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USD/JPY calm as BoJ Core CPI risesThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 157.33, up 0.11% on the day at the time of writing. The yen is having a dreadful time as it continues to lose ground against the strong US dollar. Since Oct. 1, the yen has plunged 9.5% and the yen's woes could force the Bank of Japan to intervene on the currency markets in order to prop up the ailing currency. The BoJ Core CPI index, which is closely watched by the central bank, rose to 1.7% y/y in November, up from 1.5% in October and above the market estimate or 1.5%. This release follows last week's national headline inflation release, which jumped to 2.9% in November from 2.3% in October. This was the highest level since October 2023.  The gain was driven by sharp increases in food and electricity prices. Notably, core CPI, which excludes food, rose from 2.6% to 2.7% and core-core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed from 2.3% to 2.4%. Any way you cut it, inflation is moving higher and that has raised expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise rates in early 2025. The BoJ held rates at last week's meeting and BOJ Governor Ueda said that since underlying inflation was only increasing "at a moderate pace", the BoJ could take its time in raising rates. However, with inflation rising and the yen pushing closer to the 160 level, the BoJ could respond with a rate hike as early as January. The BoJ is also concerned with the incoming Trump administration, which has pledged to slap tariffs on US trading partners. Bank policy makers will be nervously watching if Trump moves ahead with tariffs or is his bark worse than his bite. The BoJ meets next on Jan.24, a day after Trump is sworn into office. There is resistance at 157.51 and 157.86 156.93 and 156.58 are the next support levels
by OANDA
1
Possible 1000pip Projection For 2025Following up on our previous analysis of USDJPY, we’re now active on this trade. As the market unfolds, we’ll be looking for opportunities to scale in with additional positions. Always remember, the market has the final say—it’s not about being right but about staying adaptable. Ensure you’re applying proper risk management and stay optimistic. Keep an open mind and trust the process. Stay tuned here for regular updates as we let patience lead the way. Ieios!
by Ieios
4
USDJPY | Hidden Bearish Divergence | 1HCurrently, the USDJPY chart shows the formation of a hidden bearish divergence and a double top pattern, both indicating that the uptrend is shifting into a downtrend. Additionally, new lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH) are forming, confirming the change in market structure. These factors suggest the presence of a potential reversal zone (PRZ), where the price is likely to continue its downward movement. Explanation: 1: Hidden Bearish Divergence: The price is formed higher highs (HH), while the RSI is showing lower highs, signaling weakness in the uptrend and a potential reversal. 2: Double Top Formation: A double top is a strong reversal pattern, indicating that the price has struggled to break through a resistance level and is now likely to move downward. 3: Market Structure Shift: The formation of lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH) indicates a transition from an uptrend to a downtrend, confirming bearish sentiment. 4: Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ): The confluence of divergence, the double top, and the structural change points to a PRZ where sellers are likely to dominate, pushing the price further down. This setup suggests a bearish bias, and traders could look for sell opportunities after proper confirmation, such as a retest of the PRZ or a bearish candlestick pattern.
