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JPYUSD trade ideas

Japan's coalition loses majority, yen higherThe Japanese yen has started the week with strong gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.71, down 0.07% on the day. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba's ruling coalition failed to win a majority in the election for the upper house of parliament on Sunday. The result is a humiliating blow to Ishiba, as the government lost its majority in the lower house in October. The stinging defeat could be the end of the road for Ishiba. The Prime Minister has declared he will remain in office, but there is bound to be pressure from within the coalition for Ishiba to resign. The election result was not a surprise, as voters were expected to punish the government at the ballot box due to the high cost of food and falling incomes. The price of rice, a staple food, has soared 100% in a year, causing a full-blown crisis for the government, which has resorted to selling stockpiled rice from national reserves to the public. The election has greatly weakened Ishiba's standing, which is bad news as Japan is locked in intense trade talks with the US. President Trump has warned that he will impose 25% tariffs on Japanese goods if a deal isn't reached by August 1. Japan is particularly concerned about its automobile industry, the driver of its export-reliant economy. The Bank of Japan meets on July 31 and is widely expected to continue its wait-and-see stance on rate policy. The BoJ has been an outlier among major central banks as it looks to normalize policy and raise interest rates. However, with the economic turbulence and uncertainty due to President Trump's erratic tariff policy, the Bank has stayed on the sidelines and hasn't raised rates since January. Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI on Friday, the last tier-1 event before the rate meeting. There is resistance at 148.39 and 149.08 147.95 and 147.70 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDJPY Analysis : Trendline Breakout, Liquidity Trap & MMC Zone🔍 Full Technical Breakdown: In today’s USDJPY 2H chart, the market is unfolding exactly as per Mirror Market Concepts (MMC). We’ve identified a clean trendline breakout, and now price is reacting between the Central Zone (50%) and the Next Reversal Zone, where liquidity is expected to be filled. Let's break down each zone and movement to understand how price is being manipulated and where we can take action. 🔵 1. Trendline Confirmation – The First Sign of Strength The trendline was tested multiple times from the top, acting as resistance. But recently, price broke above this line with strength, signaling a potential bullish reversal. You've rightly marked it as "Trendline Confirmation" — this is where structure shifted from bearish to bullish. This is a classic MMC principle — breakout above manipulated resistance, followed by a pullback for re-entry. The breakout wasn’t just a wick; it had body strength, indicating real buyer presence. Now, price is pulling back to retest the trendline from above, a typical MMC behavior before continuing upward. ⚖️ 2. Central Zone – The 50% Trap This zone represents the midpoint of the last major impulsive move. It's where most traders get confused, and institutions re-balance their entries. You've highlighted: “It Can Reverse From Its 50% Zone” – and that’s accurate. According to MMC, this is where smart money traps late sellers, takes liquidity, and initiates the next bullish leg. If price holds above the 147.200–147.500 zone, we could see buyers stepping in aggressively. 🟩 3. Liquidity Fill – Next Reversal Zone If price doesn’t hold the Central Zone, we don’t panic — this is where MMC becomes powerful. Beneath current structure lies liquidity — previous stop hunts and unfilled orders. That area is your Next Reversal Zone around 146.200–146.400. It’s a liquidity trap — market might dip there just to manipulate emotional traders, then reverse with force. This is exactly where you’ve written “Liquidity Will Fill” — meaning smart money might fill orders there before moving up. 🧭 Possible Price Paths: 🔼 Bullish Scenario (High Probability): Trendline retest holds as support. Price bounces from the 50% Central Zone. Targets: 148.800 – 149.200 (previous highs and clean breakout zone). Confirmation: Bullish engulfing candle or strong wick rejection at Central Zone. 🔽 Bearish Trap Scenario (MMC-Based): Price dips below Central Zone into liquidity zone. Traps sellers and triggers stop-losses. Reverses sharply from Next Reversal Zone (Liquidity Zone). This is where smart money positions themselves for the real move up. 🧠 MMC Insight: This structure is textbook MMC – clean manipulation zones, false breakout traps, and a trending bias powered by smart liquidity plays. Trendline breakout = initial intent Central zone = confusion zone Liquidity trap = entry for smart money 📢 The goal is not to predict, but to react with precision when the market reveals its hand. 🕒 Timeframe: 2H 📌 Strategy: Mirror Market Concepts (MMC) | Trendline + Liquidity + Midpoint Trap 📈 Bias: Bullish, but waiting for confirmation at either Central or Liquidity Zone 🔍 Sentiment: Cautiously Optimistic
by GoldMasterTrades
USD/JPY probable move Target 1 waiting for confirmationWaiting for confirmation on candles and Real Volume 5min or 15min (power of Real Volume)-without real volume I am like a blind man in a dense forest :) Tools: - real volume (proper interpretation) - Fibonacci expansion ABC (an additional, new goal every day) - Fibonacci retracement (combined with the real volume, it shows me the real probable movement for the next hours and days) - volume support and resistance levels (confirmation of the price recovery level) - oversold/overbought index (focusing on 1H and 4H something is already overvalued or undervalued) - candlestick patterns (my entry point for 5 minutes or 15 minutes candlestick formations confirmed by particularly increasing volume).
