RSI of % SPX Stock Above 50D MA at 15.65 !Only 4 time we have had such low signal or lower reading !!!
S5FI trade ideas
Short Term Out-Look for Stock WeaknessThe number of stocks below their 50-day moving average are nearing the 3.618 % Fib-Extension, which does not mean it cannot reach even the 4.618 % level. Most likely to my experiance, stocks will recover short term after todays "witches" have finished their "rituals".
I expect intraday to become ugly eventually at some point to draw the candle of a "hanging man". History tells us that it is safe to buy after December 24th after a failed X-Mas rally. Good luck and take responsibility for your trades!
S&P 500 Has Potential For Massive Buying OpportunityIn this video, I cover the SP 500 stocks over their 50-day moving average. We are never had previous highs and have potentially formed a double-top higher high after some climatic activity. If this is a rollover a measured move of the first leg brings us into 3% territory.
With rate hikes upon us, it could change the characteristic of this potential downward trajectory but, I think we see a larger dip regardless.
Divergence in S&P 500 may signal incoming correctionIndices have been hitting all time highs but the number of stocks trading above their 50MA has fallen. I believe we may finally be looking at a correction. As we get into the next quarter earnings season, it will be whether stocks can continue to exceed expectations and keep the market excited about what's ahead.
The AI hype may fade quickly and in a deadly way. Lets also not forget that the dollar has been on a decent run, this could hurt earnings of our multinational companies and lead to a few misses on the bottom line.
Point of this message? Trade widely going into the April through June months. Things have been less volatile and markets have been giving us a melt upward, however I think the chances of trading lower than we are over the next 90 days is relatively high.
Is the correction over?The % of stocks above their 50-day MAs is signaling that an upward rally is near.
Not only it already went below 10% but now is showing a bullish divergence with the $SPX.
A good confirmation for a changing mid-term trend, not only would be that the CBOE:SPX gets back above its 50-day MA but also that this index gets above 30%.
Short term bounce may be just around the cornerHere come MA200. Strong support for SPY @ ~420.
The -10% level below water mark (HH) is 412.
Is a market of stocks, not a stock market?You can argue that there are several stocks that are working.
I profited on two stocks this month but weren't big profits.
Some say that is still a bear market, others that is already a bull market as the NASDAQ:IXIC already rallied 20% from its low.
I will just say that is an unhealthy market. This -8% drop in the CBOE:SPX wasn't a normal correction.
Just look at how corrections within bull markets behaved in the past, the % of stocks above their 50-day MA never crossed below 20%.
Sure you can find stocks going up, but they won't have the support of a bull market just yet.
SP500 50 day moving average topsSP500 50 day moving average tops coincide with tops in SPX.
LEvels for tops marked.
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<3 TTZ.
S&P 500 SPX SPY ES1! Breadth (S5FI) & (S5TH) - Updated 011623Looking at the latest S&P 500 SPX (SPY ES1!) "Breadth" data , including Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average (S5FI) & Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average" (S5TH) — this is yet another indicator that we have been tracking since the start of the market downturn (correction/bear market) in late 21' / early 22' as it has helped to signal buy/sell signals.
Here's what you'll find on this chart: 📊
Top Section
Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average (S5FI) = Blue Line: *CHART NOTE* Pay close attention to the horizontal (Blue Dotted Line), which signals/coincides with relative tops in breadth that match the SPX resistance.
Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average" (S5TH) = Orange Line: *CHART NOTE* Pay close attention to the horizontal (Orange Dotted Line), which signals/coincides with relative tops in breadth that match the SPX resistance.
Bottom Section
S&P 500 SPX (SPY ES1!) = Teal Line
Support/Resistance (Bear Flag Pattern) = Vertical Red Lines
Pay close attention to the (Red Dotted Lines), as these mark relief rally tops in the SPX (SPY ES1!). Conindiencely enough, these "alignments" of technical signals closely match the resistance (Red Line) that is now sitting around $4,000 S&P 500 SPX (SPY ES1!).
What do you think about this S&P 500 SPX (SPY ES1!) contrarian (sell) indicator? 📈📉
Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
% Stocks over 50 DMAEvery prior time this indicator has hit 91%+, the market began a new descent.
JPOW's comments signaled a dovish Fed with a pivot incoming.
Will the 50DMA bear sign still hold that trend as a signal to sell?
Perhaps not, zooming out to prior instances of the stocks over the 50DMA we can see it never signaled sell-offs like in this current bear market. The last few times it's sold off has been due to the overall macro conditions (bear market), so the question to be asked is if the market's *view* of the macro conditions have changed after hearing JPOW, for the first time, say there are good signs.
SPX rally just startedEvery time S5FI falls below 10, a strong rally in SPX follows. And the last one started yesterday
SPY REBOUND!!!!!!I know there are a million reasons to be bearish, and this is just an idea!!! remember that lol
The main chart is stock below there 50 day moving average After today I am sure its about 2%. The SP has been in a down trend ever since Powell talked on the 13th I think it was.
