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Will the revealed labor data continue to support USDJPY?Macro theme: - The latest Sep NFP, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings have all surpassed market expectations. As a result, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the 32% probability of a 0.50% rate cut in November has been eliminated, shifting the odds toward a likely rate freeze instead. - Japan's newly appointed economic minister expressed support for further interest rate hikes as long as they do not destabilize the economy or markets, signalling confidence in the BoJ's approach. - The yen's outlook remains uncertain, influenced by the robust US labor market and ambiguity surrounding the BoJ's potential rate hikes. Technical theme: - USDJPY quickly recovered from the previous downtrend and closed above both EMAs, indicating a solid upward momentum. - If USDJPY extends its gain to close above 149.25, USDJPY may retest the resistance around 152.00. - On the contrary, a failure to close above 149.25 may prompt a temporary correction within 147.30-149.25 until an apparent breakout occurs. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
What Is a Global Macro Strategy?What Is a Global Macro Strategy, and How Do Traders Use It in Trading? A global macro strategy is a comprehensive investment and trading approach that includes analysis of economic, political, and global trends to make decisions. This article delves into the core components, analytical tools, and practical applications of global macro strategy, providing a detailed outline for understanding and implementing this sophisticated trading method. Understanding Global Macro Strategy Global macro strategy is an investment and trading approach that focuses on the analysis and interpretation of economic and political events on a global scale. This strategy is typically employed by hedge funds and mutual funds, which take positions based on macroeconomic principles and geopolitical developments, including interest rates, currency movements, and political changes. However, many individual traders also opt for this approach, but it typically requires a deep understanding of the global economic system and the interrelated factors that drive markets. The core idea behind global macro strategy is to leverage broad market trends and economic shifts rather than focusing on individual assets, companies or sectors. Funds taking this approach are considered highly opportunistic, quickly adapting to changing market conditions and capitalising on emerging trends. Such an approach provides flexibility, allowing investors to take both long and short positions across various asset classes such as equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities. For instance, if a fund manager anticipates a recession in a particular country, they might short-sell that country's stock indices while taking long positions in more stable regions​. The Core Components of Global Macro Strategy Global macro trading strategies typically revolve around analysing and making decisions based on specific aspects, typically macroeconomic indicators, political events, and global trends. 1. Economic Indicators Economic indicators are critical to global macro strategy as they provide insights into the overall health and direction of economies. Key indicators include: - Gross Domestic Product (GDP): GDP measures a country's economic output and growth. A rising GDP indicates economic expansion, which can positively affect equity markets, while a declining GDP may signal a recession, prompting defensive investment strategies. - Inflation Rates: Inflation impacts purchasing power and interest rates. High inflation might lead to tighter monetary policy, positively affecting bond yields and domestic currency values. Conversely, low inflation could lead to more accommodative policies, boosting equities. - Employment Figures: Employment rates indicate economic stability. High employment usually correlates with economic growth, while high unemployment can signal economic distress. Market participants analyse employment data to gauge future economic performance and central bank policies. 2. Political and Geopolitical Factors Political stability and geopolitical events significantly influence global markets. Key factors include: - Government Policies: Fiscal policies (taxation and government spending) and monetary policies (central bank actions) directly impact economic performance. For instance, expansionary policies can boost economic growth, while contractionary policies can slow it down. - International Relations: Trade agreements, tariffs, and diplomatic relations between countries affect global trade and investment flows. For example, trade tensions between major economies can lead to market volatility and shifts in investment strategies. - Geopolitical Events: Conflicts, elections, and regulatory changes can cause market uncertainty and volatility. Investors monitor these events to adjust their portfolios accordingly, often seeking so-called safe-haven assets during periods of instability. 