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NKY trade ideas

JPN225: Ascending Channel UptrendThe JPN225 has been steadily advancing within the confines of an ascending chanel. This pattern suggests a series of higher highs and higher lows, reflecting consistent buying pressure and an overall bullish bias. Within this ascending channel, a symmetrical triangle has formed. The triangle is characterized by a converging range of price action, as both the swing highs and swing lows gradually converge toward a breakout point. The narrowing range indicates decreasing volatility and potential pent-up momentum.
BLACKBULL:JPN225Long
by UnknownUnicorn48526553
NI225 has closed positive for 9 consecutive weeks !NI225 has closed positive for 9 consecutive weeks ! Is it about to reverse? This chart shows the weekly candle chart of the Nikkei Stock Index from the end of 2019 to the present. The graph overlays the line between the low point in 2020 and the low point in March 2023, the line between the low point in 2023 and the sub low point, as well as the horizontal line of the short start position in September 2021 and the horizontal line of the long start position in April 2023. As shown in the figure, the Nikkei Index has closed positive for 9 consecutive weeks and has exceeded its limit! In the next week, as the strongest Nikkei index in the near future, there is a high probability that it will lead the global stock index to retreat, probably by stepping back on the top diagonal line in the chart, and then choosing a direction!
TVC:NI225
by Think_More
1
NIKKEI INDEX BEARISH OUTLOOKNIKKEI Index, alongside most Asian stocks, dipped in the Thursday trading session, amid concerns regarding rising interest rates and slowing growth of the global economy. The investors are still anxious to invest in risky assets before the Fed meeting, which will determine rather to hike the interest rates or hold. The analysts are divided on the issue due to mixed economic data. The price chart had formed a bearish engulfing Wednesday and keeps the trend Thursday as well, failing with 0.2%. MACD and RSI indicators are still high, but the slow moving average of the RSI had crossed the overbought barrier from above, and the MACD histogram is declining. If the trend continues, the price might target levels of 31648.81 and 31383.88. On the other hand, if it crosses the pivot point of 32178.67, it might test its resistance level at 32443.6. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:JPN225Short
by legacyFXofficial
Corporate governance reforms are working for JapanJapan1 is trading at a 33-year high, despite a challenging global macro backdrop. At 15x forward Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio, Japan has been trading at a valuation discount versus global peers, for a considerable period of time. We are finally starting to see a number of catalysts help narrow the wide valuation gap versus global peers – an improvement in corporate governance, rebound in domestic consumption post the pandemic, strong earnings results in FY3/23 and a weaker yen. This has led to a notable influx of overseas investor capital into Japanese stocks for 8 weeks in a row. This rally was initially stoked by Warren Buffet publicly investing in Japan’s five leading trading companies. Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffets industrial and insurance conglomerate also said it intended to hold onto the investments for the long haul and could increase the size of its holdings to as much as 9.9%. The Japanese equity rally has also been fuelled further by a combination of strong macro-economic data and solid earnings results which saw ¥5Trn in buyback announcements. On the macro front, the re-opening driven rebound in domestic demand is supporting the economy. Recovery in Travel demand boosts business confidence According to data on travel and tourism from the Japan Tourism Agency (JTA), spending on domestic travel reached ¥4.2Trn in Jan- March 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels slightly. The rapid recovery in inbound consumption is also a tailwind with the number of visitors to Japan in April back up to 73% of the 2019 average. Strong travel demand is supportive for business confidence. In tandem, the May services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reached its highest level since the survey began in 2007. This is consistent with trends in consumer sentiment evident from the May consumer confidence survey which showed an improvement in the consumer confidence index for the third month in a row2. Rebound in domestic demand aids growth According to preliminary estimates, GDP in Jan-Mar Calendar Year (CY)23 grew by 0.4% following two quarters of negative growth3. The main driver was private second demand, with consumption rising 0.6% and capex up 0.9% quarter on quarter (QoQ)3. Even public investment, which has been weak for a while, rose 2.4% QoQ contributing 0.1% to GDP growth. On the flipside external demand, highlighted in the export trade data, contracted 4.2%, dragging down headline GDP growth by 0.9%. While inbound spending, classified as services exports in the GDP statistics, increased 5.6% QoQ, goods exports contracted 6.5%3. Fast forward through years of deflation, inflation is beginning to trend higher. Inflation triggered by structural labour shortages is forcing companies to raise wages meaningfully and re-think their pricing strategy. So, while the rest of the world is battling inflation fires, Japan is trying to ignite one. However, the most recent inflation print in May showed a surprising slowdown in Tokyo core price gains. Slower inflation is good news for households, which are spending more as the economy re-opens. It also gives further ammunition for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to maintain its stance on ultra loose monetary policy. BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledges that Japan’s economy continues to require significant stimulus to maintain a goal of stable demand-driven 2% inflation. Owing to which, we have seen the Japanese Yen decline 5.51%4 versus the US dollar. This in turn has made Japanese exports cheaper aiding Japanese export companies. The myth that Japanese companies do not reward shareholders has been dispelled now Japan’s Fiscal Year 31 March 2023 earnings season witnessed results that were resilient overall. What stood out was the large increase in the number of share buyback announcements ¥5Trn. This was not a consequence of profit growth alone but more likely a result of the changes of the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s (TSE) Price/Book (P/B) criteria as discussed here. Share buybacks have attracted foreign investors and is providing an important tailwind for Japanese equities. Corporate governance reform has been a thematic in Japan for seven years. However, this time we are seeing reform make breakthroughs. We got early indications from the mini-March annual shareholder meeting that showed Japanese investors voting more actively at AGMs. The next major catalyst will be the June AGM season. In regard to the potential impact to the new TSE guidelines on Japanese companies, feedback initially was mixed. However, we have seen 15%+ moves on the day of reform announcements by Japanese companies which confirms the market is clearly rewarding companies that are being proactive. Solid earnings results provide a tailwind for Japanese equities Japan’s Fiscal Year 31 March 2023 earnings results were resilient highlighting sales growth 16.4% YoY and 2% in net profits YoY5. The sectors that guided for the highest earnings growth in Fiscal Year 31 March 2024 are the ones that benefit from lower materials prices, namely electric power & gas, pulp & paper, and glass & ceramics. The domestic demand-led sectors are posed to benefit from reopening and inbound tourism, including land transportation, retail, and financial. They also issued the next strongest earnings guidance.
