JPYEUR trade ideas
EURJPY: Bearish Continuation
Balance of buyers and sellers on the EURJPY pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the sellers, therefore is it only natural that we go short on the pair.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
EURJPY suggests a potential bearish moveEURJPY suggests a potential bearish move.
The price has been moving within an ascending channel
A downward-sloping trend line indicates a possible break below the channel.
If the price continues to drop, it may reach 163.300 ,162.500 and 162, which are marked as support levels.
The BOJ is probably doing intervention again in the forex market given that the they want to reach a deal soon with the US
On the other hand EURO has other problems. The inflation cooling down is suggesting further rate cuts and this can weigh on EURO pairs in the short term.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
CURRENT OUTLOOK FOR EURJPY
The pair is in an uptrend, having successfully broken through the daily trend line and completed a retest. I'm anticipating a second retest around the 162.450 level, which could form a double bottom 'W' pattern. If this pattern confirms, our target would be 165.205, with a stop loss set around 162.034 to manage risk.
SMC Trap = Clean CHoCH + OB Long, Targeting Liquidity Sweep!We’re tracking a textbook Smart Money Concept (SMC) long setup on EURJPY, 30M timeframe, with clear structure shift and clean OB entry. Here's the full breakdown for traders:
🔄 Market Structure Shift:
Major bearish trend visible from previous candles.
Sharp rejection followed by a Change of Character (CHoCH) indicating possible bullish reversal.
🧱 Order Block Zone:
Price swept liquidity to the downside and tapped into a marked Bullish Order Block at 162.195–162.266.
Entry triggered within this OB zone, with tight risk placement below Strong Low.
🔁 Entry Setup:
Entry: Inside OB at 162.266
Stop Loss: Just below the OB at 162.195 (Strong Low protected)
TP1: 70.50% retracement near 162.650
TP2: Full Buy Side Liquidity sweep @ 162.768 (Weak High Targeted)
🧮 RRR (Risk-to-Reward):
Approximate RRR: 1:6+ — High probability trade if market structure follows through.
🧲 Key Levels Highlighted:
🔹 CHoCH confirms shift to bullish
🔹 OB Zone: High confluence with liquidity grab + candle imbalance
🔹 Buy Side Liquidity: Obvious target for institutions
🔹 Weak High: Ready to be taken out
📈 What To Watch For:
Bullish continuation towards 162.768
Strong impulsive move breaking above minor resistance
Potential re-entries on lower TF OBs (5M–15M)
🧠 Pro Tip for Traders:
Don’t chase—wait for CHoCH + OB confirmation combo. This type of setup works best when confluence aligns: OB + CHoCH + liquidity sweep = 🔥
EUR/JPY "Yuppy" Heist: Sniping Swiss Profits with Thief Trading!🌍 Hello Global Traders! 🌟
Money Makers, Risk Takers, and Market Shakers! 🤑💸✈️
Dive into our EUR/JPY "Yuppy" Forex heist, crafted with the signature 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥, blending sharp technicals and deep fundamentals. Follow the strategy outlined in the TradingView chart, focusing on a long entry targeting the high-risk MA Zone. Expect a wild ride with overbought conditions, consolidation, and potential trend reversals where bearish players lurk. 🏆💰 Celebrate your wins, traders—you’ve earned it! 💪🎉
Entry 📈: The vault’s open! Grab bullish opportunities at any price, but for precision, set buy limit orders on a 15 or 30-minute timeframe near swing lows or highs for pullback entries.
Stop Loss 🛑:
📍 Place your Thief SL at the recent swing low on the 4H timeframe (163.00) for scalping or day trades.
📍 Adjust SL based on your risk tolerance, lot size, and number of open orders.
Target 🎯: Aim for 167.00
💵 EUR/JPY "Yuppy" is riding a bullish wave, fueled by key market drivers. ☝
Unlock the full picture—dive into Fundamentals, Macro Insights, COT Reports, Quantitative Analysis, Sentiment Outlook, Intermarket Trends, and Future Targets. Check 👉🌎🔗.
⚠️ Trading Alert: News & Position Management 📰🚨
News can shake the market hard. Protect your trades by:
Avoiding new entries during news releases.
Using trailing stops to lock in profits and shield running positions.
📌 Markets move fast—stay sharp, keep learning, and adapt your strategy as conditions evolve.
💖 Power up our heist! 🚀 Tap the Boost Button to amplify our Thief Trading Style and make stealing profits a breeze. Join our crew, grow stronger, and conquer the markets daily with ease. 🏆🤝❤️
Catch you at the next heist, traders—stay ready! 🤑🐱👤🤩
EURJPYEUR/JPY Interest Rate Differential and Yield Curve Analysis (May–June 2025)
Interest Rate Differential
European Central Bank (ECB):
Deposit rate: 2.25% (cut by 25 bps in April 2025).
