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INDIAN RUPEE / U.S. DOLLAR

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INRUSD trade ideas

DX (Dollar Index) – Can it spill out the beans for India NiftyDX (Dollar Index) – Can it spill out the beans for India Nifty. (This technical story connects you to GBPUSD-cable, USDINR & India Nifty). Since 2011 March, DX has travelled in an impulsive manner till March 2015 & since March 2015—it has been travelling into consolidation mode & appears to be shaping out a triangle pattern who’s C-leg is done. So, any movement above 95.50- could show us the way that D-leg has started & shall travel atleast 98—98.50 where it shall complete 61.8% of the B-leg. Now, if you flip this triangle –you will realise that we have similar pattern in GBPUSD (Cable) –both are shaping out triangles where GBPUSD is about start d-leg in downside direction which will be confirmed once pair moves below 1.42979 DX & USDINR Connection- As DX is shaping out a triangle & getting support of rising trendline & about to start d-leg of the triangle atleast for targets 98—98.50 …similarly USDINR is taking support of rising trendline & we could see another upside leg if 65.95 is intact on closing basis & should not fall below rising channel in that case we can look out for 68-68.50’s zone as target. DX & India Nifty Connection- Why One should be cautious at current levels: India Nifty has travelled quiet impulsively since 6825 to 7980- technically 7980 has been the resistance in early Jan 2016 & Nifty broke 1000 points—same resistance was seen in Dec 2015 as well & what a coincidence –we touched 7980 just recently in 18—22nd April 2016 week as well- giving us triple top formation which suggest that we should avoid taking long positions & should wait for clear signals. Clear bullish direction will arise when Nifty closes above 7980 & most important mark 8000 (7515 is key support level) It looks like we are done with 5 waves upside since 6825 but yes we still don’t have any confirmation of going shorts and In coming days we should be careful & keep a watch on Dollar Index- which is looking bullish Now, If Dollar Index starts moving above 95.50---probably it can cause pain to Indian equities & spill out the beans for the same. Regards, Abhishek H.Singh,CMT
Long
by WaveTalks
USD/INR bounces above 7DMA but finds resistance at 21DMATechnical glimpse: The breakdown in USD/INR continues with a renewed trending bias. The break out above of the resistance 66.68 zone (Jan breakout/21DMA) highlights the importance of the upward targets. Otherwise, December lows with violations confirming a deeper corrective phase upto 65.96 levels. Upswings are healthy so far confirmed by both leading and lagging oscillators, (see daily charts for RSI, stochastic's positive convergence with price spikes and MACD's attempts of bullish crossover). The pair has edged up higher upto 66.71 in early Asian session but failed to sustain at higher levels, currently hovering exactly at resistance 66.68. These daily upswings raises caution for aggressive bears in monthly terms, thus it would be wiser to wait for confirmation from EMAs if it shows bearish crossover. If RSI curve drags above, then it is a sign making higher highs even though month has just begun as it has tested supports at 66.9257 levels. You can probably observe the historic levels that resembles the same pattern and moved way above. Option Trade Tips: In FX option market for USDINR regulated by NSE, please be noted that the highest open interest is observed in OTM strikes calls (i.e. 67 levels) on NSE (National Stock Exchange). Hence, we advise for trading purpose, avoid options with lower volumes and lower open interest. USD/INR vol-adjusted carry has jumped back to pre-tapering levels. So, dubious bulls on hedging grounds, earn carry through 1M USD put spreads. Enter USD/INR put spreads that offer pre-taper tantrum levels of vol-adjusted carry.
