GBP/JPY full Elite Validity Check
Current Price (bid/ask) & Spread** | **191.26 / 191.29
Timestamp (EST)** | 2025-04-27 00:42 |
Risk-Level Tag | **Medium** (post-week-end gaps possible) |
Bias Confirmation Checklist** | **HTF trend ✅ • Confluence ✅ • Fundamentals ⚠️** |
Trade-Confidence | **Technical Edge High / Event Risk Low ⇒ Overall High** |
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## 1️⃣ Technical Outlook
* **Weekly & Daily:** clear series of higher highs/lows since March; price holding above 20-DMA (189.90)
* **H4:** bullish channel; last impulsive leg 190.00 → 191.75, minor pullback now testing 190.80 structure support.
* **Structure & Liquidity:** clean OB @ 190.00-190.20; equal-high liquidity pool 192.50-192.70 waiting above.
* **Volume Confirmation:** Friday NY close printed +32 % vs. 20-day H4 average, validating breakout.
3️⃣ Indicators Snapshot
* **RSI (14) H4:** **60.3** — healthy momentum, not overbought
* **MACD D1:** histogram expanding ↑, signal above zero (bullish)
* **ATR (14) H1:** **≈ 30 pips**
* **Tick/Vol:** last breakout candle = +32 % vs. average
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## 4️⃣ Fundamental & Sentiment Radar
| **Upcoming 48 h Events** | *None* for GBP or JPY until BOJ Core CPI (Tue 19:00 EST) – outside 24 h window | **COT Snapshot** | Spec longs in JPY futures remain net-short (-54 k contracts) – weak yen backdrop (
| **Retail Sentiment** | IG sentiment: ~63 % shorts → contrarian bullish bias (page cached) |
| **Risk Mood** | Nikkei 225 up 0.8 % last session; global equity tone supportive of risk-on crosses
| **Dollar Index (DXY)** | Flat at 99.58; neutral spill-over (
| **Currency Strength** | OANDA meter: GBP strong +/ JPY weak - (top-right quadrant) (
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## 5️⃣ Market Drivers & News Black-Out Zones
* **Red-Flag Windows:** BOJ Core CPI Tue 19:00 EST; Fed speakers Wed AM — no new entries inside 6 h.
* **Intervention Risk:** None flagged (MoF silent; ¥150 line well above) (
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## 6️⃣ Trade Considerations (BEES v2)
* **Entry Trigger:** M15 bullish engulf from 190.00-190.20 **with > 20 % vol spike**.
* **Rejection Filters:** avoid round-number chop at 191.00 if Asia stalls; skip if RSI H1 > 75.
## 8️⃣ Execution Checklist
- ☑ HTF trend aligned (W1/D1 up)
- ☑ Trigger vol > 20 %
- ☑ Outside 6 h red-flag window
- ☑ Confidence = **High**
- ☑ Price not inside 50 -pip no-trade zone
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## 9️⃣ Smart Flow & Volatility Map
```mermaid
flowchart LR
Bias(Long) --> Trigger(M15 engulf + vol)
Trigger --> Entry
Entry --> SL & TP
SL & TP --> Manage(Trail after TP1)
Manage --> Exit
```
*Avg pip ranges:* Asia 45 | London 110 | NY 85 — best momentum **03-06 EST**.
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## 🔟 Scenario Planner
| Path | Description | RR |
|---|---|---|
| **A – Clean Move** | London sweep 190 → drive to 192.50 | **1 : 3** |
| **B – Deep Pullback** | Fake-break 189.80 then bounce | 1 : 2 |
| **C – Failure** | H4 close < 189.50 ⇒ flip bias short | -1 R |
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## ✅ Final Recommendation
**Directional Bias:** **Long** GBP / JPY
**Go / No-Go:** **YES** — Score 9 / 10 (meets BEES, fundamentals supportive; event risk low).
**Mindset Reminder:** “Plan the trade, trade the plan — if volume & trigger don’t align, walk away.”
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