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USDJPY Technical Analysis.This chart shows the USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen) currency pair on the 1-hour timeframe, with the following analysis: 1. Current Price: 144.530 2. Trend Outlook: The analysis suggests a bearish scenario is likely. 3. Price Action: The price has been consolidating below resistance. The chart outlines a potential bearish rejection from the resistance zone. 4. Stop Loss (SL): Marked above the current price action, above the recent highs — a safety level in case price reverses and breaks upwards. 5. Target: The target is around 144.121, indicating a short position with a relatively small risk-to-reward range. 6. Scenarios: Red path (bearish): Expected price to drop after failing to break above resistance. Green path (invalidated scenario): If the price breaks above SL, the bearish setup becomes invalid. This chart reflects a short trade setup, betting on a pullback or continuation of the downtrend. Let me know if you’d like help calculating position size, risk/reward ratio, or creating an alert system for this trade.
Short
by XAUUSD_EXPERT_Team
USDJPY Tap and Dump – Perfect Lower Timeframe ReversalSmart Money Scalpers, it’s time to eat 🍽️ USDJPY just played into a beautiful supply zone rejection on the 30-minute chart, with clean confluence from structure, trendlines, and OB reaction. Let’s break it down like a pro: 🧠 Market Structure Narrative: 🔻 Strong bearish momentum 🔹 Price created a clear lower low 🔹 Pullback into a premium zone = sniper short entry setup You’re looking at textbook bearish order flow, with price rejecting hard from the 143.805 zone, which served as a high-risk institutional POI (Point of Interest). 🟥 Supply Zone / OB Zone: 📌 OB Range: Top: 143.805 Bottom: 143.639 This red zone triggered the last bearish impulse and was just tapped and rejected with precision. The reaction candle wick shows clear rejection = institutions likely mitigating and initiating shorts. 📐 Trendline Confluence: You’ve got a perfect descending channel running down with clean touches on both trendlines. Price bounced off the upper line → trendline + OB = double whammy setup 💥 🎯 Entry Plan: Entry: 143.512 SL: 143.805 (above OB) TP: 142.358 (next liquidity pocket) This gives a juicy RRR of around 3.9–4x, depending on your exact fill. 🎯 Why This Works: Price reacted to a clear OB Inside a descending channel Weak bullish push = no conviction Favorable RRR = asymmetrical edge Perfect combo of SMC + structure + execution = sniper-grade entry 🔫 🧠 Key Lesson: “Let price come to you. Smart Money doesn’t chase — it traps and snaps.” This is a trap sprung with surgical precision. Execution was key — and you nailed it. 🗣️ If this setup hit your radar too, drop a “🎯” in the comments 📌 Save this — these are the trades that build your bankroll over time.
Short
by ChartNinjas88
There is too much uncertainty.The USD/JPY exchange rate lingered near 144.50 during the European session, remaining under pressure. Although the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) found temporary support near 100.10, its overall trend remains uncertain following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating. Market sentiment is currently tilted toward cautious bearishness, with traders concerned about U.S. debt issues and uncertainties in trade policies—sentiments reflected in the dollar’s weakness. Meanwhile, the progress of U.S.-Japan trade negotiations has added to market uncertainty. Technical Outlook: Short-Term: If the pair stabilizes above the 143.74 support level and rebounds above 145, it may challenge the 146.19 resistance level in the near term. A decisive breakout above 146.19 could trigger a new upward trend, targeting 147.95 and 148.64. Long-Term: A genuine confirmation of a bullish regime would require breaking above the 150 psychological level, which hinges on fundamental catalysts such as the Federal Reserve delaying rate cuts or the Bank of Japan shifting to a more accommodative stance. Key Drivers to Monitor: U.S. Treasury yield dynamics and Fed policy expectations. Developments in U.S.-Japan trade talks and risk sentiment shifts. Volatility in global equity markets and safe-haven flows. Market participants are advised to exercise caution amid heightened uncertainty, with tight stop-losses recommended for directional trades. In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
