DXY trade ideas
Bearish continuation?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot an could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 103.26
1st Support: 101.79
1st Resistance: 104.68
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Weekly FOREX Forecast: Buy EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD vs USDThis is an outlook for the week of April 7 - 11th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
CAD
CHF
JPY
Wait for the market to tip its hand! Monday is a no red folder news day. Great time to let the markets settle on a direction.
Trading a market after a huge push in one direction can be tricky. There is likely to be a pullback before continuing the overall trend. Bear this in mind with the USD.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - Bearish Breakdown or Reversal?📊 U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - 4H Chart Analysis
🔵 Supply Zone (104.400 - 104.683)
🟦 Resistance area where sellers may step in 📉
🟡 Key Level (~104.200)
🟧 Decision point – price struggling to hold this level
📉 Trend Line (Broken) 🔻
❌ Previous uptrend is broken, signaling potential bearish momentum
🟢 Demand Zone (103.200 - 103.400)
🟩 Support area where buyers may get active 📈
🚀 Potential Market Movement:
1️⃣ Bearish Breakdown Expected ⬇️
🔹 Price broke below trendline ➡️ selling pressure increasing
🔹 Possible pullback to key level (~104.200) before more downside
🔹 Targeting demand zone (~103.200-103.400) 🎯
2️⃣ Invalidation/Stop-Loss 🚫
🔺 If price moves back above 104.683, bearish setup is invalid
🔺 Stop-loss placed at 104.683 for risk management
🎯 Trading Strategy:
✅ Short Entry: After pullback near 104.200
🎯 Target: 103.200 demand zone
⚠️ Stop Loss: Above 104.683
DXY PULLBACK EXPECTED|SHORT|
✅DXY surged again to retest the resistance of 103.400
But it is a strong key level
So I think that there is a high chance
That we will see a bearish pullback and a move down
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DXY (USDX): Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
BEST,
MT
DXY Outlook: Will Trump’s Tariff Shock Fuel a Run to 106?DXY Technical Outlook – April Week 2
After Trump’s tariff announcement shook the markets last week, the Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply into an extreme daily demand zone (102.000–101.500) and responded with strong bullish pressure by Friday’s close.
If fear continues into Monday, DXY could extend higher. The key area to watch is 103.500, a solid resistance zone. A clean breakout above this level could trigger an aggressive rally toward 105.500–106.000, where major supply lies.
Bias: Bullish
Key Levels:
• Support: 102.000 – 101.500 (extreme demand zone)
• Resistance 1: 103.500
• Resistance 2: 105.500 – 106.000
This week, USD could be one of the strongest assets if risk-off sentiment continues and equity markets remain under pressure.
—
Weekly forecast by Sphinx Trading
Let me know your bias in the comments.
#DXY #USD #DollarIndex #ForexAnalysis #SphinxWeekly #TrumpTariffs #RiskOff #MacroView
Will the DXY Hold the $109 Level Amid Bearish Patterns and CPI?The DXY is currently forming a bearish chart pattern as it awaits the release of today's CPI data. The key question remains: will the $109 support level hold firm, or is a breakdown imminent? I’d love to hear your analysis and insights on this critical matter.
DXY Index: Wave Analysis & ForecastHi tradars!
Based on the DXY index, considering the deep overbought conditions on the 4-hour timeframe and the reversal of indicators on the 1-hour timeframe, we can assume that subwave ((iii) within the larger third wave has now been formed.
It reached approximately 100% of subwave ((i)), and in the coming week, we expect the development of wave 4. After that, likely next week—closer to the Federal Reserve meeting—we could see the continuation of the bearish rally in DXY from around the 104.70 level.
Currently, the chart displays the primary wave count. Let’s see if this scenario plays out.
#DSI #WaveAnalysis #Forex #Trading #FedMeeting
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Weekly Outlook | Elliott Wave Analysis
This DXY weekly chart highlights a potential (A)-(B)-(C) corrective structure unfolding after a completed 5-wave impulsive rally. Wave A bottomed out around the 100 level, followed by a retracement in Wave B which tested the 111.893 supply zone. Currently, price is reacting strongly from that level, suggesting a possible move toward completing Wave C.
