JPYUSD trade ideas
USDJPY BUY Trade Plan - High Probability Setups📈 🔵 Buy Plan (Continuation Trade) - High Confidence (80%)
🎯 Entry 1 (Breakout Confirmation): Above 156.60 (aggressive)
🎯 Entry 2 (Pullback Buy): 156.00 - 155.50 retest (safe/conservative)
📌 Stop-Loss: 155.30 (Below last OB, safe zone)
📌 Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 157.00 (liquidity grab area)
TP2: 157.80 - 158.00 (final target, resistance zone)
📌 R:R: Minimum 1:3, up to 1:5 if TP2 hits
🔹 Confirmations Required:
✅ Liquidity grab at 155.50 demand zone
✅ Bullish engulfing / momentum candle on H1/H4
✅ Break & Retest of 156.60
📉 🔴 ALTERNATE Sell Plan (Reversal Setup) - Medium Confidence (65%)
🎯 Entry: Below 155.50 break & retest
📌 Stop-Loss: 156.20 (Above last lower high)
📌 Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 154.80 (minor liquidity level)
TP2: 154.00 (main demand zone, strong support)
📌 R:R: 1:3 minimum
🔹 Confirmations Required:
✅ Bearish engulfing rejection from 156.80 - 157.00
✅ Break of 155.50 with strong bearish momentum
4️⃣ Final Thoughts (What I Would Do Personally)
📌 Primary Focus: BUY Trade is the best play, targeting 157.00 & 157.80+
📌 Why?
Bullish structure intact
Demand zone at 155.50 - 156.00 aligns with liquidity & order blocks
Strong bullish push shows smart money interest
🚀 Plan: I will look for a pullback into 156.00 - 155.50 for a safe buy entry, OR take a breakout buy above 156.60 with strong momentum confirmation.
✅ Confidence: 80% for buy, 65% for sell
🔥 Execute like a sniper, not a machine gun! Confirm levels, check order flow, and let the market come to you.
USD/JPY AnalysisI believe USD/JPY is currently in the fifth wave of the impulsive wave that started at 139.576. Based on my analysis, the pair is likely to undergo a correction, potentially reaching the 147.000 zone, before resuming its upward movement to form a new peak.
Bank of Japan Poised to Raise Rates to Highest in 17 Years!MARKET ALERT 🚨
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is poised to raise its short-term interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5% at its upcoming meeting from January 23-24, marking the first rate hike since July 2024. This move, if confirmed, would lift Japan's borrowing costs to their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair is currently testing an important support level near 154.80, with a clear trendline from earlier December still holding. The recent price action shows a potential bounce, indicated by the green circle on the chart. Additionally, the RSI shows a neutral zone, which suggests a potential for a continuation or consolidation. As long as the 55-day EMA holds, the index could surge past 161.00 in the coming days
BANK OF JAPAN's Decision:
The BOJ's decision is driven by a combination of factors, including Japan's sustained inflation rate, which has exceeded the 2% target for nearly three years, and increasing wage gains that are expected to continue pushing inflation higher. This rate hike is seen as part of the BOJ's ongoing strategy to normalize monetary policy after years of ultra-loose interest rates aimed at combating deflation.
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In addition to raising rates, the BOJ is also likely to revise its inflation forecast to reflect these conditions. The bank is expected to signal that the economic conditions are ripe for further tightening, though the pace and timing of subsequent rate hikes will be closely watched by the markets.
NIKKEI 300 Showing signs of Indecision since Sept 2024.
Governor Kazuo Ueda and other senior officials have carefully prepared the market for this move, with recent statements hinting at the possibility of a rate increase. Market participants are now looking ahead to Ueda's post-meeting briefing for more details on future policy actions. However, risks remain, particularly with global uncertainties such as potential market volatility linked to U.S. politics under President Donald Trump.
While the rate hike is seen as an important step in Japan's economic recovery, there are concerns about the potential consequences, especially given the country's historical challenges with low growth and inflation.
This policy shift highlights the BOJ's determination to move away from its extraordinary monetary easing measures, but the central bank must carefully navigate potential risks to both the domestic economy and global financial stability.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR CYPTO TRADERS and what should you do?
Be cautious with your leveraged positions as the news unfolds. Set stop losses and hold on to your long-term investments.
BTC/USDT Technical Analysis!
Last year, similar news had a severe impact on Bitcoin, causing it to drop from $72k to $48k. It was a tough situation, and many traders got caught in the downturn.
While Trump is pushing the market, this news could have a short-term negative effect on both crypto and global markets. Although I don't foresee anything major happening, it's always better to be safe than sorry.
So, be prepared for any outcome.
If this article adds any value please share it with your circle.
Disclaimer: This article is meant for educational purposes only. Please do your research before making any trade decisions.
