possible sell opportunity on USD/JPY We can see a good opportunity after a retest of the previous support area that became resistance showing a good selling oportunity on the USD/JPY pair.
JPYUSD trade ideas
ould the price reverse from here?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support that lines up with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 152.29
1st Support: 150.61
1st Resistance: 153.27
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USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Dollar USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Dollar Weakness and Yen Strength 28/11/2024
Introduction
The USDJPY pair is poised for a slight bearish bias today, driven by continued weakness in the U.S. dollar and growing demand for the Japanese yen (JPY). Factors such as falling U.S. Treasury yields, dovish Federal Reserve expectations, and geopolitical uncertainties favor the yen’s appreciation against the greenback. This analysis outlines the fundamental and technical factors shaping the USDJPY outlook for the day.
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Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY
1. Weak U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar is under pressure as market participants price in a prolonged pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes. Recent U.S. economic data, including a decline in durable goods orders and consumer sentiment, reinforces the dovish tone, limiting the dollar’s strength against the yen.
2. Japanese Yen Safe-Haven Appeal
The Japanese yen benefits from its status as a safe-haven currency amid lingering global economic uncertainties. Investors seeking stability are increasing their exposure to the yen, further driving USDJPY lower.
3. Declining U.S. Treasury Yields
U.S. Treasury yields continue to trend lower, reflecting reduced market expectations for future rate hikes. The 10-year yield, in particular, has fallen to multi-week lows, diminishing the attractiveness of the dollar in yield-sensitive currency pairs like USDJPY.
4. Japan’s Stable Monetary Policy Outlook
While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains its ultra-loose monetary policy, steady domestic inflation data and a resilient labor market lend implicit support to the yen, providing a counterbalance to the dollar’s weakness.
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Technical Analysis
Moving Averages and RSI
USDJPY is trading below its 50-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near neutral levels but trending downward, suggesting potential for further downside.
MACD and Key Levels
The MACD indicator remains in bearish territory, pointing to sustained selling pressure. Immediate support is seen at 147.20, with a break below potentially opening the door to the 146.50 level. Resistance is located at 148.50, which could cap any short-term rebounds.
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Conclusion
The USDJPY pair is expected to exhibit a slight bearish bias today, influenced by a weaker U.S. dollar, stronger demand for the Japanese yen, and falling Treasury yields. Traders should monitor key economic releases and shifts in risk sentiment, which could impact intraday movements.
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USDJPY H4 | Falling from a pullback?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 152.23, which is a pullback resistance close to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 150.32, an overlap support close to 161.8% Fibo extension
The stop loss will be at 153.40, a pullback resistance level.
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Fundamentals/Macros Analysis- Possible Short to 140 in 4-6 weeksWhether or not we see BOJ rate hikes in mid-December, I think this pair is due for more correction. In late 2023 we saw the pair down around the 140 level. USDJPY performance closely follows 2, 5, 10 year US bond yields. Following the fed's rate decreases in fall of 2024, bond yield rates are falling again and this pair will follow.
Don't forget the BOJ hasn't put rate hikes off the table, but I don't expect to see anything from BOJ unless we see a serious push to 160 before mid-December. I'm keeping an eye out for more data and a good entry, but I think a short position with a target of 140 is quite reasonable within the next 4-6 weeks. We have a good level of support there at 140.
I'd like to hear thoughts on the factors I described impacting this currency pair. I'm not ready to make a position yet, but I think we're looking good for a setup to a short. As always, the best time was a few months ago back at 160! ;)
short!We've got a breakout to the downside.
Maybe we get a push up to get a better posititon to go short
Talk of month end US Dollar selling | FX ResearchWe're seeing more "sell the fact" action on the Trump trade and hearing a lot of talk about month-end dollar outflows.
This seems to be factoring into price action today, with the dollar down across the board.
Dollar weakness has been especially prominent against the yen, where speculation of a December BOJ rate hike is ramping up. The euro has also gained relative strength, supported by more hawkish comments from ECB's Schnabel.
Earlier today, the RBNZ announced its well-telegraphed 50 basis point rate cut.
Looking ahead, a lot of U.S. economic data is set to be released today, as it will all be packed in before U.S. market participants leave their desks for the Thanksgiving holiday break.
Key standouts include initial jobless claims, durable goods, GDP, personal income and spending, core PCE, Chicago PMI, and pending home sales.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
Supercycle or Collapse? Here's What's Next for USD/JPYTrading Idea Breakdown for USD/JPY (12M Timeframe)
Key Structure Levels:
Current Price Zone: 147.67
Major Resistance Levels:
358.44 (Wave 5 Target/Range High): This represents the completion of the supercycle.
179.22 (12M Resistance Line): Significant midpoint equilibrium.
161.99 (Discount Zone - Wave 3-4 Pullback): Zone to watch for price re-accumulation.
Major Support Levels:
79.76-75.56 (Premium Support Zone): Base level for potential bullish accumulation if deeper pullback occurs.
118.75 (Equilibrium): Midpoint structure acting as current support.
0.00 (Cycle Bottom): Historical demand zone.
Key Elements of Wyckoff Analysis:
Phase Accumulation (1970-2012):
SC (Selling Climax) and AR (Automatic Rally) confirmed the range low (80.00 zone).
ST (Secondary Test) in Phase B showed consolidation preparing for markup.
Current Context - Re-Accumulation Range (2022-Present):
LPS (Last Point of Support) around 118.75 signals continued bullishness, aligning with Phase B support.
Wyckoff logic suggests price could aim for Phase D breakout and extend toward 358.44.