Long
by GoldenLion33
USDJPY Falling Fast Bearish Momentum or Reversal Zone?USDJPY has dropped significantly and is now trading around 147.730, nearing a key historical support zone near 147.20 – 147.00. This area previously acted as a strong demand zone and may trigger a bounce or a breakdown depending on market sentiment. 🔹 Technical Overview (4H Chart): • Current Price: 147.73 • Support Zone: 147.20 – 147.00 • Resistance: 149.00 • Breakdown Target: 145.80 • Possible Bounce Target: 148.80 – 149.30 📊 Bias: I'm watching this zone closely. • If price holds above 147.00 with bullish candle – Long Setup toward 149.00 • If price breaks below 147.00 and closes on 4H – Short Setup toward 145.80 ⚠️ Use tight SL below support zone if buying.
Long
by SadarExplore
23
USDJPY 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Entry Detected )————- ➕ Objective: Precision Volume Execution Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout 🩸 Bullish From now Price : 147.450 ➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority ➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected. The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size. Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation. 🔥 Tactical Note: We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention. The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
Long
by Path_Of_Hanzo
10
A Dramatic Forecast in USDJPY Using Elliott and FibonacciIn April 2013 Jeff Kennedy of Elliott Wave Institute offered his "Dramatic Forecast Using Elliott and Fibonacci Guidelines" in USDJPY as part of his Elliott Wave Junctures educational podcasts. We have recreated his quarterly JPYUSD chart up to date to verify his predict and to follow up. Jeff''s forecast was realised spot on precisely 2 years later, in April 2015. We have now got a completed ABCD pattern which begs a 61.8 correction to ca. 125 over the course of the next 2-3 years. Note: Inverted log scale of USDJPY.
Long
by KOleg70
1
Bullish bounce off major support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot, which acts as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is a swing high resistance. Pivot: 145.96 1st Support: 144.98 1st Resistance: 149.18 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Yen Holds Firm as Ishiba Stays in OfficeThe yen hovered around 147.5 per dollar on Tuesday, holding its 1% gain as markets digested Japan’s election outcome. Despite the ruling coalition losing its upper house majority, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is likely to stay in office, easing political concerns. Ishiba confirmed his continued involvement in US trade negotiations. Meanwhile, opposition parties are expected to advocate for fiscal stimulus and tax cuts, which could pressure the yen and push bond yields higher. Trade discussions with the US remain on schedule for the August 1 deadline. Resistance is at 147.75, with major support at 146.15.
by ChartMage
Dollar to Weaken Against Yen Over Next 6 MonthsUSD/JPY is showing signs of a potential downtrend after failing to break above key resistance at 152.00. The pair has formed a double-top pattern on the weekly chart, with RSI divergence signaling weakening bullish momentum. A break below 150.00 could accelerate losses toward 145.00 (200-day MA) and possibly 140.00 over the next 6 months. The US dollar may weaken as the Fed is expected to start cutting rates in late 2024/early 2025, while the BoJ could cautiously tighten policy if wage growth persists. Narrowing US-Japan yield differentials (10-year yields) would reduce JPY carry-trade appeal, supporting yen strength. MoF’s verbal warnings and past interventions near 152.00 suggest strong resistance to further yen weakness. Sasha Charkhchian
Short
by Sashacharkhchi
USD/JPY Possible Bear Scenario🔍 Analysis Summary: USDJPY has failed to close above 146.1 on the weekly for the past 13 candles, showing clear signs of price exhaustion at this level. Price has also tapped into a marked 8HR bearish order block and printed a Daily Pin Bar — a strong reversal signal indicating potential downside. 📍Key Technicals:     •    Resistance Holding: 146.1–146.6 zone     •    Bearish Rejection: Pin Bar off resistance + order block     •    Risk Area (Stop Zone): Above 147.16     •    Target Zones: 144.2 (interim) → 142.4 (swing level) 🛠 Confluence:     •    Order block rejection     •    Multi-week resistance     •    Clean structure with defined R:R     •    Bearish candlestick confirmation 📊 Timeframe: 8HR 📉 Bias: Short 🔐 Risk Management: Proper stop loss in place above structure. Use personal risk limits. ⸻ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This setup is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Always conduct your own analysis and use risk management based on your personal trading plan.