Thank you
#PEACE
How Can You Trade with an Inverted Hammer Pattern?How Can You Trade with an Inverted Hammer Pattern?
In trading, patterns are powerful tools, allowing traders to anticipate changes in trend direction. One such pattern is the inverted hammer, a formation often seen as a bullish signal following a downtrend. Recognising this pattern and understanding its implications can be crucial for traders looking to spot reversal opportunities. In this article, we will explore the meaning of inverted hammer candlestick, how to identify it on a price chart, and how traders can incorporate it into their trading strategies.
What Is an Inverted Hammer?
An inverted hammer is a candlestick pattern that appears at the end of a downtrend, typically signalling a potential bullish reversal. It has a distinct shape, with a small body at the lower end of the candle and a long upper wick that is at least twice the size of the body. This structure suggests that although sellers initially dominated, buyers stepped in, pushing prices higher before closing near the opening level. While the inverted hammer alone does not confirm a reversal, it’s often considered a sign of a possible trend change when followed by a bullish move on subsequent candles.
The pattern can have any colour so that you can find a red inverted hammer candlestick or upside down green hammer. Although both will signal a bullish reversal, an inverted green hammer candle is believed to provide a stronger signal, reflecting the strength of bulls.
One of the unique features of this pattern is that traders can apply it to various financial instruments, such as stocks, cryptocurrencies*, ETFs, indices, and forex, across different timeframes. To test strategies with an inverted hammer formation, head over to FXOpen and enjoy CFD trading in over 700 markets.
Hammer vs Inverted Hammer
The hammer and inverted hammer are both single-candle patterns that appear in downtrends and signal potential bullish reversals, but they have distinct formations and implications:
- Hammer: The reversal hammer candle has a small body at the top with a long lower wick, indicating that buyers pushed prices back up after a period of selling pressure. This pattern shows that sellers were initially strong, but buyers regained control, potentially signalling a reversal.
- Inverted Hammer: The inverted hammer, by contrast, has a small body at the bottom with a long upper wick. This structure indicates initial buying pressure, but sellers prevented a complete takeover. This pattern suggests that buyers may soon regain strength, hinting at a possible trend reversal.
Both patterns signal possible bullish sentiment, but while the green or red hammer candlestick focuses on buyer strength after selling, the inverted hammer suggests buyer interest in an overall bearish context, needing further confirmation for a trend shift.
How Traders Identify the Inverted Hammer Candlestick in Charts
Although the inverted hammer is easy to recognise, there are some rules traders follow to increase the reliability of the reversal signal it provides.
Step 1: Identify the Pattern in a Downtrend
- Traders ensure the market is in a downtrend, as the inverted hammer is only significant when it appears after a period of sustained selling pressure.
- Then, they look for a candlestick with a small body at the lower end and a long upper wick that’s at least twice the size of the body. This upper shadow shows initial buying pressure followed by selling, suggesting a potential reversal in sentiment.
Step 2: Choose Appropriate Timeframes
- The pattern can be seen across various timeframes, but daily and hourly charts are particularly popular for identifying it due to their balance of signals and reliability.
- Higher timeframes charts generally provide more reliable patterns, while shorter timeframes, like 5 or 15-minute charts, might lead to more false signals.
Step 3: Use Indicators to Strengthen Identification
- Volume: A rise in bullish trading volume after the inverted hammer can indicate stronger interest from buyers, increasing the likelihood of a trend reversal.
- Oscillators: Oscillators like Stochastic, Awesome Oscillator, or RSI showing an oversold reading alongside the candle can further suggest that the asset might be due for a reversal.
Step 4: Look for Confirmation Signals
- Gap-Up Opening: A gap-up opening in the next trading session indicates buyers stepping in, giving further weight to the bullish reversal.
- Bullish Candle: Following the inverted hammer with a strong bullish candle confirms that buying pressure has continued. This is a key signal that a trend reversal may be underway.
By following these steps and waiting for confirmation signals, traders can increase the reliability of the inverted hammer’s signals.
Trading the Inverted Hammer Candlestick Pattern
Trading the inverted hammer involves implementing a systematic approach to capitalise on potential bullish reversals. Here are some steps traders may consider when trading:
- Identify the Inverted Hammer: Spot the setup on a price chart by following the rules discussed earlier.
- Assess the Context: Analyse the broader market context and consider the pattern's location within the prevailing trend. Look for support levels, trendlines, or other significant price areas that could strengthen the reversal signal.
- Set an Entry: Candlestick patterns don’t provide accurate entry and exit points as chart patterns or some indicators do. However, traders can consider some general rules. Usually, traders wait for at least several candles to be formed upwards after the pattern is formed.
- Set Stop Loss and Take Profit Levels: The theory states that traders use a stop-loss order to limit potential losses if the trade doesn't go as anticipated. It may be placed below the low of the candlestick or based on a risk-reward ratio. The take-profit target might be placed at the next resistance level.
