GBP/JPY 30-Minute Chart Analysis (Feb 28 2025
**Key Observations:**
1. **Market Structure:**
- A **strong bearish move** recently broke below the **Previous Day Low (PDL)**.
- **Change of Character (ChOCH)** occurred at the lower levels, indicating a potential reversal attempt.
- Price has tapped into the **discount zone** and reacted sharply, suggesting some buying interest.
2. **Liquidity Areas:**
- **Previous Weak Low (PWL) & Discount Zone (Below 188.000)**: This zone acted as a liquidity grab.
- **Previous Day High (PDH ~190.000)**: A strong supply area that might be targeted if price reverses.
- **Premium Zone (~190.200 & Above)**: Heavy resistance exists here, meaning buyers would need strong momentum to push through.
3. **Current Price Action:**
- The price has **rejected from the discount zone**, which is a key demand area.
- The price is trading **below equilibrium**, meaning it's still in a discounted state.
- If buyers step in, we might see an attempt to reclaim equilibrium (~188.800-189.200).
*Probability-Based Scenarios:**
1. **Bullish Scenario (Rebound Towards Equilibrium or PDH)**
- **Probability: 55%**
- **Reasons:**
- Price reacted to the **discount zone**, showing some bullish interest.
- ChOCH signals a possible shift in momentum.
- If price **breaks and holds above 188.600**, it could move toward **equilibrium (~188.800-189.200)** or even **PDH (190.000)**.
2. **Bearish Scenario (Continuation Below PWL & Weak Low)**
- **Probability: 45%**
- **Reasons:**
- If price **fails to reclaim equilibrium**, sellers may push it back toward **weak lows (187.800 area)**.
- The market is still in a bearish trend, and this could just be a temporary retracement before another drop.
- If price **fails at 188.600**, a return to the demand zone is likely.
**Final Thoughts:**
- **Slightly higher probability for a bullish retracement (55%)**, but the trend remains bearish.
- **Key Confirmation Needed:**
- **Above 188.600:** Bullish move toward equilibrium.
- **Below 188.200:** Bearish continuation likely.
