31.10.24 Morning ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:EURUSD
FX:NZDUSD
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
DXY trade ideas
USDX-SELL strategy 3-DAILY CHARTThe index seems overdone and showing potential for a decline towards 101.00 area in the short- to medium-term. Elections are the key of courser.
Strategy SELL @ 104.10 - 104.50 and take profit @ 101.67 for now. SL based on your own risk appetite.
Potential bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 103.82
1st Support: 103.44
1st Resistance: 104.57
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DXY TRI MONTHLY CHART -- A LONG JOURNEY OF WEAKNESS.The chart should speak for itself.
DXY long term view (tri-monthly data) is conveying shifting trend on the dollar index -- to the downside.
Expect more long term correction, as this time frame don't change mind too often.
Spotted at 102.25
TAYOR.
safeguard capital always.
Bearish DXY Continuation Trade IdeaDXY is showing signs of continued bearish momentum, likely to extend further as selling pressure builds.
Following recent economic data, sentiment remains weak for the dollar, pushing it toward key support levels.
DXY Descending Triangle PatternDXY is forming a descending triangle today signifying further downward momentum is likely. Take note of the lower highs and continued rejection at this same level of support. This shows a lower amount of buyers at each rejection. It is likely due to this, support will break unless new buyers come in to place.
Dollar index on the floor of the trading rangeAccording to the weekly chart of the dollar index and since tomorrow and next week we have important data such as unemployment claims, and also these data will probably strengthen the strength of the dollar, it is expected that the dollar index will rise to the middle of the trading range in the first step. .
DXY idea bearishUS Dollar (USD) rose, alongside the rise in UST yields. Dollar Index (DXY) was last at 104.26 levels. US data, including durable goods orders, Uni of Michigan sentiment surprised to the upside, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Daily momentum remains bullish
“RSI eased lower from overbought conditions. While the recent run up continues to look stretched technically, the move higher may still extend in the interim. That said, we do also caution that the subsequent snapback may also be sharp, on any triggers or data surprises. Resistance at 104.60 (61.8% fibo), 105.20 levels. Support at 103.80 levels (200 DMA, 50% fibo), 102.90/103.20 levels (21, 100 DMAs, 38.2% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low) and 101.90 (50 DMA).”
DXY: Market Is Looking Up! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 104.321
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Levels discussed on Livestream 30th October30th October
DXY: Look to break 104.20 and 61.8%, to trade down to 104 and 103.80
NZDUSD: Buy 0.5990 SL 20 TP 60 (Counter Trend)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6580 SL 20 TP 50 (Bearish Channel)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2960 SL 25 TP 50 (Break trendline0
EURUSD: Buy 1.0845 SL 20 TP 55 (Hesitation at 1.0870)
USDJPY: Ranging between 152.70 and 153.86 (looking for breakout potential)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8690 SL 15 TP 35
USDCAD: Sell 1.3875 SL 30 TP 60
Gold: Could retrace to 2770, look for rejection and buying opportunities
INDEX_DXY_4H🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
hello
Analysis of short and medium term dollar index
The analysis style is based on Elliott waves.
The indicator is in an ascending wave, which is currently the big 3rd wave, which is again a downward correction wave as wave 4 and again the continuation of the ascending wave towards wave 5.
3 wave resistance 105.000
Support wave 4 number 103.300
5 wave resistance 106.600
DXY Is Going Down! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 104.138.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 103.076 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
DXY Bearish Trade IdeaExpecting DXY to open with a gap down, looking for an initial fill back up before a potential continuation lower. This setup aims to capture the downside momentum post-fill, as bearish sentiment remains in play. Stops are placed above recent highs to manage risk, with targets aligned to key support levels.
Will the job data impair the US dollar gain?Macro theme:
- The dollar remained steady despite short-term volatility, reflecting mixed economic data. US Sep Retail Inventories and Oct Consumer Confidence exceeded forecasts, while Sep Job Openings fell short.
- Treasury yields reached multi-month highs early but declined following a strong seven-year auction.
- With the US job report—the last before the FOMC meeting—approaching, storms and strikes could complicate interpreting the data, introducing further uncertainty around the dollar’s direction.
Technical theme:
- DXY is consolidating in a small range at the top and looks stretched. This is vulnerable to a potential mean reversion. The price is trading away from both EMAs.
- If DXY extends its gain above the previous swing high at 104.60, the index may rise to 106.00 resistance.
- On the contrary, if DXY closes below 104.00 support, the index may decline to retest 103.45 support.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Bear control...After three attempt to goes to touch the upper line of big channel, DXY made three bearish daily candlestick and now can correct to 103.
On my view, all pairs can strong against Us Dollar. JPY is one of the best choice to choose.
Trade safe.
Good luck.
Bullish DXY Trade IdeaDXY is showing signs of bullish momentum on the 1-hour chart, looking to make a move toward the recent swing high. Positive U.S. economic data and ongoing dollar strength could continue driving price up. Stops are set below recent support to manage risk, with an eye on resistance at the 1-hour swing high as a target.
