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INDIAN RUPEE / U.S. DOLLAR

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USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogPast week saw a narrow range of 81.57-82.14. The Monthly candle shows a bearish candle. A close below 81.60 favors further lower levels. After almost 2 months the currency broke the support at 82.05. There is not much change in the earlier observations of the likely scenario which would be a consolidation between 81.60 and 82.15. Break below 81.60 could lead to a sharp move towards the target of 81.10 and finally 80.60. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: • The currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83 • Moves in Dollar Index-DXY does not have exact correlation • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30 • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference. o The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70. o This range is continuing to be protected o This week is crucial for the pair to break or bounce o The target for this move is 80.60 provided 81.60 is taken out on a closing basis Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR -Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogPast week saw a narrow range of 81.80-82.45. The Monthly candle still shows a bearish candle. We need to see a daily close below 81.60 for further lower levels. After almost 2 months the currency broke the support at 82.05. There is not much change in the earlier observations of the likely scenario which would be a consolidation between 81.60 and 82.45. Break below 81.60 could lead to a sharp move towards the target of 80.60. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: The currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83 Moves in Dollar Index-DXY does not have exact correlation The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30 As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70. This range is continuing to be protected The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue The target for this move is 80.60 provided 81.60 is taken out on a closing basis Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogPast week saw a narrow range of 82.04-82.48. The Monthly candle still shows a bearish candle. We need to see a daily close below 81.70 for further lower levels. The currency shows extraordinary resilience and refusing to move below 82. There is not much change in the earlier observations of the likely scenario which would be a consolidation between 81.70 and 83.10. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: • The currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83 • Dollar Index-DXY is likely to continue the familiar range of 101-105. • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30 • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference. o The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70. o This range is continuing to be protected o The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogPast week saw an unexpected selling towards 82.05 which gave opportunity for the importers to hedge partly and the pair later closed at 82.31. The Monthly candle still shows a bearish candle. We need to see a daily close below 81.70 for further lower levels. This month being the year end it appears less likely that we may see lower levels. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 81.70 and 83.10. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: The currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83 Dollar Index-DXY is likely to continue the familiar range of 101-105. The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30 As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70. o Will this range be protected for one more time? We may get further clues by the end of this week o The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogPast week saw a heavy buying interest as the support at 81.70 was holding for the second week. The Monthly candle still shows a bearish candle. We need to see a daily close below 81.70 for further lower levels. This month being the year end it appears less likely that we may see lower levels. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 81.70 and 83.10. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: The currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83 Dollar Index-DXY is likely to continue the familiar range of 101-105. The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30 As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70. Will this range be protected for one more time? We may get further clues by the end of this week The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogPast week saw a consolidation after a sharp fall in the previous week. The support at 81.70 is seen as crucial and a daily close below would trigger next round of selling and could drift towards the next support at 81.20. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 81.20 and 82.74. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. If the momentum continues we may see the pair drifting towards 79.90. A few more observations: The currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83 Dollar Index-DXY is likely to continue the familiar range of 101-105. The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30 As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70. At least for now the zone is protected The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogAs noted in the previous blogs the supply improved closer to 83 mark and the pair saw an unexpected deeper correction after 4-5 weeks of continuous buying interest. Also that the target of 81.80 achieved and even the pair has seen even lower levels. Now the question is on what next and where from here. Since the [pair has closed below the critical 81.80 levels, the next crucial level to look for would be 81.25. We may see a pullback if we do not see a daily close below 81.20. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 80.90 and 82.20. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. If the momentum continues we may see the pair drifting towards 79.90. A few more observations: The currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83 Dollar Index-DXY is likely to continue the familiar range of 101-105. However, there may not be major impact seen on the pre-existing range The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30 As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another out of spike towards 85.70. At least for now the zone is protected The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogFor the fifth consecutive week the pair saw constant buying interest and posted a green candle. However, the size of the move is narrowing viz. between 82.56 & 83.02. From Oct 2022 we have seen this as the third attempt to cross 83 mark. The question is whether it will breach this time. While we may expect the supply to improve closer to 83 mark, we cannot rule out the chances of one spike to 83.50-83.70 and then cool-off. Alternatively, if the 83 holds for a couple of weeks more we may see the reversal towards 81.80. Till we see a daily close below 81.80, we can assume that the pair would continue the consolidation phase between 81.80 and 83.30. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 81.60 and 83.20. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: The currency is attempting the top of long term trend line Dollar Index-DXY is likely to break the familiar range of 101-105. However, there may not be major impact seen on the pre-existing range The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30 As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference. The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. It is a million-dollar question whether this zone will be breached. If breached, we may see another out of spike towards 85.70 Candle formation does not indicate immediate risk. Yet the impact on businesses would be immense if it does happen The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF
Ascending triangle breakout in USDINRA chart says more than a thousand words! As the technical analysis suggests, The #usdinr is once again all set to give a bullish breakout of an ascending triangle pattern. Here are three fundamental reasons that can also support this breakout. - Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, The US core PCE price index has increased by 4.7% annually, beyond market estimates of 4.3% and rising from December's rate of 4.6%. - FOMC minutes signal that policymakers will increase interest rates and keep them higher for longer to tame unsustainable price growth. - A fall in the Indian foreign exchange reserve from 575.27 billion to 561.27 billion this month and rising US bond yields will also strengthen the dollar against the Indian rupee. Note: This post is only for educational purposes. Trade at your own risk. #forex #usdinr #trading #technicalanalysis #federalreserve #newsupdate #interestrates #inflation
Long
by gauravrathore1786
USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogFor the fourth consecutive week the pair saw constant buying interest and posted higher highs and higher lows. However, the size of the move is narrowing viz. between 82.49 & 82.99. From Oct 2022 we have seen this as the third attempt to cross 83 mark. The question is whether it will breach this time. While we may expect the supply to improve closer to 83 mark, we cannot rule out the chances of one spike to 83.50-83.70 and then cool-off. Alternatively, if the 83 holds for a couple of sessions more we may see the reversal towards 81.80. Till we see a daily close below 81.80, we can assume that the pair would continue the consolidation phase between 81.80 and 83.00. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 81.80 and 82.80. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. A few more observations: The currency is attempting the top of long term trend line Presently the correlation between DXY and USDINR is not active and the Dollar Index-DXY is likely to hover in the familiar range of 101-105 The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-83.10 The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. It is a million-dollar question whether this zone will be breached. If breached, we may see another out of spike towards 85.70 Candle formation does not indicate immediate risk. Yet the impact on businesses would be immense if it does happen The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
by SYFXTF