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USDJPY Analysis for 24/10/2024: A Slightly Bearish Bias AheadAs we analyze the USDJPY currency pair on October 24, 2024, current market conditions and fundamental factors suggest a slightly bearish bias. This article delves into the key drivers influencing this outlook, allowing traders to make informed decisions in this dynamic market environment. Current Market Conditions The USDJPY pair has shown a mixed performance recently, with fluctuations influenced by both U.S. economic data and developments in Japan. Traders are closely watching for signals that could dictate the pair’s movement, particularly as we approach critical economic indicators. Key Fundamental Drivers 1. U.S. Economic Data: Recent economic data from the U.S. has been a mixed bag. While there have been positive signs in job growth and consumer spending, inflation remains a concern. The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates continues to be cautious, signaling that any aggressive rate hikes may not be imminent. This dovish sentiment can weigh on the U.S. dollar, creating a bearish outlook for USDJPY. 2. Japanese Economic Performance: Japan's economy is showing signs of resilience, with recent data indicating stronger-than-expected growth. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its accommodative monetary policy, but there are discussions about potential adjustments in response to rising inflation. Should the BoJ signal a shift towards tightening, this could support the Japanese yen and contribute to a bearish trend in USDJPY. 3. Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty can lead to safe-haven buying of the yen. Any escalation in conflicts or adverse developments in trade relations may strengthen the yen further, enhancing its appeal against the U.S. dollar. 4. Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators: Sentiment in the forex market is essential. Currently, there is cautious optimism among traders regarding the yen due to the previously mentioned economic performance indicators. Additionally, technical analysis reveals that USDJPY is nearing resistance levels, suggesting a potential reversal. If the pair fails to breach these levels, it may retreat, reinforcing a bearish bias. Conclusion Considering the current fundamental factors and market conditions, the outlook for USDJPY remains slightly bearish for today. Traders should monitor upcoming U.S. economic data releases and any announcements from the Bank of Japan that could further impact this currency pair. Keywords: USDJPY analysis, bearish bias, forex market, U.S. economic data, Bank of Japan, Japanese yen, geopolitical tensions, market sentiment, technical analysis.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
#USDJPYElliott Wave Structure: The chart indicates the completion of a 5-wave Elliott Wave pattern, with a corrective ABC pattern potentially unfolding. The current price is near the B-wave completion, suggesting that a downward C-wave may follow. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The price is nearing significant Fibonacci retracement levels (61.8% and 78.6%), which often act as strong resistance areas. This suggests that the price may struggle to push higher, increasing the probability of a downward move. Bearish Momentum: The projected red arrow implies an expectation of bearish momentum, with the price potentially making a lower low after retesting the 78.6% level, indicating a potential selling opportunity. Risk-to-Reward Opportunity: With the price near a resistance zone and clear downside targets indicated, the risk-to-reward ratio could be favorable for a short position, especially if price confirms a reversal at the current levels. This analysis suggests that a short position could be justified based on the technical setup, but as always, risk management and confirmation of signals are essential before entering a trade.
Short
by TheRealHawk
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upAfter an 8-week break from USD/JPY, I’m excited to bring it back to our watchlist as we prepare for next week’s trading! Over the past 9 months, this pair has experienced major shifts—from early-year expectations of Japan's monetary policy changes to the dollar's surge mid-year and the USD/JPY oscillating around the 150 zone in October. Key drivers include Japan's inflation data, with the latest CPI rising 2.5% YoY in September. As market rumours of another intervention grow, what opportunities lie ahead? Let's explore the key levels, trends, and setups for the coming week. USDJPY Technical Analysis: As discussed in the video, the recent upward momentum is showing signs of easing, leaving room for a possible USD pullback. However, for a confirmed uptrend continuation, we need to see sustained trading above 150.000. Our detailed technical analysis focused on the current bullish market structure, with particular attention to the key level of 150.000, set as a pivotal point for the upcoming week. This level gains significance as a potential catalyst for a clear uptrend if buying pressure persists. The market's response to this level at the beginning of the new week will strongly influence the direction of price action in the days ahead. #JapanInflation #USDJPY #Yen #BoJ #FederalReserve #Forex #CurrencyTrading #EconomicAnalysis #MarketAnalysis #Investing #Finance
by darcsherry
DeGRAM | USDJPY trend growthUSDJPY is moving in an ascending channel between the trend lines. The price is under the resistance level, to which it reacted with a decline. The chart is moving from the lower trend line and has already touched the upper boundary of the channel. We expect a correction after the retest of the upper trend line. We believe that before that the price may fall to the lower boundary of the channel. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Short
by DeGRAM
2
Alternative Risk Management Strategies (Taboo!)Professional and highly experienced traders who choose to trade without traditional stop-loss orders often adopt alternative risk management strategies that offer a ton of advantages. While this approach may not be suitable for all of you, it can be beneficial for those who have developed strong risk management skills and are capable of effectively managing their positions. I have been trading with a non-mainstream approach for over 10 years and would never, ever... ever go back to using traditional stop losses. My net gains generation did not start moving in the right direction until I made the change. Here are my thoughts, but take note that there ARE emergency stops placed at the portfolio level at key thresholds regardless of individual asset management plans. 1️⃣ Flexibility in Position Sizing: Without a fixed stop-loss level, I have the flexibility to adjust my position sizes based on market conditions and their risk tolerance. This allows me to take advantage of favorable opportunities while limiting exposure during uncertain or volatile periods. Trading small positions within a single trade is the secret to scaling in. 2️⃣ Avoiding Stop Runs: I may prefer not to use traditional stop-loss orders to avoid getting stopped out during short-term market fluctuations or stop runs by large institutional players. By relying on your own risk management techniques, you can maintain control over your positions, especially if you have a well crafted plan to work out of the trade in the event that you are wrong. 