DEU40 trade ideas
Confluence of Bearish Gartley 222 and Head & Shoulders When I saw this I believed it was a powerful confluence but up to until now it seems the market has other ideas.
Its a head and shoulders at the top with a gartley 222 butterfly pattern. these patterns have only managed to produce further accumulation with no significant drops.
It looks like my confluence will fail. Trade what you see and practise sound money management.
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?DAX40 (DE40) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 20,103.77
1st Support: 19,782.76
1st Resistance: 20,493.34
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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Technical Analysis for GER40 (DAX) for January 13-17Overall Trend : On the daily chart, PEPPERSTONE:GER40 ( XETR:DAX ) has been exhibiting a bullish trend, operating within an ascending channel. We are currently at the 50% mark of the ascending channel, a point of indecision at the moment, as signs of exhaustion are observed following significant upward movements, suggesting a potential short-term consolidation or correction down to 20,005 if the support area is breached.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance 1: 20,872 points
Resistance 2: 20,474 points
Support Area 1: 20,077 - 20,198 points
Support 2: 20,005 points
Chart Patterns and Technical Indicators:
Candlestick Patterns: Recently, indecision patterns such as dojis have formed on the daily chart, indicating a possible reversal or consolidation.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The daily RSI is near the overbought zone, suggesting that the asset may be overvalued and subject to a correction.
Wyckoff Analysis: A potential distribution phase is observed, where major players might be taking profits after the recent rally, preparing the market for a possible reversal or sideways movement.
Relevant Fundamental Factors: The German economy faces significant challenges, with a growth forecast of only 0.1% in 2025 after two years of contraction. Additionally, the recent political crisis has resulted in the collapse of the governing coalition, increasing economic and political uncertainty in the country.
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above the 50% mark of the ascending channel with significant volume, it may target the next resistance at 20,474 points. To confirm the continuation of the bullish trend, it is important for the RSI to remain at moderate levels, avoiding the extreme overbought zone.
Bearish Scenario: If the price loses the support area, it may accelerate the decline towards the next support at 20,005 points. A descending RSI would reinforce this scenario, indicating increased selling pressure.
DAX/SPX - long - increase of approx 50%DAX/SPX 'crashed' in March 2003 and then a higher low was created in February 2022. You see an upward trend – just like before from 1992 and (also) 1980 – with the yellow line being respected again (touched in November 2024). The yellow lines are exactly the same. I expect the top of the channel to be touched, so around 5. From the current level, that is an increase of about 50%.
We are on the eve of 1995, i.e. a rising stock market (final phase of the long-term bull market), but EU indices will overtake US indices for the time being.
See also my other idea, you see the same with AEX/SPX. European indices are lagging behind those of the US.
DAX H4 | Approaching all-time highDAX (GER30) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 20,510.80 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 20,800.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 20,013.22 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
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GER40: German Data and China Security RequirementsThe DAX, Germany's benchmark index, faces pressure from both economic data released this morning and China's new regulatory policies that directly affect European companies with operations in the Asian giant.
Impact of economic data in Germany
The economic data released reflects a cooling in the German economy, especially in exports (-2.9%) and industrial production (-1%). This particularly affects exporting companies, a key component of the DAX, such as Volkswagen, Siemens, and BASF, whose revenues are highly dependent on foreign demand.
Economic highlights:
1. MoM imports (November):
o Result: -0.1% (previous: 0.7%, expected: -3.3%).
o Imports show a slight contraction, indicating lower domestic demand for foreign goods. This can be interpreted as a cooling of the local economic activity.
2. Trade balance (November):
o Outturn: €13.4B (previous: €14.8B, expected: €19.7B).
o Although the trade surplus remains positive, it is below expectations, reflecting a drop in net trade due to a decline in both exports and imports.
3. MoM Exports (November):
o Outturn: -2.9% (previous: 2.0%, expected: 2.1%).
o The significant drop in exports indicates weaker demand from Germany's trading partners, which could be a reflection of a tougher global environment, especially in sectors such as automotive and machinery.
4. Industrial Production MoM (November):
o Outturn: -1% (previous: 0.5%, expected: 1.5%).
o Industrial production shows a larger-than-expected contraction, underscoring the weakness of the manufacturing sector, traditionally a backbone of the German economy.
China's regulatory requirements and their impact on DAX companies.
The German Index (Ticker AT: GER40), which represents leading German stocks, shows mixed performance today, influenced by the release of key economic data from the Eurozone and Germany. The results reflect signs of a slowdown in the industrial and commercial sector, which could lead to market volatility.
New security laws in China are forcing European companies to 'silo' their operations in the country, generating higher operational and strategic costs. This has significant implications for strategic sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals and technology, which are highly represented in the DAX:
1. Manufacturing and automotive sector (Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, Siemens, BASF):
o Companies are seeing how their subsidiaries in China must operate more independently, which increases regulatory compliance costs and reduces the efficiency of supply chains.
o Uncertainty about what constitutes a “security risk” in China affects the ability of these companies to plan long-term investments.
o Industrial companies such as Siemens, BASF and Volkswagen are showing declines due to the contraction in industrial production and exports. This economic data today can be interpreted as a sign of weakness in the German economic recovery.
2. Export Sector:
International trade-oriented companies, such as Daimler and BMW, could face further pressure from falling exports, especially in key markets such as Asia and the United States.
3. Financial sector:
Banks such as Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are stable as the data does not directly affect the financial sector, but the overall macroeconomic environment may influence their long-term projections.
4. Technology sector (Infineon, SAP):
o Technology companies are particularly exposed to the need to adapt their products and services to local regulations, which could limit their global competitiveness.
5. Pharmaceutical sector (Bayer, Merck):
o New regulatory requirements and lack of clarity on “made in China” labeling could limit access to public tenders in the country, affecting growth in a key market.
Overall implications for the DAX.
- Increased costs: Compartmentalization of operations implies additional costs in logistics, compliance and duplication of resources.
- Investment concerns: Companies could reduce their exposure in China due to regulatory uncertainty, impacting their growth prospects in the medium to long term.
- Impact on market sentiment: Sectors more exposed to China, such as automotive and technology, could see further pressure on their share prices, affecting the DAX's overall performance.
DAX technical outlook:
- The DAX has traded in a range these days between 20,384.43 and 20,241.58 points during the first hours of trading in a distribution phase. The current appearance of the long-term chart being a consolidated uptrend from January 6 with an uptrending crossover of averages.
- Key resistance at the Check Point (POC): 19,923.05 points on the daily chart, the last accumulation zone, a level to which the index could return if the economic data continues to disappoint, completing the corrective phase.
- Immediate support: It is located at the bottom of the range (20,241.58 points), which acts as a psychological barrier against further declines.
- Expected volatility: The RSI is at 48.54% in the middle zone. The combination of weak economic data and regulatory tensions in China could lead the index to test support levels in the coming sessions.
Conclusion
The DAX faces a challenging environment due to domestic economic weakness and external complications in key markets such as China. While global markets remain mindful of monetary policies, the lack of momentum in key sectors in Germany could limit the index's performance in the near term. Investors will be watching how companies adapt their operations to new regulatory requirements and upcoming macroeconomic data and statements from the European Central Bank, especially regarding the outlook for growth and monetary policy that could influence the index's outlook.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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Bullish bounce off pullback support?DAX40 (DE40) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 20,103.77
1st Support: 19,782.76
1st Resistance: 20,493.34
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DAX LOCAL SHORT|
✅DAX is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 20,530
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target at 20,180
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
GER40 SHORT SETUPGER40 has broken the intermediate 2H trend line after facing rejection near its ATH.
The market remains bullish but a short term short is on the horizon now.
The 50EMA on the Daily provides strong support to this market. We wait for a Bearish sign on the LTF to enter our shorts our wait for a retest of our intermediate Trend line on the 2H and rejection to enter shorts. With out Target being 19600-19800.
Upward movement Dax is currently retesting a breakthrough point at 19800, as the indice transitioned from bearish into a bullish momentum. If the indices stabilises above, it will likely kickstart a bull-run. Failure, to stabilise above the 19800 mark, the indice may continue downwards.
DAX / GER40 analysisThe PEPPERSTONE:GER40 XETR:DAX has exhibited a consistent bullish trend in recent months, trading within an ascending channel on the weekly chart. However, on the daily chart, signs of exhaustion are emerging following significant upward moves, suggesting a potential short-term consolidation or correction.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance 1: 20,261 points
Resistance 2: 20,481 points
Support 1: 19,202 points
Support 2: 19,028 points
The daily RSI is hovering near the overbought zone, indicating the asset may be overvalued and vulnerable to a correction.
A potential distribution phase is noted, where institutional players might be taking profits after the recent rally, setting the stage for a possible reversal or sideways movement.