Current Market Structure:
Wave B faced strong rejection near the 111.893 resistance/supply zone.
Price is now hovering near a short-term support zone (light green) around 102–100, which could serve as a decision point.
Two scenarios are in play:
1. Bullish Rejection from Support: If buyers defend the support, a new bullish leg may begin, retesting 111.893 or even pushing slightly higher.
2. Break Below Support: A decisive breakdown could initiate a deeper decline toward the major demand zone (highlighted in beige) near 90.00–92.50, completing Wave C.
Key Technical Zones:
Resistance (Supply Zone): 111.893
Immediate Support: 100.00–102.00
Major Demand Zone (Wave C Target): 90.00–92.50
Current Price: 102.892
Elliott Wave View:
The ongoing move appears to be part of a Wave C correction, which will be confirmed only if price breaks below the current support. On the flip side, a higher low and bullish continuation could mean the correction ended early, transitioning into a fresh impulse.
Conclusion:
The DXY is at a critical juncture. Traders should monitor price action closely at the 100–102 zone. A bounce could trigger a bullish setup back toward resistance, while a breakdown would likely bring Wave C to completion in the 90–92.50 zone.
Stay tuned and trade with discipline.
DXY Breaking Down?The US Dollar Index (DXY) may be entering a strong bearish wave. After completing wave B, the market has started impulsive wave C to the downside. Currently, wave 3 might be ending, with a potential short-term bounce for wave 4, followed by a drop into wave 5.
Key Bearish Outlook:
Resistance Zone (Wave 4): 104.924 – 104.932
Invalidation Level: 106.505
Final Wave 5 Target: Near 93.422
If price stays below the invalidation level, more downside is expected. Watch for shorting opportunities if wave 4 completes and reverses.
DXY Technical Outlook📊 DXY (US Dollar Index) – Daily Analysis
Market Structure:
📉 DXY remains in a bearish structure on the daily, making lower highs and lower lows.
💥 Price is currently testing the key 102.812 support level.
-Previous Trend: The market had a strong bullish move from around October to late December 2024.
🌎 Ongoing tariff tensions between the US and other countries have increased market volatility.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
✅ If DXY sustains above 102.812, a push towards 104.223 resistance is possible.
🚀 A clean break and retest above 104.223 could open the way for continuation towards 105.67 and 107.170.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
⚠️ If DXY fails to hold above 102.812, expect a drop towards 101.500.
🔄 In this case, 102.812 could flip into new resistance, confirming bearish momentum.
📉 A breakdown below 101.500 would likely expose DXY to the 100.000 psychological support level.
🔻 Tariff-driven risk-off sentiment could accelerate the move lower.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a trading signal. Market conditions can change rapidly, especially with ongoing tariff talks and geopolitical developments. Always confirm market conditions using your own strategy before making any trading decisions.
How Worrying is the Weakening Dollar? A Departure from TraditionThe value of a nation's currency is a critical barometer of its economic health and global standing.1 Typically, in times of international turmoil or economic uncertainty, the U.S. dollar, as the world's reserve currency, tends to strengthen.2 This "safe-haven" effect is driven by increased demand for the dollar as investors seek stability and liquidity. However, recent trends have seen the greenback exhibit a notable weakening, even amidst persistent global anxieties.3 This begs the crucial question: how worrying is this deviation from the norm, and what are the potential implications for the U.S. and the global economy?
To understand the significance of a weakening dollar, it's essential to first recognize the factors that typically influence its strength. These include interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, the overall performance of the U.S. economy relative to others, trade balances, and geopolitical stability.4 Higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the dollar and thus its value.5 Strong economic growth similarly boosts confidence in the currency.6 Conversely, high inflation erodes the dollar's purchasing power, while a significant trade deficit (importing more than exporting) can indicate an oversupply of the currency in global markets, leading to depreciation.
Historically, during periods of global crisis, the dollar has often acted as a port in a storm. Events like geopolitical conflicts, financial market meltdowns in other regions, or global pandemics have typically triggered a "flight to safety," with investors flocking to the perceived security and liquidity of U.S. dollar-denominated assets, thereby strengthening the currency.7 This was evident during past crises, where the dollar often appreciated as investors sought refuge from volatility elsewhere.
