JPYUSD trade ideas
Gold's Final Push?Multi Time Frame Analysis:
1. Monthly Chart;
• RSI: Extremely Overbought at 84.66
• Volume: Declining – signals weakening buying pressure
2. Weekly Chart;
• Historical Volume Spike
• RSI: Overbought at 78.26
3. Daily Chart;
• Price near Upper Channel Line
• R2 (3246.25): Resistance/Trend Continuation Zone
• MML +2/8 (3281.25): Extreme OverShoot zone (POI)
• R3 (3315.96): Exhaustion Zone
• Gap at 3177.260 still unfilled
• RSI: 71.24 – overbought
• Pattern: Rising Wedge
4. 4H Chart;
• RSI: Overbought
• No Valid Correction
5. 2H Chart;
• RSI: Overbought
• MACD Histogram: Fading
• MACD Lines: Near Crossover
• Volume: Declining
6. 1H Chart;
• MACD Crossover occurred, histogram below zero
• Volume: Weakening
• Price: Still rising despite momentum loss
7. 30-Min Chart;
• MACD Downtrend but price pushing up
• Histogram below zero, divergence forming
• Volume: Dropping
• Near R2 Pivot
Gold appears to be in a trend exhaustion phase. Across higher and mid-timeframes, RSI is extremely overbought, volume is consistently declining, and the MACD is losing momentum. Price is approaching a critical zone between R2 (3246.25) and MML +2/8 (3281.25)—our points of interest (POI) for potential reversal.
If 3246.25 holds, we may see a correction. However, if price breaks above this level, the final resistance could be 3315.96 (R3 Exhaustion Zone). Any signs of inducement or fake breakout could trap buyers at the top (FOMO entry).
Confirmation signals to watch:
• Reversal Candlestick Patterns: Shooting Star, Evening Star, Bearish Engulfing, or multiple Doji formations.
Final Thoughts:
Gold is currently trading at elevated levels, showing signs of exhaustion across nearly all timeframes. With the RSI reading at an extreme 84.66 on the monthly chart, and volume drying up as price continues to rise, this suggests that the market is driven more by momentum and emotion than sustainable buying pressure. The presence of an unfilled breakaway gap at 3177.26, combined with key resistance zones approaching at R2 (3246.25), MML +2/8 (3281.25), and R3 (3315.96), indicates that Gold may be entering a Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) phase, often marked by impulsive buying and the final surge before a correction. Patterns like the Rising Wedge, MACD divergence, and consistent overbought RSI across MTFs reinforce the likelihood of a potential reversal.
However, due to the nature of FOMO-driven moves, the price could still spike before reversing—this is where inducement traps often catch late buyers. It’s crucial to remain patient and wait for proper confirmation signals such as bearish candlestick formations, MACD crossovers, or strong rejection wicks at resistance levels. If price reacts at these zones without breaking through decisively, it could be an ideal setup for short opportunities. Always protect your capital with a solid risk management strategy, use clearly defined stop-loss levels (preferably just above R3), and avoid emotional trading decisions. The technicals are aligning for a significant correction—what remains is the right trigger.
🎯 Potential Targets:
• Support Zone 1: 3210.75
• Gap Fill / 26.60% Fib: 3177.26
• Support Zone 2 / 38.20% Fib: 3131.00
• Support Zone 3 / 50% Fib: 3101.50
• Support Zone 4 / 64% Fib: 3052.79
• Final Target / 78.60% Fib: 3022.52
• Demand Zone: 2961.00
USD_JPY WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅USD_JPY is already making
A bearish pullback from the horizontal
Resistance of 144.500 while trading
In a downtrend so we are bearish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bearish move down
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USDJPY at Major Support Level - Will Buyers Step In?OANDA:USDJPY has reached a major support level, marked by significant buying pressure. This area has historically acted as a strong demand zone, increasing the likelihood of a bullish reaction if buyers step in again.
The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms a rejection from this support level, there is a high probability of an upward move. I anticipate that, if rejection occurs, the market may head higher toward the 147.570 level, which serves as a logical target within the current structure. However, a break below this support would invalidate the bullish bias and could lead to further downside.
