GBP/JPY - Triangle Breakout (12.06.2025)The GBP/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 194.34
2nd Support – 193.76
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JPYGBP trade ideas
GBPJPY at a Turning Point: Triple Top Signals Potential DeclineGBPJPY at a Turning Point: Triple Top Signals Potential Decline
Fundamental Analysis:
GBP is showing signs of weakness against the Japanese Yen following the latest UK employment data. The UK unemployment rate rose to 4.6% for the three months ending in April, while the Claimant Count Change increased by 33.1K in May.
Meanwhile, hawkish expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continue to strengthen the Japanese Yen.
Technical Analysis:
GBPJPY has encountered strong resistance near the recent highs for the third time, increasing the likelihood of a decline, as seen on the chart. The price action suggests the formation of a triple top pattern, which could trigger a deeper drop from this zone.
Targets:
🎯 194.70 🎯 193.60 🎯 192.40
You may find more details in the chart!
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#GBPJPY: 600+ Pips Swing Move, JPY To Drop! GBPJPY has successfully rejected the area previously identified in our analysis of GJ. We had anticipated a price rejection and reversal with a strong bullish impulse, which has materialised. Following the positive candle close on Friday, we anticipate a continuation of the bullish trend and potential reaching of the 200 mark.
When trading, it is crucial to prioritise risk management. Conduct your own analysis and utilise this information solely for educational purposes.
Three potential targets have been identified: 198, 200, and 202. A stop loss can be positioned below our buying zone, as indicated by the black-marked zone.
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OANDA: GBPJPY Sell SetupBased on current price action, the market has approached a key resistance level, forming equal highs—a potential signal of liquidity buildup. Subsequently, a bearish rejection has emerged, suggesting a possible reversal to the downside. As history often repeats itself, there's a strong probability that price may decline again following this structure.
Trade Setup (Risk Parameters):
Entry: 195.453
Stop Loss: 195.807
Target Levels:
Take Profit 1: 194.774
Take Profit 2: 194.253
Take Profit 3: 193.305
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GBPJPY At the Top? Massive Liquidity Grab📈 1. Price Action & Key Technical Levels (Daily Chart)
Price reached a major supply zone between 196.0 and 197.0, showing clear rejection (weekly pin bar and a lower high structure relative to the previous peak).
The long-term descending trendline acted as resistance again.
A confirmed rising wedge pattern broke to the downside, with first target around 191.4, and extended target near 187.4 (key demand zone with historical confluence).
Weekly RSI shows a bearish divergence vs price highs – an additional signal of bullish exhaustion.
📊 2. COT Data (as of June 3, 2025)
GBP (British Pound)
Net long positions increased by +30,371 contracts (Commercial + Non-Commercial).
Non-Commercials: 103,672 long vs 68,457 short → net long +35,215 but the increase is relatively modest.
Commercials are increasing both long and short positions, but the net delta supports medium-term GBP resilience.
JPY (Japanese Yen)
Net short worsened by -13,566 contracts.
Non-Commercials are cutting longs and adding shorts → aggressive yen selling.
Commercials remain heavily short (275,659 vs 100,151 long).
➡️ COT Conclusion: GBP remains structurally strong, but the JPY is now extremely oversold, increasing the likelihood of a technical correction in favor of JPY (GBPJPY pullback).
📉 3. Retail Sentiment
72% of retail traders are short GBPJPY, with an average entry at 191.2.
Current price is above 195.8 → a liquidity sweep above retail shorts may have already occurred.
The order book shows a heavy sell cluster between 195.0–195.9 → potential zone of manipulation/liquidation.
➡️ Contrarian view: After sweeping liquidity above retail highs, we may now see downside pressure to clean out breakout longs.
📅 4. Seasonality
June tends to be neutral to bearish:
5-year average: +0.45% (weak gain)
10- and 15-year averages: -1.24% and -1.30%
Historically, the first 10 days of June often mark a local top, followed by a decline – consistent with the current price structure.
