PL Dot Shapes (Detailed Summary)This idea shall focus on the behavior and structure of PL Dot Shapes, which are crucial in identifying market trends, congestion phases, and potential reversals. Let's deep dive on how to interpret PL Dot formations and recognize patterns that signal market movements.
1. Understanding PL Dot Behavior
- Trend:
PL Dots form a straight line, indicating a clear market direction. A trend stops when the market enters congestion.
- Congestion:
PL Dots move horizontally or “snake” sideways, signaling indecision or balance between buyers and sellers.
- Higher Time Period (HTP) Influence:
PL Dots from the HTP influence those in the Lower Time Period (LTP). Inconsistencies between them may indicate no clear pattern.
- Dot Distance:
Refers to the vertical price difference between consecutive PL Dots.
- Increasing Dot Distance: Indicates trend continuation or strength.
- Decreasing Dot Distance: Suggests trend exhaustion or potential reversal.
2. Key PL Dot Patterns
✅ Yes Pattern (Energy Termination Pattern)
Indicates the end of a trend and potential reversal. This pattern is characterized by signs of exhaustion:
1. PL Dot Pullback: PL Dot moves off the main trend channel, and the angle starts sloping down.
2. Decreasing Dot Distance: Dots get closer together, signaling waning momentum.
3. Exhaustion Signs: The dot pulls within range, with closes moving towards the PL Dot, causing congestion entrance.
4. Block Occurrence: Price likely returns to the area of 2-3 dots back.
5. Crest Formation: A PL Dot crest forms, indicating a potential market top.
6. Directional Shift: Dot directions begin turning downward.
7. Challenges: Be alert to price challenging PL Dot crests and valleys.
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❌ No Pattern (Non-Termination Pattern)
Indicates that the trend is likely to continue without exhaustion:
1. Similar early behavior to the Yes Pattern but lacks signs of exhaustion.
2. No Significant Pullback: PL Dot may pull within range, but no congestion entrance signs appear (bullish).
3. Price Holds: Prices do not return to the 2-3 dots back area.
4. Weak Crests: No strong crest formation, or it's shallow.
5. Stable Direction: Dot direction struggles to turn down.
6. No Challenges: No challenges to PL Dot crests or valleys, confirming trend strength.
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3. Trend Pattern (Trend Continuation Pattern)
Describes the start or continuation of a trend, especially in the LTP:
1. Dot Opening: PL Dot opens up, with increasing distance between dots, signaling strong momentum.
2. No Exhaustion: Continuation without signs of exhaustion.
3. Energy Refresh: If price reaches the area of 2-3 dots back, expect high energy on any PL Dot refresh.
4. Dots Out of Range: PL Dots move outside the prior bar’s range, confirming a strong trend.
5. Strong Challenges: Challenges to crests only add momentum to the trend.
6. Stable Direction: Dot direction maintains strength with minimal reversals.
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4. PL Dot Shapes in Congestion
When the market is in congestion, expect the following:
1. Sideways Dots: PL Dots snake sideways, indicating market indecision.
2. Support/Resistance Holding: The 6-1 lines hold both sides of the congestion area.
3. Congestion Exit Signs: Look for signs indicating the market is ready to break out of congestion.
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Key Takeaways:
- Trend Continuation: Increasing dot distance and out-of-range dots suggest a strong trend.
- Trend Exhaustion (Yes Pattern): Decreasing dot distance, dot pullbacks, and crest formation signal potential reversals.
- No Pattern: Indicates no exhaustion, suggesting the trend will continue.
- Congestion Behavior: PL Dots snake sideways with key support/resistance levels holding firm.
Understanding these patterns helps traders anticipate market behavior, identify trend reversals early, and manage trades effectively.
DXY trade ideas
Market Moves as Expected—Caution for a Potential ReversalDXY Update : The movement remains in line with my expectations, with the ongoing correction being held by the Fibonacci cluster. At this stage, DXY still has the potential to strengthen, testing the 102.791–103.150 area to form wave iv of wave (v).
However, caution is advised for a potential reversal toward the 100.462–100.946.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Time To RecoverThe Dollar Index appears poised for a retreat after testing a key support area on a 4-hour chart.
A robust bullish engulfing candle indicates strong buying activity in that region.
As a confirmation, I see a cup and handle pattern on that and a breakout of its neckline.
