US DOLLAR SPECULATIVE OPINION.Greetings, At last price action seems to be drawn to the upside.
Multiple breaks of structure on the 30M and a liquidity sweep.
I further investigate..
DXY trade ideas
DXY (USDX): Trend in weekly time framehe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
BEST,
MT
DXY BANK VAULT BREAK-IN: Your Dollar Index Profit Blueprint🚨 DXY BANK HEIST: Dollar Index Breakout Robbery Plan (Long Setup) 🚨
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Attention, Market Robbers & Dollar Bandits! 🏦💰💸
Using the 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥, we’re plotting a DXY (Dollar Index) bank heist—time to go LONG and escape near the ATR danger zone. Overbought? Yes. Risky? Absolutely. But the real robbery happens when weak hands panic. Take profits fast—you’ve earned this loot! 🏆💵
📈 ENTRY: BREAKOUT OR GET LEFT BEHIND!
Wait for DXY to cross 99.300 → Then strike hard!
Buy Stop Orders: Place above Moving Average.
Buy Limit Orders: Sneak in on 15M/30M pullbacks (swing lows/highs).
Pro Tip: Set a BREAKOUT ALARM—don’t miss the heist!
🛑 STOP LOSS: DON’T GET LOCKED UP!
For Buy Stop Orders: Never set SL before breakout—amateurs get caught!
Thief’s Safe Spot: Nearest swing low (2H chart).
Rebels: Place SL wherever… but your funeral! ⚰️
🏴☠️ TARGET: 102.300 (Bank Vault Cracked!)
Scalpers: Long only! Trail your SL like a pro thief.
Swing Traders: Ride this heist for maximum payout.
💵 MARKET CONTEXT: DXY IS BULLISH (But Traps Await!)
Fundamentals: COT Reports, Fed Plays, Geopolitics.
Intermarket Sentiment: Bonds, Gold, Stocks—all connected.
Full Analysis: Check our bio0 linkks 👉🔗 (Don’t trade blind!).
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Avoid new trades during high-impact news.
Lock profits with trailing stops—greed gets you caught!
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Smash that Boost Button 💖→ Stronger team = bigger scores!
Steal profits daily with the Thief Trading Style. 🎯🚀
Next heist coming soon… stay ready! 🤑🐱👤🔥
Falling towards pullback support?US Dollar index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.89
1st Support: 97.98
1st Resistance: 100.09
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DOLLAR INDEXDXY Outlook: Bearish bias near-term unless strong NFP (June 6) or hawkish Fed rhetoric reverses momentum.
But at the moment price is setting on demand and break and close of that demand floor will expose 96-97$ zone ascending trendline on monthly chart
Will the Dollar’s Drop Fuel More Gold Upside After Weak PCE DXY OUTLOOK – Will the Dollar’s Drop Fuel More Gold Upside After Weak PCE and Trade Tensions?
📉 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE – DXY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has failed to hold the 99.20–99.30 support zone and continues to respect its bearish structure on the H2 chart. The sharp sell-off at the end of May was a direct response to weaker-than-expected PCE inflation data, combined with growing political uncertainty surrounding US–China and US–EU trade negotiations.
🔻 Key Resistance Levels: 99.234 – 99.618
🔻 Key Support Zone: 98.030 – A clean break below this may open the door toward 97.50
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT – USD UNDER PRESSURE ON MULTIPLE FRONTS
Trump’s tariff decisions remain unclear. While some deadlines were delayed (e.g., steel tariffs on the EU), no substantial agreements have been reached.
Core PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred gauge – continues to ease, reducing expectations of further rate hikes in the short term.
Institutional flows are shifting toward safe havens like gold, especially as uncertainty clouds the outlook for both US fiscal and trade policy.
📊 IMPACT ON XAUUSD – DOLLAR DROP GIVES GOLD ROOM TO RALLY
Gold remains supported by:
A weakening DXY trend
A bullish structure on H1 with EMA 13–34–89–200 alignment in favor of upside
Strong safe-haven demand heading into a new month with fresh capital inflows
If DXY breaks below 98.70 and slides toward 98.030, gold could extend its rally toward key resistance zones at 3348 – 3361.
