The market will maintain its bearish guard.Risk Management Notes:
Risk only 1-2% of total capital on this trade
Signal valid for 3-5 trading days
Invalidation point: Price closing above 145.500 on 4H timeframe
JPYUSD trade ideas
Technical Analysis Report: Trading GBP/USDThis technical analysis report focuses on the GBP/USD currency pair, also known as "Cable," which represents the British pound against the US dollar. The report provides an overview of current market conditions, key technical indicators, and trading strategies based on general technical principles and recent market insights up to May 20, 2025. Since specific real-time price data for this date is not available, the analysis uses historical patterns, plausible price levels based on recent trends, and macroeconomic factors influencing GBP/USD. Traders should verify current price levels on their platforms.
1. Market Overview
The GBP/USD pair is influenced by monetary policies from the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), economic data (e.g., UK CPI, US Non-Farm Payrolls), and global risk sentiment. Key factors as of May 20, 2025,
include:
Bank of England Policy: The BoE's stance on interest rates (hawkish or dovish) impacts GBP strength. Persistent UK inflation could support GBP, while signs of economic slowdown may weaken it.
Federal Reserve Policy: Fed rate decisions and US economic data drive USD strength. A hawkish Fed could pressure GBP/USD downward, while a dovish stance may support a GBP rally.
Brexit and Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing UK-EU trade dynamics or geopolitical events may introduce volatility.
Recent Sentiment: Posts on X suggest GBP/USD has been range-bound in early 2025, with traders eyeing UK economic recovery versus US dollar strength.
2. Technical Analysis
The analysis focuses on the daily (D1) and 4-hour (H4) timeframes for GBP/USD, using common technical indicators and price levels derived from historical ranges (e.g., 2023-2024 data) and hypothetical levels for 2025.
Price Action and Trend Analysis
Long-Term Trend (Daily Timeframe):
GBP/USD has historically fluctuated between 1.2000 and 1.4000, with significant support around 1.2500 and resistance near 1.3500-1.3600 (based on 2023-2024 levels).
Recent X posts indicate GBP/USD may be consolidating in a range (e.g., 1.2600-1.3200) after volatility in 2024 driven by Fed and BoE policy divergence.
A breakout above 1.3200 could signal a bullish trend, while a drop below 1.2600 may indicate bearish momentum.
Short-Term Trend (H4 Timeframe):
Intraday price action may show choppy movements within the daily range, with volatility around economic releases (e.g., UK CPI, US FOMC).
Look for higher highs/higher lows (bullish) or lower highs/lower lows (bearish) to confirm short-term direction.
b. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Based on historical levels and Fibonacci retracement analysis (applied to a hypothetical 2024 high of 1.3400 and low of 1.2400):
Resistance:
1.3200: Recent swing high and psychological level.
1.3500: Strong historical resistance (2023-2024 highs).
Support:
1.2600: Psychological level and recent swing low.
1.2400: Major support zone from 2023-2024.
Fibonacci Levels:
38.2% retracement: ~1.2800
50% retracement: ~1.2900
61.8% retracement: ~1.3000
c. Technical Indicators
Moving Averages:
50-day and 200-day SMA: A bullish crossover (50-day above 200-day) signals upward momentum, while a bearish crossover indicates weakness.
Current setup: If GBP/USD is trading above both SMAs (e.g., ~1.2900), it suggests bullish bias; below both, bearish. Price near the 50-day SMA may act as dynamic support/resistance.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
RSI on the daily chart: Readings above 70 (overbought) suggest a potential pullback; below 30 (oversold) indicates a possible bounce.
Current estimate: RSI near 50 suggests consolidation. Watch for divergences (e.g., price making higher highs but RSI lower highs) for reversal signals.
MACD:
Bullish signal: MACD line crossing above the signal line with a positive histogram.
Bearish signal: MACD line crossing below the signal line.
Current estimate: A flat MACD near the zero line aligns with range-bound price action.
Bollinger Bands:
Price near the upper band (~1.3200) signals potential overbought conditions (sell opportunity); near the lower band (~1.2600) suggests oversold conditions (buy opportunity).
A Bollinger Band squeeze indicates low volatility and a potential breakout.
d. Chart Patterns
Potential Patterns:
Double Top/Bottom: A double top near 1.3200 could signal a bearish reversal; a double bottom near 1.2600 suggests a bullish reversal.