3. Global Trends Global macro strategists also pay close attention to broad, long-term trends that shape the global economy. Important trends include: - Technological Advancements: Innovations in technology can drive economic growth and create new investment opportunities. For instance, the rise of digital currencies and advancements in artificial intelligence impact various sectors differently. - Demographic Shifts: Changes in population dynamics, such as ageing populations or urbanisation, affect labour markets, consumption patterns, and economic growth. These shifts influence long-term investment strategies. - Environmental Changes: Climate change and environmental policies are increasingly impacting global markets. Investments in renewable energy and sustainable practices are growing as governments and companies address environmental concerns. How Global Macro Strategy Influences Trading Decisions Using global macro strategies is all about making decisions based on the broad economic landscape. It requires analysing the interplay of macroeconomic factors and their effects across different asset classes. Here’s how it works: Market Correlations and Interdependencies Global macro strategists analyse how different markets are interlinked. For example, a rise in US interest rates might strengthen the US dollar, impacting emerging market currencies and commodities priced in dollars, such as gold and oil​. A hike can also strengthen bond yields, which are inversely correlated to bond prices and often equities. However, many factors may drive a particular asset’s price movements at any given time. The Canadian dollar is highly correlated to oil, while the price of oil itself can be correlated to expectations for global economic growth. Global macro investing and trading revolves around interpreting these various interdependencies with a structured approach. Impact on Different Asset Classes The impact of macro factors has a distinct effect across varying asset classes. Want to explore and trade the movements of assets within different classes via CFDs? Head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to get started with real-time charts and more than 1,200 trading tools. Equities Investors might use global macro analysis to identify countries or sectors poised for growth. For instance, if a country’s GDP is expected to rise, equities in that region may see upward momentum. Conversely, if geopolitical tensions are high, investors might reduce exposure to affected equities to avoid potential losses​. Bonds Interest rate expectations are crucial for bond trading. When central banks signal rate hikes to combat inflation, bond prices typically fall due to higher yields. Investors can adjust their bond portfolios based on anticipated central bank actions​. Currencies Currency markets are highly sensitive to macroeconomic data. For example, a stronger-than-expected US jobs report can boost the dollar as traders anticipate tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Conversely, political instability in a region can lead to currency depreciation, which also creates potential trading opportunities. Commodities Global macro trends such as economic growth or contraction directly impact commodity prices. For instance, increased industrial activity in China can drive demand for metals like copper. Conversely, an economic slowdown might reduce oil demand, lowering its prices. Investors may use these insights to decide on long and short commodity positions​. Discretionary vs Systematic Global Macro Strategies Global macro strategies can be broadly categorised into discretionary and systematic approaches, each with distinct methodologies and characteristics. Discretionary Global Macro Strategies Discretionary strategies rely on the judgement and expertise of fund managers. These investors manually interpret macroeconomic data, geopolitical events, and market sentiment to make decisions. They leverage their experience to form opinions on how these factors will impact various asset classes, often making adjustments based on their insights and intuition. This approach allows for flexibility and adaptability, as investors can respond to unexpected market changes and emerging trends. However, it also introduces a degree of subjectivity and potential for bias, as the investor’s perspective influences decisions​. Systematic Global Macro Strategies Systematic strategies, on the other hand, use quantitative models and algorithms to drive investment decisions. These models analyse large sets of historical and real-time data to identify patterns and trends and are typically only used by professional investors and funds. The approach is rule-based, minimising human intervention and emotional bias. Systematic strategies are typically more consistent and can handle vast amounts of data to generate trading signals. They excel in environments where market conditions follow historical patterns but may struggle during unprecedented events (like black swans) that the models haven’t been trained to handle​. Tools for Implementing a Global Macro Strategy Implementing a global macro strategy involves a comprehensive set of tools and techniques that help investors make informed decisions based on macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Central Bank Reports and Speeches Reading central bank monetary policy reports and speeches helps market participants understand future policy directions, particularly speeches by voting members of a monetary policy committee. For