Short
by awaisulabdeen
USD/JPY Approaching Key Fibonacci ResistanceChart Analysis: The USD/JPY pair has extended its rally and is now approaching the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 157.19, a critical resistance zone for the current uptrend. 1️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement: The 78.6% retracement of the downtrend from 161.80 to 138.00 aligns near 157.19, making it a key area for traders to watch for potential reversals or a breakout continuation. 2️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): The pair is comfortably above this level at 152.50, highlighting strong short-term bullish momentum. 200-day SMA (red): Positioned at 152.21, confirming the broader upward trend. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 68.44, nearing overbought territory, suggesting a potential slowdown or consolidation in the short term. MACD: Bullish momentum remains strong as the MACD line trends higher, signaling continued buying pressure. What to Watch: A breakout above 157.19 could open the path for a retest of the 161.80 highs. If the pair stalls at Fibonacci resistance, traders may look for support around the 50-day SMA near 152.50. USD/JPY is at a pivotal resistance zone. While the trend remains bullish, momentum indicators suggest caution as price approaches critical levels. -MW
by FOREXcom
What Is ICT Turtle Soup, and How Can You Use It in Trading?What Is ICT Turtle Soup, and How Can You Use It in Trading? The ICT Turtle Soup pattern is a strategic trading approach designed to exploit false breakouts in financial markets. By understanding and leveraging liquidity grabs, traders can identify potential reversals and enter trades with relative precision. This article delves into the components of the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, how to identify and use it, and its potential advantages and limitations, providing traders with valuable insights to potentially enhance their trading strategies. The ICT Turtle Soup Pattern Explained ICT Turtle Soup is a trading pattern developed by the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) that focuses on exploiting false breakouts in the market. This ICT price action strategy aims to identify and take advantage of situations where the price briefly moves beyond a key support or resistance level, only to reverse direction shortly after. This movement is often seen in ranging markets where prices oscillate between established highs and lows. The concept behind ICT Turtle Soup trading is rooted in the idea of liquidity hunts and market imbalances. When the price breaks out, it often triggers stop-loss orders set by other traders, creating a temporary imbalance. The ICT Turtle Soup strategy seeks to capitalise on this by entering trades in the opposite direction once the breakout fails and the price returns to its previous range​. The pattern is named humorously after the original Turtle Traders' strategy, which focuses on genuine breakouts. In contrast, ICT Turtle Soup takes advantage of these failed attempts, thus "making soup out of turtles" by transforming unproductive breakout attempts into potentially effective trades​. Typically, traders look for specific signs of a false breakout, such as a price briefly moving above a recent high or below a recent low but failing to sustain the move. This strategy is particularly effective when used in conjunction with other ICT concepts, such as higher timeframe analysis and understanding of market structure​. Components of the ICT Turtle Soup Pattern To effectively utilise the ICT Turtle Soup setup, it’s essential to understand its core components: order flow and market structure, liquidity, and internal versus external liquidity. Order Flow and Market Structure Order flow and market structure are critical in analysing the ICT Turtle Soup pattern. This involves observing price movements and traders' behaviour in different timeframes. Traders can analyse higher and lower timeframe price movements in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. Higher Timeframe Structure This refers to the broader trend governing the lower timeframe trend. For traders using the 15m-1h charts to trade, this might mean structure visible on 4-hour, daily, or weekly charts. Higher timeframe structures help traders identify the major support and resistance levels. These levels are essential as they mark the boundaries within which the market generally oscillates. Traders use these to determine the prevailing market direction and potential areas where false breakouts (stop hunts) are likely to occur​. Lower Timeframe Structure Lower timeframe structures are examined on hourly or minute charts. These provide a more detailed view of price action within the higher timeframe’s range and account for the bullish and bearish legs that dictate a broader higher timeframe trend. Liquidity and Stop Hunts In general trading terms, liquidity represents how easy it is to enter or exit a market. However, in the context of the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, areas of liquidity can be identified beyond key swing points. Stop Hunts Stop hunts, also known as a liquidity sweep, occur when the price temporarily moves above a resistance level or below a support level to trigger stop-loss orders. This movement creates a liquidity spike as traders' stops are hit, providing a favourable condition for the price to reverse direction. ICT Turtle Soup traders seek to exploit these moments by entering trades opposite to the initial breakout direction once the liquidity is absorbed. Internal and External Liquidity Understanding internal and external liquidity is vital for applying the ICT Turtle Soup pattern effectively. Internal Liquidity This refers to the liquidity available within the range of the higher timeframe structure. It involves identifying smaller support and resistance levels within the larger range. For example, in a bullish leg, there will be a series of higher highs and higher lows; beneath these higher lows is where internal liquidity rests. This internal liquidity will be targeted to form a bearish leg as part of a higher timeframe bullish trend. External Liquidity This involves liquidity that exists outside the key highs and lows of the higher timeframe trend. To use the example of the bullish leg in a higher timeframe bullish trend, the low it originated from and the high it creates as the bearish retracement begins count as areas of external liquidity. Order Blocks and Imbalances While not directly involved in the ICT Turtle Soup setup, understanding order blocks and imbalances can provide insight into where the price might head and the general market context. Order blocks are areas where significant buying or selling activity has previously occurred, often due to institutional orders. These blocks represent zones of support and resistance where the price is likely to react. Bullish Order Blocks These are typically found at the base of a significant upward move and indicate zones where buying interest is strong. When the price revisits these areas, it often finds support, making them potential entry points for long trades​. Bearish Order Blocks Conversely, these are located at the top of significant downward moves and signal strong selling interest. These zones often act as resistance when revisited, making them strategic points for short trades​. Imbalances Imbalances, or fair value gaps (FVGs), are price regions where the market has moved too quickly, creating a significant disparity between the number of long and short trades. These gaps often occur due to high volatility and indicate areas where the market might revisit to "fill" the gap, thereby achieving fair value. In other words, when a price rapidly moves in one direction, it leaves behind an area with little to no trading activity. The market often returns to these imbalanced zones to facilitate proper price discovery and liquidity. How to Use the ICT Turtle Soup Strategy Here's a detailed breakdown of how traders use the ICT Turtle Soup pattern. Establishing a Bias Traders begin by analysing the higher timeframe trend, such as the daily or weekly charts, to establish a market bias. This analysis helps determine whether the market is predominantly bullish or bearish. Identifying this trend is crucial as it guides where to look for potential Turtle Soup setups. For instance, the example above shows AUDUSD initially moving down after a bullish movement off-screen. It eventually breaks above the lower high, indicating that the higher timeframe trend may now be bullish. Similarly, the shorter-term downtrend beginning from mid-May also saw a new high, meaning a trader may want to look for long positions. Identifying Internal Liquidity Once the higher timeframe trend is established, traders look for a move counter to that higher timeframe trend. In the example shown, this would be a downtrend counter to the bullish structure break. They mark levels of internal liquidity; in a bullish leg, these would be below swing lows and vice versa. These areas are likely to attract stop-loss orders. Looking for Liquidity Taps The next step involves waiting for these internal liquidity areas to be tapped. This typically happens when the price briefly breaks through a support or resistance level, triggering stop-loss orders before quickly reversing direction. Ideally, the price should tap into the same area or order block where the internal liquidity formed and then exhibit a quick reversal, often leaving just a small wick. This movement indicates a liquidity grab, where large players have taken out stops to facilitate their own orders. Lower Timeframe Confirmation After identifying a liquidity grab beyond this internal liquidity level, traders look for an entry. On a lower timeframe, they look for a similar pattern: internal liquidity being run and a subsequent break of structure in the direction of the higher timeframe trend. This involves price retracing back inside the range to fill an imbalance and meet an order block, which provides a precise entry point. Executing the Trade Once these conditions are met, traders typically enter the market. Specifically, they’ll often leave a limit order at an order block to trade in the direction of the higher timeframe trend. They place a stop loss just beyond the liquidity grab, either above the recent high for a short trade or below the recent low for a long trade. Profit targets are often set at key liquidity levels, such as previous highs or lows, where the market is likely to encounter significant activity​. Potential Advantages and Limitations The ICT Turtle Soup pattern is a trading strategy with several potential benefits and drawbacks. Advantages - Precision: Allows for precise entry points by identifying false breakouts and liquidity grabs​. - Adaptability: Effective across different timeframes and market conditions, including ranging and trending markets. - Risk Management: Built-in risk management by placing stop losses just beyond the liquidity grab points. Limitations - Complexity: Requires a deep understanding of market structure, liquidity, and order flow, making it challenging for less experienced traders​. - Market Conditions: Less effective in highly volatile or illiquid markets where false signals are more common. - Time-Consuming: Demands continuous monitoring of multiple timeframes to identify valid setups, which can be time-intensive. The Bottom Line The ICT Turtle Soup pattern offers traders a powerful tool to identify and exploit false breakouts in the market. By understanding its components and applying the strategy effectively, traders can potentially enhance their trading performance. To put this strategy into practice, consider opening an FXOpen account, a reliable broker that provides the necessary tools and resources for trading. FAQs What Is ICT Turtle Soup in Trading? ICT Turtle Soup is a trading pattern that exploits false breakouts. It identifies potential reversals when the price briefly moves beyond a key support or resistance level, triggering stop-loss orders before reversing direction. This strategy aims to take advantage of these liquidity grabs by entering trades opposite to the initial breakout direction​. How to Identify ICT Turtle Soup Conditions? To identify the ICT Turtle Soup pattern, traders analyse higher timeframe trends to establish market bias. They then look for counter-trend moves and mark internal liquidity areas. The pattern is identified when the price taps these liquidity zones and reverses quickly, often leaving a small wick. This signals a liquidity grab and potential trade setup in the direction of the higher timeframe trend​. How to Use the ICT Turtle Soup Pattern? Using the ICT Turtle Soup pattern involves several steps. First, traders establish a market bias based on higher timeframe analysis. Then, they look for liquidity grabs at marked internal liquidity areas, indicating false breakouts. The next step is to confirm the setup on a lower timeframe by observing a similar liquidity grab and structure break. Lastly, they enter trades in the direction of the higher timeframe trend, placing stop losses just beyond the liquidity grab and targeting key liquidity levels for profit-taking​. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
USDJPY💡The chart shows technical analysis of the USD/JPY currency pair on the daily time frame (D1). If the price remains within the liquidity zone, there may be an opportunity to sell with a target towards support levels (S1 or S2). If the price breaks the liquidity zone to the upside, it may head to the next resistance (R.1). MACD indicator: It indicates clear upward momentum, which supports the continued rise to resistance areas. However, you should constantly monitor the indicator, especially if the green bars start decreasing or red bars appear, to identify any possible reversal. We wait for the selling momentum to start. ⛔️It is not investment advice for educational purposes only.
