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Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar

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Downtrend Awaiting ConfirmationUSDJPY has just made a technical rebound from the support zone at 142.22 up to the resistance area around 144.60 — a confluence with both the EMA 34 and EMA 89. However, based on the chart, this zone has previously acted as a reversal point, and price is now retesting that same level of rejection. The current price action suggests a high likelihood of a small double-top pattern forming around 144.60. If selling pressure re-emerges here, the market could reverse and head back down toward 142.22, aligning with the developing downtrend. Moody’s recent warning on U.S. credit rating has placed pressure on the USD, while the JPY continues to hold its safe-haven appeal amid market uncertainty.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
Yen Reaches Highest Level in a MonthThe Japanese yen strengthened toward 142 per dollar on Tuesday, its highest in four weeks, driven by safe-haven inflows and weak dollar sentiment tied to Trump’s fiscal plan. Worries over a widening U.S. deficit weighed on the greenback, while speculation of a 25% iPhone tariff added to trade conflicts. Domestically, expectations for more BoJ tightening rose after core inflation surprised at 3.5%, a two-year high. Resistance stands at 148.60, with further levels at 149.80 and 151.20. Support is found at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.
by ChartMage
USDJPY Demand Zone Consolidation. Wait for BRT Above or BelowIf CMP crosses above top zone and closes on 1H chart, take the Buy Retest. If CMP crosses below the bottom zone and closes on the 1H chart, take the Sell Retest. Go for 1:1 risk to reward MINIMUM. This strategy is 7-8 out of 10 (70-80%) but can produce upwards of 90% accuracy. Be patient. Be disciplined. Be consistent. 30 pips SL // 30 pips TP *This is not financial advice. Trading involves risk, do not over leverage. Risk only what you are willing to lose.* If you are actively monitoring your trade, you can remove your TP once price goes into profit and start a trailing stop! At 10 pips, move your SL into profit at 2-3 pips to break even. If price goes to 20 pips in profit, set your SL at 10 pips of profit. You are more than welcome to accept the full SL (risk) and let the trade play out. SET IT AND FORGET IT. Take partials at structural pivot points (aka swing highs and swing lows) if you hold the winning trade longer than original TP! Happy trading! #HiddenWealthSociety #HWS
by KyleBFrederick
USD/JPY(20250526)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Fed's Goolsbee: 50% EU tariffs are an order of magnitude different from the current situation. Such a high tariff level will have a serious impact on the supply chain. In the short term, the Fed needs to wait for the situation to become clear, and the threshold for action is high before then. There is still a possibility of rate cuts in the next 10 to 16 months Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 143.04 Support and resistance levels: 144.77 144.12 143.70 142.37 141.95 141.30 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 143.04, consider buying, the first target price is 143.70 If the price breaks through 142.37, consider selling, the first target price is 141.95
Long
by CrazyInvestorTom
Long Entry Idea 📈 USD/JPY Weekly Swing Setup 🗓️ Bias: Long from Weekly Demand Zone 📍 Context: Price is approaching a higher-timeframe demand block with a strong reaction expected. Structure shows repeated sweeps and rejection near weekly EQ. Looking to catch the macro reversal from the lows before liquidity floods the upside. 🟦 ENTRY ZONE 141.300 – 140.900 Weekly demand + prior structural sweep + inside discount territory 🔻 STOP LOSS 139.700 Below major liquidity shelf + protected weekly low 🧨 Risk: ~160 pips 🛡 Use position sizing accordingly 🎯 TAKE PROFITS Target Price Reason TP1 143.951 High chance reclaim to minor resistance TP2 144.921 Weekly EQ zone TP3 146.178 Clean inefficiency + OB fill TP4 149.385 Final premium zone / supply 📌 Trade Narrative Looking for a long setup off weekly demand between 141.300–140.900. Expecting bullish reversal and liquidity run through prior highs. Structure is showing signs of exhaustion on the bearish leg, and weekly CHoCH zones have formed. TP1 holds ~80% probability as it aligns with daily inefficiency and structure. Remaining targets scale through unfilled FVGs into premium territory. 🧠 Risk-Reward SL: 139.700 Entry: 141.300 TP1: 143.951 → ~2.6R TP4: 149.385 → ~5R+
Long
by MillionaireMind717
Japan's Bond Market Crisis: A Global WarningIntroduction: The Shattering of an Illusion Japan’s government bond market, the world’s second-largest, has long been a cornerstone of global financial stability. With a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 260%, Japan’s fiscal structure has relied on a captive bond market, a compliant central bank, and a political system willing to defer fiscal reckoning. Yet, in May 2025, this delicately balanced system began to unravel. For two consecutive days, Japan’s 30-year and 40-year government bonds (JGBs) found no buyers, marking a historic collapse in confidence. The 20-year JGB auction recorded its weakest demand since 2012, with yields on 20-, 30-, and 40-year bonds soaring to multi-decade highs. This isn’t a minor market hiccup—it’s a structural breakdown with global implications. This article explores the causes, consequences, and global ramifications of Japan’s bond market crisis, positioning it as a warning for other heavily indebted nations, particularly the United States. We’ll examine the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) yield