USDJPY Setup: Weak Highs, Smart Money Buys Liquidity!!📊 USDJPY is showing signs of a Smart Money reversal from the discount zone.
This 30-minute chart reveals institutional intentions hiding in plain sight — with clear signs of engineered liquidity grabs and the potential for a strong bullish continuation.
🧠 What’s Happening on the Chart:
✅ Price has swept sell-side liquidity below the recent lows
✅ Retraced cleanly to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 146.26, a classic Smart Money entry zone
✅ The current price is hovering around the 50% retracement, forming a potential higher low structure
📈 Bullish Confluence:
Price is rebounding from a discount zone (golden ratio: 61.8% Fib)
There’s a clearly defined "weak high" marked around 147.00 — Smart Money typically targets these areas
Above that, there are two stacked buy-side liquidity levels:
147.670
148.282
Final target? The liquidity pool near 148.654 — a clean magnet for price
🎯 Trade Idea:
Long Bias from 146.26–146.43 zone (Smart Money re-entry)
Targets:
TP1: 147.00 (Weak High)
TP2: 147.670 (Buy Side Liquidity)
TP3: 148.282 – 148.654 (Full Liquidity Sweep)
Invalidation: Clean break below 146.20 with strong bearish volume
📌 Why This Setup Works:
This setup uses Smart Money Concepts (SMC):
Weak Highs often signal institutional targets
Fair Value Gap (FVG) + Fib confluence adds strong bullish probability
Retail shorts get trapped, thinking the rally was a pullback — while institutions accumulate at discount
🧠 Pro Tip:
Watch for confirmation with a bullish engulfing candle or break of short-term structure before full entry.
Front-running the Smart Money leads to losses. Let them move first.
💬 Comment "USDJPY MOVE" if you're planning to trade this setup
💾 Save this chart for later — this is how the big players trade FX.
JPYUSD trade ideas
Short I opened a short position yesterday at the price of 147.50.
Currently the price is 146.18. The price has dropped quite a bit but I think it still has a good short entry opportunity with a reasonable risk reward.
Reasons for short trade:
The price has reached the major support level around 149 on the 22nd April. Since then, the price has moved up to the fair value gap area between 149.2 and 148.2 (blue rectangular box), and also the order block.
That area is also the Fib 0786 area. I look at Fib 0.786 as the last line of defence and it is usually a hard line to break.
The price hit the area and started to move to the downside. Momentum indicators are still in the bull territory but the lines have crossed and clearly moving to the downside.
My macro bias for USD is bearish and the current price set up support my bias. The risk reward is good enough for me to enter.
My trade set up:
Entry: 147.51Stop: 148.95Target: 142.478 (Fib 0.236)
Risk:Reward= 1:3.5
Currently the price is 146.17. It just broked below Fib 0.618. Entry now can give you 1:1.5 risk reward.
UPDATED ANALYSIS ON USD/JPYUSD/JPY 4H - AS you can see price has recently come to clear a FVG that was left over from the last impulsive wave that drove price lower. We have now seen price correct itself trading us up and into this area.
I now want to see price break down, confirming that the corrective wave trading us into this inefficiency has finished and a new bearish wave trading us lower is ready be printed.
We will get the confirmation we need one price has broken structure more fractally to the downside. I have marked out the last protected low within the corrective wave. Once we have a break here we have our confirmation.
This is because within bullish structure we break highs and protect lows, so by breaking a low we are not longer following the laws of bullishness but rather following the laws of bearishness, confirming this next bearish impulse.
USD/JPY Support Test at Prior Resistance + Trendline in-PlayUSD/JPY came into the week with a full head of steam, testing above the 148 level after having found support at 145 last Friday. The pullback on Tuesday was pronounced, helped along by a weak U.S. CPI report, but so far USD/JPY and USD bulls have stepped up at key spots of support. In DXY, prior neckline resistance from the inverse head and shoulders pattern has come into play and in USD/JPY, it's a confluent spot at 145.92 and 146.20 that's stepped-in to hold a possible higher-low.
There's also the trendline projection which, notably, held resistance after both the BoJ meeting two weeks ago and the FOMC rate decision last week. That trendline is shown in red and it's coming into play as support.
For next resistance - the 200-day moving average seems important and that plots about 40 pips below the 150.00 handle. Given the numerous traps that have printed on both sides of the Yen this year, chasing still seems dangerous and attempting to work with pullbacks in trends remains an attractive way forward. - js
Too Many Bullish Clues — Greed Activated📍Current Price: 143.437
TimeFrame 30Min
Bullish Reasons:
+ Strong Support
+ Psychological Level
+ Tweezer Bottom
+ Bullish RSI Divergence
+ Channel Bottom
= Potential Bullish Reversal
Support & Resistance Levels:
• 142.000 – Strong Support + Psychological Level
• 140.000 – Strong Support + Psychological Level
• 148.000 – Psychological Level + Price Target
• 150.000 – Psychological Level
"Trade smart – always follow your risk management.
Protect your account first, profits will follow.
Happy trading!"
USD/JPY Rejected at Trend ResistanceUSD/JPY extended more than 6.2% off the yearly low with price registering an intraday high at 148.65 on Monday before reversing lower. The focus now shifts back to this turn from downtrend resistance with initial support now in view.
A closer look at Japanese Yen price action shows USD/JPY trading within the confines of embedded ascending pitchfork extending off the lows. The lower parallel now converge on near-term support at the May opening-range high (ORH) at 145.92 and the 38.2% retracement of the April advance / objective weekly open at 145.30/37 - a break / close below this slope would suggest a more significant high was registered this week / threaten resumption of them broader downtrend. Subsequent support objectives seen at the May open / 61.8% retracement at 143.05/24 with the yearly low-day close (LDC) at 141.56 .
