Long Term Uptrend Broken - Sell Off?Looks like the long-term uptrend since the new year is broken in Nikkei. Yet, I will wait for weekly for the final confirmation. YCC is on watch. But, I don't think that affects Nikkei's outcome. No matter it's no change change, or an increase in yield, Nikkei will fall. The falling speed is the only thing different. But, I do think if YCC is tweaked, the Yen might find some strength in the short term.
Strategy: A USDJPY long + JPN225 Short. If they increase interest rate, JPN225 outshines the JPY appreciation. If they don't, JPY would 100% collapse and the long term could be pushing to 160 range, thus doesn't matter.
NKY trade ideas
J225 Upside believer!! "MAYBE"the trend on the NIKKEI has been up on the larger timeframes which makes me a bull still even though the smaller timeframes say otherwise.
I am expecting the WEEKLY support to hold and potentially break the first trendline, and target the second one for a potential rejection to where the higher timeframe UPTREND and the SUPPORT meet. which will make me for an ENTRY!
NIKKEI Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 30/10/2023 (+ Higher TF)In the higher time frame, the primary expectation is that wave (4) is not finished yet. The price action we are seeing after the WXY structure still looks corrective which makes us call for a triple three or WXYXZ structure. In the lower time frame, we have two equally valid scenarios. The wave Z has started and can unfold as either a WXY or ABC structure.
NIKKEI Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 27/10/2023In the higher time frame, the primary expectation is that wave (4) is not finished yet. The price action we are seeing after the WXY structure still looks corrective which makes us call for a triple three or WXYXZ structure. In the lower time frame, we have two equally valid scenarios. The wave Z has started and can unfold as either a WXY or ABC structure.
NIKKEI Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 26/10/2023In the higher time frame, the primary expectation is that wave (4) is not finished yet. The price action we are seeing after the WXY structure still looks corrective which makes us call for a triple three or WXYXZ structure. In the lower time frame, we have two equally valid scenarios. The way down as a wave Z could have been started. However, we favor the scenario where we first see upside to finish wave X, followed by the wave Z down.
NIKKEI Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 25/10/2023In the higher time frame, the primary expectation is that wave (4) is not finished yet. The price action we are seeing after the WXY structure still looks corrective which makes us call for a triple three or WXYXZ structure. In the lower time frame, we have two equally valid scenarios. The way down as a wave Z could have been started. However, we favor the scenario where we first see upside to finish wave X, followed by the wave Z down.
NIKKEI Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 24/10/2023In the higher time frame, the primary expectation is that wave (4) is not finished yet. The price action we are seeing after the WXY structure still looks corrective which makes us call for a triple three or WXYXZ structure. In the lower time frame, we have two equally valid scenarios. The way down as a wave Z could have been started. However, we favor the scenario where we first see upside to finish wave X, followed by the wave Z down.
Shift Bullish alright...
1.
Fundamentals point Bullish
- COT Data
- Seasonality
- GDP
- Inflation
- Labour Market / unemployment
- Interest Rates
2.
Price has been bearish for quite a while now
3.
Significant Value Area (VA)
4.
Some more bearish signs though with more absorption that pushed price below POC. Lets see if we get some signals from the CVD (delta) for short absorption and short profit taking.
#Nikkei buying opportunitHello, traders and friends. I hope you all doing well.
Let's delve into NIKKEI chart and explore why we believe there may be a potential Buying opportunity.
The three-wave bearish corrective nature of this downward leg, following a bullish impulsive wave we observed on the chart, suggests the possibility of another bullish move, potentially testing at least the upper boundary of our longer-term bearish trendline channel.
Supportive confluences that we have observed include the inner trendline, which has acted as both resistance and support multiple times, indicating traders' awareness of its significance. Additionally, the price has reached a static support line and a demand area from above, both of which serve as important support levels. Furthermore, the price retraced around 50% of the Fibonacci level of the last bullish move.
Additionally, we've observed the formation of a 4-hour bullish engulfing candle, which can be seen as a trigger for this potential buying setup.
If you have found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to leave a like and a comment or share your idea with me.
JPN225 (The Nikkei 225) - SELL (Bearish)I have a Bearish Stance on the JPN225 (The Nikkei 225)...BUT price MUST BREAK Previous Day's LOW First! No Break, No Trade.
- Previous Week's High and Current Week's Low Range Used to Plot the FIBO.
