% SPX Stock above 200D MA. RSI hitting a rare signal !18.5 is a rare number to see. Only 8 since 2007, with 7 Down vs 1 up !
Will this rhythm, time will tell !!!
S5TH trade ideas
Percentage of stocks in the SP500 above their 200SMAPowerful divergence on the SPX.
New highs, still with less components pushing
Using S5TH (spx stocks above 200dma) as an oscillator timing cycPretty cool feature. You can use the 9month moving average in S5TH (spx stocks above the 200dma) to time the market cycle. Figure out the upward momentum (with help of game theory and TNX cycle). In practice and theory peoples options should be predictable because everyone act in their self-interest, seeking safety (hypothetical riskfree) and potential.
I use this as an oschilator (like RSI).. above 50% reading is bull market (because more than 50% stocks above it's 200dma).
This thing points to bull market to at least like 2025 summer. Worth noting that business cycle and TNX patterns are key here.
S&P vs %stocks above 200EMAComparison of S&P vs %stocks above 200EMA hints a recovery with new highs.
Good breadth is a bad signUsually, you want a bull market to have breadth but on occasion things get quite over extended and even the weak stocks start to run. This is reflected in the market breadth and when it gets too high, it's time to start preparing for a correction
SP 500 stocks above 200 MV V 50 MVlooks like 200 MV following 50MV , meaning more pain to come due to decline broadening
BreadthKey Markets: Ratings
Yesterday evening I reviewed several names in my report THE SUM OF THE CHARTS. These included NPN , GLN , SSW , AMS and more.
For more research insights (including trade ideas) get in touch today.
Percentage of Stocks above 200 day Moving Average Percentage of Stocks above 200 day Moving Average
Show breadth of recovery
looks impressive
S&P 500 just 21% of stocks above their 200D MAS&P 500 vs its stocks above the 200 day MA:
Bottom chart shows the S&P since 2008.
The chart on top, tracks the percentage of stocks above their 200 day Moving average for stocks that make up the S&P 500 .
In April of 2021, 96% of the S&P stocks traded above their 200 day MA. Currently just 21% remain above their 200 day MA.
Below the 30% thresh-hold it would appear that the trend will continue lower.
Between 30% and 50% the S&P could chop around in a sideways pattern for some time looking for more direction.
A move back above the 50% line should see more money re entering. A move above the 70% line should indicate a return to an uptrend.
A drop to 1%-5% should be an automatic buy back in from the Big Money crowd
🟩 STOCKS ABOVE 200DMA - BULLISHWhile the general market indexes has been unconstructive (top chart) the stocks underneath the service are improving (bottom chart).
In this case we are looking at the stocks in the SP500 that are above their 200D MA (Picture is similar for the Nasdaq) - this is a bullish indicator and the reason why I am starting to dip toe in the water.
Remember this is was one of the main indications when I issued a sell alert in November 21.
BREADTH: S&P 500 Stocks Above 200-day MA (%) - 16-Year BREADTH: S&P 500 Stocks Above 200-day MA (%) - 16-Year Trend
47% of S&P 500 shares closed above their 200-day SMA's. The mid-point of the 16-year trend.
Is this the best breath indicator for the S&P 500?I don't know if I even have to explain this chart. Is just too easy to see.
The number of SP:SPX stocks above its 200-day MA confirmes a bear market when crosses below 50, and confirms a bull market when crosses above the same level and stays there.
It has happened for the last 3 bear markets.
Also, is good to point out that is better to use it for bottoms than for tops. Everytime it touched 20, it was a mayor bottom for the SP:SPX . For tops there has to be divergence.
This time, just like in the 2015-16 bear market, it crossed the 20 line two times. And the second time marked THE bottom. Will it be different this time?
As long as it doesn't goes below the 50 line again I'll behave as if we are in a bull market.
Don't wait for the news to catch up with the market.
200 MA breadth analysis indicates SPX goes up from here!This idea is based on the analysis of the 200 day moving average breadth data for the SPX. Every time since 2007, when market breadth broke out of a downwards moving channel this was an excellent buying signal for the SPX. This signal can be seen as a confirmation for the end of the downwards correction and/or bear market. We recently had such a signal on Oct 24th!.
Buy the Dip ?? SP500A look at the oversold vs overbought zones based solely on the amount of stocks above the 200 day Moving Average
A massive bear market rally has just begunWhat I've shown in this video is an indicator to determine market breadth. When breadth reaches the extreme lows (like it did 2 weeks back), massive multi year bottoms have followed. However, this time I think it'll just be a multi week bear market bounce as we are in a long term bear market.
TAKEAWAY: SPY could go up to ~430 which would translate to ~17% rally from the bottom. Time frame is approximately early August.
A Relief Rally Ending?Generally speaking, it is never a good sign when 50% or more of the S&P 500 stocks are trading below their 200 day moving average (DMA). The % over 200dma graphed here is displaying a negative slope, and this is not indicative of a bull market. March may have yielded a $SPY relief rally that initially looked good, but has now run its course after retracing approx 2/3 of the fall from the S&P peak. Stay alert and watch closely to protect portfolios in case this downtrend continues.
S5TH and Recession: a deep linkLors des recessions de ce siecle, on a atteind le même niveau sur le S5TH
Lorsqu'atteins une première fois, on avait "effectué" la moitié de la récession
Extreme market breadth saying a major bounce is comingIn this video, I've shown a means of measuring the current breadth in the market. It's at extreme lows which have historically marked major bottoms for the market.
TAKEAWAY
Combining this with my cycle analysis, I think a rally is coming over the next 6 weeks
Breadth 200Stream of thought Looking at Extremes for % of Stocks Under/Over their respective 200DMAs in the S&P .
Lot more context is needed to refine the strategy like Where % of Stocks Under/Over 200
Breadth 50Stream of thought Looking at Extremes for % of Stocks Under/Over their respective 50DMAs in the S&P .
Lot more context is needed to refine the strategy like Where % of Stocks Under/Over 200
Will go through each part individually then put them together.
BreadthStream of thought Looking at Extremes for % of Stocks Under/Over their respective 20DMAs in the S&P .
Lot more context is needed to refine the strategy like Where % of Stocks Under/Over 200 & 50 DMAs .
Will go through each part individually then put them together.
BreadthStream of thought Looking at Extremes for % of Stocks Under/Over their respective 20DMAs in the S&P.
Lot more context is needed to refine the strategy like Where % of Stocks Under/Over 200 & 50 DMAs.
Will go through each part individually then put them together.
S&P 500 just 45% of stocks above their 200D MAS&P 500 vs its stocks above the 200 day MA: Bottom chart shows the S&P since 2008. The recent run up on the chart hides many of the details on this weekly chart. The chart on top, tracks the percentage of stocks above their 200 day Moving average for stocks that make up the S&P 500 .
In April of 2021, 96% of the S&P stocks traded above their 200 day MA. Currently just about 45% remain above their 200 day MA.
Bulls and Bears need to decide who is going to take over. In the past, the 40%-50% range was an area to pivot from on a correction.
Other years this represented a staging area for the "smart money" to reposition and watch the market move lower.
A similar 20% correction to other years has the S&P measured down to 3840 area.
A major break with 70% or more stocks trading below their 200 day MA could see a more serious 35%-50% correction.