by SlattYSL
USDJPY InsightHello to all our subscribers! Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to hit the boost and subscribe buttons! Key Points - There were speculations that the Liberal Democratic Party’s election defeat in Japan could lead to Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation. However, Ishiba announced that he will remain in office, easing concerns and reducing political risk. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that negotiations are progressing swiftly but emphasized there is no rush to reach a deal. Meanwhile, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick commented that reciprocal tariffs will proceed as scheduled, although negotiations can still continue. - With the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 31, attention is focused on Fed Chair Powell’s speech on July 22, which is expected to provide clues about the future path of monetary policy. Key Economic Events This Week + July 22: Fed Chair Powell’s speech + July 24: ECB interest rate decision USDJPY Chart Analysis After breaking above the 148 level and extending gains to the 149 level, the pair quickly reversed and pulled back to the 147 level. Currently, a further decline toward the 146 level appears likely, with strong support expected there. If confirmed, a rebound toward the 151 level is highly probable. However, if price action deviates from expectations, we will promptly revise our strategy.
Long
by shawntime_academy
SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLEGood morning and good afternoon traders, wherever you're dialed in from. Hope y’all are stacking those pips this week — whether you’re trend-riding, countering swings, or just sitting back letting setups come to you. 🔍 We’ve been hitting precise targets lately, and the tape’s been speaking loud and clear. Doesn’t matter what the sentiment says — we follow price, we follow structure. Right now, we’ve got a clean symmetrical triangle unfolding on USDJPY (4H). Marked up from point a to e, with that little fakeout dip at E (147.084) acting like a trap for the impatient. Textbook spring behavior. What catches my eye is the way price is coiling tight between the triangle’s ceiling and rising floor. We’re hovering just under 147.80, and a decisive push through that ceiling could unlock a sharp move toward the 150.50 zone (symmetrical projection). If you missed the earlier leg, don’t chase — let price show you real intent. A confirmed breakout above 148.00 is the trigger. If we break back below 146.90, reassess. No need to guess — we observe, we react. Let the market come to us. “We don’t force trades. We trade when the market invites us.”
Long
by TradeChartPatternsLikeThePros
USDJPY - Bullish Bias, In OB ZonePair: USDJPY (UJ) Bias: Bullish HTF Overview: Bullish structure remains intact — price currently pushing upward, respecting higher timeframe flow. Current Zone: Price is now sitting within the 30M OB, showing potential strength but no LTF confirmation yet. LTF Confirmation: Still in analysis mode — sitting on hands, waiting for clean reaction on 5M or 1M before considering entries. Entry Zone: 30M OB being monitored closely — ideal setup would include inducement and clear shift before entry. Targets: Next 1H high remains the first target — extended targets to be trailed if momentum builds. Mindset Note: Analysis first, execution second. Discipline is the edge — no rush until LTF gives the green light. Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
$USDJPY looking primed for another leg up.FX:USDJPY looking primed for another leg up. The weekly chart shows a textbook Stage 2 uptrend, holding strong above the 200 EMA. After a healthy pullback, the price is now testing a key pivot level around 147.60, which aligns with a major support zone. On the 4-hour chart, the Stochastic oscillator is approaching oversold territory, suggesting the recent selling pressure may be exhausted. A bounce from this support could be the catalyst for a move back to the 155-160 resistance area. #USDJPY #Forex #FX #Trading #Bullish
Long
by ImmaculateTony
USDJPY - M15 Downtrend with Supply Zone RetestThe USD/JPY market currently exhibits a downtrend with price rebounding slightly from recent lows. The key focus is the Lower Time Frame (LTF) Supply Zone around 148.2, which acts as a strong resistance level. The trading plan anticipates the price to rise into this LTF Supply Zone, where selling pressure is expected to resume, leading to a continuation of the downward trend. The ultimate target is near the previous strong low around 146.8, representing a potential demand zone and support level. This plan suggests watching for price action signals such as rejection wicks or bearish candlestick patterns within the supply zone to confirm entries for short positions. Managing risk involves placing stop losses just above the supply zone to protect against unexpected breakouts.
Short
by famousone_chn
USDJPY Will Fall! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 147.628. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 146.784 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
USDJPY Entry Zone: Current market is near your ideal entry zoneEntry Point (for Sell): Around 147.800 – 147.600 🔻 First Target (TP1): 147.050 – Labeled as "target point area" 🔻 Second Target (TP2): 146.300 – Labeled as "target point zone" 🛑 Invalid Zone (Sell Weakens): Above 148.600 – 149.000 (marked as “making clearly selling sides”) Entry Zone: Current market is near your ideal entry zone. A pullback or rejection around 147.800 provides a good short opportunity. 🎯 Take-Profit Zones: TP1: 147.050 (first support level / structure base) TP2: 146.300 (major demand zone) 📉 Stop-Loss (SL): Above 148.600
Short
by Ali_Explorer
USDJPY H1 I Bearish Reversal off the 61.8%Based on the H1 chart, the price is rising toward our sell entry level at 147.90, a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fib retracement. Our take profit is set at 146.78 an overlap support. The stop loss is set at 149.05, a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu