DXY trade ideas
DOLLAR I Monday CLS I KL - HTF FVG / OB I Continuation setupHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument
If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model.
If you haven't followed me yet, start now.
My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution.
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
🛡️ Models 1 and 2:
From my posts, you can learn two core execution models.
They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
📍 Model 2
occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range.
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— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0.
If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown.
Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time.
It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year.
The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market.
The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending).
Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities.
What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years.
All the best,
Tim
April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
USDX,DXYUSDX price is near the important support zone 98.23-97.75. If the price cannot break through the 97.75 level, it is expected that in the short term there is a chance that the price will rebound.
**Very Risky Trade
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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DXY - Is a relief bounce to the 4-h FVG coming?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been in a clearly defined downtrend over the recent period, showing consistent lower highs and lower lows. During its latest downward move, the DXY formed a 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG), which aligns with a significant gap in price action. This confluence of technical factors marks a strong rejection area, and from a trading perspective, it presents an ideal zone to consider short positions, especially if bearish price action confirms the setup.
Currently, however, the DXY is sitting at a major support level. This level has historically acted as a demand zone, and given the extended move downward, a bounce or retracement to the upside is a realistic scenario. Traders should stay alert for signs of bullish momentum or reversal patterns, as the potential for a temporary recovery from this support is not unlikely before any continuation of the broader trend.
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DXY SINGLING DANGER! UPTADE! Bad things happen when the dollar gets too strong....
Well, "the bad thing" now seems to be the dollar itself crashing lower.
What a difference 2 months can make!
Waging economic war against our allies, pulling military defense from allies, isolationism has not been working as expected. In fact, Trump has overplayed his cards, and his tactics are backfiring.
CAUTION is in order!!
Target not reached! Forced on me.
As mentioned back on January 18, 2025, when the dollar gets this strong, bad things happen.
As you can now all see, bad things did happen. Markets are crashing, and we are headed for an economic depression!
WARNING!
2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar (Part Two)📉💵 2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar: Part Two 🔄🔥
Part 1:
As we kick off the week on April 21st, we find gold hitting historic highs of $3,400 while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to slide — down 1.42% and firmly below the psychological 100 level. 📉 The breakdown at 99.3 confirms what we mapped out months ago.
Back in February, I highlighted the rejection at the 107.5 level and predicted that 2025 would mark The Year of the Normalized Dollar. That vision is unfolding exactly as drawn.
🔍 Technical Breakdown Recap
Rejection Zone: 107.5
Mid Support Breached: 100.95
Breakdown Level: 99.3
Next Target Range: 94.6–93.7 🧭
The visuals attached here are not new drawings — this is the same framework from my February 25th analysis, and it's playing out beautifully. 📊 The DXY is on a structural path toward normalization, aligning with macro policy shifts.
🗣️ Policy Catalyst
The dollar’s weakness isn’t just technical — it’s political and economic. Trump’s continued pressure on the Fed to slash interest rates, combined with tariff talk and geopolitical realignment, is creating a push toward a weaker but more "normalized" dollar.
From the Executive Order remarks on Jan 23, 2025:
“I'd like to see interest rates come down a lot. When oil comes down, prices come down — and then no inflation.”
These aren't just words — they're shaping market expectations and price action.
💬 Is this the soft landing the Fed is hoping for? Or the beginning of something bigger for DXY bears?
Drop your thoughts below and let’s keep the conversation rolling.
🎯 Charts attached for reference.
📢 Follow for more macro breakdowns & chart-focused insights.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
DXY Correction Persists: Further Downside Potential in FocusThe DXY remains in a prevailing downtrend, and I estimate that it is currently in the final stages of wave (v) of wave . The correction is projected to extend toward the 97.023–97.739 area. Meanwhile, the nearest potential rebound zone is located between 99.690 and 100.764.
DXY Forms a Contracting Triangle: Awaiting BreakoutDXY Forms a Contracting Triangle: Awaiting Breakout
On the 60-minute chart, DXY has developed a contracting triangle, which is typically a trend continuation pattern, suggesting a potential downward move.
However, since this consolidation is taking time and DXY’s price action remains complex, movement in either direction is possible.
The breakout will ultimately determine the next price direction, but based on current conditions, an upward move seems more likely in the near future.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
.DXY M30 ANALYSIS UPDATES
🕒 **DXY M30 Analysis**
📉 Price touched the **support zone** at **97.70 – 97.78** after a strong sell-off.
🔁 A **potential reversal** is forming at this level – key area to watch!
📈 If bulls take control, next targets:
- 🔹 **98.60** (interim resistance)
- 🔹 **99.62 – 99.70** (major resistance zone)
⚠️ Keep an eye on price action around 98.06 – confirmation needed before any long entries.
#DXY #M30 #ForexAnalysis #USD #ReversalZone 🚀📊
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DXY on Its Way Back to 100?During Monday’s Asian session, the index saw a sharp selloff, and in the past few hours, price has entered a consolidation phase.
The current idea is that price may push higher toward the 99.17–99.26 range — and potentially beyond — in an attempt to retrace the start of that bearish impulse. There’s also a gap formed in that area.
This scenario would be invalidated if price starts dropping below 97.90.
Elliott Wave Principles: A Study on US Dollar IndexHello friends, today we'll attempt to analyze the (DXY) US Dollar Index chart using Elliott Wave theory. Let's explore the possible Elliott Wave counts with wave Principles (Rules).
We've used the daily time frame chart here, which suggests that the primary cycle degree in Black weekly wave ((A)) and ((B)) waves have already occurred. Currently, wave ((C)) is in progress.
Within wave ((C)) in Black which are Weekly counts, Subdivisions are on daily time frame, showing Intermediate degree in blue wave (1) & (2) are finished and (3) is near to completion. Post wave (3), we can expect wave (4) up in Blue and then wave (5) down in Blue, marking the end of wave ((C)) in Black.
