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JAPANESE YEN / BRITISH POUND

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JPYGBP trade ideas

GBPJPY BEAR MARKET BEGINS Here’s a polished and professional version of your market update: GBP/JPY Market Update: Key Levels and Macro Context After some time away, we’re back with a critical update. Traders who entered short at 192.5, as we highlighted nearly a week ago, have secured substantial profits. The market has now broken below the ascending parallel weekly channel, which had been respected three times on the weekly timeframe, confirming a clean technical breakdown. Current Outlook & Key Levels • Next Target: 185 region, aligning with daily order block liquidity. • Weekly SMA Analysis: • Price has broken below both the 10 and 50 SMAs, with the 10 SMA now crossing below the 50, signaling weakness on the higher timeframes. • The 100 SMA aligns with the weekly timeframe, acting as a potential support zone. • A break below the 100 SMA could accelerate the selloff towards 181. • Market Structure & Macro Considerations: • No clear upper resistance on the weekly chart, but we do see weekly support at 181. • The BOJ’s tightening policy is strengthening the Yen, adding downward pressure on GBP/JPY. • A break of the daily order block at 190 confirms further bearish momentum. Technical Breakdown – Weekly & Daily Insights • Moving Averages & Trend Analysis: • After nearly two years, the 20 EMA has crossed below the 50 SMA on the weekly timeframe, signaling a potential larger correction. • Ichimoku Cloud: Price is below the cloud, conversion line, and baseline, reinforcing bearish sentiment. • Volume & Momentum Indicators: • Volume Profile: Next high-value node (HVN) at 181, making it a critical level. • RSI (Weekly): 42.02 – Bearish, rejected off its moving average at 194. • MACD: Deep red, confirming momentum to the downside. • ATR: Increased volatility but below its 20 EMA. • OBV: Shows clear signs of volume leaving the market. • ADX: Negative DMI is above positive DMI, ADX at 15.65, indicating a weak bearish trend for now. • Contrarian Put-Call Ratio Analysis: • On January 13th, the ratio was below the lower band, suggesting traders had overloaded on calls, a contrarian signal for a bearish move. Lower Timeframe Market Structure – Daily & 4H • Retracement Levels: • Price has reached the 0.618 retracement level. A key question remains: Will this level provide support, or do we move toward 185? • A break below 169 would invalidate the larger bullish structure since 2023, confirming a longer-term bear market. • Daily Timeframe Insights: • Descending Channel: Price has reacted off the lower boundary. • Bollinger Bands: Price has not entered the upper band since January 8th, indicating sustained weakness. • Key Support Levels: 188.995 has been broken, confirming further downside potential. • Order Blocks: 190.668 bullish order block has been broken, confirming a structural shift toward bearish momentum. Macro & Fundamental Outlook • Yen Strength: Safe-haven flows and BOJ policy shifts support a continued JPY appreciation. • Political Uncertainty: With Trump returning to the White House, geopolitical risks and uncertainty will favor the Yen as a safe-haven asset. • Liquidity Considerations: • Volume is light below 190, meaning moves could be quick and violent. • Traders using high leverage should proceed with caution. Intraday & Countertrend Considerations • 4H & 2H Timeframe Analysis: • 4H RSI at 29.17 – Oversold but no strong reversal confirmation yet. • MACD deep red; ATR shows increased volatility. • 2H ADX at 40.22, indicating strong downward momentum, though momentum exhaustion may be approaching. • Potential Counter-Long Trade: • 188 region could provide a short-term bounce, aligning with a historical pivot point from December 3rd. • For those taking counter-trend longs: Risk should be kept at 0.5%. • Stop-loss and take-profit strategy: TP could align with the bullish OB and descending channel retest near 190.6. Final Thoughts Key Takeaways • Next Major Target: 185 (Daily Order Block), potential move to 181 if breakdown continues. • Bearish Confirmation: Break below 100 SMA & Weekly Ichimoku Cloud. • Yen Strengthening Due to BOJ Policy & Risk-Off Sentiment. • No Signs of Bullish Reversal Yet – Counter-trend trades should be approached with caution. Trade smart. Stay ahead.
Short
by EliteMarketAnalysis
GBPJPYOn February 6, 2025, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey spoke after the BoE Monetary Policy Committee decided to cut the Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it down to 4.5% Key Points from Bailey's Remarks: Rate Cut Justification: The cut was made due to the progress in reducing inflationary pressures in the UK economy, allowing for a less restrictive monetary policy. Future Rate Cuts: Bailey indicated the possibility of further rate cuts as the disinflation process continues, but these will be assessed "meeting by meeting". Inflation Outlook: Inflation is expected to increase to around 3.7% this year before returning to the 2% target. The Bank Rate will be set to ensure this happens sustainably. Economic Activity: The UK economy has been weaker than expected, and GDP growth is projected to be notably weaker in the near term before picking up. Tariff Impact: Bailey acknowledged that the UK couldn't avoid the impact of potential U.S. tariffs, even if not directly targeted2. He noted that if tariffs lead to a fragmentation of the global economy, it would not be beneficial for growth. Gradual and Careful Approach: Bailey emphasized a gradual and careful approach to withdrawing monetary policy restrictiveness, citing increased uncertainty and risks to inflation1. Dovish Reaction: Bailey cautioned markets against overreacting to the policy vote. Uncertainty: The outlook for the British economy remains uncertain. MPC Split: Seven of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) supported the 0.25 percentage point decrease, while two advocated for a more substantial cut of 50 basis points. GBPJPY will correct the long bearish drop tomorrow and hopefully before the end of the month come to my demand floor.