This setup reflects the potential for a retracement after an impulsive move, supported by the confluence of previous price behavior and the current structure. If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Trade Recap cw15Quick Breakdown of my U/J position and one high risk missed one from FX Live. Looking forward
USDJPYswing structure is bearish . Daily fractals is bearish as well .
But the price just gave upside fractals shift -> possible to move upside toward marked liquidity .
and once the price will sweep liq & gave drawn fractals shift from Daily supply .
Then there will time for Sell in USDJPY. JPY index is coming down as well to tap into its' daily demand
Weekly Market Analysis - 12th Apr 2025Here is another weekly market analysis!
The US Dollar has been tanking, but respecting the higher timeframe PD Arrays nicely.
I'm anticipating lower prices for it, and share my thoughts in the video in relation to other forex pairs.
Good luck out there next week!
- R2F Trading
USDJPY RETRACEMENT Still on bearish,
If price action will not displace a body of a candle on our breakout the price will go up on our RETRACEMENT area 145.570
USD-JPY Risky Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
USD-JPY is trading in a
Downtrend and the pair
Is making a local pullback
But will soon hit a horizontal
Resistance level of 144.700
From where we will be
Expecting a further
Bearish move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USDJPYYEN took advantage of poor dollar and stayed strong this week,on strategy i see dollar reversal and dxy is doing so at fib 0.618 level ,hoping to reclaim 100 dollar mark.
USDJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W15 D11 Y25
USDJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W15 D11 Y25
Happy Friday Traders, It has been a week of sitting on capital. Being cautious, awaiting for breaks of structures at key areas and not not getting dragged into trades that do not fully present themselves. The clues have been there. The carrot has been continually dangled however as risk managers... You know how the saying goes.
We stay true to our trading plan.
We hold firm with what we know works.
We are aware of our market edge.
We know our "perfect" set up does present itself.
with that said, we are dynamic! We do of course entertain the "Imperfect" setup. We simply approach with caution.
A slightly different take. Can we snap the lows of Tokyo in the London session. Tap into the 4 hour order block, push bullish to break Lower time frame structure?
A quick setup with a take profit area where FRGNT anticipates a potential turn around in price short.
Lets see how it plays !
Trade well.
FRGNT X
USDJPY LONG POSITION FORECAST UPDATE Q2 W15 D11 Y25USDJPY LONG POSITION FORECAST UPDATE Q2 W15 D11 Y25
Good Friday to you, Traders!
Take a look at this morning analysis!
As per the morning brief, we await the price action to come to us.
-Awaiting the weekly order block rejection. Aligning with rejection of the 4 hour order block.
-Await of break of structure on the 15'.
-Have it confirmed with a break of structure on a lower time frame. Be it the 5' or 1'.
FRGNT, is current risk off the position and look forward to banking fun coupons on Friday as per the plan.
Happy weekend.
See you Sunday for a breakdown of all pairs.
Until then.
FRGNT X
USD/JPY Under Pressure – Bears Take the Lead After Break of Supp📊 USD/JPY Daily Technical Outlook – April 11, 2025
Overview:
The USD/JPY pair experienced a significant decline on Friday, opening at 145.22, reaching a high of 145.50, and a low of 142.04, before closing at 142.30. This downward movement reflects the continuation of the bearish trend from earlier in the week, influenced by safe-haven flows into the Japanese yen amid escalating trade tensions and weaker U.S. economic data.
Mitrade
📈 Current Market Structure:
After a period of consolidation, the pair broke below key support levels, signaling strong selling momentum. This move comes amid concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and increased demand for the Japanese yen as a safe-haven currency.
🔹 Key Resistance Levels:
143.45: The previous support level, now acting as immediate resistance. A break above this level could indicate a potential reversal.
145.08/145.91: A significant resistance zone. A move above this area could challenge the bearish outlook.
147.85: A major resistance area, which could be a target for buyers if the bullish trend resumes.