Additionally, within blue wave (3) Intermediate degree, we should see 5 subdivisions in red of Minor degree, which is clearly showing that waves 1 & 2 are done and now we are near to completion of wave 3 in Red. followed by waves 4 and 5, which will complete blue wave (3).
Key Points to Learn:
When applying Elliott Wave theory, it's essential to follow specific rules and principles. Here are three crucial ones:
1. Wave 2 Retracement Rule: Wave two will never retrace more than 100% of wave one.
2. Wave 3 Length Rule: Wave three will never be the shortest among waves 1, 3, and 5. It may be the largest most of the time, but never the shortest.
3. Wave 4 Overlap Rule: Wave four will never enter into the territory of wave one, meaning wave four will not overlap wave one, except in cases of diagonals or triangles.
Invalidation level is a level which is decided based on these Elliott wave Principles only, Once its triggered, then counts are Invalidated so we have to reassess the chart study and other possible counts are to be plotted
The entire wave count is clearly visible on the chart, and this is just one possible scenario. Please note that Elliott Wave theory involves multiple possibilities and uncertainties.
The analysis we've presented focuses on one particular scenario that seems potentially possible. However, it's essential to keep in mind that Elliott Wave counts can have multiple possibilities.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
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However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Dollar Index - Further Capitulation On the Horizon?It's like a gaping wound that refuses to heal, spewing blood everywhere!
Dollar index has been falling like a ton of bricks from the beginning of this year with little to no signs of retracing back into equilibrium and the question to ask yourself is.... will the 90-day ban restore dollar index above the 100 mark?
Or will be continue to see risk on scenarios?
Smart Traders Watch the Fed — Smarter Ones Watch the DollarHello Traders 🐺
In this idea, I decided to talk about the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) — because so many people have been asking me:
“How do you predict the Fed’s moves, and how do they affect deflationary assets like BTC?”
My last idea was about BTC, where I explained why I believe a major bull run is coming — and part of that is because the Fed might soon shift back to QE.
But if you're trying to predict QE...
The first thing you need to watch is the U.S. Dollar Index, which reflects the strength of the U.S. Dollar.
So let’s break it all down:
🔍 Part 1: What Does the Fed Actually Do?
The Fed isn’t just a printer — it’s the U.S. central bank, and it has a dual mandate:
✅ Keep prices stable (control inflation)
✅ Promote maximum employment
That means the Fed doesn’t just want growth — it wants sustainable growth. No crazy inflation, no deep recession. Balance is key.
🧰 How Does the Fed Do It?
Through Monetary Policy, which is basically the toolkit used to control liquidity, interest rates, and economic behavior (like how much people borrow, spend, or save).
Let’s break down the main tools:
1️⃣ Federal Funds Rate
This is the most powerful tool the Fed has.
It’s the rate banks use to lend to each other overnight.
If the Fed raises the rate:
→ Loans get expensive
→ Spending slows
→ Inflation drops
→ But markets can crash
If the Fed cuts the rate:
→ Loans get cheaper
→ Demand rises
→ Growth accelerates
→ But inflation can surge
2️⃣ Open Market Operations (OMO)
This is how the Fed injects or removes liquidity using bonds.
Buys bonds → Injects money → 🟩 QE (Quantitative Easing)
Sells bonds / lets them expire → Removes money → 🟥 QT (Quantitative Tightening)
3️⃣ Reserve Requirements
This used to be a big deal — the % banks had to hold in reserves.
But since 2020, it's set to 0%.
4️⃣ Discount Rate
The interest rate the Fed charges banks directly.
A change here sends a strong signal to the markets.
Sometimes the Fed also works in sync with the U.S. government — using fiscal support like:
💸 Stimulus checks
🏢 Corporate bailouts
🧾 Tax relief packages
📈 So... Why Does the Dollar Index (DXY) Matter?
There’s a very clear inverse correlation between the DXY and BTC.
When the dollar gets stronger (DXY pumps), BTC usually dumps.
Why? Because rising DXY often means:
🔺 The Fed is raising rates
🔺 Liquidity is being pulled out
🔺 QT is in play
Let me show you some real chart examples:
📉 July 2014 — DXY pumped → BTC dumped hard
DXY Chart:
BTC Chart:
➡️ Just a 28% DXY pump → 80% BTC crash. Ouch.
📈 2017 — DXY dropped → BTC entered full bull market
DXY Chart:
BTC Chart:
➡️ A 15% DXY drop → Bitcoin bull run of a lifetime.
Now here’s the good news 👇
DXY is starting to look very bearish on the chart:
Combine that with the Fed shifting to QE, and guess what?
We're likely entering the early stages of another bull market.
If you read my last BTC idea, you already know what I’m expecting...
🚀 A massive run is just around the corner.
I hope you found this idea useful, and as always —
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
USD Index: A Possible Reversal in Sight?Since early February, right after Trump’s inauguration, the USD Index (DXY) has been under pressure, falling sharply by over 10%.
However, after hitting the 98.00 level, things seem to have stabilized. We're seeing the early signs of a relief rally.
🔍 Technical Perspective:
- This week’s candlestick pattern suggests a bullish reversal.
- The dip on Wednesday was quickly bought, showing buyer interest.
- A minor correction occurred yesterday, but dips are being well supported.
- Currently, the DXY trades around 99.60, just under the psychological level of 100.
🎯 Outlook:
As long as 98 remains intact, the bias shifts towards a potential rebound.
First target: 102 – a logical resistance zone and prior support.
This is not yet a confirmed trend reversal, but the price action is shifting. The key now is how the market reacts around the 100 level. A break above could trigger further bullish momentum.