curve control (YCC) policy, the erosion of fiscal credibility, the unwinding of the yen carry trade, and the ripple effects on global bond markets, the US dollar, and gold as a safe-haven asset. By dissecting these dynamics, we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of why Japan’s crisis matters and how it could foreshadow a broader sovereign debt reckoning. The Anatomy of Japan’s Bond Market Breakdown A Captive Market Unravels Japan’s bond market has been a model of repression for decades. Domestic investors—pension funds, banks, and insurance companies—have been compelled to hold JGBs due to limited investment alternatives and cultural preferences for stability. The BoJ, holding 43.3% of JGBs as of January 2025, has underpinned this system through massive bond purchases, ensuring low yields even as debt ballooned to 1.35 quadrillion yen ($8.84 trillion). However, this captive market is no longer captive. The May 2025 auctions revealed a stark reality: investors are recoiling. The 20-year JGB auction saw a bid-to-cover ratio—the measure of demand—plummet to its lowest since 2012, with the spread between investor bids and government offers (the “tail”) reaching its worst level since 1987. Yields on 20-year bonds hit 2.555% (highest since 2000), 30-year bonds reached 3.185% (a record since 1999), and 40-year bonds surged to 3.635% (an all-time high). These spikes reflect a market no longer willing to absorb Japan’s debt at suppressed yields. The End of Yield Curve Control The BoJ’s yield curve control (YCC) policy, introduced in 2016, capped 10-year JGB yields to maintain low borrowing costs. By purchasing bonds en masse, the BoJ suppressed volatility and ensured market liquidity. However, as inflation rose above the BoJ’s 2% target (reaching 3.6% overall CPI in 2025), the central bank began tapering its purchases, signaling a shift from ultra-loose policy. This tapering has exposed the fragility of YCC. The long end of the yield curve—30- and 40-year bonds—is most sensitive to inflation and fiscal risk. As the BoJ steps back, market forces are driving yields higher, undermining the central bank’s control. The lack of buyers for super-long JGBs highlights a crisis of confidence in Japan’s fiscal sustainability, exacerbated by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s comparison of Japan’s fiscal state to Greece’s during its 2010 debt crisis. Fiscal Recklessness and Political Inertia Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio, at 263%, is among the highest globally. Decades of deficit spending, fueled by quantitative easing and political reluctance to implement austerity, have created a fiscal powder keg. Calls for consumption tax cuts ahead of the July 2025 upper house election further erode investor trust, as they signal increased borrowing without structural reforms. Prime Minister Ishiba’s resistance to these cuts has done little to restore confidence, as markets demand a credible path to fiscal balance. Global Implications: The Yen Carry Trade and Liquidity Shock The Collapse of the Yen Carry Trade The yen carry trade—borrowing in low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding foreign assets—has been a cornerstone of global liquidity since the 1990s. Japanese investors, seeking returns unavailable domestically, poured trillions into US Treasuries, emerging market bonds, and other assets. However, rising JGB yields are reversing this flow. As Japanese yields approach or exceed foreign yields (e.g., 30-year JGBs at 3.185% vs. US 30-year Treasuries at 5%), investors are repatriating capital, unwinding carry trades. This unwinding is a global margin call. Emerging markets, reliant on Japanese capital, face sudden outflows, increasing FX volatility. The yen’s strengthening, as capital returns to Japan, disrupts global currency markets. In the US, the Treasury market—dependent on foreign buyers like Japan—faces pressure as Japanese institutions sell or reduce purchases of US bonds. Echoes in the US Treasury Market The US is not immune. A recent 20-year Treasury auction saw weak demand, with primary dealers absorbing 17% of issuance—a sign of desperation. The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5.1%, reflecting rising borrowing costs. Moody’s downgrade of US debt to Aa1 from Aaa, citing a $36 trillion debt burden and unsustainable deficits, has amplified concerns. President Trump’s proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” reviving 2017 tax cuts, is projected to add $3.3 trillion to US debt by 2034, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 125%. With $9 trillion in US debt maturing within the next 12 months, the Treasury market faces a refinancing challenge of unprecedented scale. If foreign buyers, including Japanese institutions, step back, the US could face a structural demand breakdown, forcing higher yields and tightening financial conditions. The Sovereign Debt Crisis Blueprint Japan as the Fuse, US as the Bomb Japan’s bond market crisis is a blueprint for what could unfold in the US. Both nations share structural vulnerabilities: high debt-to-GDP ratios, reliance on central bank intervention, and political dysfunction. Japan’s breakdown demonstrates that even a captive market can rebel when trust erodes. The BoJ’s loss of control over the yield curve mirrors potential risks for the Federal Reserve, which faces rising long-end yields despite its efforts to manage expectations. The metaphor of Japan as the fuse and the US as the bomb is apt. Japan’s crisis is a warning shot, but the US—given its role as the world’s largest bond market ($51 trillion) and the dollar’s reserve currency status—represents a far larger systemic risk. A US debt crisis would