I anticipate a bullish upswing to at least 102.79.
DXY:Today's trading strategyTrump's announced comprehensive tariff plan has triggered global attention. As for the U.S. Dollar Index, on Thursday, the price of the U.S. Dollar Index generally showed a significant downward trend. On that day, the price rose to a high of 103.931 at most, dropped to a low of 101.232, and closed at 101.937.
Looking back at the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index price on Thursday, after the opening in the morning, the price continued to decline in the short term. Subsequently, the price remained weak all the way with almost no rebound. It underwent short-term oscillatory consolidation and finally closed with a large bearish candlestick on the daily chart. For now, pay attention to the resistance in the 102.80 area and the level of 102.40, and keep a continuous watch for further bearish pressure.
Trading Strategy:
Sell@102.50-102.60
TP:101.50-101.30
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DXY reversal, Bullish for BTC, but 50 day chop is likelyGood Sunday, dear friend! I'm scribbling down some ideas I had. It's good to be back home after a week on a job project. TradingView on a phone is awesome, but I definitely prefer a bigger screen.
The chart was not as clean as I wished, but it just tells some history with the correlations between DXY and BTC. For instance:
Q4 2022 - DXY tops (BTC bottoms).
Trend reversal for DXY (BTC corrects ABC after W1 after bear market).
DXY declines to a WCL, BTC soars from 25k to 73k.
In the meantime, as BTC soared, DXY also inclined, which led to an extended correction of 7.5 months. DXY rolled over in June 2025, and there was a 60-day lag before BTC felt the boost from the DXY decline.
This leads us to today. DXY and BTC have gone up together. I believe the last leg up is a consequence of the June - September decline of DXY, and BTC went up with DXY, and BTC is now left to feel the consequences of the DXY upturn. Given DXY (most likely) topped 11 days ago, we might chop for 50 more days before BTC resumes upward.
In the last WCLs, DXY retraces a minimum to 0.786. In this case, the trendline suggests a March timeframe for a low in DXY. History suggests the BTC local top is in when DXY bottoms, or is soon to top in about 2 months.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Long-Awaited Recover
It looks like Dollar Index is going to pullback
after a test of a significant support cluster on a daily.
A strong bullish imbalance candle that was formed on an hourly
time frame shows a strong buying interest from that zone.
I expect a bullish movement at least to 102.35
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Dollar Index at Risk: Key Support Holds the Fate of the TrendThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has broken down from a Head & Shoulders pattern, confirming a bearish reversal after a successful retest of the neckline. The price is currently near a key support area, and if it fails to hold, a drop toward the lower strong support zone is likely.
Additionally, RSI is showing bearish divergence and is below the neutral 50 level, indicating weakening momentum.
DYOR, NFA
DXY to 80? ...Tariffs the First Domino in a Multi-Year Collapse?This is a pure technical walkthrough of the U.S. Dollar Index—no fluff, no indicators, no fundamentals. Just market structure, smart money, and liquidity concepts.
Back on January 14th , I posted about a potential 20%+ drop in the DXY — you can view it here . This video builds on that thesis and walks you through the full technical story from 1986 to today , including accumulation cycles, yearly trap zones, and my long-term target of 80. Am I crazy? Maybe. Let's see if I can convince you to be crazy too 😜
There is a video breakdown above, and a written breakdown below.
Here are timestamps if you want to jump around the video:
00:00 – The Case for $80: Not as Crazy as It Sounds
02:30 – The 0.786 Curse: Why the Dollar Keeps Faking Out
06:15 – How Smart Money Really Moves: The 4-Phase Playbook
12:30 – The Trap Is Set: Yearly Highs as Liquidity Bait
20:00 – Inside the Mind of the Market: 2010–2025 Unpacked
25:00 – The Bear Channel No One’s Talking About
36:00 – The First Domino: Is the Dollar’s Slide Just Beginning?
👇 If you're a visual learner, scroll down—each chart tells part of the story.
Chart: Monthly View – Three Highs, .786 Retraces, and Trendline Breaks
History doesn’t repeat, but it sure rhymes.
Each major DXY rally has formed a sequence of three swing highs right after a break of trendline structure. In both instances, price retraced to the .786 level on the yearly closes—an often overlooked fib level that institutional players respect.