Inverted Hammer Candlestick: Live Market Example
The trader looks for a bullish inverted hammer on the USDJPY chart. After a subsequent downtrend, the inverted hammer provides a buying opportunity that aligns with the support level. They enter the market at the close of the inverted hammer candle and place a stop loss below the support level. Their take-profit target is at the next resistance level.
A trader could implement a more conservative approach and wait for at least a few candles to form in the uptrend direction. However, as the pattern was formed at the 5-minute chart, a trader could lose a trading opportunity or enter the market with a poor risk-reward ratio.
Advantages and Limitations of Using the Inverted Hammer
The inverted hammer has its strengths and limitations. Here’s a closer look:
Advantages
- Simple to Identify: The pattern is easy to recognise on charts due to its unique shape, making it accessible for traders at all experience levels.
- Can Be Spot in Different Markets: The candle can be found on charts of different assets across all timeframes.
- Straightforward Trading Approach: It offers a straightforward signal that can be incorporated into broader trading strategies, especially with confirmation signals.
Limitations
- Reliability Depends on Confirmation: The candle alone does not guarantee a market reversal; it requires confirmation from the next candlestick or other indicators. Without this, the reversal signal may be weak.
- Works Only in Strong Downtrends: The pattern might be more effective in strong downtrends; in ranging or weak trends, it generates less reliable signals.
- False Signals Can Occur: False signals are possible, especially in volatile markets. Over-reliance on this pattern without additional analysis may lead to poor trade outcomes.
Final Thoughts
While the inverted hammer can provide valuable insights into potential trend reversals, it should not be the sole basis for trading decisions. It is important to supplement analysis with other technical indicators and tools to strengthen the overall trading strategy. Furthermore, effective risk management strategies are crucial while trading the setup. Setting appropriate stop-loss orders to limit potential losses and implementing proper position sizing techniques can help potentially mitigate risks and protect trading capital.
If you are ready to develop your trading strategy, open an FXOpen account today to trade in over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50. Good luck!
FAQ
Is an Inverted Hammer Bullish?
Yes, it is considered a bullish reversal pattern. It indicates a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend in the market. While it may seem counterintuitive due to its name, the setup suggests that buying pressure has overcome selling pressure and that bulls are gaining strength.
How Do You Trade an Inverted Hammer?
To trade an inverted hammer, traders wait for confirmation in the next session, such as a gap-up or strong bullish candle. They usually enter a buy position with a stop-loss below the low of the pattern to potentially manage risk and a take-profit level at the closest resistance level.
Is the Inverted Hammer a Trend Reversal Signal?
It is generally considered a potential trend reversal signal. An inverted hammer in a downtrend suggests a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. An inverted hammer in an uptrend does not signify anything.
What Happens After a Reverse Hammer Candlestick?
After a reverse (or inverted) hammer candle, there may be a potential bullish reversal if confirmed by a strong bullish candle in the next session. However, without confirmation, the pattern alone does not guarantee a trend change.
How Do You Trade an Inverted Hammer Candlestick in an Uptrend?
In an uptrend, an inverted hammer isn’t generally considered significant because it’s primarily a reversal signal in a downtrend.
Are Inverted Hammer and Shooting Star the Same?
No, the inverted hammer and shooting star look similar but occur in opposite trends; the former appears in a downtrend as a bullish reversal signal, while the latter appears in an uptrend as a bearish reversal signal.
What Is the Difference Between a Hanging Man and an Inverted Hammer?
The hanging man and inverted hammer differ in both appearance and context. The former appears at the end of an uptrend as a bearish signal and has a small body and a long lower shadow, while the latter appears at the end of a downtrend as a bullish signal and has a small body and a long upper shadow.
What Is the Difference Between a Red and Green Inverted Hammer?
A green (bullish) inverted hammer candlestick closes higher than its opening price, indicating a stronger bullish sentiment. A red (bearish) inverted hammer candlestick closes lower than its opening, which might indicate less buying strength, but both colours can signal a reversal if followed by confirmation.
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Bearish mean reversion kicks in for USD/JPYIts bullish trend struggled to gain any traction above 158, and now momentum has finally turned against USD/JPY bulls. A retracement is now underway, but as to how deep really comes down to whether incoming US data continues to soften to bolster Fed-cut bets, or if the BOJ get their hawkish skates on.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Market Analysis: USD/JPY Corrects GainsMarket Analysis: USD/JPY Corrects Gains
USD/JPY is correcting gains and now consolidates below 156.00.
Important Takeaways for USD/JPY Analysis Today
- USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 157.00 and 156.60 levels.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 155.90 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above the 158.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below the 157.00 support against the Japanese Yen.
