Is the bear market bounce in the AUDJPY over? 16 Risk Reward!Hello!
Here is my fundamental case to be short AUDJPY
1) Strengthening economy in Japan
- Is Japan finally out of its 30 year lul?
2) Weakening Economy in Australia
- Are interest rates finally starting to effect the economy?
3) Extreme household debt in Australia due to the extreme property hype cycle (People say its because of immigration, I think this is just a narrative... I remember when Hong Kong 'didn't have enough space') Australia hast had its 2008 moment yet,
4) Debt is on govt balance sheet in Japan already... Australia will probably join the govt debt club once they have their property cycle FINITO.
Here is my technical case to be short AUDJPY
1) We have rallied to the 61% Fibonacci of the first impulse down.
2) The 'False breakout' at 102ish gives us a good level to know we are wrong. This helps to provide a RIDICULOUS risk reward of 16:1.
Thanks
Kavi
JPYAUD trade ideas
Trading Plan: AUD/JPY Monthly Sell Opportunity
### **Trading Plan: AUD/JPY Monthly Sell Opportunity**
#### **1. Market Analysis**
- **Timeframe:** Monthly
- **Trend Direction:** Analyze the previous 12-24 months' candles to determine the dominant trend.
- **Key Levels:**
- Last Month's High (LMH)
- Last Month's Low (LML)
#### **2. Identify Key Levels and Defense Zone**
- **Last Month’s High:** Mark the high of the previous monthly candle on the chart.
- **Fibonacci Vibration Grid (FVG):**
- Use the Fibonacci retracement tool from the recent swing low to swing high or vice versa to plot the FVG levels.
- Look for overlapping FVG zones above the last month’s high.
- **Defense Zone:**
- This is a resistance area formed by overlapping FVG levels and key price action zones.
- Ensure the defense zone aligns with institutional order blocks or liquidity voids.
#### **3. Entry Conditions**
- **Sell Trigger:**
- Price must enter the area above last month’s high and into the identified defense zone.
- Confirmation via bearish price action patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing, pin bar, or inside bar formations).
- Look for rejection or significant wick formations in the defense zone.
#### **4. Risk Management**
- **Stop Loss (SL):**
- Place the SL slightly above the defense zone or the nearest swing high.
- **Take Profit (TP):**
- Set TP levels using:
- Last Month’s Low (LML) as the primary target.
- Extend TP to key support zones below LML if momentum supports further downside.
- **Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):**
- Maintain a minimum RRR of 1:3.
#### **5. Additional Confluences**
- **Last Line of Defense (LLD):**
- Identify the LLD as the highest resistance point above the LMH where price may reverse.
- Ensure it coincides with the FVG overlap and an institutional order block.
- **Volume Analysis:**
- Use the Volume Profile or On-Balance Volume (OBV) to assess institutional activity in the sell zone.
- **Indicators (Optional):**
- RSI divergence: Look for bearish divergence when price approaches the defense zone.
- Moving Averages: Check for alignment with the bearish trend.
#### **6. Execution Plan**
- Wait for price to approach and react within the defense zone.
- Observe confirmation on lower timeframes (e.g., daily or 4H) for better precision in entries.
- Scale into the position if the market provides multiple rejection points within the zone.
#### **7. Monitoring and Adjustments**
- Reassess the trade if price closes above the defense zone on the monthly timeframe.
- Trail the stop loss using key resistance levels or moving averages if the trade moves significantly in your favor.
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AUDJPY - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D and 1W key liquidity level and left untouched level lower, this indicates on probable distribution Wyckoff range.
But to take more statistically probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and in this case we can notice sign of weakness (reaching the middle of the range), so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower.
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
AUDJPY: Bullish Continuation is Highly Probable! Here is Why:
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to buy AUDJPY.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
AUD/JPY Trendline Breakout Play!Hey traders, I’m sharing a live trade I’ve just entered on the AUD/JPY pair. Let’s dive into the details, step by step, so you can see exactly why I took this trade and how I’m managing it. 🔥
First, take a look at this beautiful uptrend line I’ve drawn. The price has been respecting this line perfectly, forming higher highs and higher lows, which shows us that the bulls are still in control. 🐂
Right now, the price has bounced off this trendline, and that’s where I entered Long at 98.448.
Why did I take this trade?
1️⃣ Trendline Support: The price bounced from a key support zone.
2️⃣ RSI Confirmation: The RSI is above 50, showing bullish momentum.
3️⃣ Clear Risk/Reward: This setup offers a solid risk-to-reward ratio, which is always part of my trading plan.
Here’s the full breakdown:
Entry Point: 98.448
Stop-Loss (SL): 97.976 (just below the trendline and the last swing low).
Take Profit (TP): 98.870 (a key resistance zone and a logical target for this move).
