NASDAQNasdaq is experiencing a bearish trend this week, with ongoing volatility expected as investors monitor trade policy impacts, technical indicators, and sector-specific performances.
NASDAQ trade ideas
Nasdaq - When Rebound? There is a possibility that another major wave 5 is possible here, just like on SPX
NASDAQ - Precision in Motion The 4H is locked into bearish intent, printing clear bearish structure and breaking a major low, setting the stage for further downside. But before the continuation, I see an opportunity—price needs to sweep liquidity. Instead of forcing shorts prematurely, I’m riding the bullish retracement into 4H supply, where the real decision-making happens.
For clarity, I’m dialing into the 2H—perfectly balanced for precision and structure, giving you all a crystal-clear view of how this setup unfolds. The game is patience, execution is key. Let’s see how price plays its hand.
Bless Trading!
NASDAQ: prepare for additional fallsNo market structure break on the daily.
Without a daily structure break, it is not a major correction.
I expect additional falls.
NASDAQ and Elliott Wave.A 5 Wave move to the upside started around mid October 2022. Wave 2 was a Zigzag and 4 should be a Flat as per the rules. Indeed Wave 4 is a Flat and we are currently on Wave B of the Flat marked in Black. As we know, Wave B of a Flat MUST have 3 Waves(Two impulse and one corrective) marked as A,B,C(all in Green) and we are on the last Wave(C) of Wave B. A retest on the Fib level 161.8% would trigger a Wave C(Black) which would be Wave 4. All analysis is backed by Math and Logic.
The Interest Rates Paradox and How it'd Predict a Market Top NowIt is a common assumption that higher interest rates naturally slow economic expansion and cool overheated markets.
However, the historical record over the past 50 years tells a more nuanced story when it comes to bubbles. In several major crashes—the dotcom bubble, the U.S. housing bubble, and the Japanese Nikkei bubble—a pattern emerges: monetary authorities began increasing rates well before market tops were reached.
Surprisingly, instead of slowing the market in the short term, these rate hikes coincided with a parabolic run-up in asset prices .
The paradox lies in the fact that while rising rates are expected to dampen market exuberance, during these bubbles, they coexisted with—and arguably even fueled—frenzied market behavior.
This paradox has played out yet again over the last years. With us seeing not only the parabolic rally phase during the interest rate hikes but also us having a current agreement with the interest rates and equites topping at the same time. As with all previous market tops. As we sit here today, we have followed the interest rate topping paradox to the letter.
Let's look more into it.
Historical Patterns and the Paradox
The Early Phase: Initial hikes into a heating up market.
In each of these historical cases, central banks initiated rate hikes as part of a broader strategy to temper what they viewed as emerging economic imbalances. In the late 1980s, for instance, the Bank of Japan began tightening monetary policy as asset prices soared, anticipating overheating in the economy. Despite these early rate increases, the Nikkei continued its upward trajectory, ultimately reaching its peak in December 1989. This pattern was echoed in the U.S. during the dotcom era. Leading into the 2000 peak, the Federal Reserve started to raise rates to control inflationary pressures—even as the technology-heavy market rallied to unsustainable heights.
The pattern has always been similar. Markets are starting to get hot and perhaps there's some unwanted consequence of this (like inflation). So the central bank takes actions to cool things down with the interest rate hikes. Although there have been reactions from this in the near term, overall the trend has become stronger and stronger during the hike cycle.
Let me give you an example to add some context. Alan Greenspan is famous for the "Irrational exuberance" comment. He said that in 1996! The Nasdaq absolutely boomed from there for another 4 years. What had happened before was nothing compared to what came after the interest rate hikes started.
The Parabolic Reaction: Markets Defy Conventional Logic
What seems paradoxical is that rather than a smooth deceleration, markets often reacted to these rate hikes with an intensified speculative fervor. During the dotcom and housing bubbles, small increases in rates did not immediately curb investor optimism; instead, they appeared to add urgency, fueling a belief that the market was resilient enough to outperform despite higher borrowing costs. The market’s parabolic rise in asset prices during periods of tightening monetary policy is counterintuitive, suggesting that investors were less influenced by the immediate cost of capital and more driven by momentum and fear of missing out.
