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USDJPY - Potential Volatility AlertThose of you that follow USDJPY and yen crosses in general, know how quickly they can change direction within a short time frame, especially when there are big event drivers like the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions scheduled within 12 hours of each other. That is the case tonight, with the Fed interest rate decision released at 1900 GMT and the BoJ interest rate decision released early on Thursday morning at 0300 GMT. Current market expectations are for the Fed to cut 25bp (0.25%) and for BoJ to remain unchanged, potentially holding off on a further rate hike until early 2025. However, there is always the chance that either central bank produces a surprise which may increase FX market volatility. Also, in play are the comments from Fed Chairman Powell in the press conference which starts at 1930 GMT on Wednesday. There is some nervousness amongst traders surrounding what Fed policymakers may signal regarding the pace of rate cuts during 2025, given how strong the US economic data readings have been recently. Similarly, the comments of BoJ Governor Ueda regarding inflation, strength of the Japanese economy, and future rate hikes, are also important when he speaks in the BoJ press conference which starts at 0630 GMT on Thursday. USDJPY – Potential Chart Levels to Watch Clearly, the reaction to the Fed and BoJ announcements may have significant implications for USDJPY. As such, you should be aware of the potential for greater volatility which can increase risks for any open positions during these uncertain periods.  The reaction to the announcements may see swift changes in direction of price and sharp reversals of previous activity. Reduction of position sizes and more proactive placement of stops maybe required over this period.  With that in mind, we want to look at possible support and resistance levels traders may be focusing on, up to and over these decisions.  Resistance Points to Watch   Having established a low of 148.64 on December 3rd a recovery period has developed, seeing USDJPY push up to 1 month highs of 154.48 (December 16th high) at the start of this week. A possible positive development within this move higher has been the closing break above the Bollinger mid-average (currently at 152.09). This average can often act as a resistance level while falling within a downtrend in price, so the break higher above this line last week, and the mid-average changing direction from declining to flat, may reflect a potential short term momentum shift. Next resistance levels could now be marked by the November 20th session high of 155.89, or even 156.75, which was the November monthly upside extreme. Closing breaks of these levels, if seen, while not a guarantee of future upside, may be a sign of further price strength towards the July 3rd high of 161.95, Support Levels   With any potential reaction to either the Fed or BoJ announcements providing the possibility for a swift reversal of recent upside USDJPY strength, we must be aware of some support levels.  The first support focus may be the Bollinger mid-average we discussed earlier at 152.09. Interestingly, this level is very similar to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the December recovery, which stands at 152.15. So, breaks below this area could be a trigger for a more extended phase of USDJPY weakness.  If the break lower was to occur, it may open the possibility of a test of the deeper 61.8 retracement level at 150.79, or even a further move towards 148.63, which is the December monthly low, although this will only be determined by future price action and is in no way guaranteed. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
USD/JPY (24/12): Continuing UptrendToday, the USD/JPY pair is heavily influenced by the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Although the current interest rate of the BoJ is 0.25%, the BoJ is expected to consider raising it to 1.0% by the end of 2025 if inflation and the economy improve. However, for now, the BoJ maintains a cautious stance due to global and domestic economic uncertainties. Japan's economy may continue to grow with increased consumption and wages, but it still faces the challenge of deflation. The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently rising slightly due to the significant interest rate differential between Japan and the US. On the 4-hour chart, the USD/JPY pair is in an uptrend. The nearest support level is 156.50; if the price falls below this level, a slight correction may occur, but the overall trend remains bullish unless there are major changes from the BoJ or global factors. If the USD/JPY rate stays above the 156.50 support level, this could present a buying opportunity, with the target approaching the nearest resistance level at 157.67. If this level is broken, the pair could continue toward the next target of 158.00 or even 160.00.
