'always' get filled. Statistically its more like 90% of the time.
Whether bullish or bearish on the European reflation story, this trade is the same.. French stocks are likely to pull back to close this gap, before either continuing on their rally, or otherwise.
Trade execution:
A conservative way to play this would be see the actual gap as being highest high previously, which is actually 5140 (blue line). A more aggressive short target would be the 5050 from where it jumped.