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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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JPYUSD trade ideas

Long-term yen weakness persists due to Fed–BoJ policy divergenceLong-term yen weakness persists due to Fed–BoJ policy divergence and declining exports. Technical analysis USDJPY has formed a series of higher highs and higher lows, signaling the early stage of an uptrend. However, the strength of this trend remains uncertain, as each new high is followed by a pullback, indicating a fragile uptrend. If the price holds above 147.00 and prints a higher low, it would reinforce the bullish structure, with the next upside target near the previous swing high at 151.00. Conversely, a break below 145.70 would invalidate the bullish bias and could trigger a deeper decline toward the next support at 142.70. Fundamental analysis The easing of market concerns over retaliatory tariffs has recently supported a rise in USDJPY. However, weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payroll data has fueled expectations of a more dovish Fed, placing short-term downward pressure on the dollar. Nonetheless, the BoJ’s cautious and persistently dovish stance limits the yen’s long-term support, while ongoing yen carry trade activity continues to exert downward pressure on the currency in the medium term. Additionally, Japan’s Jun export data showed a 0.5% YoY decline, the second consecutive monthly contraction, driven primarily by reduced exports of automobiles and steel. These declines reflect continued pressure from US import tariffs, particularly the 25% on Japanese cars, which remains a downside risk for the yen. Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by KrisadaYoonaisil
USD/JPYThis analysis is built on volume analysis, Fibonacci retracement levels, and confirmation from the Stochastic oscillator to pinpoint a precise long entry. The setup reflects a potential bullish continuation supported by strong demand and upward momentum. Entry: 147.76 area Stop-Loss: 147.56 area Take-Profit: 148.55 area Risk-to-Reward Ratio: ~1:4.5 This setup aims to capture a breakout or bounce from a key Fibonacci level, where the volume confirms buying interest and the Stochastic indicates a reversal from oversold conditions. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and apply proper risk management.
Long
by alisardari
USD/JPY IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING A BEARISH TREND STRUCTUREThe USD/JPY currency pair is currently exhibiting a bearish trend structure on the daily timeframe, signaling potential further declines in the upcoming trading sessions. Price action is trading near a lower high, reinforcing the bearish outlook as sellers appear to be gaining control. This downward momentum follows the recent formation of a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern near a significant resistance level, which often serves as a strong reversal signal. The presence of this pattern near resistance suggests that bullish momentum is weakening, increasing the likelihood of a sustained bearish move. On the downside, the pair is expected to target the 142.00 level, which could act as a key support zone. A break below this level may accelerate selling pressure, opening the door for further declines. Traders should monitor price reactions around this level for potential consolidation or continuation of the downtrend. Conversely, if the pair attempts a recovery, the 151.300 price level stands as a major resistance barrier. Any bullish retracement towards this zone could attract renewed selling interest, reinforcing the bearish bias. The overall technical structure suggests that USD/JPY remains vulnerable to additional downside, with bearish momentum likely to persist unless key resistance levels are convincingly breached. Traders may consider short positions on rallies towards resistance or breakdowns below key support levels, while maintaining tight risk management strategies. Given the current market dynamics, the path of least resistance appears to be downward, with 142.00 as the immediate target and 151.300 acting as a critical resistance to watch for any potential trend reversals.
Short
by TraderAishDXB
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 4, 2025 USDJPYAfter Friday’s weak U.S. jobs report, USD/JPY fell sharply, breaking below 150. At the start of the new week the pair stabilized around 147–148, yet the fundamental backdrop remains tilted against the dollar: expectations for Fed cuts in the coming months are weighing on U.S. yields and narrowing the U.S.–Japan yield spread—the primary long-run driver of USD/JPY. Exclusive for our readers – a 202% bonus on deposits of $202 or more! Give the promo code PROFIT202 to customer support and start trading with TRIPLED capital. Full promo details are available via the link. The Bank of Japan continues an ultra-loose stance, with forecasts showing inflation around target but little appetite for aggressive tightening in the near term. That leaves the main channel of yen support tied to U.S. yield dynamics and global demand for safe-haven assets. With softer U.S. yields and elevated U.S. political uncertainty, demand for defensive currencies may stay resilient. Additional risk factors include commentary from Japan’s Ministry of Finance regarding the yen and potential bouts of volatility around Fed communications and incoming U.S. data. Today’s base case favors selling USD/JPY on corrective upticks toward 146, as pressure from lower U.S. yields persists. Trade idea: SELL 147.550, SL 148.550, TP 146.050
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY a reduction in the density of long tradesWe analyzes the structure of market behavior and identifies a class of typical weak patterns: a reduction in the density of long trades, a gradual downward shift in volume, and a lack of dominant driving logic in the market. The currency pair has shown a pattern of "not deep enough to fall, not high enough to bounce" around several key psychological levels, which is a reflection of the gradual dominance of short-side funds. We scored semantic models on multiple social media platforms and found that investors are experiencing a shift in sentiment from "neutral wait-and-see" to "pessimistic risk aversion". At the same time, the spread of short positions identified by the system has increased, implying that not only professional investors, but also some small and medium-sized traders have begun to be bearish. The long-short momentum distribution curve shows the cumulative advantage of the short side, and the lack of substantial positive catalyst, the probability of reversal in the short term is low.