FOREX24.PRO
🔸 Key Support Levels:
142.04: The low for the day, which acts as immediate support. A stay above this level may prevent further declines.
Mitrade
139.59: A significant support level. A break below this could signal a continuation of the downtrend.
FX.co
137.92: Strong support, marking a previous high from March 2023.
FX.co
📐 Price Action Patterns:
The strong bearish candles in recent days indicate dominance by sellers. The breakout below previous support levels and the formation of lower lows support the continuation of the downtrend. However, traders should watch for potential reversal patterns as the price approaches key support areas.
🧭 Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Scenario: If USD/JPY holds above 142.04, the pair may attempt a rebound towards 143.45 and potentially 145.08/145.91, driven by short-term profit-taking and potential easing of risk-off sentiment.
❌ Bearish Scenario: If USD/JPY fails to sustain above 142.04, a decline to 139.59 could occur. A break below this level could lead to further declines towards 137.92.
📌 Conclusion:
USD/JPY is exhibiting strong bearish momentum, influenced by safe-haven flows into the Japanese yen and concerns over the U.S. economic outlook. A sustained break below support levels could lead to further declines. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels and stay informed on global economic developments.
Mitrade
Note: This analysis is based on data available up to April 11, 2025. Always monitor the latest developments and apply appropriate risk management when trading.
Yen Carry Trade & Rate Hike (BoJ)The USD/JPY pair is likely to fall toward the 140 level as two key factors weigh on the market: the unwinding of the yen carry trade and growing fears of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
For years, Japan’s ultra-low interest rates made the yen a favorite currency for carry trades, where investors borrow yen cheaply to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. However, as global markets face increased volatility and central banks tighten monetary policy, these trades are becoming less attractive. Investors are now unwinding these positions, which involves selling off foreign assets and buying back yen, strengthening the currency and putting downward pressure on USD/JPY.
At the same time, the BoJ has hinted it may soon raise interest rates as inflation in Japan shows signs of persistence. Even the expectation of a rate hike reduces the appeal of the dollar against the yen, as higher Japanese rates would narrow the interest rate differential. This makes the yen more appealing and further accelerates the unwinding of carry trades.
With these factors aligning, the USD/JPY pair potentially faces significant downward momentum, making a move toward the 140 level increasingly likely.
USDJPY What Next? BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the USDJPY next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 145.10
Bias - Bullish
Safe Stop Loss - 144.25
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 146.89
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDJPYCurrent Price: 142.868
Recent Trend: Bearish correction from highs above 146.000
📊 Technical Analysis:
🔻 Bearish Structure
USD/JPY has been in a clear downtrend over the past few sessions, pulling back from the 146.000 level.
Price is currently below the pivot zone (~143.700–144.100) which previously acted as support but now flipped to resistance.
📌 Key Levels:
Type Price Level Notes
Resistance 143.700–144.100 Pivot zone & breakdown area
Support 141.300 Minor horizontal support
Support 140.000 Strong psychological and historical level
🔀 Possible Scenarios:
Bearish Continuation:
If the price fails to reclaim the pivot zone, sellers may gain control again.
Breakdown below 141.300 opens the door to 140.000 next.
Bullish Reversal:
If price holds above current support and climbs back above 143.000, we may see a test of the pivot area.
A breakout above the pivot could push USD/JPY toward 144.500–145.000.
📰 Fundamental Factors to Watch
🟢 1. US Economic Data
Yesterday’s CPI (Inflation) showed slightly hotter-than-expected numbers ➝ Fed may lean hawkish ➝ bullish for USD
PPI data today will add clarity:
If PPI > expected: Fed tightening bias increases ➝ USD stronger ➝ USD/JPY up
If PPI < expected: Dovish shift ➝ USD weakens ➝ USD/JPY down
🔴 2. BOJ (Bank of Japan) Policy Outlook
BoJ remains ultra-dovish, but recent comments hinted at long-term inflation pressures.
If any signal of tightening or less dovish talk comes out, it could strengthen the Yen and pull USD/JPY lower.