🧠 5. Macro-Technical Confluence
The broader setup points to a distribution phase between 195.5–196.5, with high probability of a technical pullback toward 193.5–191.4 in the short-to-medium term.
The yen's oversold conditions may ease temporarily, supporting a corrective GBPJPY retracement.
Break below 193.5 would confirm the move toward 191.4 and eventually 187.4 – an area of institutional interest.
🔍 Trade Setup Summary (Bias: Bearish)
Technical context: Short setup confirmed by structure break, divergence, and supply rejection.
Macro/sentiment context: Supports a corrective pullback on the pair.
Strategy: Look for intraday weakness below 195.0–194.5 → targeting 193.5, then 191.4.
Invalidation: Daily/weekly close above 197.0.
Lingrid | GBPJPY potential Extension after Bullish BreakoutOANDA:GBPJPY is consolidating just above the key support around 195.05 after bouncing from a higher low and failing to hold the recent breakout above PMH. The bullish structure remains intact within the upward channel, but the pair is currently lacking momentum. If price holds above 195.00 and forms a new bullish wave, a push toward 198.00 remains likely.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: 194.80–195.20
Buy trigger: bullish confirmation above 195.60
Target: 198.00
Sell trigger: break below 194.80 with strong volume
💡 Risks
Failure to hold 195 could shift structure to neutral
Extended range may lead to choppy conditions
Yen strength could trigger sudden reversals from resistance
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GBPUSD reaches resistance zone: Watching for potential reversalOANDA:GBPJPY has reached a pretty significant resistance level, that has been an obvious turning point in the past, with several strong reversals from the area. So naturally, I’m watching to see how price reacts here again.
If we get confirmation of rejection (what I usually watch for: like a bearish engulfing candle, long upper wicks or signs of increased selling pressure), I’ll be looking for short setups from there.
🟥 My sell idea is based on the expectation that this resistance will hold. I would be targeting a move down toward the 192.000 level, which I feel is a realistic and clean target, especially if price respects this structure again.
But if price breaks above and starts holding strong above the zone, then I’ll back off the bearish bias and reassess, and I’d consider the bearish idea invalidated, with potential for further upside 🚀
Just sharing how I see the chart right now, not financial advice 💕✨
DeGRAM | GBPJPY reached the resistance for the third time📊 Technical Analysis
● Price stalled in the 195.5-196.0 red resistance zone and printed a bearish engulfing (labelled “bearish take-over”) after repeatedly failing at the channel roof; the pattern completes a rising-wedge false break.
● Candle has slipped back under the mid-support band 194.0-194.3 and the wedge base; sustained trade below it opens a drop toward 193.50 (prior swing shelf) then 191.80 within the broader channel.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● After May’s weak UK GDP outlook and dovish Bailey remarks, gilts out-performed JGBs for a second week, trimming the yield premium, while risk-off flows ahead of the BoJ meeting add yen demand.
✨ Summary
Short ≤195.5; break beneath 194.0 targets 193.5 → 191.8, stretch 190.4. Short view void on a 4 h close above 196.0.
-------------------
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GBPJPY BUY TRADE PLAN🔥 Pro Trade Plan – GBP/JPY
🗓️ Date: May 15, 2025
🧾 Style: Discretionary | Raw Price Action | Institutional Flow Logic
🧭 Market Narrative & Multi-TF View:
1H: Price coiling tightly under 196.20. Wicks showing absorption near highs. Volatility compression = breakout likely.
4H: Consolidation just below previous supply. Strong demand from 195.00 zone holding firm.
1D: Structural pivot. Buyers showing dominance with higher lows but stuck under ceiling.
Weekly: Mid-structure churn. Trend still bullish-biased, but 196.50–198.00 key resistance area.