The SP is also coming up on the (weekly) 200 day moving average which is 358.19. I know it hasn't reached that level yet but its dang close. The last two times that 20 was the deep in the 50 day moving average it also ways seemed to rebound might not be tmrw, but soon.
I think that 380 is a good level to sell at if it does rally I think long run the pre covid high will be the bottom.
Trade safe yall.
Breath gave the signal for correctionThe percentage of stocks of the SP:SPX got above 80% last week. For the last 4 years, this has been a very good signal for excess and a correction is due.
Use this to find strength. The stocks that manage to stay above its 50-day MA may be the ones that lead the next move. At the moment oil, gas and some solar stocks dominate my watchlist. And I am a Bottom-Up trader.
Also, according to this breath indicator, the bottom already happened. Just like in 2020, INDEX:S5FI got below 2%. As it shows, it signaled the bottom.
Market Breadth.. great tool for entry timingAre you looking for an edge in swing trading/long term investing? I highly suggest using market breadth!
Highlighted with vertical lines on the chart and yellow and red circles in the breadth chart (% of S&P above their 50 day MA) are all instances when breadth dropped to 50 or 30% AFTER rising from 10 to 91%. As you can see from the chart in all historical cases breadth went back up to at least 75% signaling and end to the correction/bear market.
We are currently sitting at 48ish %. If breadth goes back up above 50 to 75% then history tells us (based on collective actions of all market participants) that this signals a move to new all time high!
set of trend indicatorstop MADX - number of Highs minus Lows for last 52 weeks
S5FI - number of S&P 500 stocks above 50 days Moving average
S5TH - number of S&P 500 stocks above 200 days Moving average
bottom - SPX index
Reversal likely to hold up #SPX $SPY $RSP I expect some continuation from this recent rally. The percentage of SPX stocks trading above their 50-day MA is now bouncing from being too far below the lower band of the channel I have defined.
Annotated on the chart are the previous times it significantly breached the lower band.
MACD histogram turning green with MACD line curling up for a cross. RSI bounced and has some momentum. Next test at 50.
Bar some terrible news from Ukraine or Taiwan, we should see some of this momentum carry the market higher. For how long? Unclear. I would like to see $RSP start to outperform $SPY to signify broad strength opposed to a few names carrying the entire index (not sustainable or healthy).
Market Breadth - one measureThus far in 2022, the overall S&P 500 index has struggled. In weighing the collective evidence of stock market health, we may seek breadth measures or tools to see how the component stocks to this index are individually performing as well. Here, the percentage of $SPY stocks trading above their 50 day moving average (plotted weekly) is shown to fluctuate widely. Note, however, that it is presently sitting below two important levels -- both the roughly 55%-60% (light grey) zone, and also underneath 45% (dashed black line). Until this breadth measure can inch back towards the "healthy" zone, investors may wish to consider this tool to be voting "risk off".
S&P: NOT Ready to Call a Bottom!!Last Friday’s price action certainly ignited calls of a ‘bottom’ in this market rout that started in earnest in Nov 2021. But as they say, ‘not so fast’!
Gina Martin Adams, Chief Equity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence noted in a recent tweet that “all of the major bottoms since 2009 occurred with less than 5% of the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day moving averages”.
The attached chart shows the recent low of that percentage at roughly 15% before popping last Friday to 21ish. So by that measure, we’re not quite confirmed for a bottom. (I included the data going back to the Covid-lows of March 2020 for good measure, not expecting it to got there, but to give an order-of-magnitude for ‘worst case scenario’).
Separately, FactSet recently published the data on the S&P 500 Forward 12-month P/E Ratio noting that it was at 17.6, down from November’s level of 21+, below the 5yr average of 18.6, but still above the 10yr average of 16.9. They also noted that the last time the number was below 18 was in April 2020!
Admittedly, there is a great deal of bad news already priced into the market…higher rates, higher inflation, higher wages, likelihood of demand destruction, possible Covid strains reigniting lockdowns, energy prices soaring, Russia’s war, fear of tactical nuclear weapons being used, etc. So a bounce seemed more than overdo. But ‘buyer beware’…a ‘bounce’ does not a ‘bottom’ make!
spx stock above 50 DMAVery interesting on the bottom side, almost all cases confirmed when under 10, i might missed allot :-) but you got the point.
wish you all the best.
SPX'S Stocks above 50d MA, more are participating on this move.We broke out of upper channel's line
more SPX's members participating
in this bullish move.
Large Cap Showing Slightly More Divergence Than Mid & Small CapConstituents above 50MA & YTD price returns:
Large-Cap: 62%, Up 20%
Mid-Cap: 65%, Up 17%
Small-Cap: 61%, Up 20%
It makes sense that large-caps are expressing the largest divergence between returns & constituents given the concentration of the index and no upper market-cap bound.
Large-Cap AMEX:SPY
Mid-Cap AMEX:MDY
Small-Cap AMEX:SLY