- Previous Day LOW Broken - indicating lower price ( or it might be a false break... )
- Retracement to Congestion Area (Purplish Area) Prior to the Breakout of price that took out the Previous Day's LOW
- 1:2+ RR
- TP is Previous Congestion Area (Purplish Area) + Previous Week's Open (Yellow Line)
- TP FIBO 127% and/or 168%
Use at own risk...Am a rookie!
NIKKEI Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 20/10/2023 (+ Higher TF)In the higher time frame, the primary expectation is that wave (4) is not finished yet. The price action we are seeing after the WXY structure still looks corrective which makes us call for a triple three or WXYXZ structure. In the lower time frame, we have two equally valid scenarios. The way down as a wave Z could have been started. However, we favor the scenario where we first see upside to finish wave X, followed by the wave Z down.
Nikkei225/J225
Over the past year the Nikkei 225 has had growth that brought new market highs before settling into a clearly defined sideways move.
A previous breakdown of the support area was brief before moving back into the defined channel. The second breakdown dropped to the previous market high before rebounding and then rebounding off of the support level potentially turning it into resistance.
If the price rebounds of the level a second time it will be a good confirmation and an entry for a short.
The price may find the previous high as a support level again, but if it breaks this it could be more fuel for the conversations at the moment by a number of analysts of an impending recession.
This is my own opinion and your own research may be contradictory.
NIKKEI Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 17/10/2023In the higher time frame, the primary expectation is that wave (4) has finished after a WXY correction. We had a strong reaction from the reversal areas. However, in the lower time frame, we are missing one more swing up to identify an impulse and the potential start of wave (5). If we do not get the additional swing up, we might still have further corrective price action as a wave (4).
Fair value - POC
So all underlying fundamental factors point to a Bullish direction
- COT data
- Retail sentiment
- Seasonality
- GDP
- Inflation
- Labour Market / unemployment
- Interest Rates
Cumulative volume delta actually warned me beforehand like I marked with rectangles
Missed that, Hopefully this POC will hold so we can ride the uptrend a bit longer
RN buyers are clearly in control, in this price swing I would re-trade a couple times if the continuation would start a bit later.
If not I will quit trading for ever,
Naaaaat
NIKKEI Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 16/10/2023 (+ Higher TF)In the higher time frame, the primary expectation is that wave (4) has finished after a WXY correction. We had a strong reaction from the reversal areas. However, in the lower time frame, we are missing one more swing up to identify an impulse and the potential start of wave (5). If we do not get the additional swing up, we might still have further corrective price action as a wave (4).
IS THE JP225 ON ITS WAY TO THE 33600As indicated in the chart, it is evident that we are currently experiencing a robust uptrend. However, there has been a recent corrective phase in the price action that presents an intriguing opportunity. I'd like to share my perspective, especially as an educational channel.
The JP225 has been on an upward trajectory for quite some time, and if you observe the 1-day chart, you'll notice a recent period of sideways movement with precise touches at the chart's boundaries. Initially, there was an attempt to create an upward spring that proved unsuccessful, but over the past couple of weeks, a clear false breakdown in the downtrend has emerged.
It's important to note that this analysis is not intended as trading advice. Here are the details of the setup:
Entry Price: 31,540
Stop Loss (SL): 31,000
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 32,160
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 33,317
we are alreay 200 pips in profit the old post got removed
Nikkei has turned positive.NIK225 - 24h expiry
Previous resistance level of 31399 broken.
The current move higher is expected to continue.
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Short term bias has turned positive.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
We look to Buy at 31405 (stop at 31145)
Our profit targets will be 32055 and 32185
Resistance: 32170 / 32450 / 32780
Support: 31765 / 31250 / 30600
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Sideway Corrective Is Done ! Wait For confirmedGreetings, dear friends. I hope you are having a productive week.
I want to share my market analysis ideas based on the Elliott Wave Principle with you.
I am a fan of this principle and follow all the rules and guidelines for analyzing the market.
However, please note that my ideas are based on my personal experience and may change over time.
If there is an error in my analysis, I am open to re-analyzing it from the beginning and learning from my mistakes.
It's important to understand that making an error in analysis is not a fault, but evading responsibility is.
No one can analyze financial markets with 100% accuracy, but it's remarkable how close we can get.
We analyze from multiple perspectives to consider all possibilities.
Let's mention a few opinions and ideas!
Based on mathematics.
I am still practicing to understand the Elliott Wave Principle better and hope to provide an even better analysis in the future.
Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to our mutual success.
Best regards,
Mr. Nobody
Keep trying and never give up.
Good luck!