JPYUSD trade ideas
USDJPY analysis week 21Fundamental Analysis
USD/JPY recovered slightly on Friday as the USD recovered and traded sideways around the DXY index level of 100.80.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened despite a decline in Japan's GDP, due to its safe-haven status and expectations that the BOJ will not raise interest rates soon.
The BOJ kept interest rates at 0.5%, lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and may pause interest rate hikes until September to monitor the impact of US tariffs.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, no plans to cut in the near term. The Fed Chairman warned that tariffs could increase inflation and reduce growth.
Technical Analysis
USDJPY is reacting at the 89 EMA. Overall, the uptrend is still maintained for this pair and pay attention to the immediate support level of 144,000, while the pair is still trading above this area, the uptrend is still continuing. The two resistance levels that the pair could reach next week are noted at 147.500 and 148.300. In case the 144.000 trend zone is broken, the pair's slide will be supported by the May low around 142.600.
USDJPY H4USDJPY Buy Opportunity
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USD/JPY H8 AnalysisSince entering weekly support at 140.00 in April, we have seen a steady series of higher highs and lows (buyers in charge).
The MACD suggests that the bullish momentum is still strong with the peaks also making higher highs.
Price is approaching the current trendline and we may see buying resume again soon.
This is an idea of what may happen.
Always trade with a profitable strategy and good risk management.
Price broken above the swing low for a reversal. USDJPYSo I can see price and risen above the low which tells me a strong buy sentiment is coming. Wait for retracement to take out the imbalance and test trend line and support line. After which it should reverse and go up. Taking it to the previous high and area of resistance. Let's see how this plays out next week!
USD/JPY(20250516)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Fed Chairman Powell: The Fed is adjusting its overall policy-making framework. Zero interest rate is no longer a basic situation. The wording of underemployment and average inflation rate needs to be reconsidered. PCE is expected to drop to 2.2% in April.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
145.93
Support and resistance levels:
147.26
146.77
146.44
145.42
145.10
144.61
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 145.93, consider buying, the first target price is 146.44
If the price breaks through 145.42, consider selling, the first target price is 145.10
Yen Strengthens Despite Japan’s Q1 ContractionThe Japanese yen strengthened toward 145 per dollar, extending its rally for a fourth straight day, despite Japan’s economy shrinking by 0.2% in the first quarter, worse than forecasts. While the Bank of Japan acknowledged the risks posed by U.S. trade policies, it remains confident that rising wages and prices will support eventual policy normalization. Investors are closely watching U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, with Japan insisting that any deal must include the auto sector and that the 25% U.S. tariff on Japanese cars be removed.
Resistance is noted at 148.60, with further barriers at 149.80 and 151.20. Major support levels lie at 139.70, 137.00, and 135.00.
USDJPY Repriced for a Better Short OpportunityIn my initial trade shared during the Asian session, USDJPY swept the sell-side liquidity and formed a clear Fair Value Gap (FVG). Price action has now provided a refined entry point for a continuation short setup.
The recent liquidity sweep, followed by displacement, suggests that the market may aim for the recent low — with the potential to push even further if bearish momentum continues. My short position is now aligned with this structure, and I’ll be watching closely for signs of continuation or rejection near key support levels.
USDJPY Short: Continue Wave 3 downThis is an update to the original USDJPY short idea posted 2 days back. We have completed wave 1 and wave 2 and is currently on wave 3. There is a break of a trendline that helps confirm our wave 3 hypothesis.
The initial target remains the same at around $140. However, the stop loss is now lowered to 147.20, above wave 2 high.
Good luck!
USD/JPY H4 | Overlap resistance at 23.6% Fibonacci retracementUSD/JPY is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 145.82 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 147.11 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 144.16 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
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USDJPY – 4hr Breakdown – May 16USDJPY has pulled back, filled the Sunday gap, and is now approaching the bottom of the bullish channel we’ve been monitoring.
🔹 Main interest is at 144.767 — key level to look for long entries
🔹 If this support holds, we can expect a swing move to form a new higher high, giving us potential for ~500 pips
🔹 No sell positions unless we break the structure with a close below 143.802
🔹 If that happens, 142.00 becomes the first target
This remains a structure-led swing setup — patience is key until confirmation shows.
Bearish USD/JPY — Yen Strength FavoredCMCMARKETS:USDJPY Bearish Factors (USD Negative / JPY Positive):
Hawkish BoJ Expectations:
Despite Japan’s weaker Q1 GDP, BoJ officials—particularly Deputy Governor Uchida—have signalled openness to resuming rate hikes in 2025. A Reuters survey suggests a potential 25bps hike before year-end. This divergence from the Fed’s stance supports JPY strength.
Dovish Fed Outlook Intensifies:
Weak U.S. April PPI and retail sales figures reinforce expectations for multiple rate cuts this year. Falling Treasury yields and soft inflation readings weigh heavily on the dollar.
Resistance : 146.75 , 145.87
Support : 144.91 , 143.52
BUY USDJPYThe pair
D1= is creating HH/HL
We waited to reach at the point of at least HL (it has reached 50 level of Fib in a 1D
If we observe fundamentally; yesterday the news pushed down the USD to accomplish the filling of the opening gap for this week.
Today at 0000+hrs the JPY has announced negative news to them.
The signal given is giving the probability of reversing to the upside.
Let us see the way it will behave.