by Adhamcurrency
USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 👀 So Be Careful, wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull trade at any point, however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low or high level. Goal 🎯: 163.000 Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release. Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
Long
by Thief_Trader
USD/JPY Surges Higher:US Economic Strength Fuels Dollar MomentumThe USD/JPY exchange rate continues its upward trajectory, aligning with our forecast as robust US economic data bolsters the dollar. The price movement reflects the strong momentum of the USD, with the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report indicating that commercial traders maintain a strong position, while retail investors are riding the wave. Our initial price target is set at 155.050, and beyond that, we anticipate a potential move towards 158.000, where a notable supply zone exists. Recent US macroeconomic indicators point to significant growth in the fourth quarter. Investor sentiment remains buoyed by expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement interest rate cuts in December. However, the Fed may emphasize the strengthening economic conditions and rising inflation, which could lead to a more hawkish stance in their forward guidance. Conversely, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate levels during Thursday's meeting. This comes after indications of a possible 25 basis point reduction just a week prior. Dovish comments from BoJ officials suggest that the bank will likely postpone any decisions until January to evaluate how US policies under the Trump administration might affect the Japanese economy. Today's economic calendar highlights US Retail Sales, which are projected to reflect strong consumer spending. This, combined with positive services activity reported earlier this week, is likely to curtail any downside pressures on the US dollar, at least until the Fed meeting's outcome. We are optimistic about a continued upward movement in the USD/JPY pair. Our Initial Forecast: ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY price action: breakout rally after hawkish FedThe USD/JPY pair has surged over 2% to reach 157.51, marking the yen's weakest level in four months. This significant rally follows recent interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Despite the Fed's 25bps rate cut, the US dollar has gained strength due to the market's anticipation of only two rate cuts in 2025, contrasting with earlier expectations of four. This decision maintains the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, benefiting carry trade strategies. Meanwhile, the BoJ has kept its short-term rate steady at 0.25%, its highest since 2008, with potential rate hikes forecasted if economic conditions align. The US's optimistic economic projections, with rising GDP, inflation, and job growth, further bolster the dollar's appeal. As global economic uncertainties and political changes unfold, traders should monitor central bank signals to navigate the USD/JPY's trajectory and carry trade opportunities.
