BVSP all the way downTogether with my last chart about the BVSP, this is more of a Swing-Trade leveraged position against this active (BOV11 in IBovespa and BVSP in NYSE), considering the following fundamental key points:
* The main stocks are being hammered, some of them: Petrobras, Vale, Sabesp.
* Brasil fiscal efforts to keep a good spending balance showed some ugly side effects on the economy.
* The Brasil's economy plans to grow by 0.3% this year, which basically means a recession.
Basically, in the near term there's no way you can be bullish in this scenario until all the changes on the fiscal politics stabilize the economy and produce long-term growth. It may not even begin this year.
IBOV trade ideas
The last push below the surfaceI think it'd be a pity to start this year without testing the famous major annual support by BVSP. Although there are some fundamentals involved, always consider this before entering a long-term trend, the government as been changed but we "wont" (we may) see any new relevant changes until march, or april. So until february, it should call for it's bottom at the major. Everyone will be shorting it as well, so be aware.
Brazil Bovespa Index. DailyBrazil Bovespa Index.
Within the Emerging Markets sector, Index has been lagging,
playing catch up, broke out(ratio) vs MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index).
Brakeout from brake_line channel, within uptrend_channel.
Brakeout from 2013 rectangular range Double bottom pattern.
50 cross 200 sma.
Has tagged the 200 sma weekly, from below.
Monthly RSI downtrend_line brakeout.
Indicated, Overbought RSI.
Possible entry on neckline retest(throwback), or holding supports.
Resistance Targets :
59376, 61100, 63454
Supports : 55291, 50 sma,
Projected Target ( lower propability ) : 68978