🎯 TRADING STRATEGY (Based on DXY Bearish Continuation):
Prioritize buy setups on XAUUSD if DXY fails to reclaim the 99.23 resistance
Watch for a potential DXY pullback to resistance – if rejected, this would confirm momentum for gold to climb further
📌 NOTE: Traders should stay alert to any major news from the Fed or new developments in US–China–EU trade talks. While the current DXY structure favors continued downside, short-term pullbacks can provide gold with consolidation before another leg higher.
DOLLAR INDEXRelationship Between the Dollar Index (DXY), 10-Year Bond Yield, Interest Rates, and Carry Trade
1. Dollar Index (DXY) and 10-Year Bond Yield
The DXY and the US 10-year Treasury yield generally have a direct (positive) relationship:
When the 10-year yield rises, the dollar tends to strengthen.
When yields fall, the dollar usually weakens.
This is because higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, increasing demand for the US dollar and pushing up its value.
However, this relationship is not perfect and can be influenced by other factors like economic data, geopolitical risks, and monetary policy expectations.
2. Interest Rates and Their Impact
Interest rates set by central banks (e.g., Fed funds rate) influence bond yields and currency values.
Higher interest rates generally lead to higher bond yields, attracting capital inflows and strengthening the currency (USD).
Conversely, lower rates tend to weaken the currency as investors seek higher yields elsewhere.
The interest rate differential between countries is crucial: it reflects the relative attractiveness of holding one currency over another, driving capital flows and currency movements.
3. Carry Trade and Its Role
The carry trade involves borrowing in a currency with low interest rates and investing in a currency with higher yields to earn the interest rate differential.
For example, investors may borrow in Japanese yen (low rates) and invest in US dollars (higher rates), buying US bonds or assets.
This strategy increases demand for the higher-yielding currency (USD), pushing up its value and often correlating with rising bond yields in that country.
Carry trades are typically based on short-term interest rate differentials, but recent research indicates that the entire yield curve (including long-term yields) also affects currency returns and carry trade profitability.
The uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) theory suggests carry trade returns should be zero after adjusting for exchange rate changes, but empirically, carry trades have yielded excess returns, partly due to risk premia and market inefficiencies.
what is UIP???
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) is a fundamental economic theory that relates the difference in nominal interest rates between two countries to the expected change in their currency exchange rates over the same period. It asserts that the expected depreciation or appreciation of a currency will offset the interest rate differential, eliminating the possibility of arbitrage profits from borrowing in one currency and investing in another without hedging exchange rate risk.
Key Points about UIP:
Interest Rate Differential Equals Expected Exchange Rate Change:
The difference between the interest rates of two countries should equal the expected percentage change in the exchange rate between their currencies. For example, if Country A has a higher interest rate than Country B, its currency is expected to depreciate relative to Country B’s currency by approximately the interest rate difference.
No Arbitrage Condition Without Hedging:
Unlike covered interest rate parity (which uses forward contracts to hedge exchange rate risk), UIP assumes investors do not hedge their currency exposure. Therefore, the expected spot exchange rate at the end of the investment horizon adjusts to offset potential gains from interest rate differences.
Implication:
If a country offers higher interest rates, its currency is expected to depreciate to prevent riskless profit opportunities. This reflects foreign exchange market equilibrium.
Relation to Law of One Price and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP):
UIP is connected to the law of one price, which states that identical goods should cost the same globally when prices are expressed in a common currency. Similarly, UIP ensures that returns on investments in different currencies are equalized once exchange rate changes are considered.
Practical Use:
UIP helps explain and forecast currency movements based on interest rate differentials but is often violated in the short term due to market imperfections, risk premiums, and investor behavior.
In summary, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity states that the expected change in exchange rates between two currencies offsets the interest rate differential, so investors earn the same return regardless of the currency in which they invest, assuming no hedging of currency risk.
4. Bond Prices and Interest Rates
Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship:
When interest rates rise, bond prices fall.
When interest rates fall, bond prices rise.
This dynamic affects currency values indirectly, as falling bond prices (rising yields) attract capital inflows, strengthening the currency and the DXY.