instance, the Federal Reserve’s statements can signal upcoming interest rate changes impacting currency and bond markets​. Economic Indicators Analysing indicators like GDP growth, inflation rates, and employment figures provides insights into the country’s economic health and future trends. These indicators can help analyse the growth or decline of an economy and its related markets. Global News Staying updated with global economic and geopolitical news is crucial. Events like trade wars, elections, and natural disasters can significantly impact markets, and being informed allows market participants to anticipate and react to these changes​ before others catch on. Long-Term Economic Trends Understanding long-term emerging economic trends, such as demographic shifts or technological advancements, helps identify investment opportunities in markets and sectors poised for growth. Good examples include ageing populations, the shift towards renewable energy, and food/water insecurity. Correlations and Interdependencies It is vital to recognise the interdependencies between different markets and assets. For example, increasing oil prices might affect currency values in oil-exporting countries like Canada and Norway, offering opportunities in forex markets. Equity/Fund Weighting Investors can understand the weighting of companies in an index or fund to gauge its future performance. For instance, Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia currently collectively account for around 20% of the S&P 500’s weighting. Therefore, even if an index’s smaller components are lagging behind, understanding the expected price movements of its biggest components can provide an idea of the broader index’s performance. Alternative Data Alternative data includes non-traditional data sources such as satellite imagery, web traffic, and social media activity. For instance, some hedge funds use satellite imagery to assess how busy a particular retailer is; if footfall is misaligned with the current bullishness surrounding the retailer, then the fund may take a short position in anticipation of lower revenues and generally worse earnings results. While most retail traders won’t have access to this kind of costly data, it’s always good to think outside the box in a global macro strategy. Sentiment and Positioning Analysis Sentiment analysis involves monitoring news, reports, and market sentiment indicators to gauge investor mood and potential market reactions, such as CNN’s Fear and Greed Index. Positioning analysis, on the other hand, looks at the positions reported by financial institutions, like Commitment of Traders (COT) reports, which break down the positions held by different types of traders in futures markets, and SEC Form 13F reports, which are a quarterly snapshot of holdings by institutional investors. Expert Opinions and Reports Considering expert opinions and in-depth research reports can provide additional perspectives and insights, helping to validate or challenge existing strategies and assumptions​. Many banks offer their own individual analyses of macroeconomic conditions, usually under the Research or Insights section of their websites. Publishing platforms can also provide access to detailed analysis of macro conditions by professional traders. The Bottom Line Understanding and implementing a global macro strategy can be a valuable avenue for any type of trader looking to enhance their decision-making processes. Using these macroeconomic insights, it might become easier to navigate the complexities of global financial markets. To implement macro strategies and explore opportunities in forex, commodities, indices, and stocks CFDs, open an FXOpen account today and start your journey with a broker you can trust. FAQs What Is Macro Trading? Macro trading involves making trading or investment decisions based on the analysis of macroeconomic trends and global events. Traders consider economic, geopolitical, and emerging factors to identify opportunities across various asset classes. What Is a Macro Strategy? A macro strategy focuses on broad economic and political factors to guide decisions. It may include analysing global economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical events to analyse market movements and allocate assets accordingly. What Is the Difference Between Micro and Macro Trading? Micro trading focuses on the performance of individual companies or sectors, analysing specific financial statements and market positions. In contrast, macro trading looks at broader economic trends and geopolitical events that impact entire markets or economies, making decisions based on these larger-scale factors. Who Are the Famous Global Macro Traders? Famous global macro traders include George Soros, known for his bet against the British pound in 1992, and Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates. Paul Tudor Jones and Louis Bacon are also notable for their successful application of macro trading strategies​. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