by Ashbur
USDJPYUSD/JPY Interest Rate Differential and Bond Yield Overview (May 2025) Interest Rate Differential Federal Reserve (Fed): Policy rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% as of May 2025, with expectations of holding rates steady for the near term. Fed’s cautious stance supports a relatively high yield environment in the U.S. Bank of Japan (BoJ): Policy rate raised to 0.50% in January 2025, the highest level in 17 years, marking a departure from ultra-loose monetary policy. Further rate hikes are anticipated every six months, possibly reaching closer to a neutral rate (~2%) by 2027, but BoJ remains dovish compared to the Fed. Differential: The interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan has narrowed significantly in 2025 due to BoJ hikes and Fed rate hold. Current differential is roughly 3.75–4.00% in favor of the U.S., down from wider gaps in previous years. Bond Yield Dynamics U.S. Treasury Yields: 10-year Treasury yields hover around 4.3%–4.5%, reflecting inflation concerns and fiscal risks. Yields have been volatile but remain elevated, supporting the dollar’s yield advantage. Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs): 10-year JGB yields increased to about 0.5%, reflecting BoJ’s policy shift but still extremely low compared to U.S. yields. BoJ’s gradual reduction in bond purchases and policy normalization supports a stronger yen over time. Impact on USD/JPY Exchange Rate The narrowing interest rate differential reduces the carry trade advantage for USD/JPY, contributing to recent yen strength and USD/JPY declines from 2024 highs near ¥157 to around ¥145–146 in May 2025. Market forecasts vary: some expect USD/JPY to appreciate modestly toward ¥150+ in mid-2025 due to Fed steadiness and geopolitical risk, while others predict further yen gains as BoJ continues tightening and the Fed eventually cuts rates. Safe-haven flows and geopolitical tensions also influence USD/JPY, with the yen sometimes strengthening despite lower yield differentials. Summary Table Factor Impact on USD/JPY Fed policy steady (4.25–4.50%) Supports USD, upward pressure BoJ rate hikes (to 0.5% and rising) Strengthens JPY, downward pressure Narrowing interest rate differential Reduces USD carry trade advantage, yen support U.S. 10-year yields (~4.3–4.5%) Supports USD JGB yields (~0.5%) Supports JPY Geopolitical risk Safe-haven flows can strengthen JPY Conclusion The USD/JPY pair in May 2025 is shaped by a narrowing but still significant interest rate differential, with the Fed maintaining higher rates and the BoJ gradually tightening from ultra-loose policy. This narrowing gap has supported recent yen strength and USD/JPY declines from 2024 highs. However, elevated U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical risks provide intermittent support to the dollar. The pair is likely to remain volatile, with direction hinging on future Fed-BoJ policy moves and global risk sentiment.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
1
Hanzo / USDJPY 15m Path ( Confirmed Breakout Zones )🔥 USD/JPY – 15 Min Scalping Analysis (Bearish Setup) Bias: Waiting For Break Out Time Frame: 15 Min Entry Type: Confirmed Entry After Break Out 👌Bullish After Break Out : 144.550 👌Bearish After Break Out : 144.050 ☄️ Hanzo Protocol: Dual-Direction Entry Intel ➕ Zone Activated: Strategic Reaction from Refined Liquidity Layer Marked volatility from a high-precision supply/demand zone. System detects potential for both long and short operations. 🩸 Momentum Signature Detected: Displacement candle confirms directional intent — AI pattern scan active. — If upward: Bullish momentum burst. — If downward: Aggressive bearish rejection. 💯 Market Zone: Transition Phase Asset in premium-to-discount (or vice versa) range — valid for both reversal and continuation trades. Execute with precision.
