KLSE trade ideas
Bearish BiasSince the KLCI crashed in March 2020, all of us in the Malaysian market know that what's driving the stock market are mainly the gloves and the healthcare counters.
Out of 30 KLCI index components, only TOPGLOV and HARTA are the ones driving the upward momentum since March to July.
We have also experienced quite a major selldown in August and September for gloves and healthcare. This is a huge culture shock as we also have many new traders in the market this time around.
However, what upcoming catalysts would drive the remaining 28 KLCI index components? Can the market continue going uptrend if gloves were to remain flat?
The major sectors for the remaining 28 index components are:
- Banking / Financial: HLBANK, MAYBANK, PBBANK, AMBANK, CIMB, HLFG, RHBBANK
- Telecommunication: MAXIS, DIGI, AXIATA
- Construction: IOICORP, HAPSENG, SIME
- Plantation: SIMEPLT, KLK
- Oil & Gas / Petrochemical: DIALOG, PETGAS, PCHEM, PETDAG
- Hospitality: GENM, GENTING, AIRPORT
- Necessities: TENAGA, NESTLE
By categorizing these sectors, it does not look like we have any positive catalysts to be expected.
In particular, one may argue that the end of moratorium means that banks can start collecting their interest therefore they are expected to do better soon. However, it is observed that in market there are many people who are still struggling financially. Therefore non-performing loans (NPLs) are likely to increase and this will soon serve as a negative catalyst, causing a further decline in the KLCI.
It also does not look like any other positive catalysts would be present in other sectors.
Based on the charts, we are entering a consolidation phase with resistance of 1520 and support 1475. If support of 1475 is broken, we are looking at a decline all the way towards the 1370-1400 zone.
In view of the above, I am myself holding the KLCI put warrants with expiry end of March 2021 with strike price of 1550.
Indikasi Asas untuk Newbie!Salam semua, pada malam ini aku nak kongsikan indikasi2 asas yang korang kena tau sebagai newbie dalam saham ni. Otai2 pun secara amnya akan guna indikasi yang sama. Cara baca, guna dan pemahaman sahaja yang berbeza. So pada korang yang rajin2 nak study tu korang carilah cara baca indikasi2 dibawah ini iaitu:
1. Moving Average (Simple & Exponential)
2. Stochastic Oscillator.
3. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
4. Bollinger Bands.
5. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
6. Fibonacci Retracement.
7. Ichimoku Cloud.
8. Standard Deviation.
9. Directional Movement Index (DMI+ADX)
Dekat google / youtube banyak sgt info2 indikasi yang korang boleh cari. Namun aku nasihat disamping mencari info2 untuk indikasi2 ini korang kena faham basic apa itu LONG TRADE dengan SHORT TRADE supaya korang tak konfius dengan penerangan omputeh2 tu. Aku bagitau sket yang LONG TRADE ini secara basic nye kita trade pakai cash sendiri dan kita trade menggunakan konsep "beli murah jual mahal" perbezaan transaksi itu adalah untung kita. Berbeza dengan SHORT TRADE yang mana kita trade pakai duit bank atau broker yang mana konsepnya ialah "jual dulu masa mahal,beli balik masa murah". Katakan kita jual saham syarikat A sebanyak 100 lot pada harga RM1..kita kena tunggu saham tu turun atau lebih murah untuk kite gantikan 100 lot yang sama pada harga yang lebih murah daripada RM1. Kita dapat gantikan 100 lot unit bank/broker yang kita "loan" tu dengan harga RM0.50 (contoh) Perbezaan ini bank/broker bayar kepada kita setelah tolak interest dan kos2 lain. So kena faham ye LONG/SHORT TRADE tu apa sebenarnya. JANGAN KELIRU!
#takkayatakpejanjihensem
KLCI: Weekly analysis & multiple time framesHi traders! Happy weekend!
Let's us look into KLCI chart using multiple time frame analysis by looking at the hourly, daily charts to determine next week price movement.
The hourly chart is showing some signs of weakness. From 25th Sept to 30 Sept, the candles failed to form higher highs and remained stagnant at the green line resistance (orange zone).
Instead pulling back to the pink line (support), and failed two times to closed higher on Friday at white line (orange zone), thus forming lower high.
It would be easy to fall back to pink line support. Let's see for daily charts for more info.
Looking at daily chart, we are still on a downtrend. The white trend line acts as strong resistance.
It could fall to purple line if failed to hold the nearest support at 1494.
Uptrend - KLSEPrice is near to the support area. Seek for Buy Limit at Demand Zone which is around 1487.76 & 1476.42
Head and shouldersTaking a look at the past crash of the Malaysian market we can see that a head and shoulders played out. After it it broke we saw a retest of the neckline before heading down. We can also notice that the height of the head was about the distance of the move as well.
So here we are today where history may be repeating itself. It is too soon to short as its uncertain how high or if the head and shoulders will complete, but if we wait for the retest of the neckline in the past we might be able to catch this short to the downside. based on the height of the head the target is 1400, but in my opinion this crash could be worse due to how bad the crisis is ,but it will be a good spot to take some profit.
Downtrend biased... but a trader is always prepared to face the consequences if he/she were wrong.