📉 3. Bond Yield Watch
US-Japan 10-year yield spread is a major driver:
If US yields rise faster → USD/JPY goes up
If US yields fall or Japan yields rise → USD/JPY goes down
🔍 Sentiment:
“The market is in wait-and-see mode, hovering just above minor support. If PPI surprises higher, USD/JPY could bounce hard. But if sentiment sours, we may retest the 141.300 or even the psychological 140.000 support. Eyes on yields and the Fed narrative.”
USDJPY Wave Analysis – 11 April 2025
- USDJPY broke the support zone
- Likely to fall to support level 141.65
USDJPY currency pair recently broke the support zone between the support level 144.60 (which stopped wave 1 at the start of April, as can be seen below) and the support trendline of the daily down channel from January.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 3 – which belongs to wave (3) from the end of March.
Given the strongly bearish US dollar sentiment, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 141.65, former strong support from August and September.
[_] ONENTRYONENTRY
USDJPY- ONENTRY ' 2Fib Strategy '
Timeframe: 30 Minutes
Session: London Pre-Market (00:00 - 06:30 +2GMT)
Step 1: Identify the Overnight Range
Mark the high and low of the price range between 00:00 - 06:30 (+2GMT).
Wait for a clear breakout with a candle closing above (for longs) or below (for shorts) this range.
Step 2: Apply Fibonacci Levels
After the breakout, use the Fibonacci retracement tool:
Anchor Point 1: Start at the close of the breakout candle.
Anchor Point 2: Drag to the start of the impulse move (first candle of the range).
Key level for entry: 0.5 and 0.35 retracement.
Step 3: Trade Execution
Entry: Enter on a pullback to 0.5 and 0.35 Fib level after the breakout.
Stop Loss :
Long trades: Below the low of the breakout candle wick
Short trades: Above the high of the breakout candle wick
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.0 Fib (1:1 risk-reward).
TP2: 1.25 Fib extension.
TP3: 1.6 FIB extension
TP4: 2.3 Fib extension (runner position).
Step 4: Trade Management
Move SL to breakeven when price hits TP1.
LONG USDJPYBefore the news!
I will take this long position!
Buy at 142.853
SL (must have) 141.607
TP may be 146.715. I dont know!
Goodluck!
USD/JPY Bearish Trade Setup – SBR + DBD Zone Rejection📉 Trend Analysis:
🔴 Downtrend confirmed by lower highs and lower lows.
📉 Descending trendline indicates continuous bearish pressure.
🔹 Key Levels & Zones:
🔵 Resistance Zone (SBR + DBD) – 144.123 📍 (Sell Entry Point)
🟠 Stop Loss – 145.209 🚫 (Above resistance to avoid fake breakouts)
🟢 Target Point – 139.694 🎯 (Strong support area)
🏹 Expected Price Action:
🔸 Scenario:
🔺 Price moves up toward the resistance zone (🔵 SBR + DBD Zone)
🔻 Bears take control (Rejection expected)
⚡ Drop towards target at 139.694
📊 Trade Plan:
✅ Entry – Wait for rejection at 144.123 (🔵)
✅ Stop Loss – Keep at 145.209 (🛑🔺)
✅ Take Profit – Aim for 139.694 (✅🎯)
💡 Risk-Reward Ratio: Good (More reward than risk)
USD/JPY shows a bearish setupUSD/JPY shows a bearish setup, both in terms of technical patterns and fundamentals.
Technical: Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. Key levels 140-142 break below, then 135-137.
Fundamental:
Strengthening the yen - BOJ might raise rates twice, and possibly inflation will remain around 3% as recent wage hikes fuel inflation
Weakening the Dollar - falling U.S. Treasury Yields possibly to 3.5% range and below, Trump's intentions to weaken the dollar to make exports competitive and imports expensive.
Note: Last time, Trump handed over to Biden with DXY at around 90, and the current direction is towards the same.
Usdjpy 11 Apr 2025Bears are in control and price has creeped down due to risk aversion trade.
However, expect a relieve at least for the short term when the 5 waves down completes.
Still early but am looking out for longs. TLB or bullish candles will be welcome.
Good luck.
