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EURJPY - Look for Short (SWING) 1:XX!It’s been a while since I last shared a trading idea — here’s one for you. EURJPY has spent the past few weeks in an accumulation phase and now looks poised to shift into a distribution phase to the downside. Let’s see how it unfolds. Disclaimer: This is simply my personal technical analysis, and you're free to consider it as a reference or disregard it. No obligation! Emphasizing the importance of proper risk management—it can make a significant difference. Wishing you a successful and happy trading experience!
Short
by S-Fx_
EUR/JPY 1H: Bullish Falling Wedge Breakout + Target 🧠 Overview of the Setup The EUR/JPY currency pair has recently completed a Falling Wedge pattern, a classic and powerful bullish reversal formation. This chart structure typically signals the end of a downtrend and the potential beginning of a strong upward impulse. In this setup, multiple confluences point toward a bullish move, including pattern breakout, structure shift, retest of a dynamic support level, and alignment with major supply/resistance zones. 🔍 Pattern Analysis: Falling Wedge Definition: A falling wedge is a technical pattern formed by two downward-sloping trendlines — one representing resistance and the other support — that converge. It signals a slowdown in bearish momentum, often preceding a bullish reversal. Chart Observation: The wedge is well-defined, spanning several trading sessions. As price action tightened toward the apex, bearish momentum began to weaken. Breakout Trigger: Price broke convincingly above the upper wedge boundary, suggesting the start of a bullish reversal. ✅ Implication: The breakout confirms that buyers have taken control, especially as this move is supported by a structural Change of Character (CHOCH). 📈 Price Action Structure & Key Zones 1. Minor Resistance (Broken) After the breakout, price encountered a minor resistance zone just above the wedge. This area is now likely to flip into support (a classic breakout retest). 2. Major CHOCH (Change of Character) A CHOCH indicates a break in market structure — from lower highs and lower lows to higher highs and higher lows. The break above this level confirms a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. 3. Curved Support (Black Min Curve) A rising curved trendline has formed below current price, acting as a parabolic support structure. This suggests not just a trend reversal, but increasing bullish momentum, as buyers step in at higher levels with each correction. 4. Major Resistance Zone (Target Area) Price Target: ~164.50 – 165.50 This zone has historically acted as strong supply and is marked for potential take-profit or observation for reversal signals. The target is derived from both horizontal resistance and the projected height of the wedge pattern. 🎯 Trading Strategy Component Details Entry Zone 162.50 – 162.60 (retest of minor resistance + curve support) Stop Loss Below 162.00 (beneath wedge and curve) Take Profit 164.50 – 165.50 (major resistance) Risk/Reward Approx. 1:2.5 to 1:3 🔸 Conservative Entry: Wait for bullish confirmation (bullish engulfing candle or pin bar) on the support retest. 🔸 Aggressive Entry: Market buy after confirmation of curve bounce or on lower timeframe bullish signals. 📊 Volume & Momentum Consideration Although volume isn’t shown on this chart, volume confirmation on the breakout would significantly strengthen the bullish bias. Look for: Increasing buy volume on breakout Lower sell volume on pullbacks Bullish divergence (if using RSI or MACD) ⚠️ Risk Management & Event Awareness Be cautious of unexpected JPY-related economic releases (e.g., BOJ announcements, inflation data) that may cause volatility. If the curved support is broken decisively, this could invalidate the setup, suggesting further consolidation or downside risk. 🧠 Psychological Perspective The Falling Wedge reflects a market where sellers are gradually losing control — pushing price lower, but with less conviction. As the wedge tightens, bulls prepare to step in. The breakout confirms that sentiment has shifted, and many traders use such setups as entry points for swing or momentum trades. The curved support line suggests a transition from accumulation to markup phase, which typically leads to faster price expansion as confidence in the uptrend grows. ✅ Summary ✅ Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bullish) ✅ Breakout: Confirmed with CHOCH ✅ Support: Curve trendline acting as dynamic support ✅ Target: 164.50 – 165.50 major resistance ✅ Bias: Bullish (until curve support is broken) 📣 Final Thoughts This is a high-probability bullish continuation setup backed by price structure, pattern breakout, and support alignment. The risk is well-defined, and reward potential is strong — making this a favorable setup for swing traders or short-term position traders. 💬 Let me know what you think in the comments — are you going long EUR/JPY? 👍 Like and Follow for more setups and breakdowns.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