Symmetrical Triangle: Consolidation between 1.2600-1.3200 may form a triangle, with a breakout direction driven by macroeconomic catalysts.
Confirm patterns with high volume and candlestick confirmation (e.g., engulfing patterns).
3. Trading Strategies
Below are two strategies tailored to the current GBP/USD setup, adaptable to bullish or bearish scenarios.
a. Breakout Strategy (Bullish/Bearish)
Setup: Wait for a breakout above resistance (1.3200) or below support (1.2600) on the daily chart, confirmed by a strong close and increased volume.
Entry:
Bullish: Enter long on a daily close above 1.3200, ideally with a retest of the breakout level.
Bearish: Enter short on a daily close below 1.2600, with a retest.
Stop-Loss:
Bullish: Below the breakout candle’s low or 1.3150.
Bearish: Above the breakout candle’s high or 1.2650.
Take-Profit:
Bullish: Target 1.3400 or 1.3500.
Bearish: Target 1.2400 or 1.2300.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for at least 1:2 (e.g., risk 50 pips to gain 100 pips).
b. Range-Bound Strategy
Setup: If GBP/USD is consolidating between 1.2600-1.3200, trade the range using support/resistance.
Entry:
Buy near support (1.2600-1.2650) when RSI is oversold (<30) and a bullish reversal candlestick forms (e.g., hammer).
Sell near resistance (1.3150-1.3200) when RSI is overbought (>70) and a bearish candlestick appears (e.g., shooting star).
Stop-Loss:
Buy: Below support (e.g., 1.2550).
Sell: Above resistance (e.g., 1.3250).
Take-Profit:
Buy: Near resistance (1.3100-1.3200).
Sell: Near support (1.2650-1.2700).
Risk-Reward Ratio: Target 1:1.5 or better.
4. Risk Management
Position Sizing: Risk 1-2% of account capital per trade (e.g., $100-$200 on a $10,000 account).
Stop-Loss: Always use a stop-loss, placed beyond key support/resistance levels to account for volatility.
Leverage: Use low leverage (e.g., 1:10) to manage GBP/USD’s volatility, especially around news events.
News Events: Avoid trading during high-impact releases (e.g., BoE/Fed meetings, UK CPI, US NFP) or widen stop-losses to account for volatility.
5. Macro Considerations and Catalysts
Bullish GBP/USD Catalysts:
Hawkish BoE signals (rate hikes or delayed cuts).
Strong UK economic data (e.g., robust GDP, low unemployment).
Dovish Fed policy weakening the USD.
Bearish GBP/USD Catalysts:
Hawkish Fed signals (higher US rates or yields).
Weak UK economic data (e.g., rising inflation with slowing growth).
Risk-off sentiment boosting USD as a safe haven.
USD/JPY📊 USD/JPY Long Scenario – Current Market Context
Today, we witnessed a significant absorption of the bearish move that started with the impulse on May 13th. After a period of weakness and gradual price decline, the early hours of today's session showed a strong reaction, with price managing to reclaim the key price-time levels at 144.86 and 144.81.
This movement marks a short-term structural break, indicating a potential market intention to at least temporarily reverse direction and recover some of the losses from the previous bearish leg.
📈 Trade Idea
If price manages to close above the 144.86 and 144.81 levels by the end of the day, I would consider a short-term long entry, targeting a retest of the previous distribution phase around the 145.83 area — the point from which the May 13th impulse originated.
🎯 Target: 145.83 (distribution zone)
🛡️ Stop Loss: 144.41 (a strong and well-defended level)
⏳ Validation: Daily close above the mentioned levels
📌 Final Thoughts
This scenario is based on a price-time reading consistent with institutional market behavior: a sharp reclaim of key levels following a downside overshoot often precedes a broader corrective move, especially if confirmed by a strong daily close.
Let me know if you’d like a version for your trading journal or a more detailed trade plan. Catch you next time! 👋📉📈
USDJPY Outlook: Weekly Bearish Bias Despite Temporary RebalanceGreetings Traders,
It's the start of a new trading week, and our focus is on the Gopher — CAPITALCOM:USDJPY .