Elliott Wave Perspective:
Wave 1: Strong impulse ending near 120.00.
Wave 2: Corrective move down to 75.56, testing accumulation.
Wave 3: Extended impulse projected toward 301.03 (1.61 Fibonacci extension of Wave 1).
Wave 4: Potential pullback to 161.99, aligning with equilibrium.
Wave 5: Final target near 358.44, completing the supercycle.
Trading Plan:
Entry Strategy:
Look for pullback entries near 161.99 (Discount zone) or 118.75 (Equilibrium zone) if further corrective movements occur.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 179.22 (Range equilibrium midpoint of resistance).
TP2: 301.03 (Wave 3 Fibonacci target zone).
TP3: 358.44 (Wave 5 cycle completion target).
Stop-Loss Placement:
SL1: Below 118.75 (Equilibrium) if targeting mid-term bullish continuation.
SL2: Below 75.56 for aggressive buyers targeting the supercycle.
Potential Bias and Commentary:
Bullish Scenario: Momentum remains strong; the re-accumulation range suggests further upside potential aligning with Wyckoff's markup phase.
Bearish Risk: If price breaks below 118.75, a re-test of the premium zone (75.56) might occur before resuming long-term bullish trends.
27-11 USDJPY27-11 USDJPY after today's figures the Dollar seems to have reached the highs. we have initiated and executed a sell series at 151.275. Based on our signal system which gives a bearish score of -4 composed of: Cot Data -2, Retail sentiment 0, Seasonality 1, Trend reading -2, GDP 0, Manufacturing PMI 0, Services PMI 0, Retail Sales 2, Inflation -1, Employment Change 0, Unemployment Rate -1,
Interest Rates -1.
USD/JPYTo me it could fall from this price to 136.36and then, after a correction, fall back to its second support line.
Usdjpy D_TF Usdjpy D_TF
Congrats to those that took it
That's 360pips
That's huge
You can still find your entry
About 1,130 pips more to go
If you been following my analysis
I've been analyzing this for about 2 weeks ago
USD/JPY Daily Chart Analysis - Key Fibonacci Levels & Bearish BrThis analysis of the USD/JPY daily chart focuses on recent price action and Fibonacci retracement levels. The pair shows a clear bearish breakdown from the ascending channel, with the price currently testing the key 150.965 level. Support zones near 148.000 are critical, while resistance around 166.148 could act as a long-term target if bullish momentum resumes. The chart includes key Fibonacci levels and trendlines to watch for further price movement.
YEN CARRY TRADE ABC RALLY ENDED LOOK FOR 136 /129The chart posted is the yen carry trade We bottomed into my target 138 and then rallied just past my orginal abc target of 155.10 I now feel the the SH!T Is going to HIT THE FAN in ASSETS . Best of Trades THE WAVETIMER
usdjpy liq, fvgLiquidity grab on the 1H timeframe. Currently, there’s a break of structure and a fair value gap (FVG) that still needs to be filled. A solid setup for a good entry with a tight stop-loss.
USDJPY"I am considering a short trade on the USD/JPY pair. On the chart, we can see a potential order block from which we plan to open the short position. Currently, the price is in Phase C of Wyckoff's model, and I am expecting a test of the UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution) zone.
This implies that the price will likely reverse back to the order block, after which a price decline is expected. My target is set at the previous week's Tokyo session low.
This is a high-risk trade, so I will allocate only 1% of the deposit. The stop loss will be tight.
SP500
JPY/USD
USDJPY short entries this weekI will be entering short for mid to long term holds in usdjpy this week. I believe we have an abc cool off before next run.
USDJPY | DOUBLE BOTTOM USDJPY is on the buy on bigger time frame and we see some reversal signs there.
and then we see double bottom. DB or DT or very good reversal pattterns.
most of the trader trade double bottom wrong. the correct way is to wait when DB break its peak and then come back to for 3third touch or to break it.....
USDJPY UPDATE!!!!Good day gang
We up 75% in profits
We can close now or hold for full TP
Good luck gang
"USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trend Outlook"
In the 4-hour timeframe, the USD/JPY currency pair has recently broken below its ascending trendline, indicating a shift toward a bearish sentiment. The price is currently approaching the key support zone between 151.91 and 152.46, which aligns with the 0.786 and 0.886 Fibonacci retracement levels. This area is expected to act as a significant resistance if the price attempts a pullback.
The Ichimoku cloud indicates bearish momentum, with the price positioned below the cloud. Furthermore, the Alligator indicator shows a clear bearish crossover, confirming the continuation of the downward trend.
The next potential target for the bearish movement is the 149.03 level, which corresponds to the 1.414 Fibonacci extension and acts as a critical support zone.
Conclusion: If the price remains below the 151.91-152.46 resistance zone, further declines toward 149.03 are likely. However, a break above this resistance could invalidate the bearish scenario and signal a potential reversal. Traders should closely monitor these levels for confirmation of the next price direction.
DeGRAM | USDJPY rebound from supportUSDJPY is under the descending channel and trend lines.
The price has already reached the support level, which previously acted as a rebound point.
RSI has started to indicate oversold.
The chart has formed a harmonic pattern.
We expect a rebound after the support retest is completed.
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USD/JPY - H4 - Channel Breakout The USD/JPY pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel Breakout pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days.
USDJPY
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 154.00, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 151.30
2nd Support – 149.82
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Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
USDJPY Two Possible Areas for Reversal(Follow for more Valuable Updates)
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Do your own Research and Trade Wisely Never rely on my opinions.
Good Luck folks
