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Bovespa: Bullish glimpses for CommoditiesThe Ibovespa, the São Paulo Stock Exchange's benchmark index and Latin America's main stock market indicator, yesterday registered a 0.13% increase on Monday, closing at 119,006 points. This performance was supported by the increase in the international prices of key raw materials such as oil and iron ore. Growth drivers The Ibovespa's advance was led by strategic sectors of the Brazilian economy: - Petrobras (PBR): The Brazilian state-owned oil company capitalized on the rise in crude oil prices, with a 0.35% increase in its preferred shares. - Vale S.A.: Despite the increase in the price of iron ore, the common shares of the mining company Vale experienced a slight fall of 0.02%. The shares with the highest gains of the day were those of the metallurgical company Paranapanema (+16.4 %) and the construction company Haga (+15.8 %), standing out for their dynamism in their respective sectors. Negative performance Some companies closed the day with significant losses: - ATMA: The customer service company posted a 14.6 % drop. - Infracomm: The telecommunications company lost 11.1%. - Trading volume : During the session, more than 3.5 million transactions were recorded, with a financial volume exceeding 6.69 billion reais (approximately 1 billion euros). The Bovespa's behavior with a bearish continuation, despite a bullish mid-session and the increase in oil prices, can be attributed to several internal and external factors influencing the Brazilian market. Below are some of the main reasons that could be affecting the index: Domestic factors Fiscal and local political concerns: Uncertainty surrounding the Brazilian government's fiscal and economic policies can weigh on investor confidence. For example, a high fiscal deficit or signs of political instability often negatively affect the market. Possible pending reforms that generate doubts in the business sector. Weakness in key sectors: Although commodities drive some stocks, important sectors such as industry, services or domestic consumption may be showing signs of weakness, limiting index growth. Disappointing macroeconomic data: Economic figures such as inflation, high interest rates, or a slower than expected economic recovery may be reasons for pessimism in the market. External Factors Strength of the US dollar: A strong dollar tends to weaken emerging currencies such as the Brazilian real, which has a negative impact on the flow of foreign capital to markets such as the Bovespa. Brazilian real: On the foreign exchange front, the Brazilian real showed a slight appreciation of 0.07% against the US dollar, closing at 6.09 reais to the dollar. Global uncertainty: F ears of a global economic slowdown or geopolitical tensions may lead investors to seek safer assets, moving away from emerging markets. Contrast with crude oil Relationship with crude oil prices: The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil opened the session at US$ 76.92 per barrel and closed at US$ 78.12, which represents a 2.02% increase over the previous close. This positive behavior in crude oil prices boosted companies such as Petrobras, which showed a favorable performance in the market. Oil prices continue to rise due to factors such as: Reduction in global supply: OPEC+ maintains production cuts, boosting prices. Increased international demand: A recovery in key economies has increased energy consumption. However, this increase in the price of crude oil does not directly benefit all components of the Bovespa index, as only specific companies, such as Petrobras, are favored. On the other hand, expensive oil can hurt energy-dependent sectors, such as transportation or manufacturing, offsetting the positive impact on the overall index. Conclusion Although rising oil benefits certain companies, the Bovespa faces pressures from macroeconomic and market factors that limit its ability to maintain a positive trend. This highlights the complexity of emerging markets, where the benefits of specific sectors can be offset by broader weaknesses. Market Outlook: The Ibovespa maintains a positive trend after accumulating an advance of 0.30% last week. The dynamism in commodity prices and the stability of the Brazilian real could continue to drive the stock market in the short term. However, external factors, such as the volatility of the dollar and changes in the global economic outlook, will continue to be determinants of the index's performance. Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BRA50
by ActivTrades
Does this seem like Goodbye to third world countries!The Brazilian fiscal issue is not going well. Therefore, it directly reflects on the IBOV index, especially for companies linked to the domestic economy, which is very dependent on family income and low interest rates (SELIC) to keep their activities up to date. This was already written in the stars. Sometimes we need to be seers. Lol The growing number of RJ (Judicial Reorganization) is a worrying factor at this time, and opens up gaps for it to contaminate the entire (domestic) consumer sector, from durable to non-durable goods. The big problem for now would not be the slowdown in the economy, as it is to be expected that soon after a big "boom" of easy money, things will start to get strange and to maintain this "growth" more money needs to be injected. That's where the danger lies. How can we keep the economy running if we have a lack of money in the Brazilian market? The only way out for the government would be via interest rates (SELIC), reducing it, to "artificially" heat up the economy and also put a definitive damper on supposed growth. Looking at it in a simplistic way, it is not the high