Weekly Overview: Temporary Rebalance, Bearish Tone Intact
On the weekly chart, USDJPY pushed higher to rebalance a Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 149.30 and 148.26. Following this, price was swiftly rejected, forming a shooting star candlestick — a classic sign of potential bearish continuation.
However, for this bearish outlook to remain valid, 146.250 must hold as resistance. A sustained break above this level could invalidate the current bias and signal the possibility of further upside.
Daily Chart: Downside Pressure Builds
Looking at the daily timeframe, we see a sequence of down-close candles, indicating consistent selling pressure. I expect price to continue pushing lower, targeting the FVG below, with a potential sweep of sell-side liquidity resting under recent lows.
Trading Plan: Bearish Setup
Unless disrupted by high-impact fundamentals, I’ll be favouring short positions this week. My planned setup is as follows:
Entry: On confirmation within the 145.63 zone
Stop Loss: Above 145.97
Target Zones: Around 144.430
I’ll monitor price reaction closely at key levels to manage the trade accordingly.
USDJPY Ready to Explode? Watch These Key Levels!
USDJPY is sitting at a major turning point on the 4H chart.
Key Zones:
Demand Zone: 140.900 - 141.500 — Price has bounced strongly from this level multiple times. Bulls are watching!
Immediate Resistance: 150.400 — A break above here could open the door to a retest of 158.500.
Supply Zone: 156.000 - 158.500 — Heavy selling pressure lives here.
Current Price: 144.52
Bias: Bullish above 140.900
Targets:
1. Short-Term: 150.400
2. Long-Term: 158.500
Chart Tools: LuxAlgo Supply & Demand Visible Range
Timeframe: 4H (Swing/Position Traders take note!)
If price holds above the demand zone and breaks 150.4, bulls may aim for the 158+ level. Keep an eye on volume and price action at the resistance zones!
What’s your take? Will USDJPY shoot up or drop again? Comment below!
#USDJPY #Forex #SwingTrading #JPY #TechnicalAnalysis #LuxAlgo #PriceAction #DemandZone #SupplyZone #ForexTrader #TradingView
Hello to USDJPY(1H) <>:-)Very simple or a clear signal.It means if you see the price comes almost mentioned resistance It's time to sell and obtain some profit
Usdjpy 20 May 2025Price reached bottom of downtrend channel, should see a bounce and move back up to test the upper channel, if break and closed above, we will see another retest of the recent high around 148-149 region
Yen Steadies on US Credit DowngradeThe Japanese yen held firm near 144 per dollar, marking its fourth straight session of gains, bolstered by a weaker US dollar in the wake of Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating. The move, prompted by fiscal concerns and rising deficits, dented dollar confidence globally.
Despite this, Japan’s own economic data weighed on sentiment, with GDP shrinking by 0.2% in Q1, its first contraction in a year and worse than anticipated. Investors are also closely watching the upcoming Japanese trade data with concerns about the impact of potential new US tariffs. A third round of US-Japan trade talks is set to begin in Washington by the end of the week, led by Japan’s chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa.
USD/JPY faces immediate resistance at 148.60, with higher levels at 149.80 and 151.20. Key support is seen at 139.70, followed by 137.00 and 135.00.
USDJPY BUYPrice fill the gap after the retrace. i expect the price move to the upside.
Entry 145.86
tp 148.60
sl 144.47
USDJPY? recap
Made a call 145.000
Now 144.200
It did went up.. but 145.000 cannot stand pressure
IN THE NEWS
Finance Minister talked about possible increase in rates in the +ve territory
Note the word POSSIBLE
Speculation started since then.. next coming months we'll have stronger YEN.
My 2c point: Market moves on SPECULATION ; especially by head of government/governor speeches.
All the best
Not a guru
USD/JPY Price Action Update – May 20, 2025📊 USD/JPY Price Action Update – May 20, 2025
🔹Current Price: 144.832
🔹Timeframe: 15M
📌 Key Demand Zone:
🟢 144.650–144.750 – High-interest buy zone; multiple rejections with strong wick reactions, showing demand buildup.
📈 Potential Bullish Scenario:
🔸 If price holds above 144.750 and breaks 145.350 with volume, clean upside to 146.021 is on the table
🔸 Liquidity resting above previous highs – ideal for a liquidity sweep entry
📉 Risk Scenario:
🔸 If price closes below 144.650 on 15M with strong bearish momentum, intraday structure may shift bearish
🔍 FXFOREVER Insight:
✅ Intraday structure remains bullish above demand
✅ Look for CHoCH or BOS on 5M before early entry
✅ Set alerts near 145.35 for breakout continuation
#USDJPY #ForexUpdate #PriceAction #DemandZone #SmartMoney #LiquiditySweep #FXFOREVER #BreakoutPlan #ScalpingFX
USDJPY – Short Setups ActivatedUSDJPY – Short Setups Activated
🔻 Bearish Bias | ⏳ 15-Min Chart
• Entry: Market is open and I’m already in at ~144.88
• Targets: 1️⃣ 144.86363 (first reaction) → 2️⃣ 145.11192 (full fill)
• Hold horizon: ~1 week
Price stalled at the 145.15554–145.46188 zone and rolled over into our sell area. If you plan to join, be prepared to hold through the week for a complete move lower.
⚠️ Not financial advice – trade your own plan.
#USDJPY #Forex #ShortSetup #SwingTrade #TradingView
USD/JPY - A trendline break on the 4 hour will signal bearish
On the weekly, the USD/JPY has a strong level of support in which price has touched 3 times and reversed. A failed head and shoulders reversal pattern can be seen on the third touch of this strong support. Price is right now forming the beginnings of a descending triangle which signals a break on the downside once the pattern is complete. However, there is a possibility for triangles to turn into rectangles when given enough time so what appears to be the beginnings of a descending triangle could turn into a rally upward to complete the formation of a rectangle.
On the 4 hour, a two touch point trendline can be observed. The long term trend on the weekly is not assisting us in determining what the trend is. The short term trend is currently upward and is being supported by this trendline. Until there is a decisive break below the trendline and a retest of the line, the current sentiment is to remain in long positions and place stops an adequate distance below the line.
USDJPY – Long Target in SightUSDJPY – Long Target in Sight
🟢 Long Bias | 🎯 Target: 145.46188 → 145.63300 (4H) | ⏳ Intraday Outlook
Already in this trade. Looking for price to make its way up toward 145.46188, with a potential extension to the 4H level at 145.63300. Market structure shows room for continuation.
If you plan to join, know this could play out over next 12 hours or so.
This is not financial advice.
💡 Replay this setup on TradingView to study how it develops.
#USDJPY #ForexSetup #LongTrade #TradingView #GlobalHorns #PriceAction
USD/JPY Pivotal areaUSD/JPY is at a Pivotal area providing support for the pair , If it holds this area we could target furthur upside with rge shown targets.
However a break below could send the pair towards the lower targets as shown.
JPY short play FX:USDJPY looking at the 4h,1h and DXY this play will properly take a while to hit.
JPY seem bearish and will go down just a matter of time if the dollar keeps dropping.
USDJPY Technicals Price reacting near a key horizontal support level just below 145.00, where a visible bounce is attempting to form. This level has been tested multiple times, establishing it as a reliable demand zone, and price is now trying to stabilize after a sharp drop from the 146.20s. The recent move downward followed a failed bullish breakout attempt near a local resistance (highlighted with a red circle), which then turned into a supply zone around 145.70–145.80. That area has since capped further upside, resulting in a sell-off.
At current levels, there's a combination of technical signals suggesting a potential reversal or at least a short-term bounce. First, price has reached a structurally important area where previous buying interest was observed. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 30-minute chart shows values around 38–40, indicating the market is entering oversold territory without being extremely extended, which often aligns with corrective moves or base formations.
Volume analysis also supports the reversal idea. The recent bearish candles approaching the 145.00 support zone show decreasing bearish volume, followed by a slight uptick in buying pressure (as shown by the magenta lightning bolt icon), hinting at potential absorption of selling pressure and the beginning of buyer interest. This could mark the end of the down leg and the start of a higher low structure.
The projected path drawn on the chart suggests a bullish recovery scenario where price reclaims the mid-145s, retests prior minor resistance levels, and attempts to push toward the 146.00 handle again. However, this move is only valid if price holds above the current support. A breakdown below 144.90 would invalidate this idea and may lead to deeper downside.
In summary, the setup favors a bullish reversal off support, aided by RSI recovering from oversold conditions, a slowdown in bearish momentum, and historical support alignment. That said, price action confirmation (like bullish engulfing or a strong reclaim candle) is necessary to initiate a long position with tighter risk below the support base.
