DXYThe DXY has faced severe sell off due to President Trump's policy and idea of how the dollar should be controlled/managed. Though it has fallen, a pullback will happen soon. I will be using the DXY as a good guide for all the USD/XXX or XXX/USD pairs. You as a trader can take what you can from this.
These 4HR FVG'S seem like a very good place where you can do one of two things. First you may be able to manage and hold a trade throughout the whole pullback. Another option is take complete profits instead of partials and enter in at good prices with this pullback in mind for bias.
DXY trade ideas
dxy 1hr chart analaysis The current bullish trend in the DXY is likely to face a strong rejection around the 99.55–99.65 zone. Unless there is major news that significantly shifts the market direction — such as a surprise policy announcement like the tariffs introduced during Trump's era — the dollar index is not expected to break above that level. That zone could act as a major turning point, and a bearish reversal is likely to emerge from there
DXY: US dollar To Drop Further Around 95?The US dollar has been steadily declining since the new president was elected in the USA. This decline has been accompanied by the ongoing trade wars. Numerous economic indicators have supported this trend, and we anticipate further depreciation in the coming days or weeks. Before trading, it’s essential to conduct your own analysis and gain a comprehensive understanding of the market.
We wish you the best of success in trading. Good luck and trade safely.
Like and comment for more, and as always, happy trading!
Team Setupsfx_
US dollar, a potential bullish divergence to watchThe US Federal Reserve (FED) recently updated its economic projections against a backdrop of growing uncertainty. It is now openly concerned about a scenario of stagflation, a combination of weak growth, persistent inflation and rising unemployment. This concern stems in particular from the as yet unquantified impact of the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, as well as rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.
Gloomy forecasts, but monetary policy still flexible
At its last meeting, the FED kept its key rate in the 4.25% - 4.5% range, while publishing gloomy forecasts for the US economy. By the end of 2025, it anticipates PCE inflation at around 3%, unemployment at 4.5% and moderate growth. Despite this worrying picture, the central bank is still planning two rate cuts this year, demonstrating its determination to support economic activity.
Nevertheless, this monetary stance is the subject of debate within the committee: ten members support the cuts, while seven believe that rates should remain unchanged. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the FED, advocates caution, insisting on the need to observe the evolution of economic data before acting, particularly in view of the delayed effects of tariffs.
The FED is faced with a dilemma: it must curb inflation without destroying growth. Its diagnosis of stagflation is harsh, but perhaps too pessimistic if inflation figures remain under control. A rate cut in September is still conceivable, but will largely depend on the evolution of geopolitical tensions and international trade in the weeks ahead.
Below, you can see the table with the latest update of the FED's macroeconomic projections
US dollar (DXY), a potential bullish technical divergence to be monitored
The FED's confirmed intransigence is having an impact on the foreign exchange market. While the US dollar has been the weakest Forex currency since the beginning of the year, it has been stabilizing for several weeks now. If the FED maintains its current wait-and-see stance on a resumption of Fed funds rate cuts, the US dollar could be close to a low point on the Forex market.
At present, there are no resistance breaches to suggest this, but a potential bullish technical divergence has appeared on the weekly timeframe. In the past, this signal was a precursor to a future rebound in the US dollar against a basket of major Forex currencies.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
DXY ||| • Sell Completed Below Orange Line📉 Pair: GBP/USD
⏱ Timeframe: 4H
🔶 Orange Line = Major S/R Zone
📌 Confirmed Break + Retest
🎯 Profit Locked | Risk Managed
Strategy: Elliott Wave + Parallel Channel + SMC (Break of Structure)
🔶 Status:
Completed Wave 5 inside falling wedge
Sell executed after orange support break
Anticipating accumulation phase > BOS > bullish reversal
📍Key Zones:
Demand zone near 97.455
Resistance near 98.426
🎯 Next Steps: Looking for bullish structure post BOS + Wave 2 pullback.
🔁 Watch for:
Accumulation near lower trendline
Structure shift > Breakout of wedge
Long confirmations in late July – early August
🟢 Plan the trade, trade the plan.
DOLLAR INDEXThe DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is a measure of the U.S. dollar’s value relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). It serves as a benchmark for the dollar’s global strength and is influenced by macroeconomic factors like interest rates, trade flows, and inflation expectations.
10 years bond yield Correlations with DXY
1. 10-Year Bond Yield
Positive Correlation: The DXY and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields generally move in the same direction. Higher yields attract foreign capital into U.S. bonds, increasing demand for dollars and strengthening the DXY.
Current 10-Year Yield (June 12, 2025): 4.36%, down slightly from 4.41% the previous day but up 1.16% year-over-year.
2. Bond Price
Inverse Relationship with Yields: Bond prices fall when yields rise (and vice versa). Since DXY and yields are positively correlated, the dollar tends to strengthen when bond prices decline.
3. Interest Rates
Direct Link: Higher U.S. interest rates increase the dollar’s appeal as investors seek higher returns, boosting DXY. Conversely, rate cuts weaken the dollar.