by FxWirePro
1
Indian rupee on gaining streak - FX derivatives trade ideasThe breakdown in USD/INR continues with a renewed trending bias. The break of the 67/66.55 support zone (Jan breakout/July TL) highlights the importance of the 65.85 Dec low with violations confirming a deeper corrective phase. USD/INR: The pair has edged up higher at 66.86 in early Asian session but failed to sustain at higher levels and ended with a bearish candle with current levels of 66.575. Slide below 66.6 has indicated that pullback is over and prices are likely to resume their primary downtrend. Option Trade Tips: USD/INR vol-adjusted carry has jumped back to pre-tapering levels. Earn carry through 2M USD put spreads. enter USD/INR put spreads that offer pre-taper tantrum levels of vol-adjusted carry. EUR/INR: EUR edging lower to levels of 74.578 which is below 7 & 21DMA that indicating breach of downwards sloping support line and 21DMA. Daily RSI after testing resistance levels of 50 has slipped to 48 levels. Prices are likely to breach the support line and retest recent bottom of 73.72. So it is better go short in mid month futures. GBP/INR: This pair violated the short-term uptrend line and ended well below the same. Visible downside gap is showing the strength of the bears in the pair. Thus, it is most likely that prices will break the recent bottom of 94.087 and test the lower levels of 94. So we like to maintain the same strategy using futures contracts as we did it in EURINR case, it is better go short in mid month futures ahead of Brexit scenario (UK referendum scheduled in June).
Short
by FxWirePro
2
USDINR - WHAT NEXT (caution) After a very predictable pullback on extension zone we have 1) a massive divergence on 8h frame 2) a stop falling on the 0.618 fibs 3) just under the 0.5 fibs of the initial extension move some support zone in think. Maybe some pullback from here can happen watching closely Trade your plan - if you dont have any, avoid to trade - stay safe Thanks for clicking the like button. In case of another view, questions or comments ? share it with pleasure More ideas following. Click the follow button to keep updated when I publish new ideas or update already published ones. Thanks for your visit ! Update status (Warning. I am a private trader. I don't sell any signals, equipment or other sources of learning about forex. I am here to share ideas based on technical analysis to improve my ownForex practice. Trading forex is dangerous and can result in significant financial losses. So I am not responsible when the results of the positions to be taken on the basis of my charts since these constitute no basic signals but simply my own market analysis. As i always says, trade your plan and if you don't have any, avoid trading.)
by BLUE43
Option straddle to serve best for USD/INR risks ahead of budgetIt's a big day for INR today, after consistent loses against dollar, Monday morning has nothing positive to offer given the subdued global sentiment. Yes, all eyes will be on the Union Budget which Finance Minister Arun Jaitley would present around 11 am. The key focus would be on Corporate tax reduction, increasing service tax rate, some steps towards GST implementation, capital support for PSU banks and divestment of government stakes in PSUs along with some reforms are among the broad expectations. As a result, we've already seen FIIs sell in equities to the tune of Rs. 695 crores. While in Index Futures, they bought of worth Rs. 734 crores with marginal change in open interest, indicating blend to both long formation and short covering in last trading session. Technically, although USDINR showing some upside potential, it has been losing upswings momentum from last couple of trading days as the rejection of resistance at 68.7539 levels. Even though the bears began pushing downwards we saw sharp bounces every now and then, thereby we could see bull candles with big real body quite often. Leading oscillators are also moving in linear direction to signify indecision but slightly narrowed curve indicates reduced momentum in previous intraday selling pressures and so is the MACD. On a significant economic event today, we now keep an eye on potential breach above mentioned resistance at 68.7539 levels and INR gains on the contrary, options straddle is the best suitable in such range bounded circumstances in put with 50% delta. Long options straddle that fetched unlimited returns during higher implied volatility scenarios short term. So, go simultaneously long in at the money call and, and limited risk to the extent of initial premiums paid options. Well, this option trading strategy that are usually used during significant economic news, in this case when the options trader ponders that the USDINR will experience significant volatility ahead budget event, in the near term it would be highly volatile pair to trade with but expects the swings in either way.
by FxWirePro
1
Will USDINR breakout and depreciate INR further?China's central bank guided the yuan lower on Thursday FX_IDC:CNYUSD . China's first shock devaluation in August jolted the global financial markets and Indian currency "INR" was also affected by this sudden move. This second devaluation has come at such a crucial time, when money market was expecting strengthening in "INR" and start of appreciating trend. Can "INR" sustain the pressure or it will prevail further devaluation? Go long FX_IDC:USDINR Trade Trigger 67.2 Target 68.6 SLTP 66.7
Long
by GundyaBhau