by Shavyfxhub
GBP/JPY: Finally, the Rate Cut Has Arrived!GBP/JPY is facing significant bearish pressure, with the price dropping to around 188.40 in the recent sessions on February 6, 2025. The main catalyst behind this trend has been the Bank of England’s interest rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing it down to 4.5%. This decision has intensified the weakness of the British pound, prompting investors to liquidate long positions and fueling the strong decline in the pair. The market is now pricing in the possibility of further rate cuts in the coming months, which keeps sentiment firmly bearish. From a technical perspective, the breakdown below the key level of 190.50 has confirmed the loss of bullish momentum. Even the recovery attempts seen in previous days, such as the rebound to 193.00 on February 4, have proven weak and incapable of reversing the primary trend. The current phase of weakness could lead the pair to test further lower support levels, with 187.50 and then 185.80 as possible bearish targets unless there is a positive reaction from the pound. On the macroeconomic front, the divergence between the BoE and the Bank of Japan could theoretically provide some medium-term support for the pound, given that the BoJ continues to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy. However, the market currently seems more focused on the deteriorating economic outlook for the UK and the increasing likelihood that the BoE will continue cutting rates, enhancing the yen’s appeal as a defensive asset. If risk-off sentiment intensifies, we could see an acceleration of the bearish trend in GBP/JPY, especially if the global market enters a more pronounced risk-averse phase.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/JPY Trade Setup – Supply & Demand Zones Smart Money ConceptAnalysis Overview The price is in a clear downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. A strong supply zone (red) around 190.514 acted as a resistance, leading to a sharp rejection and further downside movement. Key Levels: 🔴 Supply Zone: 189.800 - 190.500 (previous area of institutional sell orders) 🔵 Demand Zone: 188.000 - 188.300 (potential liquidity grab) 🟢 Entry Confirmation: A small consolidation before a bullish retracement. Trade Setup: Entry: Based on rejection from demand zone (188.000-188.300) Stop Loss: Below 188.018 (previous low) Take Profit: 190.514 (previous resistance) 📌 Market Bias: Bearish until price breaks above the supply zone. A retest of the demand zone could lead to a short-term bullish retracement before continuing the downtrend. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Trade with proper risk management! 🚀
Long
by naumanfx_
Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of GBPJPY at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
Long
by syomking76418
GBPJPY triggers bearish triangle patternThe Bank of England (BoE) has reduced its interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%, marking the third cut since August. This decision reflects concerns over economic stagnation and persistent inflation. Concurrently, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has increased its short-term policy rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, the highest level in 17 years, signaling confidence in achieving its 2% inflation target. These contrasting monetary policies have exerted pressure on the GBP/JPY currency pair, which has recently broken through a triangle pattern, indicating a potential sharp decline of approximately 1,000 pips. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
GBP/JPY Long Setup – Brokerir Exclusive AnalysisGBP/JPY (GJ) is currently approaching two key support levels at 189.554 and 189.200, where buying interest is expected to emerge. Based on technical analysis, price action suggests a long (buy) opportunity, targeting 189.900 as the next resistance level. This setup aligns with multiple confluences, including support rejections, trend analysis, and momentum indicators, making it a high-probability trade. Key Technical Levels Support Levels (Long Entry Points): 189.554 – First support level where buyers might step in. 189.200 – Stronger support zone, where price could see a solid bounce. Target Resistance: 189.900 – Expected take-profit zone based on prior price action. Technical Factors Supporting the Long Setup 1️⃣ Price Action & Market Structure GBP/JPY remains in an overall bullish structure, with price retracing to a support zone before a potential continuation upwards. Bullish rejection candles around 189.554 or 189.200 will confirm buyer dominance. 2️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement & Support Confluence The 189.200 level aligns with a key Fibonacci retracement zone, reinforcing its significance as a strong support area. Previous demand zones in this area indicate a higher probability of price bouncing back towards 189.900. 3️⃣ RSI & Momentum Indicators RSI is near oversold conditions, signaling potential bullish reversal. MACD shows weakening bearish momentum, increasing the probability of an upward move. 4️⃣ Volume & Order Flow Analysis Increasing buying volume near support zones suggests that institutions and large traders may be accumulating long positions. A bullish engulfing candle or a strong rejection at support will further validate the trade setup.
Long
by SasanHATAM
The Grizzly is on the prowlPlz be patient and wait for pullback to the orange lines around 618 fib level.. Then sell this pair and take profits at the 200 fib level on the bottom (purple lines) which is the next level of support Stop-loss above the orange lines which was last support area which is now resistance However if price rejects at the black lines around the 189.895 go ahead and sell there it is safe and also a stronger level of resistance than the orange lines Just sell at the black lines 189.895 and take profits at 188.600 However 🤔 if price breaks thru resistance the orange lines wait for a pullback and buy back up to the last level of resistance
Short
by SETITAND4GETIT
GBPJPY Will Go Higher From Support! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for GBPJPY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 190.245. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 193.925 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
2