ACCUMILATION PHASE ENDINGThere is a large view that promises an ending accumulation into a possible expansion, the day chart shows that either the low preceded will be a swing or it will be taken, the only way is to be ready for an expansion, if it expands lower we will see with the high that created a mitigation being respected, i tmight still show bearish moves and not respect that high, but we will have to resort to the range for entering, tightest premium setups, high risk typa thing. Lemme see it for the ones tryna run with the bulls, i'll be back
by TheDemoTrader_SA
LIQUIDITY CONCEPT MODULEToday, I’m focusing on identifying potential buying opportunities in this trade. I'm analyzing market trends, recent price movements, and key support levels to determine the best entry point. I'm particularly interested in signs of bullish momentum, such as increased volume or positive news catalysts that could drive the price higher. By keeping a close eye on technical indicators and market sentiment, I'm aiming to position myself strategically for a favorable trade outcome. So wait and watch when price enter into our zone and which trade market will give to us. Always use proper money management and R:R ratio. Always use stoploss for your trade. # USDJPY 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Long
by TradeTacticsreal
2
USD/JPY "GOPHER" Bank Money Heist Plan on Bullish Side.Hola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰 This is our master plan to Heist USD/JPY "GOPHER" Bank based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 4H timeframe Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
Long
by Thief_Trader
Market Fundamental Analysis for 9 October 2024 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 21:00 GMT+3. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes USDJPY: The Japanese yen (JPY) saw some intraday selling on Tuesday, which helped the USD/JPY pair pause its modest pullback from its highest level since August the previous day. The latest data released on Tuesday showed a decline in real wages in Japan in August, following two months of growth. Additionally, there was a reduction in household spending, which has led to concerns about the resilience of private consumption and the potential for a sustained economic recovery. This development coincides with critical remarks from Japan's new Prime Minister regarding monetary policy, contributing to uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) plans to raise rates further. In addition, the prospect of a ceasefire between Lebanon's Hezbollah and Israel has contributed to the decline in the perceived safety of the Japanese Yen in the lead-up to Japan's snap election on 27 October. However, speculation that Japanese authorities will intervene in the currency market to support the national currency has prevented a more aggressive stance on the part of those betting on a decline in the yen. Furthermore, the weak demand for the US dollar (USD) prevented the USD/JPY pair from capitalising on the overnight rebound from the 147.350-147.300 area, resulting in a limited price range during Wednesday's Asian session. Furthermore, investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of the minutes of the September FOMC meeting, scheduled for today. This data, along with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), will play a pivotal role in influencing the US dollar price dynamics in the near term and will help determine the next stage of directional movement of the currency pair. Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY Set to Surge Higher – Targeting 150.00?Dear traders! USDJPY is currently maintaining a fairly steady uptrend, hovering around 147.64 despite a slight 0.34% adjustment downwards during the day. In my personal view, this correction is largely due to the pair encountering the upper boundary of the short-term rising channel. However, upon closer inspection, technical factors such as the rising wedge and the EMA 34.89 remain strong, indicating that the appeal of this pair is far from over. Considering these factors, Ben’s personal opinion is that USDJPY will likely continue its upward momentum, with a potential target around 150.00. Wishing you all successful and prosperous trading!
Long
by Bentradegold
1
USDJPY Analysis: Potential Retracement AheadOver the past few days, USDJPY has reached a new high, reflecting ongoing strength in the dollar amid recent economic data releases. However, a closer examination of the 1-hour timeframe indicates a lack of further upside potential. Key observations include: Technical Indicators: Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions, signaling that a correction may be on the horizon. Fibonacci Levels: A retracement of up to 50% seems plausible, aligning with historical support levels. Economic Calendar: Upcoming economic events, including U.S. job reports and inflation data, could add volatility. Traders should stay alert for potential impacts on USDJPY. Quick reminder: Always ensure proper risk management when trading.
Short
by billionaire_guru
1
USDJPY: Bullish Move After BreakoutTake a look at the price movement of USDJPY chart. The price successfully surpassed a significant horizontal resistance level and closed above it on a shorter-term chart. Following the breakout, the price underwent a corrective movement on a 4-hour chart, forming a bullish flag pattern. As the New York trading session began, the market managed to break its resistance level, indicating a high likelihood of further growth. The target price to watch for is 149.37.