Summary Table
Factor Relationship with USD / DXY Explanation
10-Year Bond Yield Positive correlation Higher yields attract foreign capital, boosting USD
Interest Rates Positive correlation Higher rates increase returns on USD assets
Interest Rate Differential Drives carry trade and currency flows Larger spread favors higher-yielding currency
Carry Trade Supports USD when borrowing low-rate currency and investing in USD Increases demand for USD and US bonds
Bond Prices Inverse to yields; indirectly affects USD Falling bond prices (rising yields) strengthen USD
Conclusion
The US Dollar Index (DXY) generally moves in tandem with the 10-year Treasury yield and interest rates because higher yields and rates attract capital inflows, strengthening the dollar. The carry trade exploits interest rate differentials, further supporting the dollar when investors borrow in low-rate currencies to invest in higher-yielding US assets. Bond prices inversely relate to yields, and their fluctuations indirectly influence the dollar through these mechanisms.
#DOLLAR #GOLD #
USD Index (DXY) –
🔧 Technical:
Trading in a clear downtrend channel
Key resistance: 100.08
Target: 91.83, then 87.64
Bearish bias remains unless price breaks above 102.33
🌍 Fundamentals:
Fed rate cut expectations weighing on the dollar
Weak U.S. data and slowing inflation support downside
Global shift away from USD adds pressure
📉 Headline:
“DXY Weakens Below 100 – Bearish Pressure Builds Toward 91.83”
DXY Update..PWL takenGood day traders I’m back yet again with another update but this this it’s DXY(dollarindex)).
Price has taken previous week’s low, and for me that’s the manipulation phase in the power of 3 because my bias is bullish on the dollar and bearish on foreign currencies. Price has taken the PWL in a zone/area where we saw price react higher in that BPR zone/area. For the rest of the week I personally believe we can expect higher prices on DXY, Atleast till the midpoint of that gap above price. ICT teaches more on the importance of that halfway/midpoint of gaps and other PD arrays.
Since we are in a discount zone we can expect price to move higher into the premium range of the daily TF dealing range and our first liquidity (internal) is also inside the premium zone.
USDX-NEURAL SELL strategy 6 hourly chart GANNThe index is under pressure, and it has moved as expectation since I started my travels. However, am cautious selling right now, as there is some room to see minor recovery before lower. Also we are near a previous bottom.
Strategy SELL @ 99.00 - 99.25 and take profit near 96.50 for now.
DOLLAR INDEX The higher-than-expected US Unemployment Claims (247K actual vs. 236K forecast) suggest emerging softness in the labor market, increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Here’s how this data impacts the Fed’s policy outlook:
Key Implications for the Fed
Labor Market Cooling:
The uptick in claims aligns with recent trends of slowing payroll growth (Q1 2025 average: 152K jobs/month vs. Q4 2024: 209K) and a stagnant unemployment rate near 4.2%.
Fed projections already anticipate unemployment stabilizing around 4.3% in 2025, but persistent claims increases could signal risks to their "maximum employment" mandate.
Rate Cut Probability:
The Fed has maintained rates at 4.25–4.50% since May 2025 but emphasized data dependence. Weak labor data strengthens the case for cuts, with markets now pricing in a ~60% chance of a September rate cut (up from ~50% pre-data).
The Fed’s March 2025 projections flagged rising unemployment as a risk, with some participants favoring earlier easing if labor conditions deteriorate.
Inflation Trade-Off:
While unemployment claims rose, wage growth remains elevated (ADP reported 4.5% YoY pay gains in May). The Fed will weigh labor softness against sticky inflation, particularly in services (ISM Prices Paid index at 68.7).
A cooling labor market could ease wage pressures, aiding the Fed’s inflation fight and enabling cuts without reigniting price spikes.
Market Impact
DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to weaken further as rate cut expectations rise. Immediate support at 98.40, with a break targeting 97.00
Equities/Gold: Potential gains as lower rates boost risk assets and non-yielding gold.
Bond Yields: 10-year Treasury yields may retreat below 4.40% if markets price in dovish Fed action.
What’s Next?
June 6 NFP Report: A weak jobs number (<150K) would solidify rate cut bets.
June 11 CPI Data: Lower inflation could give the Fed confidence to cut sooner.
Fed Decision (July 31): Odds of a cut rise if labor data continues to soften.
Conclusion
The Fed is likely to prioritize labor market stability over inflation concerns if unemployment claims persist above 240K. While a July cut remains possible, September is the most probable start date for easing, contingent on confirming data.