US DOLLAR short it right now once again!Hi Everyone!
TVC:DXY Has been ranging now a bit longer than usual, I think we are at an important peak.
And ofcourse its been centuries without a pullback...
DXY Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a buying opportunity around 104.250 zone, DXY is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 104.250 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
DXY Clear LiquidityI'll still be going long on USD/XXX pairs as I see we still have room for some more upside on the dollar. Need to be paying close attention this week as we have NFP and election date is approaching. Patience!!!
How does the dollar's strength endure amidst domestic turmoil?
A Resilient Currency
Despite a tumultuous political climate and growing social divisions, the U.S. dollar has shown remarkable strength, particularly in recent months. As measured by Bloomberg's Dollar Spot Index, the greenback has surged approximately 3.1% in October alone. This resilience is surprising, given the erosion of trust in American institutions and the increasing polarization of the country.
Why is the Dollar So Strong?
Several factors contribute to the dollar's enduring strength:
1. Safe-Haven Status: The U.S. dollar has long been considered a safe-haven asset. In times of economic uncertainty or geopolitical turmoil, investors often flock to the dollar as a reliable store of value. The current global landscape, marked by geopolitical tensions and economic volatility, has solidified the dollar's status as a safe haven.
2. Interest Rate Differentials: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy plays a crucial role in influencing the dollar's value. By raising interest rates, the Fed makes it more attractive for investors to hold dollar-denominated assets. As a result, the demand for the dollar increases, leading to appreciation.
3. Global Economic Disparity: The U.S. economy, while facing its own challenges, remains relatively strong compared to many other major economies. This economic disparity can lead to capital inflows into the U.S., further boosting the dollar's value.
4. Global Currency Reserve: The U.S. dollar is widely used as a global reserve currency. Central banks around the world hold significant amounts of U.S. dollars, which helps to maintain demand for the currency.
The Disconnect Between Currency and Country
The dollar's strength can be seen as a paradox, given the growing political polarization and social unrest in the U.S. However, it is important to distinguish between the country's political and social climate and its economic fundamentals. While the former may impact investor sentiment in the long run, the latter has a more immediate impact on the currency.
As long as the U.S. economy remains relatively stable and the Federal Reserve continues to pursue sound monetary policies, the dollar is likely to maintain its strength. However, it is essential to monitor geopolitical risks, global economic conditions, and domestic political developments that could potentially impact the dollar's value.
A Word of Caution
While the dollar's current strength is impressive, it is important to remember that market conditions can change rapidly. A sudden shift in investor sentiment, a change in Federal Reserve policy, or a significant geopolitical event could lead to a decline in the dollar's value.
It is crucial for investors to stay informed about global economic and political developments and to diversify their portfolios to mitigate risk. By understanding the factors that influence the dollar's value and making informed investment decisions, individuals can navigate the complex and ever-changing global financial landscape.
DXY IndexPair : DXY Index
Description :
Completed " 1234 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Fibonacci Level - 78.60%
Double Bottom as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame
Demand Zone
EUR/USD Selloff CaseGood morning everyone.
Going to try to keep this short and sweet.
DXY, as of about 0830EST, broke through all hourly Camarilla resistance levels. The last being 104.560. The next targets would be at 104.795, 104.833, 104.871, and 104.987.
EUR/USD has broken through first 1HR/4HR support level at 1.0782. Next two levels would be 1.0772, and 1.0762. After these levels are broken. I'll look to trade to 1.07.
Going into this selloff, we were in a bearish symmetrical triangle.
Though I do not rely heavily on indicators, MACD, RSI (both reg. and sto.) are aligning with this downward momentum.
Stop loss around previous around 1.0830 which the hour 200-EMA is peaking under.
The DXY upward pressure is also supported by the election anticipation of Donald J. Trump winning.
Rising 10-year yield is also support the greenback.
BOJ is not looking to hike rates this week.
Listened to a few earnings calls. Everyone is beating earnings so far. VIX is up. Feels like risk-on but keep in mind that the market made a major move up prior to any reports. Folks getting greedy and anxious going into election and big data week.
Let's see if JOLTS today, IJC on Thursaday, and NFP on Friday still show a strong labor market. If so, definitely can forget about a 50 bps cut. 94.8% priced in for a 25 bps cut and 5.2% with no cut.
Of course, like Socrates, I'm objective and humble to accept that it's possible for none of this to happen. If we get a break back about 1.0805, a level got from my brother @ThePipAssassin I'm tracking resistance levels at 1.0825, 1.0851, 1.0877, and 1.0919. If we get anywhere near these, believe I'll be looking for 1.10 because I did identify a FVG to the downtrend in DXY.
Of couse none of this is to be taken as trading or financial advice. I am simple giving you my own analysis. Trade at your own risk and I encourage everyone to do your own research and check my thoughts. Please give feedback. Going to start doing this a lot more. Follow, like, and share por favor. God is love!