The pair even settled below the 156.60 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a spike below 155.00 and the pair traded as low as 154.77. It is now correcting losses and trading above the 50-hour simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 156.58 swing high to the 154.77 low.
Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near a connecting bearish trend line at 155.90. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 156.58 swing high to the 154.77 low.
The first major resistance is near the 156.60 zone. If there is a close above the 156.60 level and the hourly RSI moves above 60, the pair could rise toward 157.00. The next major resistance is near 157.70, above which the pair could test 158.50 in the coming days.
On the downside, the first major support is near 155.35. The next major support is near the 154.80 level. If there is a close below 154.80, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 154.00 support.
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USDJPY Technical Analysis: Support, Breakout, and RetestUSDJPY has recently exhibited a bullish breakout pattern, breaking above a key resistance level. This breakout, followed by a retest of the broken level, presents a potential buying opportunity for traders.
A clear support level has been identified at 155.200
The recent breakout occurred above a significant resistance level at 156.00
The price decisively broke above the resistance level, indicating a shift in market sentiment.
A subsequent retest of the broken resistance level (now acting as support) provides a potential entry point for buyers.
Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss order below the recent swing low at 155.00 to manage risk.
Take-Profit: Set a take-profit target at 157.00 which could be a previous swing high or a key resistance level.
Disclaimer : This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should carefully consider your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation before making any trading decisions.
Trump, BOJ could be the ideal divergent theme for USD/JPY bearsWe've just seen the BOJ deliver a hawkish hike, where they upgraded their inflation forecasts and cited rising wage pressures. This leaves the door open for further hikes this year. Meanwhile, Trump is now trying to strongarm the Fed and global central banks to lower interest rates immediately. Together, this is the ideal divergent theme currency traders crave. And the icing on the cake for USD/JPY bears would be if Trump begins his attack on a strong USD (which I think he will).
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
usdjpy buy tradeThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing an upward trend, indicating increasing momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a bullish crossover, further supporting the potential for an upward move.
Scenario on usdjpy 23.1.2025 The market has formed sfp above the high which gives me an idea of where the market could go the likely scenario is a return back to the price around 158 from where a rebound and return back to lower levels could follow
GBPJPY and USDJPY Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDJPY Bullish This FridayLook for buy entries on USDJPY around 155,86 targeting 156,38. This is due to a possible play on a bullish flag pattern, it would be great if the orders are triggered. This is possible the last bullish push for JPY pairs before a massive dump
USDJPY: Very Bearish SentimentUSDJPY had been consolidating significantly since mid-December, trading within a large horizontal range on a daily timeframe.
However, following the release of certain fundamental news, the currency pair appears to have a strong bearish outlook.
The breakout below a support line within the range suggests that a bearish accumulation phase has been completed.
This could lead to further declines, with attention now turning to the next support level at 154.4.
USD/JPY : Ready for more Fall?! (READ THE CAPTION)Upon analyzing the USD/JPY chart in the daily time frame, we see that the pair is currently trading around the 157.060 level. Given the recent price action, I anticipate a significant correction in USD/JPY in the near future.
The first potential target for this decline is 156.25, so keep a close eye on this level! Stay tuned for updates as we track this movement together.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
USDJPY: Intraday Bearish Confirmation 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Earlier on Friday, I shared with you a confirmed structure
breakout on USDJPY on a daily.
This morning, retesting a broken structure, the price formed
a strong bearish confimation on an hourly.
I see a double top pattern and a violation of its neckline.
With a high probability, the price will fall and reach 155.57/ 155.18 levels.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
USD/JPY: Key Pullback After 320-Pip Drops, Another Decline AheadBy analyzing the USD/JPY daily chart, we observe that after a significant drop to 155 (yielding 320 pips), the price has reacted to a key psychological level and is currently in a pullback phase. Following a short upward move, we can look for a suitable trigger to align with another potential downside move. This chart will be updated again soon—stay tuned!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Bullish breakout?USD/JPY has reacted off the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 156.19
1st Support: 154.76
1st Resistance: 158.16
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Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 155.02
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 154.19
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 156.61
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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Potential bearish drop?USD/JPY has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 156.59
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 158.13
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 154.74
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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UJ sell ideaAhead of Friday's expected BOJ rate hike (0.25% to 0.50%), USDJPY is at a critical juncture.
Technical Insights:
1. Price found support on the 50-day moving average.
2. Lower time frames indicate a bearish bias, following the break of the ascending trend line on the 4-hour chart.
Trade Plan:
1. Waiting for price reaction between the 50% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels.
2. Aiming to sell on a confirmed bearish setup within this zone.
3. Alternative sell opportunity: Daily supply zone.
Key Levels to Watch:
- 50% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels
- Daily supply zone
PS: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice so remember to always practice good risk management.
USD/JPY H4 | Pullback resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementUSD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 157.10 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 159.00 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 155.09 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
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