By the high of these rallies it was firmly believed that this was a sign the uptrends would continue. Indeed, they could only get stronger as the interest rates came back down.
....Nah uh. Wasn't how it went all!
And we find ourselves in a strongly similar situation now in 2025.
Leveling Off and the Market Peak
It gets weirder still when you notice rather than markets slowing down on rate cuts they highs of the equites rallies always came rate increases eventually plateau.
Historical data shows that when interest rates stabilized—often within a narrow band of around 5% to 6.5%—this stabilization coincided with the market reaching its absolute peak. In these instances, the plateau did not signal the end of the monetary tightening cycle; rather, it marked the culmination of the bubble. Market participants, having pushed prices to their limits, were suddenly confronted with a reversion, as the underlying economic fundamentals could no longer justify the inflated asset values.
Knowing what happened before does not let you know what will happen in the future, but it's worth knowing. It may well just end up being useful in the future. In every instance of a big market top in the last 50 years the pattern was interest rate hikes and parabolic rallies in this phase, when the hikes stopped the first market sell off began.
We have an exact matching of these conditions now.
The Bear Market and Rate Easing
Once the market had peaked, and the bubble burst, central banks found themselves in a difficult position. In response to the ensuing economic downturns, monetary authorities were compelled to cut rates dramatically—even as equity markets remained subdued. This rapid reduction in rates was aimed at stabilizing economies and stimulating recovery, yet it often came too late to salvage the once-insatiable market exuberance. The inversion of the earlier paradox—where rate hikes were accompanied by soaring markets—serves as a stark reminder of the complexity of monetary policy in times of speculative excess.
All you have to do is look at any of the interest rate charts for the crash in question and it's clear to see these both peaked and reversed around the same time. During bubbles, historically correlation with equities and interest rates is close to prefect. From the start of our interest rate hikes to now, this has continued to apply.
A play out of the historical norms for this would now see rates continue to drop with equities dropping alongside them (Overall, maybe rallying on the news now and then).
Which would make this a rather risky time to be buying the dip.
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Realistic Examples of the Paradox
=================================
Nikkei Bubble (Late 1980s):
Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan initiated rate hikes to cool a rapidly expanding economy and soaring asset prices.
Market Behavior: Despite these increases, the Nikkei continued its parabolic climb, peaking in December 1989.
Aftermath: Following the bubble’s burst, rates were cut sharply as the market entered a prolonged bear phase.
Dotcom Bubble (Late 1990s to 2000):
Monetary Policy: In response to rising inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve began increasing rates before the bubble reached its zenith.
Market Behavior: Rather than curbing exuberance, the rate hikes coincided with an acceleration in market gains, contributing to an unsustainable rise in tech stock valuations.
Aftermath: The eventual plateau in rates occurred as the market hit its peak, soon followed by a dramatic downturn when investor sentiment shifted.
U.S. Housing Bubble (Mid-2000s):
Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve’s gradual rate increases were part of an effort to moderate the housing market’s explosive growth.
Market Behavior: Housing prices continued to rise, reflecting an underlying confidence in the market that outpaced the modest increases in borrowing costs.
Aftermath: When rates eventually leveled off, the market was near its peak, and subsequent rate cuts during the bear market underscored the stark reversal of fortunes.
Nasdaq daily time frame , Re-tesing the resistance NASDAQ (US Tech 100) 4H Analysis – Bullish Recovery in Progress
Market Structure & Trend Analysis:
The chart shows a strong downtrend, with price breaking below a rising channel earlier this month.
However, a bullish breakout from the falling wedge is now in play, indicating a potential trend reversal or retracement.
The price is approaching the 20,250 - 20,532 resistance zone, marked by previous support-turned-resistance.
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate resistance: 20,250 – 20,532 (previous support now acting as resistance).
Support zone: 19,921 – 19,500, where recent demand was seen.
Volume & RSI Analysis:
Volume is rising, confirming buying interest.
RSI at 64.48, showing bullish momentum but nearing overbought conditions.