by Path_Of_Hanzo
USDJPY H4 | Bullish Bounce Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 143.84, a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit is set at 1146.73, a pullback resistance. The stop loss is placed at 142.35, an overlap support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
I Think I Should Just Trade This SetupI Think I Should Just Trade This Setup So long story short, I just: 0. Assess whether price has Seeked Liquidity, or Rebalanced Fair Value to get a clue of current price intention. 1. Wait for Overextended Price (Bearish or Bullish), Higher TF = Better 2. Wait for 4HR up to 15min Divergence + Oversold/Overbought, at least 2 TF with same divergence 3. On 15min, plot your FVA (PDA must be respected). 4. Look for your FVG entry once price has left the FVA. 5. Target nPOCs that align with divergence + price action direction (ex. npoc below price + bearish div + premium array respected + bearish orderflow leg) I've been winning "random" trades like this, no TradingView needed, just MT5, and has saved my funded account from imminent death lol. But here's how, if I looked back on those trades, I entered. I mean, this makes sense. Combine Price Action(PDA + FVA Respected) with Volume Momentum. Oh, and just to add. I think nPOCs from previous sessions give a good clue about where price wants to go. For example, npoc below price + bearish div & overbought + premium array respected + bearish orderflow leg = target nPOC. I might have to track tradingview entries to see if this actually works.
by reventioaxie
Hanzo / USDJPY 15m Path ( Confirmed Breakout Zones )🔥 USD/JPY – 15 Min Scalping Analysis (Bearish Setup) Bias: Waiting For Break Out Time Frame: 15 Min Entry Type: Confirmed Entry After Break Out 👌Bullish After Break Out : 145.150 👌Bearish After Break Out : 144.650 ☄️ Hanzo Protocol: Dual-Direction Entry Intel ➕ Zone Activated: Strategic Reaction from Refined Liquidity Layer Marked volatility from a high-precision supply/demand zone. System detects potential for both long and short operations. 🔤 Smart Money Confirmation Acquired: Structure break aligned with order block integrity.➗ Both bullish and bearish models validated. Tactical options open. 🔥Multi-Timeframe Confluence:🩸 Higher timeframe levels intersect — prime territory for sniper scalps in either direction. 🩸 Momentum Signature Detected: Displacement candle confirms directional intent — AI pattern scan active. — If upward: Bullish momentum burst. — If downward: Aggressive bearish rejection. 💯 Market Zone: Transition Phase Asset in premium-to-discount (or vice versa) range — valid for both reversal and continuation trades. Execute with precision.
by Path_Of_Hanzo
4
USD/JPY: potential bullish move incoming On the daily chart we identify a strong area of support that has been touched 3 times in the past 16 months, with the most recent touch occurring 27 days ago. This could signal an extended uptrend is incoming. The SMA 50 is below the SMA 200 which signals a down trending market, however, price has been forming higher highs and higher lows since touching that important support level 27 days ago. Multiple interpretations exist here. The most likely interpretation is that price is ranging within a channel, bouncing from market tops to market lows, the market low in this case being the strong support level that we've mentioned. Zooming down into the 1 hour, we can see that a downward trendline of 4 touch points has been violated by a decently sized green candle. Furthermore, we can see that a trendline of 4 touchpoints on the RSI has been violated as well. Both of these indications signal a reversal is about to take place. This signal is reinforced further with the analysis performed on the daily chart, which shows that price has bounced off a strong level of support and is currently rallying upward. Adding onto this, a bullish divergence signal can be spotted on the RSI. We can see that prices have continued to make lower lows, yet the RSI is showing higher lows. This signal is showing weakness in the downtrend. Prices are falling yet upside momentum is rising, why? Because the downtrend is getting to the point where it can no longer sustain itself, signaling that prices may go up. This signal on its own isn't enough to take a trade. However, when combined with the trendline break of price and of the RSI, and the fact that the market is trending upward on the higher timeframe, the likelihood of a bullish move taking place increases. From a day trading perspective, a long position can be opened with the stop loss placed slightly below the most recent lows, and a take profit targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The final result being an excellent 1 to 4.31 risk to reward trade that can be placed.
Long
by TAandFA
UPDATE ON USD/JPY ANALYSISUSD/JPY 4H - As you can see price has recently broken structure to the downside, giving us the confluence needed to suggest further bearishness now in this pair longer term. Evidently enough Supply has been introduced to give us the flip in the S&D balance and the corrective wave that was trading us higher in a bullish way has now come to an end, why, because we are breaking lows and protecting highs now. I have gone ahead and marked out an area of interest I feel price will come to trade back up and into, should price trade us into this zone we want to see the same three step process take place before we enter. We want the penetration, rejection and break of structure, all of which confirm enough Supply has been introduced to now flip the fractal corrective wave followed after the initial break.