TVC:NI225
by aneekaguptaWTE
Nikkei to find support at weekly pivot?NIK225 - 24h expiry Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A lower correction is expected. We prefer to consider the medium term trend and expect buying interest to support as prices move lower. Weekly pivot is at 30753. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 30750 level. We look to Buy at 30750 (stop at 30570) Our profit targets will be 31190 and 31280 Resistance: 31410 / 32200 / 32610 Support: 30300 / 29710 / 29295 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225USDLong
by OANDA
JP225 to see a lower correction?NIK225 - 24h expiry We are trading at oversold extremes. A higher correction is expected. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. The 50% Fibonacci retracement is located at 30124 from 28893 to 31355. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 30125 level. We look to Buy at 30125 (stop at 29925) Our profit targets will be 30625 and 30725 Resistance: 31410 / 32200 / 32610 Support: 30300 / 29710 / 29295 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:JP225USDLong
by OANDA
POTENTIAL SHORT TRADE SET UP FOR JP225Pair: JP225 Analysis: Chart Patterns + Highs & Lows + Impulses & Corrections Directional Bias: Short Entry: Continuation Corrective Structure after the breakout. ⚠️ Do your research and apply proper risk management as nothing is guaranteed in forex trading. As we have often said, this is a high risk venture and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade Responsibly! #TheTradingAmbience 🙏🏽🙇🏽‍♀️
OANDA:JP225USDShort
by TheTradingAmbience
Gone Too Far…As the world remains engrossed in the unfolding drama of the debt ceiling, we believe another event of significance deserves our attention. Let's take a brief detour into the annals of economic history, looking at the era of Abenomics. This term refers to the monetary policy instituted during Shinzo Abe's second term as Prime Minister of Japan. Abenomics rested on the foundation of "Three Arrows" - aggressive monetary policy, fiscal consolidation, and a robust growth strategy. The outcome? The Nikkei embarked on an impressive bull run, seemingly unstoppable in its upward trajectory. This performance becomes all the more remarkable when compared to the S&P500, which managed a modest gain of only 12% over the same period. This comparison sparked an intriguing question: How do these two indices compare now, especially with the Nikkei shattering two-decade highs? When we chart the spread, the ratio of Nikkei 225 to S&P 500 stands on the brink of upper resistance, a boundary that has proven significant for nearly a decade. A more granular exploration of each index reveals some compelling details. For the S&P 500, we observe a break of the upper resistance as well as a break from an ascending triangle, both of which signify a bullish continuation. While RSI has not yet reached the overbought territory. On the other hand, the recent surge in the Nikkei 225 index has been robust and swift, surpassing the 2021 highs, with the RSI indicating an extreme overbought scenario. Thus, we suspect that the Nikkei's meteoric ascent may have overshot its mark. This situation presents an intriguing trading opportunity: shorting the Nikkei 225 / S&P 500 spread. This can be executed by shorting the Nikkei 225 Futures and going long on the S&P 500 Futures. To match the Nikkei 225 USD contract size at the current price of 31,300 with a contract value of 31,300 x 5 = 156,500 USD, we could utilize the Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures at the current price of 4,215 with a contract value of 4,125 x 5 = 21,075 USD. Hence, to balance the position size, we could employ 1 Nikkei 225 contract and 7 Micro S&P 500 contracts. The Nikkei 225 USD Futures represents 5 USD x Nikkei Stock Average. Prices are quoted in US dollars and cents per index point, each 5 point move is equal to 25 USD. The Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures represents 5 USD x S&P 500 index. Prices are quoted in US dollars and cents per index point, each 0.25 index point move is equal to 1.25 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.adb.org www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
TVC:NI225Short
by inspirante