#DOLLAR #GOLD #DXY
US Dollar Analysis - by MMFX This is not a prediction, it never is.
My bullish anticipation on the instrument is rooted from many catalyst of course, though the proof of the pudding is communicated on the charts itself.
I zero in on the Weekly to Day bias on price action looking for: Market Structure, Inducement, CISD, Candle Stick Patterns, Voids/Gaps, SMT, Liquidity Sweeps, Bullish ChoCH, BOS, etc.
On the 4H - 30M scope i look to refine and define the narrative.
Monitoring fundamentals & lending rates on the global and domestic scale I pair this with
barometers related to the index such as Treasury's, GOLD and other securities to identify if my Bullish suspicions are true..
Thank you.
DXY Weekly ForecastDXY Weekly Forecast
- keep looking for down move
- in any case DXY has to come down to 96.000 level
"I Found the Code. I Trust the Algo. Believe Me, That’s It."
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.36
1st Support: 97.98
1st Resistance: 99.23
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY: Strong Growth Ahead! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 98.380 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 98.653 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DXY 4hr chart Analaysis It is possible that the DXY may retrace back to the 101.208 level, which previously marked the beginning of a bearish move. Alternatively, it could also resume a bearish trend from its current level or around the 99.80 zone. The market at this point requires heightened caution.
A potential bearish entry could be considered if DXY breaks below the 98.66 – 98.30 support area. A clear break of this level would confirm a fully established bearish trend, with a likely continuation towards the 94.00 – 93.00 range. From there, a bullish momentum may be anticipated.
USDX 1-Hour Timeframe – NFP 6 Jun 2025
Technical Analysis Report on USDX in Relation to the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Data – 6 June 2025
Tags: PEPPERSTONE:USDX
Highly likely the DXY goes down.Trading the DXY increase in 2022 was my best trade of that year. Specifically on the USD/CAD pair not the whole index. Options worked great for this.
I had call options on USX not the company. It's Options on the US Dollar (USX) on the TMX exchange in Montreal Canada. To gain exposure to a rising dollar, or to hedge existing positions, call options on USX can be an effective tool. If DXY is going down like 2020-2021 it's great for stocks and equities. A falling dollar is also beneficial from the perspective of US national debt, as it makes interest payments cheaper in relative terms. Also many people outside the US have USD debts so example they make CAD but their debts are in USD. Well now their company is worth more as debt went down and revenue up. Otherwise known as currency risk. Very important for companies dealing in multiple currencies regardless of the type of business they do.
The US has incentive for a weaker dollar as the interest payments on their debt are now around $1 Trillion a year.
This yellow line represents a significant long-term resistance level. As long as the price fails to break and hold above this zone, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
The MACD is currently moving down, supporting a bearish bias. However, there are two key bullish signals I am watching that would challenge this view:
The Bullish Crossover: This occurs if the blue MACD line crosses above the orange signal line.
On the daily timeframe, a simple crossover can sometimes be a temporary fake-out (like
the "flip-flopping" seen around April 3rd-9th). While it's a warning, it's not always a
definitive trend changer on its own.
The Bullish Divergence: This is the more powerful signal. If the price has set a new low since
April 2025 but the MACD has formed a higher low, it creates a bullish divergence. A
confirmation of this pattern could signal the end of the long-term downtrend and mark a
serious change in market conditions.
A bullish crossover happening at the same time as a confirmed bullish divergence would be a very strong combination, making a short position on the DXY extremely risky.
**Disclaimer:**
*The information provided in this post is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, market, or trading strategy does not guarantee future results. I am not a financial advisor. Please conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. You are solely responsible for any investment decisions you make.*
Weekly trade ldea on DXYAm still short term bullish on the dollar, this morning trade war is causing the dollar to fall a little bit
We might see a little rise and then a deep fall in the dollar
which will help our decision aking on its pairs
Like follow for more updates
check the trendIt is expected that a trend change will form within the current support range and we will witness the beginning of an upward trend. Otherwise, the correction trend will continue until the next support ranges.
Could that be it for DXY ?DXY could drop at the best scenario to 98 - 100 or a deeper correction giving the market some oxygen
DXY: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 98.335 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 98.090..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