Short
by Double_RR
USDJPY 4Hour TF - August 3rd, 2025🟦 USDJPY 4H Analysis Bullish Idea 📅 August 3, 2025 🔹 Top-Down Trend Bias: • Monthly – Bullish • Weekly – Bearish • Daily – Bullish • 4H – Bearish USDJPY has retraced sharply from local highs, breaking down into prior support near 147.50. Short term structure has shifted bearish, but higher timeframes still lean bullish making this a key reaction zone to monitor. 🔍 Key Zone: 147.00 – 147.50 This zone sits at a prior key support zone. How price reacts here will determine whether the pair resumes its bullish leg or continues deeper. ✅ Scenario A: Bullish Rejection (Blue Path) 1.If price holds above 147.00–147.50 and prints bullish confirmation 2.Look for continuation toward 151.50 Target: 151.50 (next clean resistance zone) This setup aligns with the HTF bullish trend. Clean break of structure and bullish reactions are needed for confirmation. ⚠️ Scenario B: Bearish Breakdown (Orange Path) 1.If price breaks and closes below 147.500 zone 2.Watch for lower high + retest rejection Target: 145.00 support zone This is a lower probability counter trend continuation but is possible if price action presents the needed confirmations. 🧠 Final Notes • Price is at a decision point, wait for Price action confirmation • HTF bias leans bullish, but 4H structure must shift back up • Trade with structure, not against it
Long
by ForexLeague
USDJPY The Week Ahead Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 148.90 Resistance Level 2: 149.70 Resistance Level 3: 150.20 Support Level 1: 146.12 Support Level 2: 145.40 Support Level 3: 144.60 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
304-PIP Move on USDJPY in One Day - Trading NFP ProfitablyOn August 1st, USDJPY experienced a massive 304-pip drop after a strong impulse into the daily order block. From there, the daily order block was respected, and the retracement was induced by the USD Non-Farm Payrolls news release, leading to a sharp move down to a four-hour liquidity void, hitting the 75% Fibonacci retracement level. This move highlights the precision of combining institutional levels with news catalysts, capturing a significant move in a short timeframe. This is Outlier Trading Folks.
Short
by OutlierTrading
Dollar-yen seems to have made a decisive breakoutBoth the Fed and the BoJ reaffirmed their cautious approaches to changing rates in recent days, but the dollar had the larger boost. The next cut by the Fed isn’t expected until the end of October. While the BoJ upgraded its expectations for inflation this fiscal year, the impact of trade wars on both sides is still developing. Havens haven’t had significant inflows after new tariffs came into force on 1 August. ¥150 is a key psychological area which still hasn’t been clearly broken, so it’d be possible to see consolidation rather than continuation in the near future depending on the results of the upcoming NFP, especially considering overbought signals from the slow stochastic and Bollinger Bands. February and March’s high around ¥151 looks like a possible area of resistance. The 38.2% weekly Fibonacci retracement definitely seems to have been broken so it might now flip to being a support. Dynamic support could also come from the 200 SMA around ¥148.90. As for euro-dollar, the next immediate movement (or lack thereof) depends mainly on the NFP. Some degree of positive surprise might be priced in since the consensus of 110,000 for total nonfarm seems low relative to the last several months of stronger results. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
USD/CHF This is a trade setup for USD/CHF, based on volume and trend analysis. Entry Price: 0.81473 Stop-Loss (SL): 0.81293 Take-Profit (TP): 0.81673 The trade is intended to be executed instantly at the mentioned price, following confirmation from both volume behavior and the current trend direction. Disclaimer: This setup is shared purely for backtesting purposes and to document trade ideas. It is not financial advice. Always perform your own analysis before making any trading decisions.
Long
by alisardari
USDJPY – Buy Scenario & Sell Setup After Rise (Aug 1, 18:00)📌 Current Situation At this point, entering a buy trade immediately is difficult from a trend-following perspective, since the price has already made a significant upward move. ✅ Buy Scenario 1 Overview: Looking to follow a bullish move triggered by a rebound from the moving average and the previous resistance-turned-support area. Conditions: Formation of a higher low (according to Dow Theory) Price supported by the moving average (Granville’s Rule) Clear reversal pattern on a lower timeframe: either a double bottom or a higher low followed by a higher high Caution: There is resistance above. Even if price continues upward, it might have limited room to break higher, so expect possible weakening of momentum. Plan: Aim to enter as close as possible to the support area near the resistance zone, at a lower price level. 🔻 Sell Scenario 1 (after an upward move) Overview: Anticipating a bearish reversal from around the 151.500 resistance zone, which has previously acted as a strong ceiling. Conditions: Formation of a lower high (Dow Theory) At least a flat or downward-sloping moving average, or a move that breaks below the MA and gets rejected from it (Granville) Clear reversal on a lower timeframe: either a double top or a lower high followed by a lower low → This confirms a trend reversal on the lower timeframe Caution: If price drops before forming a clear lower high, there's a risk of a rebound due to the upward-sloping MA. It’s important to wait for both the lower high and MA rejection structure. Also, the daily MA is rising from below, which may support price. Plan: Ideally enter from as close as possible to the resistance area (around 151.500) after confirmation.
