JPYUSD trade ideas
DeGRAM | USDJPY Keeps the Demand Zone📊 Technical Analysis
● USD/JPY has broken the falling-wedge top and is holding above the 142.20 breakout line; that keeps 144.03 → 147.5 in scope.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● U.S. March retail sales surged 1.4 %, underscoring resilient demand.
✨ Summary
A wedge breakout plus firm U.S. data, a hawkish Fed and a dovish BOJ favour more dollar strength; holding above 142.20 keeps USD/JPY on track for $144.03–147.5.
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FX:USDJPY
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USDJPY... 4H chat partternThe 140.166 level on USD/JPY appears to be a historical support level. If price action previously bounced around this area, traders might be watching it as a key zone where buying interest could re-emerge.
To evaluate this level properly, consider:
1. *Past price reactions*: Did price previously reverse or consolidate around 140.166?
2. *Volume profile*: High volume near this level might strengthen its significance.
3. *Indicators*: Are RSI, MACD, or moving averages signaling oversold or potential reversal near this level?
4. *Fundamentals*: Watch for Bank of Japan and Fed policy signals or geopolitical developments, as they heavily influence USD/JPY.
MAJOR SUPPORT BUYMajor support zone holding strong. From weekly down to 1H, all signals align for a buy. Structure supports bullish continuation—watch closely.
USDJPY Poised to Retest Broken Trendline After Dovish BOJWe discussed the potential battle between bulls and bears near the trendline in our early April post. USDJPY bears ultimately won that battle, and the 140 target was reached. You can view the earlier post here:
Following the breakdown, the 140 level acted as support, and now an upward reaction has begun. At today’s meeting, the BOJ held rates steady at 0.50% as expected, and Governor Ueda delivered a dovish message. The BOJ lowered its core inflation forecast by 0.2% to 2.2% for 2025 and to 1.7% for 2026. The GDP forecast was also revised down from 1.1% to 0.5%.
These projections suggest the BOJ lacks full confidence in consistently reaching its 2% inflation target, though it's very close. However, the risk of tariffs complicates the outlook. Tariffs could negatively impact both growth and inflation, and the BOJ will likely hold off on further rate hikes for at least a few meetings to observe early effects.
In the context of a more dovish BOJ and the dollar index stabilizing after weeks of declines, USDJPY is staging a positive correction. A retest of the broken trendline appears likely, with potential for the short-term rally to extend toward 148.50. Beyond that point, the market will face a critical decision. If the upward reaction stalls, another medium-term move back toward 140 remains a strong possibility.
USDJPY feels like it's about to break the weekly downtrendLast week weekly candle closed as a bullish pinbar, signalling buying pressure. It has tried to break upwards twice this week already and I believe the third time would be the charm before we end the week with NFP.
However, the road up would be tough with all the FVGs hence TP1 and 2 is relatively close to each other.
Please do not risk more than 1% per trade。
If you like the idea, please help like the post and comment down your thoughts below! I would love to hear your thoughts!
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 01, 2025 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is trading with small losses, hovering around the mid-143.00s after disappointing US economic growth data and weak Japanese economic reports caused a divergence in sentiment between the two currencies. The US economy contracted 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, the first contraction since 2022, missing growth expectations and highlighting the impact of rising imports and government spending cuts. At the same time, Japan released weaker-than-expected industrial production and retail sales data, limiting the yen's gains even as global risk appetite declined.
On the macroeconomic front, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP contracted 0.3% in Q1, missing the market forecast for a 0.4% increase and slowing sharply from the 2.4% growth in Q4 2024. The contraction was primarily driven by a 41 per cent rise in imports and lower government spending. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, fell to 2.3 per cent year-on-year, in line with expectations and below February's 2.5 per cent. Other data showed a slowdown in job creation, with the ADP report showing just 62,000 new jobs in April against expectations of 108,000.
Despite the softer data, personal spending remained flat in March, rising 0.7%, while incomes rose 0.5%. However, market sentiment turned cautious, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 200 points to stagnate around 40,300.
In Japan, the yen weakened 0.5% against the dollar as industrial production and retail sales data disappointed, highlighting the fragility of the domestic economy.
Trade recommendation: BUY 144.20, SL 144.00, TP 145.00
USDJPY POTENTIAL SELL OPPORTUNITY!Price currently retraced to a pullback resistance providing us with a potential sell opportunity. We anticipate a drop in price from the current price.
Fundamentally JPY being the regional safe haven currency has performed over 5.8% increase against dollar this year. The current trade war between US & China might make it possible for JPY to perform more efficiently against USD. and also, the BoJ interested rate remain unchanged.
usdjpyyou see it self on chart, where sell area and TP.
“When you learn to let go of the need to be right, being wrong gradually lose its power to disturb you.”
― Yvan Byeajee
Technicals USDJPY Key Level (Horizontal Resistance)
A horizontal resistance zone around 143.90 has been tested multiple times.
Price is currently retesting this zone, marked as an "Entry Zone", suggesting a potential breakout or rejection.