interest rates in Brazil that are strangling the economy, but rather the lack of credibility and especially of decent, long-term projects that involve foreign money. Therefore, reducing interest rates (SELIC) for now will not solve anything for Brazil, it will only advance the process of "euthanasia" of the strong, but weakened, Brazilian economy. As is to be expected, "Brazil does not miss the opportunity to miss great opportunities." Another factor that is in evidence is that we see foreigners rescuing their rich money from emerging markets, this is a bad sign, after all, something big could be coming later on a global level, impacting all countries across the globe. We are still working within the corrective bias described in the previous analysis, so the most interesting support point for the moment is the 124K range (psychological support), but rational support is found at 121.8K. Below, I leave an image of the bearish pivot on the monthly chart pointed out by the SETUP used. He mentions that the loss of the 126.6K range sets precedents for sharper corrections, as there are almost 50 days working in this price range. Note. The red lines are support points. The loss of it sets precedents for prices to seek the white line and, consequently, the yellow lines. This is important? We never learn! Do your analysis and good business. Be aware. If you buy, use Stop Loss. See other graphical analyzes below.
BMFBOVESPA:IBOV
by MacD_Bollinger
Is Bovespa at the end of its Honeymoon?The Sao Paulo stock market, or Bovespa, is characterized by its strong presence in defensive sectors such as banking and insurance companies, as well as in commodity producers such as VALE or PETROBRAS, and energy companies such as ELETROBRAS or EQUATORIAL ENERGIA. This is common in a country with a solid export base of raw materials and foodstuffs such as AMBEV, in addition to a robust domestic market. Brazil has established itself as a leader in the southern cone of Latin America in the export of various products, from food and raw materials, to vehicles, textiles, and chemicals. Its domestic consumption has been accompanying this growth by increasing the number of products listed in the index. This high export has been instrumentalized with an export surplus in December of US$ 300 billion in its trade balance, accompanied by the honeymoon of raw materials and food that has facilitated its increase in profits for these companies, which has been strongly reflected in the index up to this date, especially after the great Sino-Brazilian alliance for the export of the agricultural, mining and industrial sector. The Bovespa index started its uptrend in March 2023, with technical bounces in October and December (in the run-up to Christmas). However, it has since experienced a downward correction , settling at around 128.985 points after reaching a high of 134.520 points.The RSI divergence indicates an overbought movement at 76.19%, suggesting the possibility of a bullish extension, although it is likely that it will first look for the limits of the lower part of the bullish channel. In summary, the future of the Bovespa is highly dependent on economic results in exports and commodities .If they are favorable, the index could continue its uptrend towards 139,922 points. However, if the results disappoint, we could see a correction towards 122,427 points, with a current psychological support zone at 112,311 points. The middle zone of the previous support channel is around 118.749 points, while the current level is at 128.766 points. So at this point we have great opportunities for pronounced movement entries throughout this month and next. Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BRA50Long
by ActivTrades
Brazil is a Mustang!?-I begin my humble analysis with a paradoxical sentence: “Brazil does not lose the opportunity to lose great opportunities”. -Brazil looks like that beautiful Ford Mustang parked in the garage, however, with a little thing out of the axis. It has no wheels. -Despite being without the beautiful wheels, it still manages to leave the place, and that means that the powerful engine under the hood (agribusiness, mining and oil) does its job very well, worthy of a beautiful car. - Now I'm thinking to myself. If without wheels this car manages to walk, even if dragging itself, imagine if this same car had at least one scooter wheel (administrative and tax reforms), how prosperous and powerful it would be. But there is an old saying that is used in Brazil that is exactly like that. “God does not give wings to snakes”. -By making an analogy, Brazil is still a small baby compared to the world's economies. As it is an extremely young economy, Brazil has little commercial history with the world, as it recently opened up to global trade, more precisely in 1990, and despite this young economic opening, it is already part of the select group of countries that it has strong influences in some key sectors of the global value chain, too bad the country didn't discover this. (lol) -Can we expect improvements for the future of Brazil? As previously stated, “Brazil does not miss the opportunity to lose great opportunities”. $ Let's Graph $ -The index has found the long average, and it could be the stumbling block to a steeper climb. We had a beautiful bullish pivot formed that is managing to advance, however, it is in a region of strong resistance (previous bottoms). -The non-breaking of the long average, and the prices not advancing up to the FIBO yard of 1,618, we may have retreats to the region of 106.K and finally, at 103.7K, therefore, the “bulls” need to take the strength to missing yard if you want to advance to new heights. -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other reviews.