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: ~1:2
If the price hits my TP, it’s a solid win! If it hits my SL, I’ve kept the loss manageable, as always. 💼
So now it’s a waiting game, but I’m confident in this setup. What do you think? Will the price reach my target? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below, and don’t forget to like and subscribe for more live trades and market insights! 🙌
Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you can lose more than your initial investment. Always do your own research and consult a professional before trading.
AUD/JPY LongMarket Analysis:
Asset: AUD/JPY
Timeframe: 1-Hour
Bullish Divergence: Observed on the 1-hour RSI, indicating a potential reversal.
Trendline Breakout: Price is testing a downward trendline, hinting at a possible breakout to the upside.
4-Hour Trend: Confirmed bullish trend, providing higher timeframe confluence for the long setup.
Trade Setup:
Entry Point:
Enter a buy position on the breakout and close above the trendline with confirmation.
Stop-Loss:
Place the stop-loss below the recent swing low or key support zone around 97.50.
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 98.98 (prior resistance zone).
TP2: 99.55 (further resistance and psychological level).
Risk Management:
Position Size: Use proper risk management, risking no more than 1-2% of your trading capital.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for at least a 1:2 R/R ratio for this setup.
Additional Confirmation:
Volume Analysis: Look for an increase in buying volume during the breakout.
RSI: Ensure RSI remains above 50 to confirm bullish momentum.
PA #4 : audjpy sell 09/01/24Date: Thursday 09/01/2025
Post Analysis:
Number of trades: 1 trade
Daily Profit: -0.1%
Objective: Phase 1 +10%
Account Balance : -4.27%
Next Logical step: Get to 10 trades;
1/ What I did right:
I Spent 1 hour maximum to research the best pair to trade.
I identified the Activity/demand: AUD: Strong move that broke previous day high and backed by fundamental news.
Pair Selection: Aud WEAK and JPY strong - > We are looking to sell the aud.
Beating perfectionism: I took one trade, with 0.1% risk to come back and get used to taking trades.
2/ What I did wrong:
Tight stop loss
Didn’t see the channel pattern taking place.
3/ What I am going to change:
I don’t know yet! Hesitatnig between changing the stop loss or not, so I will leave it like this
AUDJPY Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear friends,
AUDJPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 98.841 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 98.129
Recommended Stop Loss - 99.245
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AUD/JPY (15-Minute Chart)Anticipating price retracement to mitigate the DEC OB or SMT zone, followed by bearish continuation targeting lower lows. Extreme OB serves as an alternative rejection area.
Use proper risk management when trading these zones.
#AUDJPY #SmartMoneyConcepts #SMC #OrderBlocks #PriceAction
AUDJPY💡The chart shows technical analysis of the AUD/JPY currency pair on the daily time frame (D1). The price made a strong downward movement (Bearish Impulse) and broke a recent structural level. The analysis indicates a bearish scenario with the search for an entry point after the correction is completed and the downward movement continues. MACD reflects the decline of bullish momentum and the beginning of bearish momentum.
⛔️It is not investment advice for educational purposes only.
SSL sweep on AUDJPYAs you see on Audjpy, the price already reached SSL and demand zone on timeframe H1. Switch to a lower timeframe, I saw Sell side liquidity sweep (SSL) on timeframe M15 and make a market structure shift. I'm planning to take a long position at the BB+OB zone and target the nearest BSL for the take profit. That’s all and good luck!
Analyzing AUDJPY Breakout: A Bullish Opportunity The forex pair AUDJPY is currently trading at 99.000, with a target price set at 100.000. This suggests an anticipated price movement of 100 pips, signaling a potential gain if the trade goes as planned. The price action indicates an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish continuation pattern often associated with upward price momentum. A breakout above the triangle's resistance level has already occurred, confirming the bullish bias. This breakout implies that buyers are in control, increasing the likelihood of reaching the target. The ascending triangle reflects higher lows, showing consistent buying pressure. Traders often view this as a strong technical indicator for upward movement. Risk management is crucial, as market conditions can shift unexpectedly. Monitoring the pair's price action and related economic events is essential. The breakout provides a clear trading opportunity aligned with technical analysis.
Bullish Outlook for AUDJPY: Targeting 98.98 with a Strong Buy SToday, I want to share my bullish analysis on the AUDJPY currency pair. The current market conditions and signals point towards a promising upward trajectory, making this a compelling buy opportunity.
At the moment, I recommend entering a buy position at 98.327. This recommendation is grounded in a blend of technical and fundamental analysis, particularly in line with the principles of the EASY Trading AI strategy, which emphasizes recognizing market patterns and trends. The indicators show strong potential for price appreciation, suggesting that the pair could reach the take profit level of 98.98.
To manage risk effectively, I advocate setting a stop loss at 97.592. This strategic placement allows for a balanced risk-reward ratio while protecting against unexpected market reversals. With the strong long trades percentage noted in recent performance data, it becomes clear that maintaining a bullish stance could lead to favorable outcomes.
In conclusion, for traders looking to engage with AUDJPY, this buy position presents a calculated and informed opportunity to capitalize on potential upward movement in the coming sessions. Happy trading!