CAD/JPY: Price at Decision Point – Key Support in PlayWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** CADJPY Analysis !
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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JPYCAD trade ideas
CADJPY RALLIED IN THE WAKE OF STEADY RATE BY BOJEarlier today, May 1st, The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its interest rates at 0.5%, with a dovish outlook, including trimmed growth and inflation forecasts.
This stance suggests a lower likelihood of near-term rate hikes, this priced in a weaker Yen and hence the Yen lagged across board.
The Canadian Dollar on the other hand being strengthened by the recent rebounds in oil prices took advantage of that, hence the surge in CADJPY.
TECHNICAL VIEW
From technical perspective, prices were supported at 104.35 after it broke out of a major psychological barrier level of 104. Price rallied to the strong supply zone of 105 and currently hovering around 105.06.
From technical lenses, the oscillators: RSI and Stochastic are over stretched hinting signs of possible pullback as they have gone above over bought levels and created bearish divergence: price is forming Higher High and both indicators are possibly forming Lower High simultaneously.
Other things being equal, analysts likely predict price to drop with potential target around 104.35 and if that is taken out, the next potential targets would be 104 and 103. On the other hand, if the bullish momentum is sustained, a break above 105.39 would usher in 106 psychological level. Breakouts of these levels are not ruled out as per analysts.
CADJPY Wave Analysis – 1 May 2025- CADJPY broke the resistance zone
- Likely to rise to resistance level 106.00
CADJPY currency pair recently broke the resistance zone between the resistance level 104.00 and the resistance trendline of the Descending Triangle from February.
The breakout of this resistance zone continues the earlier sharp upward correction from the major long-term support level 102.00, which has been reversing the price from August.
CADJPY can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 106.00 (top of the previous minor correction 2 from March).
CADJPY Technical & Order Flow Analysis (Swing Trading)Our analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis.
Based on our view, the price will rise to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you.
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CAD/JPY Rally Could Fade Near Resistance – Watch for ShortsThe CAD/JPY pair is currently trading within a well-defined descending trendline. Multiple rejections are visible around the 108.300, 105.864, 105.434, and 105.044 levels, confirming strong bearish control over the medium term.
Price has recently bounced from a critical horizontal support near 101.246, forming a short-term bullish move toward the descending trendline. We are now approaching a confluence zone near the 103.800–104.000 area, where the downtrend line intersects. This zone is a potential supply area and could act as a strong resistance.
Trade Idea: Sell Setup Near Trendline (103.800–104.000)
Target: 102.532, 101.250
Invalidation: Break and close above 104.200
CAD/JPY 4-Hour Short – Fibonacci RetracementWe’re fading the recent CAD/JPY rally with a sell-limit at the 38.2% retracement (≈103.60), anticipating a continuation of the larger down-impulse.
• Entry: 103.597 (Sell Limit at 38.2% fib)
• Stop Loss: 103.982 (just above 23.6% fib) → 37.5 pips / 0.36% risk → $2.70 at 0.01 lots
• Take Profit: 102.514 (78.6% extension) → 109.3 pips / 1.05% reward → $7.58 at 0.01 lots
• Risk-Reward: ≈1:2.9
The custom RSI (with its configurable moving average) is turning lower below 60, aligning momentum with a bearish bias. Position sizing is handled by the “Sniper Lot Size Calculator” to cap risk at 1% per trade. This clean, macro-to-micro approach keeps us surgical—waiting for the pullback, then striking with precision.
CADJPY BIAS!!On the MONTHLY TIMEFRAME, We spotted a strong resistance currently acting as support of which price has reacted to in the past months by forming a strong wick rejection monthly candles right at the zone however we want to sit back and wait for this monthly candle close to give us a good rejection price action candle right at the zone before we can look at the weekly timeframe to establish a possible bullish bias and of course an entry long
CAD/JPY Short SetupTechnical Analysis: CAD/JPY has surged to a resistance level around 107.75, which previously acted as a significant barrier. The pair is exhibiting signs of overbought conditions, and a pullback towards 105.50 is plausible. 
• Fundamental Factors: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to announce a rate hike soon, with markets already pricing in two 25bps increases by the end of 2025. This anticipation strengthens the JPY, potentially leading to a decline in CAD/JPY. 
• Market Sentiment: Recent statements from the U.S. administration suggest plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. This development could pressure the CAD, particularly against the JPY, as investors seek safe-haven assets. 
USD/JPY Trade Recap, AUD/JPY Long, AUD/USD Short & CAD/JPY ShortAUD/JPY Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse up above area of interest.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
AUD/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If tight non-structured 1H continuation forms, 15 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 15 min chart.
• If tight structured 1H continuation follows, 1H risk entry within it.
CAD/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it.
CADJPYThis is what I would consider a "B" setup for myself. Second time this year I'm going for it. Although we are near a strong support level, I would like to see if price could retest the previous support range (color box on chart). Although price has been falling with the bearish activity simmering down a bit, maybe we have bears in the market that haven't fully closed and are still testing the lows before a true move up. Looking for a small target range as listed on the chart.
Longs ContinuationLooking to Hold this Trade for a continuation move.
The Canadian dollar shows strength against the Japanese yen, supported by stable oil prices and a firm Canadian economy.
The Japanese yen's weakness, amid decreasing safe-haven demand, further supports a bullish outlook for this pair.
Update on CADJPY set up.On my last post on CADJPY i had it dropping to 100. - 90. Levels, i still believe price is Bearish overall, been holding this trade for a while, im still holding even do price is already giving me signs of a possible reversal on the 102. Level, but i need more confluences, price did hit my Tp1 at the Market Low ( 101.500 ) if price starts breaking the 104. Level then most likely ill change my bias and give my analysis for a possible next move. Right now, im just holding all the pairs I've posted.