by Alisa_Rokosz
USDJPY H1 I Bearish Breakout?Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our sell entry at 157.04, A bearish breakout. Our take profit will be at 156.22, which is a pullback support level. The stop loss will be placed at 157.80, which is a swing high level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Short
by FXCM
USDJPY: HTF DT ANALYSIS (1D)HIGH TIMEFRAME DOWNTREND ANALYSIS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Resistance: 161.03 (Major Resistance, distal) 158.33 (Major Resistance, proximal) These levels are aligned with previous rejection zones. 157.8650 (Sell Stoploss Zones) Support: 147.7718 (Strong pivot level from historical lows). 144.8898 and 144.1802 (Mid pivot and buy orders zone). Pivot Zones: 153.4900 (Sell limit identified) 149.7555 (Mid Pivot TP 2 target). Trend: The pair is in a downtrend as highlighted on the chart, with key resistance zones being tested. Pivot Highs and Lows: Pivot highs are aligning with bearish divergences, as seen in areas of DT (Double Top) confirmations. Pivot lows signal potential reversals near support levels, supported by UT (Upward Trend) signals. Volume and Risk Metrics: Volume around Resistance 158 shows diminishing upward momentum, increasing the likelihood of rejection. Risk Index: 0.01853 indicates manageable risk levels for short trades. Reward Index: -0.01521 signifies opportunities for improved reward setups on lower timeframes. PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT Bearish Scenario: Rejection from the 153-158 range offers significant downside probability toward 147.77 and 144.18. Bullish Recovery: A confirmed breakout above 158.04 with strong volume could invalidate the bearish outlook, targeting 160.00. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Macroeconomic Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained ultra-loose monetary policies, which contrasts with the U.S. Federal Reserve's higher interest rate stance. This divergence favors dollar strength. However, seasonal tendencies show that December often has corrective movements due to year-end profit-taking and reduced trading liquidity. Economic Data: Upcoming U.S. GDP and BoJ Monetary Policy Minutes could catalyze volatility. Watch for geopolitical developments impacting the Yen as a safe-haven currency. Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment is cautious. With the chart showing multiple sell zones and exhaustion signals Traders may wait for confirmation before heavy entries. TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS High-Risk Opportunities: Sell Entry: Stop Loss: Above 158.0416 157.06 (Sell Limit Order) 155.44 (Sell Stop Order 1) 153.49 (Sell Stop Order 2) Target: 147.84 (Major Support) Buy Entry: Entry: Near 144.1802 Stop Loss: Below 141.64
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
USDJPY new bullish for expect FX:USDJPY trend based analysis, we having in period from 1.12 - 9.12 ROUNDED BOTTOM pattern visible, price is make break of same and confirmation of same (yellow line) and its make short bullish push, currently price in consolidation, its on strong ex. zone 151.800 (violet line). What here expecting after todays and past events in this week, still looks like we will have strong USD and here exepcting to see new bullish push. SUP zone:151.450 RES zone:154.550, 155.050
Long
by DepaTrading
3
USD/JPY hits 5-mth high after BoJ holds ratesThe Japanese yen continues its rapid descent and is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.82, up 1.3% on the day. Earlier, the yen weakened to 157.14, its lowest level against the US dollar since July 22. The Bank of Japan didn't have any surprises up its sleeve on Thursday as it maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.25%. The BoJ has kept rates steady since July but has signaled that it intends to normalize policy and raise rates. The central bank has been guarded about the timing of a rate hike and there was some speculation that it might raise rates at Thursday's meeting. The decision to hold rates was not unanimous, with 8 members voting in favor and one member voting for a 25-basis point hike. The rate statement did not shed much light on the BoJ's plans but Governor Ueda said at his press conference that the BoJ could afford to move slowly on raising rates since underlying inflation was only increasing at a "moderate pace". The markets expect another rate hike in the first quarter of 2025. Ueda also noted that there was uncertainty over the policies of the  incoming Trump administration. Trump has declared he will impose tariffs on US trading partners, which could affect global inflation. Interestingly, the BoJ holds its next meeting on Jan. 24, a day after Trump takes office. The Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut was widely expected but the market was surprised by the Fed's updated rate-cut forecast. In September, the Fed projected four rate cuts in 2025 but this was halved to just two cuts at the Wednesday meeting. US stock markets were sharply lower in response but the US dollar shined and rose sharply on Wednesday against all the major currencies, including 0.85% against the yen. At his follow-up press conference, Fed Chair Powell said he was "very optimistic" about the strength of the US economy but he was less rosy about inflation, which has stalled above the Fed's 2% target. Powell said, "we have been moving sideways on 12-month inflation", a signal that the Fed may take a pause from its easing cycle until inflation resumes its downswing. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 155.38 and 155.92 and is putting pressure on resistance at 156.98 154.32 and 153.78 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDJPY Continues Consolidation Above Key Support!Dear Friends! USD/JPY is trading sideways around 154.00 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The pair was weighed down by Japanese comments and a softer risk-on tone. However, a fresh rally in the US Dollar limited the pair's losses ahead of the US November Retail Sales report. From a technical point of view, USDJPY remains in an uptrend with the trendline, EMAs and price channel still favoring buyers. In the short term, keep an eye on the upper limit of the channel, which could provide fresh upside momentum for USDJPY. Wishing you happy and profitable trading.
Long
by Trader-Briannnn