First Resistance: 40,728 Key Barrier: 40,896 Swing High: 44,045
๐ Technical Drivers
1. Fibonacci Confluence
Bull Scenario: 39,204 aligns with 78.6% retracement of rally from 41,400โ44,045. Bear Scenario: 40,896 matches 127% extension of recent consolidation range.
2. Momentum Indicators
RSI: Neutral at 49, showing hidden bullish divergence on 4H chart. MACD: Histogram turning positive near 39,814 support.
๐ก Intraday Trade Setups
Long Opportunity ๐ข (Intraday Buy)
Entry: 39,204 ๐ Stop Loss: 37,512 ๐ Take Profit 1: 40,379 ๐ฏ Take Profit 2: 40,728 ๐
Rationale:
Historical liquidity pool at 39,204 coincides with institutional bid clusters. Bullish hammer pattern observed on 4H timeframe.
Short Opportunity ๐ด (Intraday Sell)
Entry: 40,896 ๐ Stop Loss: 41,293 ๐ Take Profit 1: 40,030 ๐ฏ Take Profit 2: 39,465 ๐
Rationale:
Resistance confluence at 40,896โ41,293 aligns with options expiry gamma wall. Bearish volume surge during London session retests.
๐ Risk Management Protocol
Trail stops to entry after TP1 achievement in both setups. Monitor US retail sales data (15:30 GMT) for fundamental confirmation.
๐ Market Perspective
US30 consolidates between 39,465โ40,896. Favor fade strategies at range extremes with 1:2.5 risk-reward ratios. A decisive break above 41,293 or below 39,204 would signal trend acceleration.
US30 The Daily remains in Bearish Market Bias. A Gigantic move is still coming this week with the presence of the very tall Double Inside Day pattern.
We'll see if the explosive move will be to the downside. Here are some signs: - Bearish Market (directional) Bias; - The bullish and bearish trendlines (shown as red and green dotted lines) came together as a Pennant pattern to encourage moves to the downside; - Price action has been moving under a Falling Window (Gap Down) that still has not closed, so its strong forces of Resistance are still active; - And, continued consolidation within a very tall Inside Day pattern shows that a breakout from its high at 40,909 was rejected, so a true breakout can be towards the pattern's low at 38,400.
We'll see where the tight "coiling" from the Double Inside Day really springs out in a BIG way. Either to the downside or upside.
US30 The Hourly flipped from Bearish to Bullish (directional) Market Bias after crossing the Bullish Trendline (to the left side of the green dotted line). The bulls are in Overbought Territory, so a retrace to the downside is overdue.
If the bears step in for the retrace to the downside (to cross back to the right of the trendline), there may be a shallow one or a proper retrace towards 40,434 through Mean Reversion. But if the bulls keep rallying to breach the Swing High of 40,791, then more moves to the upside.
*Side Note: There's low volume behind the move of this bullish candle still forming, so the market makers are not participating.
US30 Don't Be Fooled! A Doji appeared (in yellow marker) within a bearish descent. That means that the bear run will continue until a bottom reversal pattern shows up. This is high-level trickery.
US30 