USDJPYAgain, the floor, ceiling, and midline channel pattern works in all timeframes. This analysis works.
USDJPY Trade Plan – May 19Price approaching key demand zone — 3 setups locked in: 👇
🟢 1st Buy Entry
📍 Entry: 144.099
🎯 TP: 144.507
🛑 SL: 143.978
📈 R:R ≈ 3.38
🔹 Quick scalp from zone top -Look for bullish 15M reaction
🟢 2nd Buy Entry
📍 Entry: 143.755
🎯 TP: 144.531
🛑 SL: 143.602
📈 R:R ≈ 5.05
🔹 Stronger level — better risk-reward for continuation bounce( this will be HIT or MISS/SL)
🔴 Breakout Sell Plan
📍 Entry: 143.669
🎯 TP: 142.844
🛑 SL: 143.871
📈 R:R ≈ 4.09
⚠️ Only valid if price breaks zone with full-bodied follow-through candle
⏱️ Let market come to you. This can happen in next 1-2 days or Tonight.
USD/JPY Breakdown: Sell the Rallies, Ride the TrendUSD/JPY has decisively shifted bearish across all key timeframes. On the daily chart, the pair broke below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs with consistent lower highs and lows. The hourly chart confirms this trend, with bearish EMA stacking and failed attempts to reclaim the 200-hour EMA. RSI remains under 50 across timeframes, signaling persistent bearish momentum without exhaustion.
The 15-minute chart highlights ideal short-entry setups on pullbacks to the 20- or 50-EMA, especially when RSI fails to breach 50. The 200-EMA on this timeframe acts as dynamic resistance near 145.30. Short entries are favorable on rallies to the 145.10–145.35 zone, with downside targets at 144.80, 144.50, and potentially 144.20.
For the week ahead, the strategy is clear: fade rallies into EMA resistance and use RSI confirmation for timing. Avoid chasing lows—wait for price to come to you. Tight stops just above the EMAs minimize risk, and partial profit-taking at swing lows allows for trend-riding flexibility.
As long as USD/JPY remains below the 200-hour EMA, bearish momentum dominates. Trade with the trend, manage risk with precision, and stay alert for breakdowns below key support levels.
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 19, 2025 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair attracted new sellers on Monday and fell to a one-week low of around 144.800 during the Asian session. Furthermore, the current economic climate suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside, which supports the prospects for a continuation of the recent corrective decline from the nearly six-week high reached last Monday.
It is widely anticipated that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again in 2025, a development that is expected to continue providing support to the Japanese Yen (JPY). Furthermore, the unexpected downgrade of the US government's credit rating is discouraging investors from taking risks and is instead favouring traditional safe-haven assets, including the Japanese Yen. On Friday, Moody's downgraded America's main sovereign credit rating by one notch, to 'Aa1', citing concerns over the country's rising debt.
Meanwhile, investors seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to cut rates amid signs of weakening inflation and the likelihood that the US economy will see several quarters of sluggish growth. At the start of the new week, the US Dollar remains depressed and exerts additional downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. However, the lack of follow-through selling below the psychological 145.00 mark is forcing bears to exercise caution before positioning themselves for deeper losses.
On Monday, the US will not release any market-moving economic data, so the dollar will be influenced by speeches by influential FOMC members. Furthermore, an improvement in risk sentiment is likely to result in increased demand for the Japanese Yen, thereby providing some momentum to the USD/JPY pair. However, the diverging policy expectations of the BoJ and the FOMC confirm the negative outlook for the near term. Consequently, any recovery attempt could be perceived as a strategic opportunity for divestment, and is likely to be constrained.
Trade recommendation: SELL 144.700, SL 145.500, TP 143.800
USD/JPY: Bears Gearing Up !!After sweeping liquidity and reacting off a weekly FVG zone, USD/JPY is showing signs of weakness. Price is currently respecting a trendline, but structure looks heavy with bearish pressure building.
A break below the trendline could confirm a deeper correction.
📉 TP1: 143.481
📉 TP2: 141.963
📌 (Not financial advice)
#USDJPY #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #LiquiditySweep #TrendlineBreak #JPY #DollarYen #FXTrading #SmartMoneyConcepts