EURJPY - Wave 5 Final Push? Time to Watch for Reversal🌀 EURJPY - Wave 5 Final Push? Time to Watch for Reversal 🚨 (Elliott Wave + AO Divergence + Fib Confluence) 📆 Date: May 19, 2025 📊 Pair: EUR/JPY ⏱️ Timeframe: 1H 🔍 Tools: Elliott Wave, Fibonacci Extension, Awesome Oscillator (AO) 🧠 Technical Breakdown We are currently tracking a textbook Elliott Wave impulsive decline, with price forming a clean 5-wave structure to the downside. The pair now seems to be completing Wave (5) — and several strong signals suggest that a bullish reversal might be imminent. 🔢 Elliott Wave Count ✅ Wave (1) to (4) are already completed. 🔻 Wave (5) has broken below the 2.618 fib extension — which confirms an extended fifth wave. 📉 Current downside target zone lies between the 4.236 – 4.786 extensions: 4.236: ~161.796 4.786: ~161.275 This blue box zone (161.80 – 161.27) is now a high-probability completion area for Wave (5). 📈 Awesome Oscillator (AO) – Bullish Divergence Detected AO shows a clear bullish divergence between Waves (3) and (5). Momentum is fading on the bearish side while price makes a new low — classic signal of potential trend reversal. 🎯 Trade Plan: Wait for Confirmation We’re not jumping in yet — but we’re close. ✅ What to Watch For: Let price reach the 4.236–4.786 fib zone (at minimum 161.796). Wait for a Break of Structure (BoS) — a clear break above a recent lower high (likely Wave 4). On the retest or pullback, look for long entry setups such as: Bullish engulfing candles Pin bar rejection MACD/AO flip Trendline breakout retest 🎯 Targets TP1: 162.80 – 163.50 (previous Wave 4 zone) TP2: 50% – 61.8% retracement of Wave (5) TP3: 164.40 – 165.20 (supply zone and structure confluence) 🛑 Stop Loss Idea Place SL below the 4.786 extension (~161.27) or beneath the new low formed, depending on your entry type (aggressive vs conservative). ⚡ Summary This setup brings multiple confluences together: ✅ Elliott Wave (5-wave completion) ✅ Fibonacci extension target zone ✅ AO bullish divergence ✅ Waiting for structure break for smart entry 💬 Let’s Talk Are you watching this setup too? Drop a 👍 or your analysis below — let’s grow together! ✅ Follow me for more clean setups using Elliott Wave, Divergence, and Price Action. 🔔 Hit the alert — EURJPY is cooking something! #EURJPY #ElliottWave #Forex #AO #BullishDivergence #FibExtension #PriceAction #WaveAnalysis #TradingSetup #ForexSignals
Long
by AwesomeOscDad
EURJPYnterest Rate Differential European Central Bank (ECB): Deposit rate: 2.25% (cut by 25 bps in April 2025). Outlook: Markets expect two more cuts in 2025, potentially lowering rates to 1.75% by year-end, as tariff risks and weak growth persist. Bank of Japan (BoJ): Policy rate: 0.50% (held steady in May). Outlook: BoJ lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% (from 1.0%) due to U.S. tariff risks and weak Q1 data. Rate hikes are unlikely until 2026. Differential: ~1.75% in favor of EUR, though ECB easing may narrow this gap. Key Economic Data for May 2025 Eurozone Q1 GDP Growth (Final): 0.3% QoQ (vs. preliminary 0.4%), marking the fifth straight quarter of growth. Germany (+0.2%), Spain (+0.6%), and Italy (+0.3%) outperformed France (+0.1%). Risks: U.S. tariffs on EU exports (potentially 20% starting July) threaten future growth. ECB Policy Signals: ECB President Lagarde emphasized a data-dependent approach, with further cuts likely if inflation remains subdued. Japan Q1 GDP Contraction: -0.7% annualized (vs. -0.2% expected), driven by weak exports (-5.0%) and stagnant consumption. U.S. tariffs on Japanese autos (24%) and machinery exacerbate recession risks. BoJ Caution: Governor Ueda warned of "downside risks" from trade tensions, signaling no near-term rate hikes despite inflation above target. Directional Bias for EUR/JPY Short-Term (May–June 2025): Bullish EUR/JPY ECB’s higher rates (vs. BoJ’s 0.50%) sustain the euro’s yield advantage. Japan’s weak GDP and tariff vulnerabilities keep JPY under pressure. Medium-Term (H2 2025): Neutral-to-Bearish ECB rate cuts (to 1.75%) could narrow the rate differential, reducing EUR appeal. Safe-haven JPY demand may rise if U.S.-EU/Japan tariff tensions escalate. #SHAVYFXHUB #EURJPY #JAPAN #EUROPE #EURO #yen #fx #forex
by Shavyfxhub
EURJPYInterest Rate Differential European Central Bank (ECB): Deposit rate: 2.25% (cut by 25 bps in April 2025). Outlook: Markets expect two more cuts in 2025, potentially lowering rates to 1.75% by year-end, as tariff risks and weak growth persist. Bank of Japan (BoJ): Policy rate: 0.50% (held steady in May). Outlook: BoJ lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% (from 1.0%) due to U.S. tariff risks and weak Q1 data. Rate hikes are unlikely until 2026. Differential: ~1.75% in favor of EUR, though ECB easing may narrow this gap. Key Economic Data for May 2025 Eurozone Q1 GDP Growth (Final): 0.3% QoQ (vs. preliminary 0.4%), marking the fifth straight quarter of growth. Germany (+0.2%), Spain (+0.6%), and Italy (+0.3%) outperformed France (+0.1%). Risks: U.S. tariffs on EU exports (potentially 20% starting July) threaten future growth. ECB Policy Signals: ECB President Lagarde emphasized a data-dependent approach, with further cuts likely if inflation remains subdued. Japan Q1 GDP Contraction: -0.7% annualized (vs. -0.2% expected), driven by weak exports (-5.0%) and stagnant consumption. U.S. tariffs on Japanese autos (24%) and machinery exacerbate recession risks. BoJ Caution: Governor Ueda warned of "downside risks" from trade tensions, signaling no near-term rate hikes despite inflation above target. Directional Bias for EUR/JPY Short-Term (May–June 2025): Bullish EUR/JPY ECB’s higher rates (vs. BoJ’s 0.50%) sustain the euro’s yield advantage. Japan’s weak GDP and tariff vulnerabilities keep JPY under pressure. Medium-Term (H2 2025): Neutral-to-Bearish ECB rate cuts (to 1.75%) could narrow the rate differential, reducing EUR appeal. Safe-haven JPY demand may rise if U.S.-EU/Japan tariff tensions escalate. #SHAVYFXHUB #EURJPY #JAPAN #EUROPE #EURO #yen #fx #forex
by Shavyfxhub