3️⃣ Reducing Order Book Impact: Placing visible stop-loss orders can sometimes lead to order book impact, causing market movements that trigger these stops. I may choose alternative risk management methods to avoid contributing to such market moves and getting constantly stopped out regardless of a solid trade idea. 4️⃣ Long-Term Trading Perspective: I often adopt alternative risk management to take a more long-term view of my positions. I have a higher tolerance for short-term drawdowns because I believe in the long-term potential of my trades and I trust my ability to exit them. Having said that, I stick to my drawdown thresholds, which are part of my business plan. My entire portfolio rebalancing actions revolve around managing drawdown. So after trading small relative to equity, this is rule number 2. 5️⃣ Dynamic Risk Management: I can use dynamic risk management techniques, such as trailing stops or scaling out of positions, to protect profits and manage risk effectively. I place trailing in the money stops, take gains prior to target if needed when I spot something fishy and I can reload if I get a price improvement. Every trade... every position within a trade is treated individually too, with its own set of circumstances and conditions. 6️⃣ Selective Stop Placement: Rather than relying on fixed stop-loss levels, I may use critical support/resistance levels, technical indicators or simple sentiment bias to determine exit points, allowing for more selective and informed decisions. 7️⃣ Hedging and Damage Control Strategies: Advanced traders might employ hedging or options strategies to protect against adverse market movements, providing an alternative risk management approach. I use a methodology we call Damage Control, which allows for advanced management of positions and the portfolio as a whole using simple hedging, portfolio level hedging and rebalancing, advanced intra/inter asset hedging, net gains washing and much, much more. Trading without stops requires a deep understanding of risk management and a disciplined trading approach. It is a controversial subject on #fintwit (or is it #finX now) because the mainstream influencers preach stops as if they were the only way to trade. In my case, stop trading at the beginning of my career was the right thing to do as I was learning, but ended up being an impediment rather than an advantage and after having honed my skills over years of experience, I found alternative risk management strategies and a comprehensive business/trading plan the way to success. 10 years of it. 💡
Education
by AlexSoro
USDJPY with two probabilities for 10/24/2024USDJPY with a high probability to make the decision for 10/24/2024 ✅️ : 🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss. 🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.
Short
by Abderrahmane_24
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?USD/JPY is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 152.52 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 154.94 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 150.85 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 621.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDJPY Skyrockets Beyond All Targets – Massive Breakout CompleteTechnical Analysis: USDJPY on the 15-minute time frame executed a long trade with an entry at 149.604. Backed by strong bullish momentum, it swiftly met all target points. The pair rallied significantly with the Risological Dotted Trendline providing upward support throughout the trade, indicating that the trend was well-supported and poised for further gains. Key Levels: Entry: 149.604 Stop Loss (SL): 149.342 Target 1 (TP1): 149.926 ✅ Target 2 (TP2): 150.449 ✅ Target 3 (TP3): 150.971 ✅ Target 4 (TP4): 151.294 ✅ Observations: The strong uptrend was consistent, with price respecting the 200 EMA (Risological Dotted Trendline) as dynamic support.Volume surged as the price hit TP3, accelerating the move towards TP4. All targets were cleanly hit, confirming the strength of this breakout. USDJPY's breakout showcases the power of technical alignment. The bullish trend held firmly above the Risological dotted trend line, driving the price to hit all targets in this well-timed trade. The pair remains bullish, and future setups should be monitored for additional opportunities.
Long
by ProfitsNinja
Yen slides as IMF cuts Japan’s growth estimateThe Japanese yen has posted sharp losses on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 152.67, up 1.06% at the time of writing. The yen is down 2.1% this week and has plunged 6.3% in October. The International Monetary Fund slashed its 2024 growth forecast for Japan to just 0.3%, down sharply from the 0.7% forecast in June. This is the lowest estimate since 2020, during the Covid-19 pandemic which severely impacted the economy. The IMF highlighted the “fading of a one-off boost” in tourism and disruptions in auto supply chains. Japan’s economy grew 1.7% in 2023, aided by a strong increase in tourism. The IMF said it expects the economy to rebound in 2025 and expand 1.1% as private consumption and wage growth improve, assuming that the Bank of Japan continues to raise rates “toward a neutral setting of about 1.5%.” The BoJ raised interest rates out of negative territory in July to the current rate of 0.25%. The markets are expecting further hikes but the central bank has been very cautious and wants to see evidence of sustainable inflation at 2% before making additional hikes. This has made the BoJ an outlier among major central banks, most of which are in a rate-cutting cycle in response to falling inflation. Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI, a key inflation indicator, on Thursday. The indicator is expected to ease to 1.7% in September, down from 2% in August. The BoJ meets on Oct. 30-31, right after a general election on Oct. 27. The Bank will likely maintain policy settings but the markets will be keeping a close eye on the quarterly projections for inflation and growth. USD/JPY has pushed above several resistance lines today and the next resistance line is 153.19 150.93 and 150.66 are providing support
by OANDA
USD/JPY Strengthens Due to High U.S. Bond YieldsThe technical analysis of USD/JPY on October 23 shows a strong upward trend. Currently, the pair is trading around 152.692 after breaking the 150.489 support level, paving the way for a potential rise to 155. The EMA 34 and 89 lines provide solid support, while the MACD indicator suggests strong upward momentum. A short-term correction may occur before further gains. On the news front, USD/JPY is boosted by high U.S. bond yields and expectations that the Fed will maintain stable rates, while the Bank of Japan continues its loose monetary policy.
by Zola_Hello