by kabu-to-surfing
USD/JPY: Fifth Wave Target in SightUSD/JPY is painting a textbook five-wave impulse structure from the recent lows, and we're now positioned for what could be the final act of this motive sequence. Current Wave Count ✅ Waves 1-3 Complete: Clean impulsive structure with wave 3 showing strong extension ✅ Wave 4 in Progress: Currently correcting from the 150.94 high 🎯 Wave 5 Setup: Targeting completion around 151.95 - 152.20 Key Levels to Watch Support Zone: 150.00 area (ideal wave 4 retracement) This aligns with wave principle fourth-wave correction parameters Provides a healthy pullback without threatening wave 1 overlap Target: 151.95 - 152.20 zone for wave 5 completion Classic 5 vs 1+3 projection Trade Strategy Monitor for supportive price action near 150.00 Look for an impulsive price action to confirm wave 5 beginning Structure suggests one more leg higher before a larger correction The beauty of Elliott Wave: when the count is this clean, the roadmap becomes crystal clear. Let's see if USD/JPY delivers this final push to complete the sequence.
Long
by TheSignalService
USD/JPY USD/JPY – Bullish Setup in Line with the Prevailing Trend As the overall trend remains bullish, we are considering a potential long setup on USD/JPY. The structure suggests continued upside momentum, and we aim to close the trade by the end of the European session. 📍 Entry: 149.400 🎯 Target: 150.600 🛑 Stop-loss: 148.600 This idea aligns with current market direction and intraday trend strength. Traders should watch for supportive price action to confirm the move. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.
Long
by alisardari
USDJPY Analysis : Key Reversal Zone After Parabolic Rally🧠 Market Psychology & Structure The USDJPY 4-hour chart reveals a classic parabolic curve pattern signifying an acceleration phase in bullish momentum. This phase typically occurs during the final stages of a bullish move, where price action becomes increasingly steep due to aggressive buyer participation. The rounded curve drawn on the chart reflects momentum compression—where pullbacks become shallower, and higher highs are formed rapidly. However, this pattern often ends in a blow-off top or a sharp correction, especially when approaching key supply zones. 🧩 Key Technical Highlights Major Break Zone: The previous resistance around 148.80–149.00 (now flipped to support) was clearly broken with strong bullish candles, confirming trend continuation. Break Out Demand : Price retested the breakout zone (around 149.80–150.00) before launching higher, validating this level as a new demand zone. Current Price Action: The pair is currently hovering around 150.50 after a powerful rally, showing early signs of exhaustion with smaller bullish candles and slight upper wicks. 🔍 Target Area – Next Reversal Zone (151.80–152.30) The green highlighted zone marks a strong supply area / reversal zone, identified from: Previous price rejections in historical data. Overbought conditions due to vertical rally. Completion of the parabolic structure (climax zone). We can expect price to reach this zone in the coming sessions, where it may: Face strong selling pressure. Trigger short positions from institutional sellers. Lead to distribution or reversal back toward the demand area near 150.00. 🔄 Forecast & Trade Plan Scenario 1 (High Probability): Price taps into 151.80–152.30, forms bearish engulfing or rejection wick, then pulls back to 150.00 or lower. Scenario 2 (Invalidation): Strong breakout above 152.30 with momentum—bullish continuation towards 153.00+ possible. 🧠 Trader’s Mindset (MMC Insight) This chart suggests a matured bullish trend nearing exhaustion. As smart traders, we anticipate rather than react. Wait for the price to reach the supply zone, then observe for confirmation (bearish structure, divergence, candlestick pattern) before shorting. Avoid chasing longs at these highs—risk-to-reward is no longer favorable. Patience will offer a much cleaner entry if the reversal unfolds as expected.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
USD/JPY - Potential TargetsDear Friends in Trading, How I see it, Let me know if anything is unclear. NFP TODAY - BE SAFE 1) 151.150 holds the key to broader upside at this time. 2) 1st resistance @ 150.730 3) Key support/Strong Demand @ 148.850 Keynote: In case of a short correction of the previous day candle- If price can hold above 149.500, potential for more upside remains high. I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight. Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
Long
by ANROC
USDJPY Wave Analysis – 31 July 2025- USDJPY broke resistance zone - Likely rise to resistance level 152.00 USDJPY currency pair recently broke the resistance zone located between the resistance level 148.85 (which stopped earlier waves A and i) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from January. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active impulse wave c, which belongs to medium-term ABC correction (2) from April. USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 152.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave C).
Long
by FxProGlobal