As we all know, the KLCI has had its bull run since March 2020 to date mainly driven by TOPGLOV and HARTA. Therefore we can say that the fall of gloves would be equivalent to the doom of KLCI.
I am on downtrend biased on a few possible events that may negatively impact glove (or this market as a whole):
1. The possibility of vaccine coming out
2. The end of moratorium in a few more days
3. The chance of this country going into a snap election
However, I am also aware that gloves may continue to rally for the below reasons:
4. The entry of local institutions (EPF has entered) and/or foreign funds (so far not very positive)
5. The possibility of the COVID-19 virus having mutation and/or the increase of cases locally & worldwide
6. The (over-)optimism of retail players on gloves being a good investment regardless of price points
Currently I am holding put warrant FBMKLCI-HAR, which is expiring end of March 2021.
If on 28 September 2021 (tomorrow) the market closes above 1515, I am reducing my lot size by half and will do some intraday trading on gloves to cover the losses (with hopefully a nett gain).
If on any trading day the market closes above 1530, I take it as an uptrend confirmation and would go bullish on gloves, and would clear my put warrants on the next trading day.
However, I would maintain the put warrants on my watchlist as I am of the opinion that this market will still be bearish due to the disconnect from the real economy and shall one day join the reality. We just have to see when is the good point to get into put warrants (again) when it is cheaper.
KLSE looking for Uptrend Support level keep holding the price from going down. Perhaps we can see a bullish ending for Wave 5 before big drop
KLCI - Menantikan sedikit reboundKemaskini KLCI:
Sepertimana yang kita tahu, ada seribu satu cara bagaimana market akan bergerak. Tiada siapa yang boleh meramalkan dengan tepat bagaimana market akan bergerak pada masa hadapan.
Namun dengan Elliott Wave, kemungkinan ini dapat ditapis dan disandarkan dengan paras paras konfirmasi serta invalidasi.
KLCI ketika ini sudah menyiapkan 3 gelombang ke bawah (label ungu).
Untuk mengatakan kejatuhan sudah tamat setelah kejatuhan ABC ini, kita perlukan 5 gelombang kenaikan yang jelas. Sekiranya gagal dan kenaikan ini hanya terbukti 3 gelombang, kita akan melabel gelombang yang gagal ini sebagai X dan seterusnya menantikan 3 gelombang kejatuhan lagi untuk Y.
Ringkasnya, gelombang X adalah "a failed impulse" dan corak ini dipanggil Double Zigzag Correction .
Kejatuhan KLCI sangat cetek buat masa sekarang membuatkan admin cenderung untuk mengatakan gelombang korektif masih belum tamat.
FBMKLCI Looking for Bearish ProjectionThe market is still in correction mode in TF Weekly. Instability in Politics will drive the situation worse. Wave 5 will make move after Wave B running FTSEMYX:FBMKLCI
FBMKLCI FORECASTIf the price reject the support line @ 1473, might be it bounce back to the next resistance level @ 1540 thus forming Double Bottom to break the Channel Down pattern. There's a few key level to focus on (marked with red rectangle zone). However, the major trend is still bearish and if the price break 1473, consider the buy setup is failed.
History repeat itself for KLCI ?As usual, for head and shoulder pattern. It tells a probability that the price will be dropped down.
Based on the past history, we can see the price had already touch the lowest on the 10/9/2020.
Does the pattern really gives us a hint that KLCI will dropped ? Let us see how.
As usual, always prepare your own trading plan. If u have any thoughts, please leave a comment below.
TAYOR... All the best traders !
FBMKLCI 19/9/20 : MINGGU KE 38 2020, LOWER HIGH?1. FBMKLCI dengan support di 1480
2. harga sudah berada di bawah EMA50&200 menandakan permulaan bearish
3. adakah kita akan menyaksikan terjunan merah minggu hadapan?
Stay Safe
Disclaimer: Hanya kajian buat pembelajaran. Sila like dan share
"Right place, right vision, right action"
KLCI START TO REBOUND SLOWLY, THIS IS THE RIGHT TIME TO ALL OUT KLCI START TO REBOUND SLOWLY, THIS IS THE RIGHT TIME TO ALL OUT (INVEST)
The more greener KLCI, the better for the retailers.English version
Today(17/9/2020), we can see that KLCI opening price is getting into every traders@investors' attention.
Based on what i can see, i always stick with my own decision by saying that KLCI will go further upwards to the blue line before doing a reversal price to the red line below.
As far as we can see, the orange line is the weekly resistance... I can say that its hardly to be broken but it doesnt mean that cannot be broken.
Since the bearish ABCD pattern is still below the weekly resistance level, i stan with my own analysis on KLCI.
All the best traders !! Trade based on what you see. Tayorrrr.
Will KLCI go up?In long term, it is a strong uptrend since it is HHHL + Y1Y2 + No Power Up. Despite W&R; reversal signal has appeared. TP @ 1904.77
In conclusion, is unlikely it will go up tremendously as there are no strong indicators yet. It may go up a little in ST because W&R; reversal signal appeared. But it may turn into downtrend quickly if the next wave is LHLL.