We’re now sitting at a high again. You’ll notice price has already reversed from that zone. That doesn’t guarantee a collapse, but when we line it up with other confluences (next charts), the probability of a deeper markdown becomes hard to ignore.
I'd also like to note that all of the highlighted moves, are 2-3 year trend runs. Which means if we are bearish, this could be the exact start of a 2-3 bear market.
Market Phases Since 1986
This chart illustrates how DXY has moved through repeating cycles of:
🟡 Accumulation: Smart money building positions quietly.
🔵 Markup: Price accelerates with buy orders + media hype.
🟣 Distribution: Smart money sells to latecomers.
🔴 Markdown: Public panic → smart money reloads.
If we are indeed entering another markdown phase, this would align perfectly with the pattern seen over the past 40 years.
You’ll also notice the "Point of Control" (POC) zones—volume-based magnets that price often returns to. These spots often act as the origin of the move, and as such, they make for strong targets and areas of interest.
Liquidity Zones and Stop Loss Traps
This is where it gets juicy.
The majority of breakout traders placed long entries at the blue lines—above swing highs, thinking resistance was broken. But what’s under those highs? Stop loss clusters.
Institutions use these areas as liquidity harvests.
Several key levels are marked as “OPEN” in this chart, meaning price has yet to return to sweep those orders. That’s why I’m expecting price to begin seeking out that liquidity over the coming months.
There's also an imbalance gap (thin price action) around the 85–86 zone. If price falls into that trap door, there’s nothing to stop it until the 80s.
The 2025 Outlook
Here’s how I’m approaching this year:
✅ Bearish bias under 105
🎯 Targets at 100, 95, and 90
🚪 Trap door under 86 if volume is thin
Price is currently stuck under the recent point of control and showing signs of distribution. If that level continues to hold as resistance, we could see a multi-leg push downward, with the 100 and 95 zones acting as check-in points.
If we break under the 90s and enter the imbalance zone, 80 becomes more than just possible—it becomes probable.
🗣️ Let’s Sharpen Together
Do you see this unfolding the same way?
Do you disagree with the 80 target?
Drop a comment with your view or share your own markup—this is why we trade!
Stay safe,
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer
This post is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal analysis and opinions. It is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research, manage your risk appropriately, and never trade money you can’t afford to lose.
My Analysis of the DXY ChartLooking at this chart, the DXY is moving within an ascending channel defined by the two white trendlines. Based on my analysis, there are a few key levels to watch, especially the Fibonacci retracement levels.
First, if the price starts to drop from the upper boundary of the channel, it is likely to retrace down to the 0.61 Fibonacci level. This is an important support zone, and the price might bounce back up from here.
However, if the 0.61 Fibonacci level doesn’t hold, the price could continue falling towards the 0.78 retracement level. This level is a much stronger support and could trigger a significant reversal if the price reaches it.
Finally, the lower boundary of the channel, marked by the white trendline, serves as the ultimate area of support. If the price falls this far, there’s a strong chance it will bounce back upward within the channel.
This analysis highlights the key zones where the price is likely to react and helps identify the next potential moves for the DXY
DXY Chart SummaryEh bro, this chart showing two roads for Dollar Index lah.
If price can break above that 100 level ah, then maybe will fly up to 92-94 area (last resistance zone).
But if kena reject at 100, then jialat, price can drop back down to 110 area again.
So now hor, this green box is the decision point — break or reject.
Wait for clear move first, don’t simply jump in."
DXY just broke below the 1W MA200 after 6 months!The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) broke today below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 6 months (since the week of September 30 2024). By doing so, it has almost hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up.
The last contact with the 1W MA200 initiated a massive Bullish Leg two weeks after, so it would be an encouraging development if the candle holds here or better yet even close above the 1W MA200.
If it does, we expect a new strong Bullish Leg to start, targeting initially at least the 0.786 horizontal (blue) Fibonacci level at 108.000.
If not, the 2-year Support Zone is the last defense, with 99.600 as its lowest level (the July 10 2023 Low). Below that, a multi-year downtrend for DXY awaits.
Notice however, the incredible 1W RSI symmetry between selling sequences. Since January 2023, we've had two -54.50% declines. Right now, the current decline since January 2025 is exactly at -54.50%. If DXY rebounds here, it will confirm this amazing symmetry.
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DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 104.207.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 102.727 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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