Example: The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in 2023–2024 contributed to DXY strength, while recent rate-cut expectations have moderated its gains.
Current 10-Year Treasury Yield
As of June 12, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.36%, below its long-term average of 5.83%.
Key Drivers of DXY in 2025
Federal Reserve Policy: Markets are pricing in potential rate cuts later in 2025, which could limit DXY upside.
Global Risk Sentiment: Safe-haven dollar demand rises during geopolitical or economic uncertainty.
Inflation Trends: Persistent U.S. inflation could delay Fed easing, supporting DXY
technical level to watch is the support level at 97,949
Potential bullish scenario formulating for DXY. Target: 99.418.Higher timeframe analysis
Thursday, 12 June 2025 saw the DXY take out the monthly low of 97.921. This poses the bearish monthly FVG as an immediate draw on liquidity at 99.418. Warranting a bullish bias till this level.
Intermediate timeframe analysis
This bullish bias is further confirmed by an initial consolidation identified on the 1H chart immediately below the said monthly FVG. This is a signature of the formation of a market maker buy model. Note the displacement to the updside which occurred at 21:00 EST leaving behind a bullish fair value gap on the 1H. This signals the beginning of the buyside of the curve of a market maker buy model.
Scenario
A potential long scenario could play out whereby price could respect the bullish 1H FVG at 97.999 and reprice updwards towards 99.418. I suspect that the target could be reached by Tuesday morning at 2:00 am - 3:30 am EST, though this is merely an estimation at best. This analysis is largely dependent on the reaction of price in the weekly open. Though in the event of a non-volatile market open this analysis holds decent probability.
Alternate Scenario
Should the above analysis fail the relative equal lows at 97.602 could be taken out before upside to 99.418 is seen.
My Thoughts #015My Thoughts
Are that the pair will sell in this manner.
The pair is in a bearish pattern
Currently the pair is making a new LL
Meaning that on the lower time frame the pair is in a bearish pattern.
As you can see that pair just made a new LL a new LH is expected
It could buy and invalidate the set up.
Just use proper risk management
Let's do the most
Dollar Bullish Correction To $103 - $105While we expected to see some Dollar upside in Q2, the economy was in such a bad state that the Dollar could not hold its value. Since the start of 2025 the Dollar is down 12% and this is only the beginning.
I believe we will see more downside in the future. But for the coming quarter there is a chance for the Dollar to get some breathing space & recover in the short term. Overall, the trend of the Dollar remains bearish, so what we want to keep an eye on is small pumps (short term recovery) into price zones which will allow us to short the Dollar back down.
I want to see a dip lower towards $96 - $94 before sellers lose bearish momentum. If this move takes place, then we can slowly see buyers step back into the market & start pushing back to the upside. Once price hits our ‘Supply Zone’ of $103 again, it’ll give us a more clear indication of what the Dollar will do next; whether that’s a longer term uptrend or a continuation to the downside.
Make US(and USD) weak again, and short DXY 99,358Hey traders, this is a fundamentally and technically based idea. I´m expecting a weakening of USD due to actual US goverment policy. Important weekly lenel 100,600 was broken and holding. If you decide to trade this idea, you can enter now at current price 99,358 and hold till profit lines. TP your trade partially. You can consider averaging at 100,600 instead of cutloss after the reaction. Wish you good luck.
DXY | daily outlookYALL LIKE THE NEW FACE LIFT??
Price tapped into a refined demand zone after breaking short-term structure, confirming bullish intent. Entry was executed on the mitigation of a prior imbalance, with confluence from BOS (Break of Structure) and trendline liquidity sweep.
Now aiming for the next H1 supply zone where price is likely to react. Bullish continuation expected as long as price holds above 98.080.
TP set just before the high to secure profits before potential distribution.
PLS BOOST & LIKE FOR MORE...
TIME FOR THE DOLLAR TO STRENGTHEN OR FURTHER WEAKNESS.So what are we lookin at? We have been looking at the weakest price in dollar yet.Yesterday we tested the yearly lows at 97.700 which we are using as current baseline. I will mark up that price range to use as our support. Geopolitical tensions are cooling off as Trump called for ceasefire between the two war torn nations but we still have lots of economic data flowing in. Most attention fall towards Fed chair Powell speech as this will shape up the direction of the dollar going forward as we head to a new month. Correction higher means USDJPY will rise as we are having a steady Yen currency. We saw the dollar fail to hold above 99.300 which is our nearest resistance level marked by a horizontal ray.So focus is on those two price levels so as to enable us find opportunities to trade.
24th JuneTA: Many confluences for a bearish bias. Only confirmation needed for high probability price action is running (closing below 4H SL) on 1H. We have to exercise some caution, because price is still in the area of the monthly sweep. For a trade PA has to give us optimal behaviour.
News: Powell testifies at 10:00am. This could lead to a very quick move below the swept monthly low.