Short
by Lukegforex
USDJPYUSD/JPY Interest Rate Differential and Upcoming Economic Data (May–June 2025) Interest Rate Differential Federal Reserve (Fed): Policy rate: 4.25%–4.50% (held steady in May 2025). Outlook: Cautious stance amid mixed economic signals; markets expect no cuts until July 2025 unless inflation reaccelerates. Bank of Japan (BoJ): Policy rate: 0.50% (unchanged in May 2025, highest since 2008). Outlook: Dovish despite trimming growth and inflation forecasts; further hikes unlikely until 2026 due to U.S. tariff risks and weak GDP (-0.7% annualized in Q1). Differential: ~3.75–4.00% in favor of USD, sustaining a strong yield advantage for the dollar. Upcoming Economic Data and Events United States May 29: GDP Growth Rate QoQ (2nd estimate): Expected to confirm 2.4% QoQ growth, rebounding from Q1 contraction. Core PCE Prices QoQ (2nd estimate): Forecast to ease to 2.6% (from 3.5% in Q1), critical for Fed’s inflation assessment. May 30: Core PCE Price Index MoM/YoY: Key Fed inflation gauge; YoY expected at 2.6% (above 2% target). Fed Communications: FOMC Minutes (May 27) and speeches by Powell, Barkin, and Williams to clarify policy trajectory. Japan BoJ Policy Signals: Focus on U.S. tariff negotiations (24% on Japanese exports) and their impact on growth. Revised 2025 GDP growth to 0.5% (from 1.0%) and core inflation to 2.2% (from 2.7%) . Trade Data: Export performance under U.S. tariffs (autos, machinery) to influence JPY sentiment. Directional Bias for USD/JPY Short-Term (May–June): Bullish USD/JPY Fed’s steady rates vs. BoJ’s dovish hold sustains yield advantage. U.S. economic resilience (rebounding GDP, strong labor market) contrasts with Japan’s contraction. U.S. Tariff Escalation: Could dampen global growth, boosting safe-haven JPY. BoJ Surprise Hike: Unlikely but not impossible if inflation overshoots. Fed Dovish Shift: If U.S. data weakens, rate cut bets may pressure USD. Summary Table Factor USD Impact JPY Impact USD/JPY Bias Fed Rate Hold Strengthens USD – Bullish BoJ Dovish Stance – Weakens JPY Bullish U.S. GDP Rebound Supports USD – Bullish Japan’s GDP Contraction – Pressures JPY Bullish Conclusion: USD/JPY retains a bullish bias in the near term, driven by the Fed’s yield advantage and Japan’s economic fragility. However, escalating U.S. tariffs and safe-haven JPY demand could cap gains. Monitor U.S. inflation data (Core PCE) and BoJ rhetoric for shifts in momentum.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
2
This could be a trade of a lifetime. Watching JPY/USD🧠 Technical Analysis: USD/JPY (1M Chart) — May 16, 2025 📍 Chart Summary: Asset: USD/JPY Timeframe: 1-Minute Tool: Fibonacci Retracement Observation: The price has retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level near 145.55–145.56, which aligns with a historical order block. Strong support is evident at 145.557, confirmed by reaction wick and historical volume absorption. The projected path (red arrow) suggests a potential bullish reversal targeting 146.552 (1.382 Fibonacci extension). 📊 Key Levels: Level Type Price Key Support (Order Block) 145.557 Entry Area (Fib 0.618) 145.648 Local Resistance 146.100 Target (1.382 ext.) 146.552 ✅ Trade Setup (Bullish Bias): Entry: 145.56–145.65 Stop-Loss: Below 145.45 (Fib 0.5 + prior low buffer) Take-Profit: 146.10 → 146.38 → 146.55 Risk-Reward: ~1:2.5 if executed properly 🧠 Probability Estimate: Reversal from 61.8% Fib + OB: ~70% Hitting 146.55 (1.382 ext.): ~55–60% Invalidation: Break & close below 145.45 (below 0.5 level)
Long
by Wavervanir_International_LLC