The current weakening of the dollar, therefore, raises eyebrows precisely because it seemingly contradicts this established pattern. While global uncertainties persist – ranging from ongoing geopolitical tensions in various parts of the world to concerns about the pace of global economic growth – the dollar has not consistently exhibited its traditional strengthening behavior. This departure suggests that underlying factors might be at play, potentially signaling deeper concerns about the U.S. economic outlook or the dollar's long-term standing.
One potential reason for this weakening could be a shift in relative economic strength. If other major economies are perceived to be on a stronger growth trajectory or offering more attractive investment opportunities, capital might flow away from the dollar, putting downward pressure on its value. For instance, improvements in economic prospects in the Eurozone or emerging markets could lead investors to diversify their holdings, reducing their reliance on the dollar.
Furthermore, concerns about the U.S.'s fiscal health, including rising national debt and persistent budget deficits, could also contribute to dollar weakness. While the dollar's reserve currency status has historically provided a buffer, a sustained period of fiscal imbalance could eventually erode investor confidence in the long-term value of the currency.8
Another factor to consider is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. While higher interest rates typically support a stronger dollar, expectations of future rate cuts or a more accommodative monetary stance could dampen investor enthusiasm for dollar-denominated assets. If the market anticipates that the Fed will need to lower rates to support economic growth or combat deflationary pressures, this could lead to a weakening of the dollar.9
The implications of a weakening dollar are multifaceted and can have both positive and negative consequences for the U.S. economy. On the positive side, a weaker dollar makes U.S. exports more competitive in international markets, as they become cheaper for foreign buyers.10 This could potentially boost U.S. manufacturing and help to narrow the trade deficit. Additionally, a weaker dollar can increase the value of earnings that U.S. multinational corporations generate in foreign currencies, as these earnings translate into more dollars when repatriated.
However, the downsides of a weakening dollar can be significant. Firstly, it makes imports more expensive for U.S. consumers and businesses.11 This can lead to higher prices for a wide range of goods, potentially fueling inflation.12 For businesses that rely on imported components or raw materials, a weaker dollar can increase their costs of production, which may eventually be passed on to consumers.
Secondly, a sustained weakening of the dollar could erode its status as the world's reserve currency. While this is a long-term prospect, a decline in the dollar's dominance could have significant implications for the U.S.'s ability to borrow cheaply and exert influence in the global financial system.13
Thirdly, a weakening dollar could lead to concerns among foreign investors holding U.S. assets, such as Treasury bonds. If they anticipate further depreciation of the dollar, they might become less inclined to hold these assets, potentially leading to higher U.S. borrowing costs in the future.
In conclusion, the current weakening of the dollar, particularly in the face of ongoing global uncertainties where it would typically strengthen, is a trend that warrants careful attention. While a moderate depreciation can have some benefits for U.S. exports, a sustained or significant weakening could signal underlying economic vulnerabilities or a shift in global investor sentiment towards the greenback. Factors such as relative economic performance, U.S. fiscal health, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will likely play a crucial role in determining the future trajectory of the dollar. The departure from its traditional safe-haven status serves as a reminder that the dollar's dominance is not immutable and underscores the importance of maintaining sound economic policies to underpin its long-term strength and stability. Monitoring these trends will be critical for understanding the evolving global economic landscape and its implications for the United States.
DXY TO REGAIN BULLISH STRENGTH!DXY has been moving in a local channel indicating a short term bearish trend. What next do we expect especially as we saw a BETTER THAN EXPECTED NFP OUTCOME
From the technical standpoint, I anticipate a bullish sentiment to continue to grow till 106.591. If we’d get a break above the upper resistance of the descending channel, a buy opportunity is envisaged.
Dollar index scenario Nfp day 04/04/2025English : According to our analysis, we anticipate THIS bullish scenario with an negative result of NFP .
Morocan Darija : kanchofo d'apres l'analyse reda Nfp aykherj Négative dakchi 3lach anchofo dollar bullish besabab Nfp ila kherj negative hadi sign positive 3la interest rate.
ATENTION : I only share my ideas, not signals.