IBOVESPA's 2 Year Rising WedgeSince the Coronavirus Pandemic, IBOVESPA has been in a rising wedge pattern. There are key spots in the pattern. This ups the chances of IBOVESPA dumping, since the pattern has been there for so long, and it is still in action. We don’t know what will happen. The most probable thing is that it will dump. All we need to do is wait. BMFBOVESPA:IBOV
IBOV trade ideas
IBOVNow sucking up to my country. We have an index doing better than SPY! After we have broken through this lower channel, we come back to the surface. We are practically already activating a bullish pivot, we now need confirmation. Entering the fundamentalist part. Countries from abroad are coming to invest in our Brazil index as our index is doing better than others.
DISCLAIMER: Please note that my studies portray my personal opinion only and should be considered for educational purposes only. They should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell an asset!
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IBOV boxed in by its 55-week maDuring times of heightened volatility in markets, I have observed that markets have a tendency to mean revert to their long-term moving averages (my favourites are the 55 and 200-week moving averages) and I noticed this beautiful set- up on the IBOV weekly chart (Brazilian stock market). Not only did the market test and bounce off the 200 week-moving average twice at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 (200-week ma is currently at 101159), but we have just hit the 55-week ma at 115636.
So, what does this mean? Well, after an almost 15% rally this year, I would prepare for some profit taking at the 55-week ma. Adding to this resistance is the 200-day moving average at approx. 115321 AND the 50% retracement of the move down from June 2021 to December 2021 at 115560, this is a veritable WALL of resistance, and we would allow for a set-back towards the 55-day ma at 107925. It seems to still be in a longer term up move so we would expect to see some stabilisation around here.
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Most world markets gone nowhere since 2008in this chart we look only at EM charts, and notice India and Indonesia are the exceptions as most markets still below 2008 in dollar basis... this is true not only for EM but for the utmost majority of markets in the world.
few other exceptions i found are germany, switzerland, korea, japan, denmark & netherlands...
The Economist - Brazil Edition - Market TOPS and BOTTOMSThe Economist - Brazil takes off
(Nov 14th 2009 edition)
The Economist - The betrayal of Brazil
(Apr 23rd 2016 edition)
The Economist - Brazil’s dismal decade
(Jun 5th 2021 edition)
If this isn't an indication to get long Brazilian equities, I don't know what is.
Never confuse education with intelligence. You can have a Ph.D. and still be an idiot!