Trade Considerations:
📈 Bullish Bias: If price breaks above 20,532, it could push towards 20,750+.
📉 Bearish Scenario: A rejection from resistance may lead to a pullback toward 19,921 support.
⚠️ Wait for confirmation: Either a breakout above 20,532 or a pullback for a better entry.
NASDAQ 4h analysesNASDAQ (US Tech 100) - 4H Analysis
Technical Overview:
The price has been in a strong downtrend, trading inside a descending channel.
Recently, it reached a potential support level around 19,375 - 19,500 and is showing early signs of reversal.
A breakout above the channel resistance could confirm a short-term bullish move.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zone: 19,375 - 19,500
Resistance Levels:
19,921 (First target)
20,532 (Second target)
Indicators:
RSI is rising from oversold conditions (below 40), which signals potential bullish momentum.
Volume is increasing at the bottom, suggesting possible buyer interest.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout (Higher Probability)
If price breaks above 19,921, we could see a move toward 20,532.
RSI moving above 50 would confirm strength.
Rejection & Continuation Down
If price fails to break 19,921, it could revisit 19,375 or lower.
Trading Plan:
Buy above 19,921 with a target of 20,532.
Sell below 19,375 if price rejects resistance and RSI turns lower.
Trumpcession continous - Maybe next week a little bounce? Here is my idea for the coming days. Due to Trump's unpredictable tariff policy and statements on geopolitical issues, I think that the daily low will be broken again this week and we will hit support at 18,500 points. In the event of an agreement in the Ukraine war, I expect an interim but short-term upward trend (recovery). However, I don't think this will happen before the weekend.
The 5 Wave move that was coined a Stock Market Crash(Elliott)This is a zoomed in chart of a previous post where we see two Stock Market Crashes in a single chart. The Financial Crisis of 2008 was simply the last wave of a 5 Wave move. There are two retests on different 423% Fibs. emphasizing the end of the larger correction which by the way began with the Dot-Com Bubble(another ''Stock Market Crash''). Follow @victorkmacharia on X for prediction of the next Stock Market Crash, insight that is actionable and a very different way to look at the market.
Two Stock Market Crashes explained in one chart(ELLIOTT)The first is the Dot-Com Bubble that happened in Early 2000. This was the end of Wave 1(Black) and a retest was on the horizon. The market corrected with a zigzag marked in Red late in March 2000. What followed was a sharp drop Wave A(Red), B correction, and a 5 Wave move to complete Wave C of the zigzag. The 5 Wave move to Red Wave C is supported by Math as it retests at exactly at the 423% of the Fibonacci and 161.8% of Red Wave A on a Monthly time frame.
The second Stock Market Crash is the Financial Crisis of 2008 which by the way is the largest Stock Market Crash in the last 80 yrs. Historically, it is only second to the Great Depression of 1929. Can it be explained in terms of Elliott Wave? Yes. It was part of Wave 5 after Green Wave C ended. In fact, from Blue Wave 4/C there is a clear 5 wave move with a zigzag as its first correction and a flat as its second. The Financial Crisis is Wave 5 after the mentioned second flat but is called a Stock Market Crash!!
All this is avoidable.
NAZDAQ - Weekly Forecast - Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasNASDAQ:NDX IG:NASDAQ
Midterm forecast:
20796.85 is a major resistance, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be downtrend.
Technical analysis:
A peak is formed in daily chart at 22254.20 on 02/18/2025, so more losses to support(s) 19337.48, 18815.60, 18313.47 and more depths is expected.
Trading suggestion:
There is possibility of temporary retracement to suggested Trend Hunter Sell Zone (20554.38 to 20796.85).
We wait during the retracement, until the price tests the zone, whether approaching, touching or entering the zone.
We would set sell orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (20554.38)
Ending of entry zone (20796.85)
Take Profits:
19901.88
19337.48
18815.60
18313.47
17841.19
16988.69
16247.08
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Nasdaq Weekly Rising Wedge NASDAQ 100 (1W) Technical Analysis – March 12, 2025
Market Structure & Breakdown:
The NASDAQ 100 has broken down from a rising wedge pattern, a bearish signal.
