JPYUSD trade ideas
Yen Gains on Recession FearsThe yen rose past 144 per dollar, a six-month high, as U.S. recession fears and a Treasury selloff boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Although Trump paused new tariffs for 90 days, total U.S. tariffs on China now stand at 145%, prompting retaliation with China imposing 84% tariffs on U.S. goods. The U.S.-Japan trade outlook remains in focus, with Japan still facing a 10% U.S. tariff but seeking better terms.
Key resistance is at 145.80, with further levels at 148.00 and 152.70. Support stands at 142.00, followed by 139.65 and 138.00.
Short! I opened two short positions yesterday. I have a few short positions that I opened last week, but I feel comfortable adding more now.
Entry - blue horizonal line in the chart.
Stop loss - red horizontal line in the chart.
Target 1, 2, 3 - black horizontal lines in the chart.
If it hit target one, I will move a stop loss to the entry position.Target 1 is the previous month low so I anticipate some correction. Once it resumes the downward movement, I plan to add position.
4H RSI provides reliable indication for pull back or trend reversal. So I will keep an eye on it.
If you are interested in knowing my reasoning for my bearish bias, please check out the linked articles I published last week.
USD/JPY(20250411)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The annual rate of the US CPI in March was 2.4%, a six-month low, lower than the market expectation of 2.6%. The market almost fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut in June. Trump said inflation has fallen.
Technical analysis:
Today's long-short boundary:
145.38
Support and resistance levels:
149.05
147.68
146.79
143.97
143.08
141.71
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 145.38, consider buying, the first target price is 146.79
If the price breaks through 143.97, consider selling, the first target price is 143.08
Might going up, but nothing comfirmed. My bias for LSThis is my bias for London session and friday overall.
USDJPY went down alot yesterday due today USA vs CHINA, dont think i have to explain anything.
If sir Trump doesnt do some magic tomorrow we might hit and upward trend and reverse this bearish movement.
2 lines, 1 for resistance and the other for support.
:-)
Possible bearish movement from price level 147.300Setup Description:
Price is approaching a major resistance zone between 147.200 – 147.530, which previously acted as a strong rejection area. Market structure shows signs of a lower high, indicating potential bearish continuation. No clear breakout above resistance, suggesting bulls are losing momentum.
Entry Reasoning:
Previous strong rejection from 147.530
Bearish market structure (lower high)
Potential for large risk-reward if price rejects this zone
Clean traffic down to next support zones
USD/JPY(20250410)Today's AnalysisToday's buying and selling boundaries:
146.66
Support and resistance levels:
150.90
149.32
148.29
145.03
144.01
142.42
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 148.29, consider buying, the first target price is 149.32
If the price breaks through 146.66, consider selling, the first target price is 145.03
USD/JPY) Bullish reversal analysis read the Caption EA GOLD point update
This chart is for USD/JPY on the 1-hour time frame,and it presents a bullish trade setup.Let's break down the idea
Key Observations ;
1.Current Price;
USD/JPY is trading Around 146.281.
2.Overall Bias
Bullish setup expecting a bounce from demand into a higher target zone.
3.EMA 200;
price is currently below the 200 EMA (147.942).which usually suggests a bearish trend _but this setup is aiming for a short-term Bullish retracement.
USDJPY H1 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H1 chart, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 145.09, a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit is set at 148.83, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is set at 143.98, a swing low support.
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Another tariff u-turn: Oil overbought on news? President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries that have not retaliated, sparking a sharp rally in U.S. markets. The Nasdaq 100 led gains with a 12.2% surge. The U.S. dollar also strengthened against safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
Crude oil prices rebounded alongside equities, with oil futures rising more than 4% to trade above $62 per barrel.
However, the strength of the oil rally may be overstated. China, one of the world’s largest oil consumers, was among the first to retaliate against U.S. tariffs. Tensions between Washington and Beijing have worsened, prompting the U.S. to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%.
Adding to the caution, analysts at Goldman Sachs revised down their 2026 average price forecasts for Brent and WTI, citing rising recession risks. The bank now expects Brent to average $58 per barrel and WTI to average $55.
USDJPY Bearish continuation below 148.10The USDJPY currency pair remains in a bearish trend, with the recent price action showing signs of an oversold bounce. While a temporary rebound is in play, the broader sentiment remains weak unless a decisive breakout occurs.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Levels: 148.10 (critical level), 150.10, 150.90
Support Levels: 144.20, 143.00, 141.40
Bearish Scenario:
A rejection from the 148.10 resistance level could reaffirm the downside bias, leading to a continuation of the bearish move toward 142.20, with extended declines targeting 143.00 and 141.40 over the longer timeframe.
Bullish Scenario:
A breakout above 148.10 with a daily close above this level would challenge the bearish sentiment, opening the door for further gains toward 150.10, followed by 150.90.
Conclusion:
The market sentiment remains bearish, with 148.10 acting as a critical resistance zone. A rejection from this level could reinforce the downtrend, while a confirmed breakout would shift the outlook to bullish, favouring further upside. Traders should closely monitor price action at this key level for confirmation.
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DXY Long Bias – Demand Zone Reaction Driving USD Strength
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing early signs of a bullish reversal following a strong reaction off a key intraday demand zone.
📊 Trade Context (USDJPY)
• Entered long after liquidity sweep and demand zone confirmation during NY Open.
• Clear bullish intent with a break of structure on the 15min.
• Aligned with potential DXY recovery, supporting USD strength across the board.
🧠 Bias Justification
• NY session often sets the real direction – and here we see bullish pressure stepping in.
• DXY printing higher lows intraday.
• Correlation with USDJPY and other majors showing early bullish divergence.
🎯 Targets:
• USDJPY: 145.02 > 146.60
• DXY: Eyes on retesting previous resistance zones.
❌ Invalidation:
• Clean break below intraday demand or 143.97 on USDJPY.
📅 April 9, 2025 – NY Session Setup
Let’s see if the dollar bulls take control.
⸻
Let me know if you want it tailored more for social media, or with hashtags like #DXY #USDJPY #Forex #SmartMoneyConcepts etc.
USD/JPY(20250409)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency reiterated that the specific tax rates for each country will be announced at 12:01 a.m. on April 9.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
146.77
Support and resistance levels
148.90
148.10
147.59
145.95
145.43
144.63
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 145.95, consider buying, the first target price is 146.77
If the price breaks through 145.43, consider selling, the first target price is 144.63
Yen Appreciates with Trade TurmoilThe Japanese yen rose above 146 per dollar on Wednesday, extending gains as Trump's looming tariffs drove safe-haven flows. The dollar weakened on recession fears tied to escalating trade tensions and potential Fed rate cuts. New U.S. tariffs include a 24% duty on Japanese goods and a 25% car import levy. Trump confirmed that Japan will send a delegation to renegotiate terms, while PM Ishiba urged a policy rethink. Domestically, Japan's current account surplus hit a record in February, supported by strong exports and reduced imports, boosting the yen further.
Key resistance is at 148.70, with further levels at 152.70 and 157.70. Support stands at 145.60, followed by 143.00 and 141.80.