Initial resistance is eyed along-the median-line and is backed by key levels at 148.67/74 and the March high-day close (HDC) / 200 day moving average near 149.50/60 - a breach / close above this region is ultimately needed to validate a breakout of the yearly downtrend / suggest a larger trend reversal is underway. The first major technical consideration in the event of a breakout is eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range / 2022 & 2023 highs at 151.63/94 - look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: USD/JPY has responded to confluent downtrend resistance with the pullback now approaching initial support and the first test for the bulls. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the lower parallel IF price is heading for a breakout here with a close above the 200-day moving average needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
-MB
Potential bullish bounce?USD/JPY has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 145.89
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 144.44
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 148.70
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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USD/JPY..4h chart pattern..USD/JPY sell trade idea:
**Trade Setup:**
- **Entry:** 146.60 (current market price)
- **Target:** 143.90 (270 pips profit potential)
- **Potential Move:** -1.84% decline from entry
**Key Considerations:**
1. **Support Levels:**
- 145.00 (psychological level & recent swing low)
- 144.50 (2023 resistance-turned-support)
- Your target at 143.90 sits just above the 143.50 major support
2. **Resistance:**
- 147.00-147.50 (recent highs)
- 148.00 (multi-decade resistance)
3. **Fundamentals:**
- Watch for BOJ intervention risk if JPY weakens further
- US-Japan yield spreads remain key driver
- Next FOMC meeting (Sep 20) could impact USD
4. **Risk Management:**
- Consider stop above 147.50 (90 pips risk for 270 pip reward = 1:3 RR)
- Price above 147.80 would invalidate bearish structure
**Alternative Scenario:**
If price stalls at 145.00, you may consider taking partial profits and moving stop to breakeven.
Would you like me to suggest specific trade management strategies or analyze this with technical indicators?
USDJPY 4H BULLISH ZONEBased on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart we provided, the market is currently in an ascending channel. A recent dip from the upper boundary of the channel suggests a possible retracement before a bounce back up. The chart indicates a bullish continuation pattern with a projected move toward the top of the channel and a marked target around 148.725–148.855.
Suggested Buy Trade Setup:
Entry Zone (Buy Limit):
Near the mid-channel or support trendline: 145.50–145.80
Take Profit Levels (TPs):
1. TP1: 147.00 – conservative target (near recent highs)
2. TP2: 148.00 – key resistance and psychological level
3. TP3: 148.725 – top of the channel
4. TP4: 148.855 – potential breakout level or final target
Stop Loss (SL):
Below channel support: 144.80–145.00, depending on risk appetite
USDJPY: Bearish Trend ContinuesThe exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen continues its downward trend, further retreating from the 148.65 area (the highest level since April 3) touched earlier this week. During the European trading session, driven by multiple factors, the exchange rate dropped below 146.00. The daily chart of the US dollar against the Japanese yen shows that the exchange rate is in a downward channel. Currently, the price is retesting the important support area of 145.230, which has served as a resistance level on many occasions before. From the perspective of the Bollinger Bands indicator, the exchange rate has declined from the upper band (147.848) and is currently hovering near the middle band, indicating that the short - term downward pressure still exists.
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
USD/JPY Multi-Timeframe Trading Plan – Week AheadUSD/JPY is trending higher short-term but remains below key resistance on the daily chart. The daily timeframe shows an inverted head-and-shoulders forming, with a neckline at 152. Until that breaks, rallies into 148–150 are likely to fade. The 1-hour chart shows a rising wedge from 142 to 148.5 with support around 145.0. Momentum is slowing, warning of potential exhaustion near 148.
On the 15-minute chart, recent price action shows a bull flag and a double bottom, offering buy zones at 146.10–146.30. The plan for early week is to long dips to this zone, targeting 146.80–147.20 with stops below 145.90. Watch for fades around 147.50–148.00 mid-week. A break above 148.00 opens room to 150.00; below 145.00, momentum shifts bearish.
Strategy: Buy pullbacks early in the week; fade rallies near 148 mid-week. Flip long above 148.00 or short below 145.00. Use tight stops and manage risk per trade.
BULLISH IDEA ON USDJPYThe DXY is bullish and the JXY is bearish this means we can get to see good bullish momentum in this pair. USDJPY has been in an uptrend for a long time now and we recently saw a divergence that played out yet the higher low still has not been broken so this can be a good buying opportunity as price is at a good support level. Stoploss placed just below the higher low.
The Rise of the US Dollar Pressures the Japanese Yen!The US dollar has regained its upward momentum recently, supported by market optimism following the mutual US-China agreement to reduce tariffs. One of the most notable currencies to weaken against the US dollar is the Japanese yen.
The USD/JPY pair has risen, forming a series of higher highs. The recent movement highlights three key levels to watch closely.
The 145.644 level is considered a positive signal for a renewed upward move, targeting the 147.755 level.
Meanwhile, the 144.822 level serves as a key support to maintain the bullish outlook. A drop below this level and a daily or 4-hour close beneath it would indicate a shift from a bullish to a bearish trend.
JPY retracement?Make or Break Zone
145.370 (just above 0.382 Fib)
145.760 (a minor resistance cluster)
It’s a Critical Zone:
This zone sits right around:
0.5 Fibonacci level (145.467): Often a strong inflection point.
Previous structure resistance turned potential support.
🟢 If Price Holds:
Bullish continuation is likely.
Next targets: 146.220 (0.618) → 147.292 (0.786) → retest 148.658 highs.
🔴 If Price Breaks Down:
Expect further downside toward:
0.382 (144.714) and then
0.236 (143.783) or even 142.277 (Fib swing low).