Relevant Fundamental Factors:
The German economy faces significant headwinds, with growth projected at just 0.1% for 2025 following two years of contraction. Additionally, the recent political crisis, marked by the collapse of the governing coalition, has heightened economic and political uncertainty in the country.
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above the 20,261-point resistance with strong volume, it could target the next resistance at 20,481 points. To confirm the continuation of the uptrend, the RSI must remain at moderate levels, avoiding extreme overbought conditions.
Bearish Scenario: If the price breaches the 19,202-point support, it may accelerate toward the next support at 19,028 points or even the discount area. A declining RSI would reinforce this scenario, signaling increased selling pressure.
DAX/GER40 - TIME FOR A SHORT Team, we are SHORTING DAX at the current price 20422-32
STOP LOSS at 20465 can extend to 20515
Target 1 at 20390-76
Target 2 at 20349-16
Target 3 at 20267-20232
Enter slowly, once the first target hit, Take partial and bring stop loss to Entry level.
dax reversaltop of channel can be top for this year. daily and weekly RSI confirmed that winter is coming
DAX // neutral zoneThe market has turned south, after reaching the weekly target fibo 200, with a daily wave, and then tested the last clean daily breakout, but couldn't close above it.
It's between a daily breakout and a daily breakdown, that makes it a neutral zone. Leaving this zone (up north there is a clean H4 breakdown that may stop the bulls) puts the market either in the primary long expansion phase, or the countertrend expansion.
The target of the former is the weekly target fibo 213.2, the short target is the monthly breakout.
———
Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.
Level colors:
Daily - blue
Weekly - purple
Monthly - magenta
H4 - aqua
Long trigger - green
Short trigger - red
———
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
<<please boost 🚀 if you enjoy💚
DE30EUR/GER30 "GERMANY 30" Indices Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
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Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the DE30EUR/GER30 "GERMANY 30" Indices market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull trade at any point.
however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 1H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
Goal 🎯: 20700.0 (or) escape Before the Target
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Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️
Based on the fundamental analysis, I would conclude that the DE30EUR/GER30 "GERMANY 30" is: Bullish
Reasons:
Strong economic growth: Germany's economy is expected to grow at a rate of 1.8% in 2023, driven by a strong manufacturing sector, increasing business investment, and a rebound in the automotive industry.
Low unemployment rate: Germany's unemployment rate is at a historic low of 3.2%, which is expected to support consumer spending and economic growth.
Increasing corporate earnings: German companies are expected to report increasing earnings in 2023, driven by a strong global economy and a competitive euro.
Monetary policy support: The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept interest rates at a low level of 0.0%, which is expected to support borrowing and spending in the economy.
Fiscal policy support: The German government has announced a series of fiscal stimulus measures, including tax cuts and infrastructure spending, which are expected to support economic growth.
Bullish Factors:
Strong European economic growth, driven by strong consumer spending and investment.
Low interest rates, which can increase demand for stocks and reduce demand for bonds.
Potential for a rebound in the German economy, driven by a pickup in global trade and a resolution to trade tensions.
Growing investment demand for German stocks, driven by their potential for long-term growth and dividend yields.
Diversification benefits of investing in the German stock market, which can reduce portfolio risk and increase returns.
Some of the key stocks that make up the DE30EUR/GER30 index include:
SAP SE: A leading software company
Siemens AG: A leading industrial conglomerate
Bayer AG: A leading pharmaceutical company
Volkswagen AG: A leading automaker
Deutsche Bank AG: A leading financial institution
These stocks can have a significant impact on the performance of the DE30EUR/GER30 index, and investors should keep a close eye on their earnings and valuations when making investment decisions.
Market Sentiment:
Bullish sentiment: 75%
Bearish sentiment: 25%
Neutral sentiment: 0%
Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan.
Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
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DAX40: Breakout Retest OpportunityThe DAX40 has tested its daily support level and subsequently formed an accumulation range. Following a breakout to the upside, the price is now retesting its newly established support, presenting a promising buying opportunity.
DAX 40 BULLISHWith rising record highs despite underlying economic and political challenges in Germany. I currently see an uptrend in motion for the DAX 40:
1.) Anticipation of lower Interest Rates from the ECB
2.) Strong Performance of leading companies such is Rheinmetall and Siemens and Deutsche Telekom
3.)Historical trends and Patters this time of year
GER40 - Short Setup My main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower, this indicates on probable distribution Wyckoff range.