2. Price Structure
Prior downtrend bottomed near 140.00, then formed higher lows, showing a potential trend reversal.
Current price is approaching the resistance with strong bullish candles, indicating possible momentum buildup.
3. Volume
Volume spikes align with swing highs and lows, suggesting these moves were backed by stronger participation.
4. Scenarios Outlined
Bullish Path (Black Arrow): Breakout above the entry zone could lead to targets near 147.00–150.00, continuing a bullish reversal.
Bearish Path (Red Wave): Rejection at the resistance may cause a drop toward 140.00, forming a ranging or distribution pattern.
The Fed (USD) maintains relatively high interest rates, while the BoJ (JPY) continues a dovish stance, creating upward pressure on USD/JPY.
USD/JPY ANALYSIS📈 Technical Analysis Report – USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair is exhibiting a strong bullish correction following a recent phase of dollar weakness against the yen.
Price action has regained momentum, moving above key moving averages, which reinforces the bullish technical outlook.
At present, the pair is trading near the 100 level on major technical indicators, suggesting potential for further upside.
Expectations are for a continued rise from the 143 area towards the 148 level in the upcoming sessions, provided the bullish momentum remains intact.
📌 Key Notes:
Bullish momentum strengthening above moving averages.
Target zones identified between 143 and 148.
Monitoring price behavior around critical resistance levels.
⚠️ Risk Warning:
Effective risk management and capital discipline remain essential for sustainable success in financial markets. Always ensure proper position sizing and avoid overexposure.
Wishing all traders continued success! 📊
#Forex #USDJPY #MarketAnalysis #TechnicalOutlook #RiskManagement #TradingSuccess
Hide Divergent system tradingIt's so simple look at indicator Osilator. I used AO to see hide Divergent there. The hide Divergent can tell u. The trend will be change in shortly . It can be corection or change trend current time frame
USDJPY Bearish MAYAs we welcome a new month, it is only right that we get a monthly overview. We can see yet another bearish flag here, so for most of may, we will be selling UJ
USDJPY Bearish Forecast, More Bearish Order FlowAfter the recent change of character from Monday, UJ continued lower and broke the H1 structure. As we all know, whenever you get a break of structure, expect a pullback. On the H4 there is a nice bearish OB which serves as a nice point of interest for price to rally back towards, be mindful this OB is big so we don't know what to expect once price reaches it.
For now this is how I see the dollar heading towards.
USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisCOT Report Analysis:
Overal we can see strong bearish sentiment in the COT.
and price will most likely continue lower - in the longterm.
Because those short must be closed one day and it will be below the lows.
Also if Market makers wants to build longs they will be also doing it below the
lows. For new there is forming counter trend buy setup which I will probably take
but its not point of this sentiment analysis. This is bigger picture view and if Market
makers are bearish my longs countertrend trades will be taken with 1/2 risk than usually
/b]
Hey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. Im always trying to trade with the Big players so knowing their positions is good thing.
Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
I created this simple free indicator which you can find in the my scripts. It's highlighting the day of the real report - Tuesday.
Here is the tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
USDJPY: Looking for a double topwaiting for the currency to form a double top, based on the support and resistance plus the trend it is highly likely it will form a double top
USD/JPY Massive Support into BoJThe 140.00 level in USD/JPY has so far held the lows in 2025 after that price did the same in 2024. There was just one day of testing below that price last year and it was around the weekly open of the first FOMC rate cut for the last cycle. Sellers couldn't find much momentum below and a couple days later, when the Fed did actually cut, price put in a higher-low and then eventually reversed in Q4.
But at this stage it looks more and more like we'll see eventual tightening of rates between the U.S. and Japan as inflation in Japan remains elevated and growth in the US somewhat weak.
Timing remains the issue and USD/JPY has brewed several bear traps already this year. It seems unlikely that the BoJ will be too aggressive towards rate moves with the uncertainty of tariffs looming overhead, but tonight's rate decision is a quarterly meeting meaning the Bank will issue updated outlooks, and when they last did this on January 27th it allowed for a lower-low in USD/JPY that continued to spiral lower until the 140.00 bounce that showed last week.
For resistance, 145.00 is a major level as this was prior support that hasn't yet been tested as resistance. - js
Could the price bounce from here?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 142.39
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that line sup with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 141.95
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 143.13
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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USDJPY BUYYou do not want to miss this double bottom buy on USDJPY. It will require some patience, but the entry has not been activated yet. Take note of all the coordinates
USD/JPY(20250430)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The European Central Bank expects prices to rise 2.9% over the next 12 months, up from 2.6% in February, according to a monthly survey released on Tuesday. This is the highest level since April 2024. The three-year indicator rose slightly to 2.5%. The ECB's first five-year forecast was 2.1%.
Technical analysis:
Today's long-short boundary:
142.32
Support and resistance levels:
143.13
142.83
142.63
142.01
141.81
141.51
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 142.32, consider buying, the first target price is 143.00
If the price breaks through 142.01, consider selling, the first target price is 141.81