disrupt global bond markets, equity valuations (e.g., the S&P 500’s recent wobble), and liquidity flows. The Role of Bond Vigilantes Bond vigilantes—investors who sell bonds to discipline profligate governments—are reawakening. In Japan, their absence from JGB auctions signals a rejection of fiscal recklessness. In the US, rising Treasury yields and weak auction demand suggest vigilantes are saddling up. Central banks’ ability to suppress yields is waning, exposing markets to the harsh reality of supply and demand. The US Dollar and Gold: A Shifting Landscape The Dollar’s Eroding Trust The US dollar’s dominance is not immediately threatened—neither the euro nor the renminbi offers a viable alternative due to fragmentation and control, respectively. However, self-inflicted wounds—fiscal recklessness, political gridlock, and the dollar’s weaponization in trade disputes—are eroding trust. A structural breakdown in Treasury demand, driven by Japan’s repatriation or global risk repricing, could push US borrowing costs higher, weakening the dollar’s appeal. Gold as a Judgment on Fiat Gold is resurging as a safe-haven asset amid this turmoil. Unlike sovereign bonds, gold offers no coupon, no intervention, and no deficits—it simply exists. As trust in central banks and fiat currencies falters, gold’s appeal grows. Bitcoin, another scarce asset, has hit $107,322, reflecting similar dynamics, but gold’s historical stability and lack of counterparty risk make it a preferred hedge. Analysts like Stack Hodler argue that central bank credibility is “shattering in real time,” driving demand for gold and other neutral assets. Conclusion: Preparing for the Exit Japan’s bond market breakdown is not an isolated event—it’s a warning for the global financial system. The BoJ’s loss of yield curve control, the collapse of the yen carry trade, and the erosion of fiscal credibility signal the end of an era of sovereign bond repression. The US, with its ballooning debt and reliance on foreign buyers, is on a similar trajectory. As trust in central planning wanes, capital will flee to assets like gold, which stand outside the fiat system. Investors must prepare an exit plan. Diversifying into gold, reducing exposure to long-dated bonds, and monitoring central bank actions are critical steps. Japan’s crisis is the fuse; the US could be the bomb. When trust in sovereign debt crumbles, the question isn’t whether the system will break—it’s how long until detonation. References Reuters: Japan's super-long bond yields soar to records as market frets about demand IndraStra: From Safe Haven to Fault Line: How Japan’s Bond Crisis Threatens Global Markets American Thinker: Bond Market Shock: Is a New Financial Crisis Looming? Wikipedia: National debt of Japan Wolf Street: Japan’s 30-Year and 40-Year Bonds Crater, Yields Spike @onechancefreedm: Japan Is the Fuse. The U.S. Is the Bomb @DarioCpx: The BOJ losing control of long-term JGB Yields
by RoadToAMillionClub
USDJPY: Weekly overviewHello Traders, US news could move this pair dramatically. I've made the white zone no trade because of strong additional zone around 148.225 for the bullish side and a sharp move needed to reach the zone. The zone around 142.892 is more suitable for short trades, regarding the trend and distance from median of the channel. This zone is only suitable for long if the break be strong enough to overpass the median of the channel. The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones. Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray. You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confrimation and ETC. SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings. TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels. ******************************************************************* Role of different zones: GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them. RED: Just Short trades allowed on them. BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them. WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
Short
by AliSignals
USDJPY 4HR Technical & Fundamental AnalysisUSDJPY 4H Technical & Fundamental Analysis The U.S. dollar has declined approximately 5% since April 2, influenced by: Fiscal Instability: Rising national debt and policy uncertainties have led to increased investor caution. Speculative Positions: Hedge funds have shifted to significant short positions on the dollar, reflecting bearish sentiment. Reuters 🔍 Technical Perspective On the 4H chart, USDJPY continues to display a bearish market structure, consistently printing lower highs and lower lows. We identified a minor key support at 143.700, which was recently broken—marking the beginning of institutional-level accumulation (sell orders). After this accumulation, liquidity was swept within the zone, suggesting that institutions were hunting stops before preparing for a downward distribution phase. Although the initial entry is now late, a potential retracement back into the minor key zone may offer a trading opportunity. 📍 Area of Interest (AOI): 143.550 🛡 Stop-Loss (Risk Perspective): 144.180 🎯 Target Profit (Structure-Based): Next minor support zone around 142.800 Meanwhile, rising bond yields in Japan have attracted institutional investors, challenging the popular carry trade strategy where traders borrow in yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies. (Source: Business Insider) Safe-Haven Demand: Ongoing geopolitical risks have led investors to seek refuge in traditional safe-haven currencies—especially the yen. (Source: BPF News) 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. As always, wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage your risk wisely and trade what you see, not what you feel.