But to take more statistically probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and in this case we can notice sign of weakness (reaching the middle of the range), so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower.
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
4-hr Germany 40: Getting Ready for 500 Points Increase The German DAX 40 saw impressive gains of over 1,500 points between mid-November and mid-December. However, following comments from the Fed, the index corrected nearly 800 points, reaching the crucial 50% Fibonacci retracement level. For the past three weeks, the DAX 40 has held above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, signaling that bulls may be regaining control.
Supporting this bullish outlook is today’s Golden Cross, a classic buy signal and an indicator of strong upward momentum. Based on this setup, we favor entering a buy position but will wait for a potential 100-point dip to secure a better risk-to-reward ratio.
Buying near 19,950 offers a strategic entry point, with a target set at December’s swing high of 20,450. This target aligns with the potential formation of a Double Top pattern, a critical resistance level. If the bullish momentum persists, this strategy positions us well for capitalizing on the DAX 40's upward trajectory.
Fri 2024 12 13 Long||| Stats |||
Stats Week:
** Mid Month Turn,
** US CPI: 14:30, - as expected,
** Thu EU GC 14:15:, - reduced as expected,
** Mon Morning rule, - yes,
** Tue return to W1 trend and not a W1 trend change, - yes
Stats Month:
** Christmas Rally - start Mid Nov. - yes bottom
** Christmas Rally - US election year, start Dec. - yes
Stats Year:
** US Election,
||| Trade Taken |||
Trade Taken:
** Time frame:
* H3
** Time:
* 03pm,
Set-Up:
** Trigger for trade:
* Momentum Long,
* Mon Morning rule,
* Tue return to W1 trend - UP,
* Senti, - P16,
** Mom Width:
* 6 candles - med/strong,
** Mom Type:
* 3rd directional - risk at last Mom turn,
Risk Reward:
** Risk:
* last Mom Turn,
** Target:
* R 1:1 as at ATH,
Thu 2025 01 03 Long8am double ovn green, second exceeding close. H4 Hammer after midnight. Break up of bull flag in complex bear flag.
Risk: low of 2nd Jan
R/R: 1:1 as range territory and trend not confirmed yet
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
Analysis
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Germany 40 maintains its bullish correction phase, currently trading at 19,937, below the VWAP (20) of 20,121. Support is positioned at 19,680, while resistance is at 20,562. The RSI at 50 reflects neutral momentum, indicating a pause in the prior uptrend.
UK 100 index remains neutral within its long-lasting consolidation phase, trading at 8,218, slightly above the VWAP (20) of 8,183. Support is at 8,040, with resistance at 8,326. An RSI of 55 signals moderate momentum, hinting at slight bullish tendencies within the range.
Wall Street is in a bullish correction phase, trading at 42,375, below the VWAP (20) of 43,064. Support is located at 41,941, with resistance at 44,188. The RSI at 32 suggests oversold conditions, potentially signaling a reversal higher.
Brent Crude has finally flipped from its sideways range into a new bullish impulsive phase, trading at 7,642, above the VWAP (20) of 7,361. Support is at 7,144, while resistance is at 7,578. The RSI at 70 indicates overbought momentum, suggesting near term caution for further upside.
Gold remains neutral in a consolidation phase, trading at 2,658. It has just broken back over the VWAP (20) of 2,635, which has defined the top of a short-term range. Support is at 2,574, and resistance is at 2,695. The RSI at 55 shows balanced momentum with a new bullish tilt, but still consistent with the ongoing range-bound market.
EUR/USD remains very bearish with euro-dollar parity coming into view. It is in an impulsive phase, trading at 1.0267, below the VWAP (20) of 1.0428 . Support is at 1.0297, with resistance at 1.0559. The RSI at 28 highlights oversold conditions, suggesting potential downside exhaustion.
GBP/USD is in a bearish impulsive phase, breaking down below a rising trendline drawn by Autotrend trading at 1.2380, below the VWAP (20) of 1.2589. Support is positioned at 1.2416, with resistance at 1.2761. The RSI at 30 indicates bearish momentum, with the oversold level consistent with a strong downtrend.
USD/JPY continues its bullish impulsive phase, trading at 157.35, above the November high and the VWAP (20) of 155.76. Support is at 151.82, with resistance at 159.70. The RSI at 62 reflects strong upward momentum, supporting the bullish trend.