Outlook: Markets expect two more cuts in 2025, potentially lowering rates to 1.75% by year-end due to subdued inflation (2.3% YoY) and tariff risks.
Bank of Japan (BoJ):
Policy rate: 0.50% (unchanged in May 2025, highest since 2008).
Outlook: Dovish stance persists despite trimming 2025 GDP growth to 0.5%; further hikes unlikely until 2026 amid U.S. tariff pressures.
Differential: ~1.75% in favor of EUR, though ECB easing may narrow this gap.
Yield Curve Dynamics
Eurozone 10-Year Bond Yield: 3.14% (May 15, 2025), above the long-term average of 2.47% but down from recent peaks.
Japan 10-Year Bond Yield: 1.52% (May 20, 2025), reflecting BoJ’s ultra-loose policy and weak growth.
Yield Spread: 1.62% (Eurozone vs. Japan), down from earlier highs as ECB cuts loom.
Key Drivers
ECB Policy and Growth:
Eurozone Q1 GDP grew 0.3% QoQ, outperforming expectations, but U.S. tariffs (20% on EU exports starting July) threaten future growth.
ECB’s dovish pivot contrasts with BoJ’s passive stance, narrowing the rate differential.
BoJ’s Quantitative Tightening:
Reduced bond purchases (cut to ¥425 billion in May) signal tentative policy tightening, temporarily supporting JPY.
Japan’s Q1 GDP contracted -0.7% annualized, driven by weak exports and stagnant consumption.
Bond Yield Shrinkage:
The 2-year yield spread between German Bunds and Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) has narrowed, reducing EUR’s appeal.
Technical analysis suggests a potential bearish reversal for EUR/JPY, with a break below 155.45 triggering a multi-month downtrend.
Directional Bias
Near-Term: Neutral-to-Bearish
ECB rate cuts and yield spread shrinkage offset EUR’s yield advantage.
JPY gains limited by BoJ’s delayed hikes and weak growth, but reduced QE provides temporary support.
Medium-Term: Bearish Risks
Escalating U.S.-EU/Japan trade tensions may amplify safe-haven JPY demand.
Summary Table
Factor EUR Impact JPY Impact EUR/JPY Bias
ECB Rate Cuts Weakens EUR – Bearish
BoJ Dovish Hold – Weakens JPY Bullish
Eurozone Growth (0.3%) Mild support – Neutral
Japan’s GDP Contraction – Pressures JPY Bullish
Yield Spread Shrinkage Reduces EUR appeal Boosts JPY attractiveness Bearish
Conclusion:
EUR/JPY faces increasing bearish pressure from narrowing rate differentials, yield curve dynamics, and technical breakdown risks. While the ECB’s higher rates and Eurozone growth resilience provide near-term support, medium-term headwinds from ECB easing and JPY strength dominate the outlook. Traders should monitor ECB communications (June 19) and BoJ policy signals for shifts in momentum.
#ECB#EURJPY #FOREX
TEXT BOOK LTF PA EURJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W21 D22 Y25TEXT BOOK LTF PA EURJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W21 D22 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly 50 EMA
✅Daily 50 EMA
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
✅Intraday 15' order block
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Chanel(EUR/JPY 1H Chart):
1. Previous Uptrend (Left Side):
The price was previously moving within a well-defined ascending channel (marked by white parallel lines).
Eventually, the price broke below the ascending channel, signaling a potential trend reversal.
2. Downtrend Phase (Middle Section):
After breaking out of the bullish channel, the price entered a descending channel.
A short position was executed here, with a visible stop-loss (red zone) and take-profit (green zone).
This short trade was successful — the price reached the take-profit level.
📌 Current Market Setup (Right Side):
3. Breakout from the Downward Channel:
The price has broken out of the descending channel to the upside.
This breakout may indicate the start of a new bullish wave.
4. Anticipated Pullback:
A pullback is expected toward a nearby demand zone (highlighted with a yellow rectangle).
After the pullback, a continuation to the upside is projected — reflected by a long position with a large risk-to-reward ratio (roughly 1:3 or higher).
📈 Pattern and Scenario:
A trend reversal pattern is forming following the breakout from the descending structure.
The projected structure follows the pattern: Impulse – Pullback – Impulse.
This is a classic bullish continuation setup.
🧠 Conclusion:
Pattern: Reversal and bullish continuation.
Bias: Bullish, especially after confirmation of the demand zone.
Strategy: Wait for a retest of the demand zone for a safer long entry. An aggressive entry could be made on breakout confirmation.