BMFBOVESPA:IBOV
by MacD_Bollinger
4
A little of history! What is yours? Do you agree with this one?1 - Start 2 - The middle! 3 - The end? 4 - What is the question? As we know, normally, the future repeats the past and in view of the scenarios presented above, in your opinion, which of the LTA's will prices respect with the scenarios that are about to happen with the new directions that are designed for the Brazilian scenario in the coming years? At the current moment, can we observe any similarity with the crises/LTA outlined and experienced previously, and mentioned above? - A, b or c, what do you suggest? -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop!
BMFBOVESPA:IBOV
by MacD_Bollinger
Do the LAfter the Second World War, with the advance of modernism, humanity entered in a phase that I like to call "Say nice things, and should be fine". Even politics stopped being a pragmatic process and started to be more like sports crowds mixed with cheating feelings. We are still advancing into this delusional process of disconnection from reality. People are not voting for the best policies, they are voting because their chosen politician says nice things. I often think about how would it be, if possible, to put one 30-year-old person from 1920 to talk to one 30 from 2022. IMO it would be the closest thing to Order and Chaos. In 1920, the order was in the individuals and the chaos in the environment, that is why they created, improved, and laboured their surroundings to improve their lives. In 2022, the chaos is inside the individuals and order must come from the environment, that is why we see depression, mental confusion and mass hysteria. My brief introduction will base my argument here. In Brazil, the people had two choices: 1 - a man who has no manners, who is not full of class, and who hasn't an erudite way of saying things. But this man is also, honest, pragmatic and economically results-driven. 2 - a man who is known for his rhetoric skills. Even his mate said that he is a "Serpent Enchanter". He cries he shouts, he poses himself as the underdog's leader. But this man is also a proven corrupt politician, able to create all sorts of schemes to buy out all other politicians and steal a lot of money, I mean a lot. P.s: My two descriptions may be affected by bias, but I believe they are not too far from reality. Now, in a pragmatic world, where the results and actions are what matters, where chaos is in the environment, people could not care less about what the leader says, as long as he/she is able to improve their overall life and wealth. In opposition, in a world where chaos is inside the people, results are not the primary value, but soft words, illusions, utopia and good lies are the goal. People could not care less about how much money the leader stole or how much of their freedom is lost, as long as he says the "right" thing, everything is fine. Brazil, recently made a choice, the second option. Personally, I am not surprised at all. Throughout my readings, for a long time, I have learned. I know we live in 2022, and I know that our society is enchanted by nice words and not results. Two days ago, a 2022 person, attacked me in one of my bearish posts about the Brazilian economy. He argued that I was wrong and that everything is fine. Yesterday, the "elected" president said something about the economy and the stocks instantly crashed. For that guy, everything is fine, as long as the "elected" president says nice things. He does not care if the same "elected" president, who is not the president yet and only will be in 2 months' time, has the power of crashing the whole stocks index of the country with a few words, but that is too much a reality for him.
BMFBOVESPA:IBOVShort
by UnknownUnicorn14518531
2