Short
by RebornFXTrader
UPDATE ON USDJPY Buy Bias Analysis – May 2025Earlier this week, I maintained a bullish bias on USDJPY after the price reversed from the weekly demand zone at 139.901 on April 21, 2025, supported by bullish seasonality and strong institutional positioning. However, during the first three days of this week, USDJPY pulled back to around 142.814, moving below the initial point of interest. This short-term bearish move tested sentiment, but price has now reached a daily demand zone, where a bullish indecision candle is currently forming. This candle signals a potential shift in momentum, suggesting that the bulls may be regaining control. With the seasonal trend, institutional long positions, and a technical support zone aligning, the setup remains valid — only delayed. The Yen's recent strength, driven by its safe-haven appeal, is likely to fade as the USD begins to assert dominance once again. This sets the stage for a possible continuation of the broader bullish move. I maintain my buy bias on USDJPY, with a focus on price action confirmation at current levels. FOLLOW ME FOR WEEKLY BIAS.
Long
by CartoonForex
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 22, 2025 USDJPYEvents to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims 16:45 EET. USD - Services PMI USDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) demonstrated resilience by rebounding from an early decline during the Asian trading session. This recovery was largely influenced by positive machinery orders data from Japan, which effectively quashed recession fears and significantly bolstered expectations of an economic recovery. This occurred in anticipation of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) potentially raising interest rates again in 2025, which would have been a positive development for the JPY. Furthermore, flight to safety is identified as a contributing factor to the strengthening of the yen. The proposed tax bill introduced by US President Donald Trump has led to concerns regarding the financial stability of the US government. This, in addition to the resurgence of tensions between the US and China, is exerting downward pressure on global risk sentiment and prompting investors to seek refuge in traditional safe haven assets, including the yen. This, coupled with the prevailing US Dollar (USD) selling bias, has led to the USD/JPY pair reaching a two-week low, approaching the round figure of 143.00 on Thursday. Trade recommendation: SELL 143.100, SL 143.700, TP 142.350
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY - Potential Sell (Swing to long term Trade)Hi traders, This is a repost from my last analysis. We are still focusing to SELL CMCMARKETS:USDJPY Price Action Analysis: Weekly or higher Chart: Price seems to be slowing down and showing signs of turning to the downside. Buyers have tried several times to push up from the 140.0 level, but each time, sellers responded with more selling. It feels like sellers are still holding a lot of CMCMARKETS:USDJPY and are trying to offload it. Daily Chart: Price has been making new highs, which is actually a good sign for a potential sell-off. We’re watching to see if the daily chart shows signs of giving up. However, price is still in buyer territory, so we’re on standby for now. Lower time frame Chart: Timing for Entry Good Luck. "The most important investment you can make is in yourself." Warren Buffet
Short
by tarati.lorenzo
USD/JPY – Dow Theory Trend Test | Tight SL StrategyPair: USD/JPY Trend: Bearish (Confirmed Lower Highs & Lower Lows) Trade Type: Sell Stop Entry Price (EP): 143.365 Stop Loss (SL): 144.253 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 142.477 (1:1) Take Profit 2 (TP2): 141.589 (1:2) Lot Size: 0.16 Risk/Reward: Trade 1: Risk $100 / Reward $100 (1:1) Trade 2: Risk $100 / Reward $200 (1:2) Total Risk: $200 Total Reward: $300 🔍 Trade Idea Based on Dow Theory: According to Dow Theory, USD/JPY is in a confirmed downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. This setup captures a bearish continuation move if price breaks below the recent structure low. The Sell Stop entry ensures we only enter the market if bearish momentum resumes. We are using a clear structure-based stop loss and logical take profit levels aligned with market flow. ✅ Strategy Logic: Bearish Momentum: Trend is down — no guessing tops or bottoms Breakout Entry: Sell Stop entry avoids false moves in choppy markets Structure-Based SL/TP: Keeping trade clean and technical Split Trade: One conservative TP, one extended for trend ride 📌 Note: This trade is designed to capture a breakout in alignment with the current downtrend. Using smart risk control and proper trade sizing makes this setup scalable. #USDJPY #BearishTrend #DowTheory #PriceAction #ForexSetup #SmartTrading #BreakoutTrade #SellStop #RiskReward #ForexSignals #TechnicalTrading #ChartPatterns
Short
by asimafridi