Telkom Indonesia (TLKM): A Technical Setup You Can't Miss!Telkom Indonesia (TLKM) Stock Analysis
Date: January 22, 2025
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1. Technical Analysis
A. Support and Resistance:
• Strong support is observed at the 2,490 level (lower red line), which has been tested multiple times.
• Nearest resistance is at 2,870, with the next target resistance at 3,250.
B. Indicators:
• The 200-day SMA is at 2,955, indicating a long-term bearish trend as the current price remains below the SMA 200.
• RSI (14) stands at 54.42, suggesting moderate bullish momentum but not yet in the overbought area (>70).
• A rising RSI also indicates a bullish divergence, signaling a potential trend reversal.
C. Volume and Price Patterns:
• The price is moving sideways within a consolidation range of 2,490–2,870, with potential for a breakout if the 2,870 level is breached.
• A valid breakout could push the price towards 3,250.
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2. Recommendations
A. Daily Time Frame Supports Swing Trading:
• Analysis on the daily time frame is often utilized by swing traders to project price movements over weeks rather than days, especially when support and resistance levels are identified over a broad range (here: 2,490 to 3,250).
B. 3,250 Target as Major Resistance:
• Resistance at 3,250 is significant in the context of the chart. As a strong level, the price might take several weeks to reach it, especially if volume does not support an aggressive breakout.
C. RSI Divergence Requires Time:
• Bullish divergence on RSI typically indicates a larger trend reversal rather than minor movements. This suggests that a rise towards 3,250 is better viewed as a medium-term target, especially since TLKM remains below the 200-day SMA, meaning a new trend might take time to form.
D. Stop Loss:
• Set a tight stop loss below the support level of 2,490 to minimize potential losses.
Notes:
• Considering the above factors, the 3,250 target is more suitable for a medium-term swing trade rather than a short-term play:
1. The daily time frame supports multi-week price movement analysis.
2. The 3,250 target is a significant resistance level, likely requiring more than a few days to be reached.
3. The stock is still in a consolidation phase, requiring validation of a new trend for consistent upward movement.
4. For swing traders, use this analysis for a medium-term target (2-4 weeks).
5. For short-term traders, a target between 2,950 and 3,000 may be more realistic, taking quicker profits before reaching the major resistance at 3,250.
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3. Risk Management
A. Stop Loss:
• Set a stop loss at 2,490 to limit losses.
B. Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
• With a target of 3,250 and a stop loss at 2,490, the RRR is 1:1.
• This setup is suitable for traders willing to accept risk with equal potential rewards. Traders seeking higher RRR may consider raising the target price or narrowing the stop loss.
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4. Capital Management
• In the cash market, capital allocation should remain disciplined to manage risks effectively. Allocate 5-10% of the total portfolio for this position.
• For investors with higher confidence and risk tolerance, allocation may increase to 10-15%, given the clear support and resistance levels to guide disciplined execution.
• Avoid allocating more than 15% of the portfolio to a single stock to maintain diversification and mitigate adverse market impacts.
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Conclusion
Telkom Indonesia (TLKM) shows potential for a trend reversal, supported by bullish RSI divergence. A breakout above the 2,870 resistance level will confirm an entry point. However, investors should remain cautious about potential price retracements to the support area at 2,490, which could negate this bullish trend.