by tastyfx
USDJPY BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisUSDJPY is moving in an UP trend channel. The chart broke through the dynamic Resistance line, which now acts as support. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level which suggests that the price will continue to rise Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity USDJPY I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad
Long
by TheGrove
1
USDJPY - Potential Reversal and Key Levels to WatchUSDJPY - Potential Reversal and Key Levels to Watch USDJPY pair is currently trading around 154.60, showing signs of a possible correction after a strong bullish move and today's FOMC decision. The price touched a key resistance zone beginning at around 154.50, which aligns with historical supply levels. Elliott Wave Structure The current wave count suggests that we might be nearing the completion of a larger impulsive structure. The five-wave sequence to the upside appears to be reaching exhaustion, indicating that a corrective move (potentially in the form of an ABC pattern) could follow. The completion of Wave (5) near the recent highs reinforces this corrective scenario. Key Support Levels On the downside, significant support can be found around the 150.00-152.00 range, where multiple factors come into play: Strong institutional demand is likely in this zone, as indicated by a large order block. The 0.618 and 0.764 Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous bullish (beginning in early Dec. 2024) move also converge here, offering further validation for potential buy-side activity. If the price corrects further, we expect these levels to act as a major buffer against extended downside movement. A break below 150.00, however, could open the door for deeper retracements towards 145.00 and below. Upside Potential Should the current consolidation break higher, USD/JPY could aim to retest the critical resistance between 154.50 and 156.00. A clean break above this zone would invalidate the immediate bearish outlook and open the path towards new highs, possibly targeting the 160.00 psychological level. Momentum & Volume The VOLD shows a mixed picture, with momentum slowing down but not yet turning decisively bearish. This suggests that the market is at a key inflection point, where further price action will determine the next trend. Bulls need to clear the 156.00 resistance to regain full control, while bears will be watching for a breakdown below 152.00 for confirmation of a deeper correction. Conclusion USD/JPY is trading at a critical juncture. The resistance at 154.50-156.00 will be crucial in determining whether we see a continuation of the uptrend or a deeper correction. Traders should watch for a potential pullback to the 154.00-152.00 zone as a key area for possible long entries, while a break below these levels could signal a more pronounced bearish phase. On the upside, a breakout above 156.00 would suggest that the bulls are regaining momentum and aiming for new highs.
Long
by Ochlokrat
USD/JPY 4H Timeframe AnalysisUSD/JPY 4H Timeframe Analysis Trend Analysis: The USD/JPY pair is currently in an uptrend, having successfully broken key minor resistance levels, including 156.800, which has now turned into support. This break signals the continuation of bullish momentum, confirmed by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, the pair broke the 157.500 minor resistance, further indicating that buyers have stepped in. The price action is now moving towards the next major resistance level at 160.900. Additionally, price action has shown signs of manipulation or liquidity grabs at key levels. The price briefly dipped below support, hunting stop losses before reversing direction. This has set up the potential for a continuation of the uptrend, as the market clears out stop losses and accumulates liquidity for the next leg up. Price Action Expectation: We are observing liquidity being formed below the 156.800 support level. We are now waiting for a breakout above 157.500 to confirm the continuation of the bullish trend. The plan is to place a buy stop order at 157.690, just above the minor resistance, to enter the market once this level is broken. A stop loss will be placed below the liquidity zone at 156.500, a strategic location to manage risk. Trade Setup: Trade Type: Buy Stop Entry Price: 157.690 (just above the minor resistance after a breakout) Stop Loss: 156.500 (below the liquidity zone) Take Profit: 160.900 (next minor resistance level) Additional Considerations: The current bullish setup remains valid, but traders should be cautious of any potential reversal signs if the price fails to break above 157.500. If price action shows signs of rejection at these levels, a shift in trend could occur. Monitoring any significant news events or economic releases will also be important to avoid unexpected market moves. Conclusion: The USD/JPY pair is showing strong bullish momentum, supported by the technical breakout of key resistance levels. As the price moves toward the next resistance at 160.900, careful risk management is crucial. Traders should be prepared for possible pullbacks or consolidations around key levels while maintaining a focus on trend continuation. Economic events and market sentiment can still influence the strength of the USD against the JPY, so staying alert to these factors is essential.
Long
by RebornFXTrader
USDJPY InsightHello, Subscribers! Great to see you all. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - The U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for December dropped sharply by 8.1 points from the previous month to 104.7, marking its first decline in three months. - The decline is attributed to uncertainty surrounding policies from the Trump administration, which will begin on January 20, leading to weakened short-term consumer sentiment among Americans. - Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board, stated, "In December, consumers were significantly less optimistic about future business conditions and income. Following cautious optimism in October and November, pessimism has returned regarding future employment prospects." - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.5990%, its highest level since May, while the FedWatch tool reflects a 91.4% probability of a rate pause in January. Major Economic Events + December 25: Christmas + December 26: Boxing Day USD/JPY Chart Analysis After breaking past the 157 resistance level with ease, USD/JPY extended its gains to the 158 level. If it breaks through this zone, further upward momentum toward the 160–161 range is anticipated. Conversely, failure to breach the 158 resistance could lead to a pullback toward the 154 level. We will swiftly adjust our strategy if unexpected movements occur.
Long
by shawntime_academy