JPYEUR trade ideas
EURJPY preps for the takeoffEURJPY is testing the area above the massive consolidation pattern. Given the elimination of the risk premium from safe haven demands, Japanese Yen may get under pressure, which may lead to the breakout from the consolidation, as shown at the chart.
Average True Range indicator had reached yet another bottom signaling decreasing volatility: usually this pattern precedes the sharp volatility increase and may point to trend continuation.
Japanese Yen gets under pressure in May, according to historical seasonal studies: thatโs another confirmation of the described scenario.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always make your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
EUR/JPY LONG FROM SUPPORT
Hello, Friends!
EUR/JPY is making a bearish pullback on the 3H TF and is nearing the support line below while we are generally bullish biased on the pair due to our previous 1W candle analysis, thus making a trend-following long a good option for us with the target being the 163.264 level.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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EURJPY Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for EURJPY below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 162.05
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 162.84
Safe Stop Loss - 161.61
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURJPYEUR/JPY Interest Rate Differential, Upcoming Economic Data, and Directional Bias (May 2025)
Interest Rate Differential Overview
Eurozone (ECB):
The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in June 2025, with inflation forecasts lowered (e.g., core CPI forecast for 2026 revised down to 1.7%). This signals a dovish bias and easing monetary policy ahead.
Japan (BoJ):
The Bank of Japan maintains a very low policy rate at 0.5%, with cautious communication about gradual rate hikes. The 10-year JGB yield recently declined to 1.32%, reflecting market skepticism about sustained tightening amid global uncertainties. The BoJ plans up to two more hikes by Q1 2026 but remains sensitive to financial market volatility and yen strength.
Resulting Differential:
The Eurozone currently offers a higher interest rate environment than Japan, but with expected ECB cuts and cautious BoJ tightening, the differential remains wide but may narrow over time. This wide differential has historically supported EUR/JPY strength.
Upcoming Key Economic Data and Events
Date Event Potential Impact on EUR/JPY
May 7, 2025 ECB Meeting (no rate change expected) Market eyes June cut; dovish tone could weaken EUR temporarily.
May 7, 2025 BoJ Policy Statement & Press Conference Watch for guidance on future hikes; dovish signals could weaken JPY further.
May 15, 2025 Eurozone CPI Data (April) Soft inflation supports ECB easing, bearish EUR bias.
May 15, 2025 Japan CPI Data (April) Inflation trends influence BoJ tightening path; lower inflation weakens JPY.
May 30, 2025 Eurozone Economic Sentiment Weak sentiment may pressure EUR.
June 6, 2025 ECB Rate Decision Expected 25bps cut could weaken EUR and EUR/JPY.
Directional Bias and Price Outlook
Current Price: Around ยฅ162.5 (early May 2025).
Short to Medium Term:
EUR/JPY is trending higher due to the wide interest rate differential favoring the euro and ongoing BoJ caution.
Market expects ECB easing and BoJ gradual tightening, which may keep EUR/JPY supported but with volatility around ECB meetings and inflation prints.
Lack of recent Japanese intervention to strengthen the yen has allowed EUR/JPY to drift higher.
Summary Table
Factor Impact on EUR/JPY
Wide Eurozone-Japan rate differential Supports EUR/JPY upside
ECB easing expectations Could pressure EUR short term
BoJ cautious tightening Weakens JPY, supports EUR/JPY
Soft Eurozone inflation data Bearish for EUR, limits gains
Lack of JPY intervention Allows EUR/JPY to trend higher
US-China trade tensions easing Risk-on sentiment supports EUR
Conclusion
EUR/JPYโs near-term strength is primarily driven by a wide interest rate differential favoring the euro, combined with a cautious Bank of Japan and expectations of ECB rate cuts. Upcoming inflation data and central bank meetings are key catalysts that could cause volatility. Traders should watch ECB June decisions and BoJ communications closely, as these will influence the pace of monetary policy divergence and EUR/JPY direction.
EURJPY BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSIS ??EURJPY is currently trading around 162.800 and showing clear bullish momentum after a clean bounce off a strong support zone. Price has been consolidating above a well-established demand area, and today's candle confirms renewed buyer interest. The reaction from this level highlights a potential shift back to the upside, with 169.000 marked as the next significant target. The rejection wicks and structure suggest accumulation, with the market gearing up for a bullish continuation.
From a fundamental perspective, the euro is gaining strength on the back of better-than-expected economic data across the eurozone, while the Japanese yen continues to face broad pressure due to the Bank of Japan's dovish stance. The BOJ remains committed to ultra-loose monetary policy, which puts the yen at a disadvantage against stronger currencies like the euro, especially when inflation expectations in Europe remain sticky.
Technically, EURJPY has respected this support zone multiple times, creating a solid base of demand. Each test has been met with higher lows, reinforcing the bullish bias. The price action is forming a classic support-retest continuation pattern, and if this structure holds, we could see a swift move toward 169.000. Volume and momentum indicators are also beginning to align in favor of the bulls.
Looking forward, as long as price holds above the 162.200 area, the path of least resistance remains upward. Traders will be watching for continuation signals and breakouts of minor resistance zones to confirm the move. This setup offers a favorable risk-reward structure, and with market sentiment tilting toward euro strength, EURJPY has the potential to deliver solid gains in the coming sessions.
EURJPY โ False breakout of strong resistance at 164.FX:EURJPY rallies on news and reaches an important milestone. The liquidity pool formed above 164.00 may prevent the price from rising. There is a high chance of a false breakout.
Against the backdrop of the dollar's growth caused by PMI news, the currency pair is forming a retest of the key resistance level of 164.188 as part of a consolidation distribution and, with no possibility of continuing its growth, is making a false breakout.
Consolidation in the sell zone (below 164.188) will trigger a reversal and a fall.
Overall, the situation is neutral, with the market in a sideways range, and a false breakout could lead to a correction or reversal of the local trend.
Resistance levels: 164.188
Support levels: 163.17, 162.57
The formation of a reversal pattern relative to resistance and price consolidation below the level could give a good signal for a reversal.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Could the price bounce from here?EUR/JPY is reacting offf the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 162.59
1st Support: 161.78
1st Resistance: 163.62
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