🎯 Trade Strategy Breakdown
✅ Primary Trade Idea: Breakout Long (Pending Order)
Type: Intraday to short-term swing
Status: 🟡 Pending Breakout – Not Yet Triggered
Trigger: H1 or H4 candle close above 196.20
Order Type: Pending Buy Stop @ 196.25
Stop Loss: 195.20 (below 4H structure low)
Take Profits:
TP1: 196.80 (gap fill)
TP2: 197.50 (weekly resistance touch)
TP3: 198.20 (extended HTF supply zone)
Confidence: 🔵 80%
Reason: Solid support below, compression pattern, potential for volatility burst.
My Forecast: Breakout likely after compression. I would personally take this setup with tight control on SL if liquidity sweep occurs first.
My Forecast: This is tactical – if no clean breakout, we might trap late buyers, dip back to range low. I would only consider it if I see full rejection confirmation.
🧪 Forecast Summary & Execution Logic
✅ Most likely outcome: Breakout to upside after 196.20 breach
❗ Do not enter early — wait for candle close above 196.20
🧠 I would set a pending buy stop and watch volume at the break
❌ Avoid market buys without structure confirmation
🛠️ Final Execution Checklist:
Criteria Status
Compression below resistance ✅
Institutional liquidity nearby ✅
MTF bias aligned (1H–4H–1D) ✅
Breakout confirmation candle ⏳ Waiting
Volume + PA signal ⏳ Waiting
💬 What I Would Do:
I will only execute the Buy plan if 196.20 breaks with a solid body and confirmation on H1/H4.
I'd place a Buy Stop @ 196.25 with a defined SL.
If price rejects violently with a proper reversal signal, I’ll shift focus to the tactical short plan but with reduced size.
No market orders pre-break — disciplined entry only.
GBPJPY – Golden Pocket Breakout SetupTimeframe: 1H | 🎯 Bias: Bullish Breakout
GBPJPY is testing a key Fibonacci retracement zone (0.5–0.618) from the recent impulse leg (194.00 → 196.195). This golden pocket sits inside strong demand and could launch the next leg higher.
🔍 Technical Confluence
Fib Support Zone: 195.270–195.447 (0.618–0.5)
Price Action: Consolidating near golden pocket, showing rejection wicks
Structure: Higher highs and higher lows intact
RSI: Resetting around 45–50, leaving room for momentum buildup
Next Resistance: 196.200 (previous high), then 197.300 and 198.500
🧠 Fundamental Confluence
GBP Strength Drivers:
BoE's "hawkish cut" tone — restrictive policy to fight sticky inflation
UK macro improving: upcoming GDP & labor data could surprise to the upside
Market pricing less aggressive easing compared to peers = GBP premium
JPY Weakness Factors:
COT RSI at 100% = overbought positioning
BoJ delays normalization to 2027
Risk-on flows (VIX ~16.7) reducing safe-haven demand
Macro Flows: Bullish NASDAQ + stable oil → support GBPJPY upside
Macro Themes:
Oil & NAS100 bullish = supports GBPJPY upside
Market unwinding defensive positions = bullish for GBPJPY
🛠 Trade Plan
📥 Entry Option 1: Buy on bullish reaction from 195.27–195.45 (Fib golden pocket)
📥 Entry Option 2: Break and close above 196.200 (confirmation entry)
🛑 Stop Loss: Below 195.00 (under Fib + recent structure)
🎯 TP1: 196.80
🎯 TP2: 198.00 (measured move)
📌 “Golden pockets don’t lie when fundamentals align.”
GBP-JPY Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-JPY made a retest of
The strong horizontal resistance
Of 196.260 and the pair seems
To be locally overbought
So we will go short with
The Take Profit of 195.525
And the Stop Loss of 196.455
Sell!
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GBPJPY Hello Traders,
There is a potential Buy opportunity on the pair, and I’d like to share it with you.
The setup provides an ideal buying condition, and I’ve configured the trade with a Risk-to-Reward Ratio of 1:2.
According to my personal entry model — which includes three different rating levels (a-b-c) — this setup has received the highest rating, which increases the likelihood of a successful outcome based on historical performance.