This breakdown led to a sharp sell-off, pushing the price to 19,423.
The next key support zone is highlighted around 18,000 – 17,500 (purple box), where buyers might step in.
Volume & RSI Analysis:
The latest red weekly candle is accompanied by high volume, confirming strong selling pressure.
RSI (14) is at 40.45, nearing the oversold zone (30). If RSI reaches or bounces from this level, it could indicate a reversal or at least a short-term bounce.
Potential Trading Scenarios:
Bearish Continuation:
If selling pressure continues, NASDAQ 100 may test the 18,000 - 17,500 support zone.
If this area breaks, further downside toward 16,000 - 15,500 is possible.
Bullish Rebound:
If buyers defend the 18,000 – 17,500 zone, a bounce back toward 20,000 could occur.
A retest of the broken wedge support (now resistance) is likely before any strong bullish move.
Key Takeaway:
Short-term bias: Bearish
Long-term trend: Still bullish, but in a correction phase
Watch for: Price reaction at the 18,000 – 17,500 support zone and RSI nearing oversold
Don't expect bounce in Crypto without #Nasdaq
#NASDAQ NEAR 10% DOWN AND TESTING SUPPORT OF RISING CHANNEL..
US index erased all post election gain. Interesting to see that will Trump come to support or he continue create uncertainty in market.
RSI reach below 30 , oversold. So we can expect a bounce from here..
Job data, CPI and FOMC meeting on March 19 will decide major move in coming days.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC range is FWB:83K -$95k nd FWB:73K -$110k
#bitcoin
New highs area +$1,000/share unlocked for NasdaqSeems like 2 months of sideways downtrending (since mid December) is over for Nasdaq.
Unless any surprise political shock news come out (we all know that can be a challenge with Trump) we could see Nasdaq reach $23,000 per share area in drawn upcoming green period.
This would also reflect directly on upward momentum for several bluechip stocks:
Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL
Microsoft Corporation NASDAQ:MSFT
Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ:AMZN
Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ:GOOGL
Meta Platforms Inc. NASDAQ:META
NVIDIA Corporation NASDAQ:NVDA
Tesla Inc. NASDAQ:TSLA
Intel Corporation NASDAQ:INTC
NASDAQNASDAQ is going long as a high-volume spike confirms strong buying momentum, signaling institutional participation and bullish continuation. The surge in volume indicates increased demand, supporting a breakout or trend continuation above key resistance levels
NASDAQ100 - WEEKLY DIVERGENCE, probably nothing..Along with other various charts, there is a few things that signals that a pullback/correction is imminent.
NAS100 SHORT This is with the H4 trend
There is a deep crab pattern on M15
All timeframes are overbought
This is the start of a NASDAQ crash as there are multiple signs on daily to show it has reached a high
Stop loss of 60 pips
dont bet against americado your homework, take your profits, set your stops, be patient and organised. among all the asset classes i follow these guys deliver the best returns, always!
NASDAQ - Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast: (Daily Time-frame)
20000.00 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
A trough is formed in daily chart at 20548.20 on 01/13/2025, so more gains to resistance(s) 21248.00, 21722.90, 22203.25 and more heights is expected.
Take Profits:
21248.00
21722.90
22203.25
22500.00
23000.00
23500.00
24000.00
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NASDAQ - In preparation for the great Q4 earnings!Hi guys, we would take a look into the NASDAQ 100 today.
Currently we have some of the biggest companies which will show their Q4 earnings by the end of January, just to name a few - Microsoft,AMD,Netflix,Google,JP Morgan,BlackRock,TSM,Tesla
These companies represent a very big portion of the NASDAQ Composite, and if they deliver some great numbers this would give the necessary boost that we need to push the price towards our target.
Currently from a fundamental perspective these earning calls , would end up providing the necessary benefitiary to boost up the prices , due to the sheer volume that would be generated.
From a Technical perspective : We can see that the price is currently situated on a very strong support level, with an additional boost from the RSI indicator which is showcasing a formulation of an Ascending pattern ahead.
Entry: 21,135
Target 1: 21,500
Target 2: 21,855
Target 3: 22,350
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