Long
by linofx1
1
#H3 USDJPY AnalysisInstrument: Time Frame: H3 Chart Observations: 1. Identified strong Buyer and Seller zones within a Parallel channel flow with Bullish trend. 2. Trend has consistently respected Seller and Buyers Zone 3 times with instances of reversal. 4. Price is reversing to Bullish upon hitting 147.400 5. Current price action shows respect for the Resistance zone/Sellers Zone again 6. Fast Moving Average line has also crossed the Slow moving Average line from Downside to up Trading Strategy: Put Your Entries in the Zone of 148.200_148.300 for Buy upto 151.000 Putting Stop Loss= 147.000
Long
by Fxjames0009
Anticipate A Short Term Rally On The Dollar Before The Sell-OffPairs are developing as anticipated and still holding GBPJPY LONG after a near miss of my stop loss order. I'm anticipating a rally on the dollar heading into Wednesday's trading session as price has now broken out of the range but I do see the rally as a liquidity grab within the 1D Order Block before we sell off as part of a larger correction post the bullish NFP rally. With this in mind, my bias for Wednesday's trading sessions are as follows: 1. EURUSD - SHORT 2. AUDUSD - SHORT 3. GBPJPY - LONG 4. USDJPY - LONG Be conservative with your take profit levels as you'll potentially be trading an inducement before the primary distribution for the week.
Long
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
1
USDJPY Waiting for this perfect sell opportunity.Two weeks ago (September 25, see chart below) we gave a strong multi-month buy signal on the USDJPY pair and it couldn't have had a better timing: Last week recorded a massive 1W green candle, the strongest one in more than 2 years that almost tested the 1W MA50. Today we will be breaking down this long-term buy opportunity on the lower 1D time-frame. As you can see, the price is approaching the 1D MA100 (green trend-line)/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Resistance cluster. This is of very high importance as during the previous Channel Up bottom in early 2023, the two formed a Bearish Cross (February 27 2023) and just a few days later the pair topped and was rejected on the 1D MA200. The result was a pull-back to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Long-term we remain bullish but on the short-term we will be waiting for this rejection opportunity in order to short and target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 146.000. Notice also that the high symmetry on the RSI sequences among the two bottom fractals also indicates that we are just before the 1D MA100/ 200 Bearish Cross took place. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
USDJPY Rebound Faces Pushback at Key ResistanceAfter the Fed’s jumbo pivot in September and aggressive easing path, Chair Powell adopted a more reserved approach at the start of the previous week. The cautious messaging was extrapolated at the end of that same week by the strong jobs report. Markets have now priced out bets for another outsized move, expecting 50 bps of cuts by the end of the year, in line with the Fed’s projections. At the same time, the Bank of Japan has shifted to a more patient approach to monetary tightening, after last month's hold, removing guidance for further hikes ahead. The August deceleration in wage growth adds a reason for caution, while the current political landscape does not favor aggressive tightening. With elections due later this month, the new Prime Minister does not see the need for more hikes. As a result of these developments, USD/JPY posted its best week of the year and extends its gains into the daily Ichimoku Cloud, testing the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci. This creates scope for further recovery towards 151.90, but we are cautious about sustained advance as the upside is unfriendly technically and fundamentally. Inflation (ex-fresh food) in Japan has been rising for the past four months and remains above the 2% target for more than two years, wages are elevated and GDP posted strong growth in Q2. One more rate hike within the year is still reasonable and BoJ officials still see more tightening if the economy evolves as projected. Chair Powell may have struck a more cautious tone, but officials still expect another 150 bps of cuts by the end of next year, so the broader policy dynamics remains unfavorable for USD/JPY. The pair faces pushback at the 38.2% Fibonacci and rejection could send it back below the EMA200 (black line) and reaffirm the bearish bias. This would in turn create scope for new 2024 lows (139.57), although strong catalyst would be required. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
by FXCM