🔍 Trade Details
✔️ Timeframe: 15-Minute
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2
✔️ Trade Direction: Buy
✔️ Entry Price: 195.654
✔️ Take Profit: 196.179
✔️ Stop Loss: 195.391
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m simply sharing a trade I’ve taken based on my personal trading system, strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.
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IS IT TIME TO SELL?
"As you can see, we are in a downward trend between two blue lines. Currently, we are at the top of this trend. It seems to be the right time to sell, as the static pink area intersects with the blue trend line. Therefore, it’s time to short. We can expect to reach the first take profit (TP) when we touch the minor uptrend indicated by the purple line."
GBPJPY - Major Resistance Zone Threatens Further UpsideThe GBP/JPY 4-hour chart reveals the pair is approaching a critical resistance zone around the 196.00-196.50 level, marked by the upper boundary of the highlighted rectangular area, which represents a significant technical ceiling that has been tested multiple times over the past month. This resistance level coincides with previous swing highs and appears to be acting as a formidable barrier to further upside progress, suggesting that traders should exercise heightened caution as selling pressure is likely to intensify in this area. The pair's recent rally from the May lows around 190.50 has been impressive, but the multiple rejections from this upper resistance zone indicate that institutional sellers may be positioned to defend these levels aggressively. Given the historical significance of this resistance area and the potential for profit-taking after the substantial advance, market participants should be prepared for increased volatility and possible reversal signals as the pair approaches or tests this key technical barrier, making risk management particularly crucial at current levels.
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GBPJPY Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for GBPJPY.
Time Frame: 15h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 195.681.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 193.757 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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GBPJPY H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 195.46, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fib retracement.
Our take profit will be at 194.57, a pullback support level that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fib retracement.
The stop loss will be placed at 196.44, a swing-high resistance level.
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GBPJPY Eyes Reversal from Resistance – Bears Geting ReadyHey Traders,
OANDA:GBPJPY is currently testing a key resistance zone around 195.75 - 196.35, showing early signs of rejection. The pair recently completed a bullish impulse, but bearish pressure is creeping in as price forms a potential lower high-suggesting a possible shift in structure.
Current Market Conditions:
Price is reacting to a historically significant resistance near 196.35, which has capped previous rallies.
Bearish engulfing candle near this zone signals exhaustion of bullish momentum.
A break below 195.00 would confirm a short-term trend reversal, with room for a deeper pullback.
Next major support lies at 193.51, which aligns with previous demand and consolidation zones.
Fundamental Analysis/Outlook:
Today’s UK labor market data showed slowing wage growth, reducing pressure on the Bank of England to maintain a hawkish stance. Meanwhile, JPY strength is creeping in as market participants remain cautious ahead of upcoming BoJ announcements. This divergence in monetary policy outlooks may fuel further downside in GBPJPY.
Targets:
TP1: 194.79
TP2: 193.51
TP3 (extended): 192.20 (if risk sentiment sharply worsens)
Risk Management:
Stop-Loss: Above 196.35 to invalidate bearish bias.
Maintain proper position sizing.
Wait for confirmation of a lower high or trendline break before aggressive entry.
Technical Outlook:
Potential bearish structure forming.
Resistance held multiple times between 195.75 – 196.35.
Rejection candles and a break of recent support would favor sellers.
Conclusion:
If price confirms rejection at current levels, bears could take control toward 193.50 support. Keep an eye on momentum shifts and key price action signals for confirmation.
Sign-off:
"Markets move on conviction, not hope. Trade what you see, not what you feel."
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GBPJPY follow the ascending channel selling from supply zoneGBPJPY Update – 1H Timeframe
Price is respecting the ascending channel and currently reacting from a key supply zone at 166.100. Sellers are stepping in!
🎯 Technical Targets: 🔻 1st Target: 195.000 – Major Demand Zone
🔻 2nd Target: 193.300 – Bullish Order Block / Demand Zone
Structure still bullish overall, but short-term correction in play.
💡 Smart money eyes the zones — are you ready?
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